Aug 25, 2023 - Update on the Robotyne AO, Tokmak Axis

There is not a lot of information available after yesterdays flurry of frantic posts by Russians fighting off AFU armored columns of 80, 200 even 300 vehicles.

All I can report this morning is that the ruZZIans claim… pic.twitter.com/JSzY7Laewh

— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) August 25, 2023

I don't know about the cluster munitions. From what I can tell following people smarter than me, 1) there was a long process of demining that had to occur and 2) Ukraine has slowly but surely eked out artillery superiority as they attrition out the Russians. The combo of those…

— Heterodox Progressivism (@HProggy) August 25, 2023

Agreed. All of those factors start to slowly pile up and what looks like a stalemate can suddenly flip to one side dominating.

— Heterodox Progressivism (@HProggy) August 25, 2023

One night before Russia's full-scale invasion, I spoke w/Sean Penn in Kyiv. A piece of that conversation (0:57) is in the trailer for his forthcoming documentary "Superpower."

Penn has worked hard to highlight Ukrainians' incredible courage & I'm honored to be in his film. pic.twitter.com/b9H4Gca0a1

— Nolan Peterson (@nolanwpeterson) August 25, 2023

It appears that after Prigozhin’s assassination, Russia has started destroying graves of the Wagner mercenaries who died in Ukraine. And now, these war criminals have remembered about God. It's nice to see how self-destructive evil is. pic.twitter.com/7HTV8JFxEd

— Iryna Matviyishyn (@IMatviyishyn) August 25, 2023

sclaff said:

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It appears that after Prigozhin’s assassination, Russia has started destroying graves of the Wagner mercenaries who died in Ukraine. And now, these war criminals have remembered about God. It's nice to see how self-destructive evil is. pic.twitter.com/7HTV8JFxEd

— Iryna Matviyishyn (@IMatviyishyn) August 25, 2023

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Insane. Russia never ceases to surprise me.

English subtitles here https://t.co/BssDedxuPm

— Iryna Matviyishyn (@IMatviyishyn) August 25, 2023

PJYoung said:

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This is absolutely huge. Getting behind those Russian defensive lines in multiple spots allows Ukraine to collapse their rigid defences and allows for NATO style manoeuvre warfare with vehicles making artillery nearly redundant. I have also been hearing that RU has no reserves.

— Andrew (@Andrew06328390) August 24, 2023

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which is why many have been suggesting an armored thrust not directly towards Tokmak which is due southeast of Robotyne..

but to move southwest across village roads and come in behind the Russian defense in depth protecting Tokmak. you can move towards Berdiansk and then move due east to encircle several brigades and three trench lines.

heading southwest through Verbove gives you some cover and likely not as many minefields on village roads rather than heading southeast into the teeth of the Tokmak ring trench lines.

AgLA06 said:

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Something I've been wondering.

Whether it's patriotic bias or whatever, I'm sure a lot are like me assume the US has the best fighter pilots and training programs. How do these other countries training Uke F16 pilots stack up?

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Well they are mostly NATO squadrons so they train to the same levels-

my buddy in the USAF who flew for the D.C. ANG started in F-16 and went to Europe to train with Dutch and German F-16 pilots back in 06.

I get it. I just thought many like me grew up (rightly or wrongly) assuming we were better.

Germany never had F-16's

80sGeorge said:

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I bet they suck at carrier landings though.

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Probably don't get a lot of practice.

Just the French. Britain, Italy and Spain have carriers for F-35/AV-8B vertical landings

PJYoung said:

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A day late, but not a dollar short.

Happy Independence Day Ukraine

For those wondering:
We got behind Russian frontline, killed everyone in it, and then waited for friendly units to push the frontline.
Enemy Russian forces then ran towards us, thinking we were Russians.… pic.twitter.com/hGns7hCcJr

— Ryan O'Leary (@IhateTrenches) August 25, 2023

They were unarmed. We were yelling commands to stop & surrender. They ended up not listening and once they realized we weren't russisn tried to flee back toeards bunker & weapons.
None of them made it back to there

— Ryan O'Leary (@IhateTrenches) August 25, 2023

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Trying to run away after you've ran into your enemies trench...how stupid

Given the intense combat, video after video shows the Ukrainian soldiers with good morale. You can see determination and confidence in their eyes.

TXAggie2011 said:

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PJYoung said:

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A day late, but not a dollar short.

