Is this not the correct armement for the Karakurt-Class Corvettes?

• 1 Pantsir-M CIWS with Hermes-K missiles or
• 1 3M89 Palash/ Palma CIWS with Sosna-R missiles (4+4 SAM in total 8 plus under reload units)
• or 2 AK-630M-2 CIWS (on first 2 vessels)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karakurt-class_corvette

Progress has been very slow and very costly. They will push forward a kilometer, get counterattacked, rinse repeat. Russia is actually making territorial gains in the northeast. Ukraine is very slowly making gains across the rest of the front. The minefields (more than anything) are slowing them down.

AgLA06 said:

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Is this not the correct armement for the Karakurt-Class Corvettes?

• 1 Pantsir-M CIWS with Hermes-K missiles or
• 1 3M89 Palash/ Palma CIWS with Sosna-R missiles (4+4 SAM in total 8 plus under reload units)
• or 2 AK-630M-2 CIWS (on first 2 vessels)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karakurt-class_corvette

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Yup but they're also fielding their Project 22160 class ships which didn't have any on board, they're supposed to field a number of modular packages but weren't native and so they first used manpads and then did this:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-black-sea-warship-now-equipped-with-ground-based-sam-system

RONA Ag said:

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Can someone give a brief synopsis on how the offensive is going? Trying to clean information from all the posts but having difficulty tracking. Sounds like Ukraine is slowly pushing Russia out of previously occupied territory headwind southeast toward the Sea of Azov and has made more progress than originally projected. Fair to say?

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They are making progress but it's certainly slower than originally predicted, much of it has to do with having no air support while conserving their reserves and the Russians having a long time to dig in with mines, trenches and pre-aimed artillery.

Russian losses are mounting though and it is thought that a breakthrough is coming if the West doesn't lose their nerve.

An F16 should be able to carry a couple of harpoons. That would vastly increase their range.

My thinking is that with an increased number of aircraft, F16s specifically, Ukraine will be able to initially focus on a drastic increase in SEAD operations, with greater effectiveness than that offered by MiG-29s.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/new-f-16s-armed-with-harm-anti-radiation-missile-can-seriously-new/

This will lead to greater freedom of operation by air support in offensive areas, thereby creating increased opportunities for forward ground forces. I'd assume that AGM-88s would be relatively willingly supplied by the US and some other NATO partners.

MouthBQ98 said:

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An F16 should be able to carry a couple of harpoons. That would vastly increase their range.

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Not USAF F-16s. Only Greece and Turkey in NATO have modified their F-16s for the Harpoon and they aren't giving any up. F-16s donated to Ukraine will have to be similarly modified.

HARPOON

MouthBQ98 said:

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An F16 should be able to carry a couple of harpoons. That would vastly increase their range.

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The SLAM-ER would be a better option for this but we've already given the Ukes some Harpoons. Those are probably the land based variants and the air launched ones I'm not sure how hard it would be to put Harpoons on them. I think some NATO countries have put them on 16s (maybe the Dutch and the Spanish?) but it's not something the US does a ton of to my knowledge with the 16s.

Go Wild Weasels go!

This seems to be the expectation for the F16s.

"F-16s likely will not grant Ukraine air superiority, but they will facilitate the defense of their air space."

The premise is F16s will be shot down by Russian fighters before they can see them on radar. However, F16s can be better used as a second layer to defend Uke cities from Russian missiles.

https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/05/what-f-16s-will-and-wont-do-for-ukraine.html

Supposedly they aren't using HARMS very much anymore because Russian fighters were shooting them down from further distances than Uke fighters can see or shoot. F16s aren't any different.

IAEA confirms Russia is planting mines around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and other miscellaneous notes.

UPDATES

I'm wondering if the following advantage ( which MiGs lack) would allow for greater effectiveness than with MiG launched HARMs and help minimize shoot downs from the current rate. Maybe, maybe not.

"Utilizing the advanced radar receivers of the F-16 or utilizing a dedicated under-fuselage pod specifically designed to assist HARMs, pilots gain the ability to precisely pinpoint the location of Russian air-defense batteries just moments before launching the missile.

This tactical advantage leaves the batteries little time to react or reposition themselves effectively. Axe further emphasizes that with accurate HARM strikes, Ukrainian forces could finally effectively suppress Russian surface-to-air missile batteries across a significant stretch of the front line. "

AgLA06 said:

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This seems to be the expectation for the F16s.

"F-16s likely will not grant Ukraine air superiority, but they will facilitate the defense of their air space."

The premise is F16s will be shot down by Russian fighters before they can see them on radar. However, F16s can be better used as a second layer to defend Uke cities from Russian missiles.

https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/05/what-f-16s-will-and-wont-do-for-ukraine.html

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Well the 16 in an air defense role was always accompanied by the expectation of AWACs control, which obviously Ukraine won't have. There is a reason the 15 had that massive freaking radar in the nose.

No Pentagon plans to send assets to Black Sea over collapsed grain deal.

NAVY

Russia spent like 8 months taking it. Ukraine looking to retake it in less than 3.

74OA said:

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Ukraine close to retaking Bakhmut and other updates.

Today's SITREP.

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Thanks for the link. Excellent news.

Russian Forces along this Section of the Frontline have now managed to Advance between 15-18km and are slowly pushing towards the Oskil River.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 25, 2023

AgLA06 said:

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This seems to be the expectation for the F16s.

