***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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docb
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9:27p, 7/29/23
AG
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/15d9eoi/an_unmanned_aerial_vehicle_crashed_near_moscow/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1
Nice explosion! Too bad they didn't send about a dozen of them.
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Eliminatus
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In reply to benchmark • 10:18p, 7/29/23
AG
benchmark said:
Not a Bot said:
OSINTdefender is a Russian-supported Twitter account?

This isn't a "Go Ukraine Go" thread. This is a war update thread. Russia making (alleged) advances are just as worthy to be posted here and should be.
Even ISW is taking note of the recent change in Russian information space. Blogger sourcing may not as reliable as it used to be.



Surprised it took them this long to clamp down and start at least partially controlling some of the more fringe milbloggers.

There absolutely has been an increase in Pro Russia posting lately on the more popular sites like Reddit and Twitter. There always is but there seems to be more coordination and subtlety this time around instead of the blatant and rampant goal tending of the early days. The OGs here will probably remember that one we got here on lil ole Texags those first few weeks in. If bad English, insane Russian goal tending and no idea about anything TAMU related is confirmation then yes, we have had at least one create an account here. But that was so easy to spot and staff was quick to pounce. Some of them have learned since then though.
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aunuwyn08
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In reply to lb3 • 10:58p, 7/29/23
AG
lb3 said:
Russian fan fiction:


I've never read an argument in my life where each and every premise was incorrect - until today.
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benchmark
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7:51a, 7/30/23
AG
Difficult to grasp all the ways Starlink may affect the planet over the next decade(s). Game changing technology.
NYT: Elon Musk's Unmatched Power in the Stars
Quote:
The technology found in forests, fields, villages and mounted on the roofs of military vehicles has given Ukraine's army a major advantage over Russian forces. It has enabled artillery teams, commanders and pilots to watch drone footage simultaneously while chatting online. The response times from finding a target to hitting it have been cut to about a minute from nearly 20 minutes, soldiers said.
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LMCane
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8:04a, 7/30/23
Rob's Speak the Truth episode from the last 24 hours showing Putin discussing how Poland is about to invade Belarus and stating it would be a direct attack on Russia.

so in case we didnt'e have enough things to worry about we can add that to the list.

Poland moving three brigades to the eastern border with Ukraine and belarus.

supposedly Baltic states trying to stop a new Wagner mercenary movement on Kaliningrad. 2-5000 wagnerites massing near Kaliningrad in northern Belarus.
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SamHou
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In reply to LMCane • 8:14a, 7/30/23
All Poland has to do is remind them that Wagner = Russia and that if the cross the border, NATO will do nasty things to Russia. Putin is "master strategist," but even he's not dumb enough to do this.
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Gilligan
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9:27a, 7/30/23
AG
Isn't Poland staging on the Belarus border the same as Wagner and Belarus staging on the Ukraine border?

There to give you something to think about and plan for just in case?
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Waffledynamics
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9:31a, 7/30/23
AG
Quote:
During night 3 civilian ships seem to have successfully challenged Russian threats to Black Sea navigation. Ams1, Sahin 2 and Yilmaz Kaptan sailed direct routes, openly advertising destination Ukraine over AIS. Their origins: Israel, Greece and Turkey/Georgia
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/30-july-during-night-3-civilian-ships-seem-to-have-successfully
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Waffledynamics
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9:32a, 7/30/23
AG
Quote:
New drones attack in Moscow overnight, damage at buildings in Moskva-city district
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/30-july-new-drones-attack-in-moscow-overnight-damage-at-buildings
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Not a Bot • 9:58a, 7/30/23
AG
Not a Bot said:
Poke_the_Bear said:
Complete russian propaganda from a russian government supported twitter account.

Do you have an agenda?
OSINTdefender is a Russian-supported Twitter account?

This isn't a "Go Ukraine Go" thread. This is a war update thread. Russia making (alleged) advances are just as worthy to be posted here and should be.
I don't think OSINTdefender is a Russian-supported Twitter account, but he has been less than reliable at times. I put him under "take with a grain of salt and/or corroborate with other sources", in my mind.

Some of these accounts had better information when they were closer to on-the-ground sources. IIRC, Special Kherson Cat, for example, was a resident of Kherson that fled and got information from people still there. Now that Kherson is liberated, that direct finger on the pulse isn't there.

Denys Davydov was also near Kyiv for a while, but left months ago. He seems to still have a lot of direct sources that are in various places in the war and tries to use as credible sources as he can.

Overall, it's good to try and not rely on one or two sources, and to corroborate when possible.
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aezmvp
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:16a, 7/30/23
Agree with this assessment. I lump him in with OSITechnical.
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docb
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11:50a, 7/30/23
AG
I wonder what the response would be if Russia attacked one of the grain ships flagged to another country. My guess is they will refrain.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to docb • 12:42p, 7/30/23
AG
docb said:
I wonder what the response would be if Russia attacked one of the grain ships flagged to another country. My guess is they will refrain.