Happy Independence Day Ukraine

For those wondering:
We got behind Russian frontline, killed everyone in it, and then waited for friendly units to push the frontline.
Enemy Russian forces then ran towards us, thinking we were Russians.… pic.twitter.com/hGns7hCcJr

— Ryan O'Leary (@IhateTrenches) August 25, 2023

They were unarmed. We were yelling commands to stop & surrender. They ended up not listening and once they realized we weren't russisn tried to flee back toeards bunker & weapons.
None of them made it back to there

— Ryan O'Leary (@IhateTrenches) August 25, 2023

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Trying to run away after you've ran into your enemies trench...how stupid

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The first stupid mistake was to come reinforce the trench in front of you without a weapon.

TBH I think he was running from arty strikes or drone drops. His head was full of jellow, shell shocked from multiple arty or something explosive/concussive and just didn't find the relief he thought he was looking for; but it found him and he is better for it.

The latest on the intensifying fighting in the south.

Today's SITREP.

USA*** said:

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AgLA06 said:

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I get it. I just thought many like me grew up (rightly or wrongly) assuming we were better.

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It has been in my experience, with 28 years in uniform and 10 years as a civilian, in fighter/bomber training/operations as well as personally knowing and/or working directly with hundreds F-15, F-16, F-18 and F-35 pilots from multiple countries in Europe and the Far East that very few countries are our equal in individual pilots and NONE are better Air Forces on the whole.

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Outlier events do happen. Everybody has a bad day once in a while.

https://theaviationist.com/2014/05/02/cope-india-2004-results/

He wasn't trying to reinforce anything. The Ukes got behind their lines and hammer and anvelled them. He thought he was retreating to friendlies only to figure out they were dead and Ukes were waiting for him.

Burrus86 said:

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Given the intense combat, video after video shows the Ukrainian soldiers with good morale. You can see determination and confidence in their eyes.

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It was my understanding Ukraine has restricted battlefield posts from troops. Is this not true? If so we are only seeing favorable posts.

Please correct me if Ukraine allows all videos to be posted to social media.

AgLA06 said:

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He wasn't trying to reinforce anything. The Ukes got behind their lines and hammer and anvelled them. He thought he was retreating to friendlies only to figure out they were dead and Ukes were waiting for him.

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He meant reinforcing the front line he was coming from. Dude was running back from their forward trench without a weapon.

At this point why would the Ukrainians not have good morale. Everything seems to be falling their way lately.

Teslag said:

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At this point why would the Ukrainians not have good morale. Everything seems to be falling their way lately.

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You didn't address my point of censored media. Tactically this has always happened in wars. Can you agree that information coming from Ukraine is only what they want us to see?

But you responded to someone saying they see video after video of Ukrainians in good spirits. Even if it's all filtered, it's not stretch that it's probably indicative of their overall morale with how things are going now.

Not entirely sure if the Russian Bober FPV drone group meant to release this, but Russian confirmation that Ukrainian forces have made advances to the east of Robotyne over the past few days, setting up a position on the eastern flank of Novoprokopivka. https://t.co/7gn534Lbz5 pic.twitter.com/ohgJBMkkut

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 25, 2023

Quote:

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Heavy explosion after strike in Kakhovka

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/25-august-heavy-explosion-after-strike-in-kakhovka-

⚡️Media: Ukraine strikes Russian positions in Crimea, dozens of casualties reported.

The Ukrainian military, together with the Security Service of Ukraine, launched a drone strike against the 126th Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. There were dozens of casualties,…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 25, 2023

I'll share a few details about Tokmak-Robotyne axis, without elaborating details:

- Situation for russians worsened lately;
- They're frantically trying to prevent breakthrough;
- Claims about depleted russian reserves, reinforcements and forces for rotation are incorrect.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 25, 2023

In general - absolutely. However, the reinforcements and reserves I'm mentioning should not be underestimated, as I consider them to be among the most capable.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 25, 2023

Some people have being claiming that russia concentrated everything near Robotyne, hence they can't deploy reserves or rotate forces, which is incorrect, because they have forces for both.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 25, 2023

“You don’t understand the nature of this conflict,” Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, responded in one interaction with the Americans, a U.S. official recounted. “This is not counterinsurgency. This is Kursk.” https://t.co/m5SMn1hYID

— Thomas Gibbons-Neff (@Tmgneff) August 25, 2023

looks like its being reported that over 100 russian fire units are going to ukraine from the greeks. its reported they are all being transferred soon pic.twitter.com/bengcaR05W

— david D. (@secretsqrl123) August 25, 2023

Greece terminated the contract with Russia for technical support and maintenance of the Tor-M1 and Osa-AKM air defense systems. Greece has 21 Tor-M1 and 38 OSA-AK(M). It is possible an unknown amount will be supplied to Ukraine via third party countries. https://t.co/PLBZaVJixt

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 25, 2023