TXAggie2011 said:

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Quote:

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Every day the Russian milbloggers seem more comcerned about Ukrainian breakthrough in the South.

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There is a tendency for some of those Russian milbloggers to be fatalistic given how jaded they've become over the past year of losses and stalemate. So, while it is nice to hear, folks do have to remember where they are emotionally.

That said, I feel it is inevitable Ukraine will find their breakthrough. The screws are tightening; the interdictions are becoming more frequent, larger, and deeper behind Russian lines.

I'm personally worried less about Ukraine not finding a breakthrough, but what will happen after that. There will be a temptation, one imagines, for those forces which find the breakthrough to press deeper and deeper into occupied territory. To state the obvious, that leaves them vulnerable to encirclement or to just get pounded into oblivion, of course. I certainly have a feeling Ukraine could really concentrate power and find a breakthrough in the next couple of weeks but I'm not sure a horizontally "thin" incursion is sustainable.

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My military background is medical and logistics so I'm not sure what they should do here. Would the Russians have mined positions behind their lines to prevent a break through and attack from the rear?

Teslag said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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Quote:

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Every day the Russian milbloggers seem more comcerned about Ukrainian breakthrough in the South.

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There is a tendency for some of those Russian milbloggers to be fatalistic given how jaded they've become over the past year of losses and stalemate. So, while it is nice to hear, folks do have to remember where they are emotionally.

That said, I feel it is inevitable Ukraine will find their breakthrough. The screws are tightening; the interdictions are becoming more frequent, larger, and deeper behind Russian lines.

I'm personally worried less about Ukraine not finding a breakthrough, but what will happen after that. There will be a temptation, one imagines, for those forces which find the breakthrough to press deeper and deeper into occupied territory. To state the obvious, that leaves them vulnerable to encirclement or to just get pounded into oblivion, of course. I certainly have a feeling Ukraine could really concentrate power and find a breakthrough in the next couple of weeks but I'm not sure a horizontally "thin" incursion is sustainable.

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My military background is medical and logistics so I'm not sure what they should do here. Would the Russians have mined positions behind their lines to prevent a break through and attack from the rear?

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Key approaches and roads likely have mines either on them or cached nearby(ish) to be put on them. Depending on where you're talking about the terrain is pretty rough and there aren't a lot of north south roads in the area (even back roads) so it's not really that hard to predict where you'll need stuff like that for the logistics to support and advance. Plus with modern range finding you can do a pretty good job of spotting artillery in advance, premarking/preparing positions to fire from to attack those areas before moving away from counter battery range as much as possible.

AgLA06 said:

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Reading some of their communications is like reading an alien dialect. Makes my head hurt.

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English and Russian are not closely related languages and I'd imagine a lot of the translations you've seen are the more direct type. Words that have more distinction or nuance in Russian sometimes come out as terms that are unusual or uncommon in English. Add to it that this may simply be Google Translate or some other automated translation and it will come out sounding a bit strange.

Teslag said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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Quote:

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Every day the Russian milbloggers seem more comcerned about Ukrainian breakthrough in the South.

---

There is a tendency for some of those Russian milbloggers to be fatalistic given how jaded they've become over the past year of losses and stalemate. So, while it is nice to hear, folks do have to remember where they are emotionally.

That said, I feel it is inevitable Ukraine will find their breakthrough. The screws are tightening; the interdictions are becoming more frequent, larger, and deeper behind Russian lines.

I'm personally worried less about Ukraine not finding a breakthrough, but what will happen after that. There will be a temptation, one imagines, for those forces which find the breakthrough to press deeper and deeper into occupied territory. To state the obvious, that leaves them vulnerable to encirclement or to just get pounded into oblivion, of course. I certainly have a feeling Ukraine could really concentrate power and find a breakthrough in the next couple of weeks but I'm not sure a horizontally "thin" incursion is sustainable.

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My military background is medical and logistics so I'm not sure what they should do here. Would the Russians have mined positions behind their lines to prevent a break through and attack from the rear?

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The Ruskies could be do several of the following

1. Move forces from the area to deploy elsewhere.
2. They could be setting a trap making them think the area is vulnerable.
3. Local logistical problems.

Stuff like this is why you need good recon, Humans are sneaky sons a guns

There are a lot of good books out there but one of the better ones that had similar warfare to what is happening in Ukraine is The Clay Pigeons of St. Lo. where the Allies were advancing while the Germans were retreating. The Germans laid boobytraps, IEDs, mines, and had each defensive position they fled dialed in by artillery. When the Allies advanced they would be behind something like a hedgerow and the Germans would lay down effective artillery fire almost immediately

The book also goes into great detail about the troop advancements and both Ukraine and Russia have had similar issues. They have a breakthrough and one of their troop elements gets out too far and cannot be effectively supported. In fact Russia has done this a few times this month around Bahkmut.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1683604368094908418.html

The tiny Baltics are accelerating the pooling of their defense resources even as NATO increases its rotational forces in those countries. Thanks again, Vlad.