Agree. Attacking a foreign flagged vessel is a good way to piss off a lot of countries. I think the African countries in particular would be especially unhappy because it would directly impact them and their ability to import grain. The soviets were big supporters of the independence movements in Africa, and the Russians still have some goodwill there because of it, but modern Russia isn't the Soviet Union. The African countries want the grain deal resumed and something worked out, and they're not going to buy any Russian lines about "needing" to attack foreign merchant vessels.
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AgLA06
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12:45p, 7/30/23
AG
Looks like the Ukes hit a very specific target in Moscow.


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Gordo14
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12:48p, 7/30/23


The point. Russia seems to be afraid that this attack will be successful
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AgLA06
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In reply to Gordo14 • 12:50p, 7/30/23
AG
Gordo14 said:
Claim #1,208,406 by him that Russia should use nukes. Just another day.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to AgLA06 • 1:43p, 7/30/23
AG
AgLA06 said:
Looks like the Ukes hit a very specific target in Moscow.




Anyone read Russian? See pictures in the telegram link below the liveuamap one.

Quote:
Documents blown from Ministry of Digital development in Moscow as result of drone attack


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/30-july-documents-blown-from-ministry-of-digital-development

https://t.me/rusbrief/141021
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sclaff
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2:35p, 7/30/23
AG
de lamentations of de women

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74OA
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2:40p, 7/30/23
AG
Ukraine warns of renewed Russian assault on its energy infrastructure in the fall and other notes.

UPDATES

African nations continue to press Putin to end the war and renew the grain deal.

GAMBLE
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74OA
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7:54p, 7/30/23
AG
Disguising fuel trucks as logging trucks.

CAMO
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pagerman @ work
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In reply to 74OA • 7:55p, 7/30/23
AG
74OA said:
Disguising fuel trucks as logging trucks.

CAMO

Ok; both burn.
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Gilligan
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9:07p, 7/30/23
AG
Been a long time since the Ukraine Volunteer posted. I'm glad he's still alive.
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Waffledynamics
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10:53p, 7/30/23
AG
Looks like Ukraine targeted Taganrog again. Posted 9 hours ago on LiveUAMap:

Quote:
Drone crashed in Daraganovka village near Taganrog, a vehicle and a house are on fire, one person injured
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/30-july-drone-crashed-in-daraganovka-village-near-taganrog


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74OA
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10:30a, 7/31/23
AG
Ukraine asking for long-term security pledges, grain storage attacks continue and other notes.

UPDATES
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74OA
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10:49a, 7/31/23
AG
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PJYoung
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10:55a, 7/31/23
AG
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74OA
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11:59a, 7/31/23
AG
Here's the latest ISW detailed campaign assessment. Map geeks will be happy.

ISW
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74OA
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1:33p, 7/31/23
AG
Ships appear to be using Romanian territorial waters to safely approach the Black Sea entrance to the Danube Canal shared by Romania and Ukraine. Apparently, the plan is to queue up just inside Romanian waters to await their turn to enter the canal and upload grain at canal ports?

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74OA
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2:19p, 7/31/23
AG
The recent strikes on Moscow serve to remind the insulated capitol elite that the war can touch them too and is not confined only to the unfortunates conscripted from Russia's distant cities and rural regions.

WAR IS COMING
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Rossticus
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In reply to 74OA • 2:53p, 7/31/23
This is how you do it. No matter how many times we've seen it over the decades people initially don't have the stomach to deal with the fact that Russia "probes with bayonets". The only way to create advantages is to have a stiff spine and call them on their threats. As long as you attempt to hedge, back down, or offer goodwill gestures they'll surge ahead and exploit perceived weakness.

If you tell them to eff off and show you're willing to back it up, they'll back down. That's why the perceived weakness of the west and the trepidation they initially projected when Russia began amassing troops encouraged Russia to green light the invasion. Western leaders have had no stomach for that type of "diplomacy" in recent years. Projection of strength and force moving forward are the only way, other than full capitulation, to bring this debacle to a somewhat timely conclusion, and the only way that preserves Ukraine's long term viability as an independent, self sufficient nation.
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AGS-R-TUFF
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In reply to 74OA • 5:26p, 7/31/23
AG
74OA said:
Ships appear to be using Romanian territorial waters to safely approach the Black Sea entrance to the Danube Canal shared by Romania and Ukraine. Apparently, the plan is to queue up just inside Romanian waters to await their turn to enter the canal and upload grain at canal ports?

Israeli ship to Russian blockade: "FAFO"
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agent-maroon
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In reply to AGS-R-TUFF • 7:13p, 7/31/23
AG
Quote:
Israeli ship to Russian blockade: "FAFO"
Say what you will about Israel, but you best be ready if you take them up on that challenge.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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txags92
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7:16p, 7/31/23
AG
Wouldn't surprise me a bit if they let an Israeli ship try first deliberately because the orcs know they don't want to tangle with them.
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docb
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8:46p, 7/31/23
AG
More drone attacks in Moscow tonight
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clobby
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8:57p, 7/31/23
AG
Is Ukraine acknowledging the drone attack inside Russia? Or are they Ukraine supporters inside of Russia? Or is it an inside job due to waning support of the war?
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