"F-16s likely will not grant Ukraine air superiority, but they will facilitate the defense of their air space."

The premise is F16s will be shot down by Russian fighters before they can see them on radar. However, F16s can be better used as a second layer to defend Uke cities from Russian missiles.

https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/05/what-f-16s-will-and-wont-do-for-ukraine.html

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Great link .. although the F-16 isn't the be all answer it has a few main capabilities that will really aid Ukraine, the article says JASAMS are essentially like the Storm Shadow missiles and even the ATACMS and that the US has plenty of JSAMS they could use .. this means Crimea targets (ammo dumps, bridges , rail ways , troops, fuel depots, etc etc) would/could get decimated with the F16s.. Ukraine could essentially destroy the Russians in Crimea without sending any troups .. this will be fun to track once they start using them

Hoping this is more a battle of the bulge type moment and the Ukrainians can contain and push back these elements.

In lieu of a stream tonight, here is a short thread.

Ukraine's situation north of Kreminna has deteriorated, this is due to a troop rotation that left inexperienced brigades in charge of a long stretch of front line, where Russia immediately capitalized. pic.twitter.com/jug2tLcllz

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) July 26, 2023

⚡️Interesting information! A 🇷🇺Russian military blogger who has a connection with the Russian aviation writes that today the Russian attack helicopter Ka-52 "Alligator" was shot down by three missiles from the 🇬🇧British Stormer air defense system. Both pilots died (one of them is… pic.twitter.com/E66ulw9s2Q

— 🇺🇦Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) July 25, 2023

There were many positing that the Ukes had many brigades of Western equipment waiting behind the lines for a breakout

wouldn't it be the perfect place to now encircle the bulge in the line created by the Russian advance west of Kremina?!

if that doesn't happen and the Russkies continue advancing along the Oskil, it would seem the Ukes really are lacking any counter-punch reserve. It's more important to defend the area southeast of Kharkiv than capture two additional fields south of Zaporizhe.

aezmvp said:

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AgLA06 said:

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This seems to be the expectation for the F16s.

"F-16s likely will not grant Ukraine air superiority, but they will facilitate the defense of their air space."

The premise is F16s will be shot down by Russian fighters before they can see them on radar. However, F16s can be better used as a second layer to defend Uke cities from Russian missiles.

https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/05/what-f-16s-will-and-wont-do-for-ukraine.html

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Well the 16 in an air defense role was always accompanied by the expectation of AWACs control, which obviously Ukraine won't have. There is a reason the 15 had that massive freaking radar in the nose.

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I imagine we'd be flying multiple AWACS along the borders proving air coverage as best we could. From what I found the public knowledge is they can see up to 400 nautical miles which means they can likely see even farther.

That being said, that would appear to only give enough coverage for the west half of Ukraine.

I'm not sure that we'll be doing air control for Ukraine. That would surprise me quite a bit.

The US and UK have had AWACS in the air with transponders on. They tend to stay over Poland or international waters but they are there likely to provide intel to Ukraine.

P.U.T.U said:

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The US and UK have had AWACS in the air with transponders on. They tend to stay over Poland or international waters but they are there likely to provide intel to Ukraine.

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Yeah but would they provide targeting data and C&C like intercept vectors etc.? I think that might be a bit much. Maybe that's a fine line b/c of all the intel we are sharing but if I was Russia I'd be pretty pissed over that.

Your guess is as good as mine and we will likely never know. I would imagine we are helping Ukraine ID HVTs and fire locations as you have seen some pretty fancy intelligence shots in the background of some Ukraine C&C centers.

Every day the Russian milbloggers seem more comcerned about Ukrainian breakthrough in the South.

More doom and gloom from Russian sources on the prospects of the Ukrainian counteroffensive - once again mentioning the use of GMLRS as precision counter-battery fire to snipe individual Russian artillery pieces. https://t.co/pj5rpfEjxa

— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) July 26, 2023

Also interesting

It is possible Ukraine's reserve 10th Corps is starting to take over (or commit more of its forces) for 9th Corps, which was responsible for the beginning of the counteroffensive in Orikhiv. https://t.co/Iszah7pIzQ

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 26, 2023

Reading some of their communications is like reading an alien dialect. Makes my head hurt.

Quote:

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Every day the Russian milbloggers seem more comcerned about Ukrainian breakthrough in the South.

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There is a tendency for some of those Russian milbloggers to be fatalistic given how jaded they've become over the past year of losses and stalemate. So, while it is nice to hear, folks do have to remember where they are emotionally.

That said, I feel it is inevitable Ukraine will find their breakthrough. The screws are tightening; the interdictions are becoming more frequent, larger, and deeper behind Russian lines.

I'm personally worried less about Ukraine not finding a breakthrough, but what will happen after that. There will be a temptation, one imagines, for those forces which find the breakthrough to press deeper and deeper into occupied territory. To state the obvious, that leaves them vulnerable to encirclement or to just get pounded into oblivion, of course. I certainly have a feeling Ukraine could really concentrate power and find a breakthrough in the next couple of weeks but I'm not sure a horizontally "thin" incursion is sustainable.

That's why they're holding back so many reserves. The point is to flood them into a breakthrough.

AgLA06 said:

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Reading some of their communications is like reading an alien dialect. Makes my head hurt.

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I think a lot of that is just the different verbal style of Slavic languages