SMART

Just a preview until we get everything up and running and the hours of video footage approved. pic.twitter.com/hIw7wJvhQg

— Ryan O'Leary (@IhateTrenches) July 26, 2023

The ride is the worst part. Once dismounted and actually assaulting, it's pretty easy, to be honest. RU forces aren't used to aggression, speed, and a lot of maneuvering, so they get overwhelmed quite easily.
Avg time from dismount to getting into trenches is under 3 minutes

— Ryan O'Leary (@IhateTrenches) July 26, 2023

No humanity. They're orcs in every sense of the word.

The Taliban also did it so we would not be able to determine their causalties, I wouldn't claim them to be good humans. They just had more warfare common sense. Heck they martyred woman and children

Russia is different as they don't care about the enemy or their own troops.

Lots of evidence of a huge push with gains today in the South.

"The main thrust of Ukraine's nearly two-months-old counteroffensive is now underway in the country's southeast, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday"https://t.co/8zCiXMVSXj pic.twitter.com/XtepypHViO

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 26, 2023

Looks like push is to Tokmak and then on to Melitopol if successful enough.

P.U.T.U said:

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The Taliban also did it so we would not be able to determine their causalties, I wouldn't claim them to be good humans. They just had more warfare common sense. Heck they martyred woman and children

Russia is different as they don't care about the enemy or their own troops.

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That, but I would add its perhaps the one area where ISIS and the Taliban's hardcore religiousness led to a desirable result...removing their dead so they could have a proper burial.

Of course, ISIS also attacks Taliban burials because they have differing views on those practices. Very messy.

Very true since the hardcore Muslims believe someone must be buried within 24 hours

Wouldn't hurt if they could get Polohy and prevent the Russians from using the T-04-01 (East West major roadway) to hit the Uke flank.

There's a New York Times article just out, quoting US officials saying the main Ukrainian counterthrust is finally underway in the south. I can't get past the firewall to bring it here. Anyone else?

"U.S. Says Main Thrust of Ukraine's Counteroffensive Has Begun"

74OA said:

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There's a New York Times article just out, quoting US officials saying the main Ukrainian counterthrust is finally underway in the south. I can't get past the firewall to bring it here. Anyone else?

"U.S. Says Main Thrust of Ukraine's Counteroffensive Has Begun"

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Clicking on the link in the tweet from Rob Lee that Gordo14 posted above worked for me.

txags92 said:

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74OA said:

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There's a New York Times article just out, quoting US officials saying the main Ukrainian counterthrust is finally underway in the south. I can't get past the firewall to bring it here. Anyone else?

"U.S. Says Main Thrust of Ukraine's Counteroffensive Has Begun"

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Clicking on the link in the tweet from Rob Lee that Gordo14 posted above worked for me.

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Here we go. SITREP

74OA said:

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txags92 said:

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74OA said:

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There's a New York Times article just out, quoting US officials saying the main Ukrainian counterthrust is finally underway in the south. I can't get past the firewall to bring it here. Anyone else?

"U.S. Says Main Thrust of Ukraine's Counteroffensive Has Begun"

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Clicking on the link in the tweet from Rob Lee that Gordo14 posted above worked for me.

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Here we go. SITREP

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Reads like disinfo to me but to what purpose I have no idea and well above my pay grade.

ISW seems to be picking up on a southern Uk breakthrough too. Looks like each of Uk and Ru are experiencing relative success in different areas at the moment.

2/ Russian sources, including the Russian MoD and several prominent milbloggers, claimed that Ukrainian forces launched an intense frontal assault towards #Robotyne (10km south of #Orikhiv) and broke through Russian defensive positions northeast of the settlement.

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 27, 2023

4/ #Russian sources provided a wide range of diverging claims as to the scale of both the attack and resulting #Ukrainian losses, indicating that the actual results and Ukrainian losses remain unclear. https://t.co/LBQc1biLAz

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 27, 2023

6/ One prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces used over 80 armored vehicles, and other milbloggers more conservatively claimed that the number was closer to between 30 and 40.

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 27, 2023

8/ The disagreement amongst several prominent Russian sources indicates that the situation remains less than clear and that Ukrainian forces may have been more successful than assessed by Russian commentators. https://t.co/LBQc1biLAz

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 27, 2023

There's another interesting account from a Russian officer, sorry long post again, but he tells what led to Ukrainian success in Klischiivka, including Russia bringing up unprepared troops from various units into an area, describing them as disorganised. He also mentions… pic.twitter.com/tg6W68ZvPw

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) July 26, 2023

Stories have been coming oiut for a few weeks about the Russians having ot use instrcutors to fly missions due to a pilot shortage. This event tends to confirm that. There has also been a high rate of KA52s lost in combat as Russian tried to get as many as possible in air in the… https://t.co/quonOfWARz

— Randy Mott (@randymot4) July 26, 2023

PJYoung said:

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Stories have been coming oiut for a few weeks about the Russians having ot use instrcutors to fly missions due to a pilot shortage. This event tends to confirm that. There has also been a high rate of KA52s lost in combat as Russian tried to get as many as possible in air in the… https://t.co/quonOfWARz

— Randy Mott (@randymot4) July 26, 2023

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So Ukraine has a ton of pilots ready to fly f-16's but Russia is running short of pilots?

From a tactical viewpoint, does this pass the smell test?

A greater population who hasn't exerted air control over an inferior population is having trouble finding pilots?

10thYrSr said:

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PJYoung said:

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Stories have been coming oiut for a few weeks about the Russians having ot use instrcutors to fly missions due to a pilot shortage. This event tends to confirm that. There has also been a high rate of KA52s lost in combat as Russian tried to get as many as possible in air in the… https://t.co/quonOfWARz

— Randy Mott (@randymot4) July 26, 2023

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So Ukraine has a ton of pilots ready to fly f-16's but Russia is running short of pilots?

From a tactical viewpoint, does this pass the smell test?

A greater population who hasn't exerted air control over an inferior population is having trouble finding pilots?

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This is a great question which I'd like to look more into. Does it have to do with pilot quality/flight hours? Have a lot of their experienced pilots been shot down? Has their training pipeline been insufficient compared to the supply of planes? Of course, there's also the possibility that the Russian pilot shortage is a fiction. Several possibilities.

10thYrSr said:

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PJYoung said:

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Stories have been coming oiut for a few weeks about the Russians having ot use instrcutors to fly missions due to a pilot shortage. This event tends to confirm that. There has also been a high rate of KA52s lost in combat as Russian tried to get as many as possible in air in the… https://t.co/quonOfWARz

— Randy Mott (@randymot4) July 26, 2023

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So Ukraine has a ton of pilots ready to fly f-16's but Russia is running short of pilots?

From a tactical viewpoint, does this pass the smell test?

A greater population who hasn't exerted air control over an inferior population is having trouble finding pilots?

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The question isn't population, it's available aircraft and resources. It's plausible.

I can't speak for russian supply of pilots but all my friends have been stating we have our own issues filling and keeping filled pilot slots.

PJYoung said:

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Just a preview until we get everything up and running and the hours of video footage approved. pic.twitter.com/hIw7wJvhQg

— Ryan O'Leary (@IhateTrenches) July 26, 2023

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Been wondering what the International Legion has been up to and the role of international fighters in general during this phase of the war. Makes sense about the use of them being essentially assault troops. There are actually very few military formations that engender this kind of tactic as a baseline fighting doctrine….and it's those sort of people who find themselves in this type of international force.

10thYrSr said:

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aunuwyn08 said:

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Just because you have a lot of people doesn't mean you have a lot of qualified and trained combat aviators.

It takes a lot of flight hours and money to train and sustain a pilot cadre, and even we are cutting corners on aviator training to support more strategically important fiscal priorities.

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But the Russians still have enough pilots that they can still do this:
https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2023/02/14/air-force-jets-intercept-russian-aircraft-near-alaska/

So they are doing just fine.

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I doubt Russia is going to pull essential territorial pilots that protect the motherland to fight in Ukraine.. those squadrons that have special protection duties are probably not being touched I would think …they are also prob not protecting borders with attack helicopters.. those guys are flying their best jets I imagine .. just my 2 cents

smstork1007 said:

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I clearly stated that I DID NOT KNOW if russia was having problems fielding Helicopter pilots or not. But I stand by what I said, your article does NOTHING to prove anything, other than 4 months ago they had pilots flying JET aircraft near the US border. And just so we are clear on this point, I doubt very seriously Russia has any pilots that fly both, hell I doubt we have many if any. Hope that helps to explain to why your article in this discussion was worthless.

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KA-52 loss is mentioned AFTER the pilot loss claims in the tweet. It didn't state there was a loss in KA-52 pilots.

ETA: the post DID cite a KA-52 shoot down, which the tweet was referencing. My apologies and I was wrong in this regard.