74OA said:

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AgLA06 said:

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If I remember correctly communication got confused in the fog of battle. They thought they were asked to confirm their coordinates to ensure they wouldn't be hit and those coordinates were instead used to target.

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Mistakes under stress are inevitable. I was just pointing out that the bombs didn't fly off target on their own.

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Is this the one where the F-14's asked for them to repeat coordinates and they gave them their own coordinates thinking the Tomcats were wanting to verify where they were?

JB!98 said:

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74OA said:

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AgLA06 said:

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If I remember correctly communication got confused in the fog of battle. They thought they were asked to confirm their coordinates to ensure they wouldn't be hit and those coordinates were instead used to target.

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Mistakes under stress are inevitable. I was just pointing out that the bombs didn't fly off target on their own.

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Is this the one where the F-14's asked for them to repeat coordinates and they gave them their own coordinates thinking the Tomcats were wanting to verify where they were?

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See the link I posted near the bottom of the previous page. It's all I know about it.

That is correct sir, ODA 595 also had the same thing happen to the 2 weeks before I believe. They JTAC/CCT didn't have the GPS calibrated correctly and it was a few hundred meters off. They changed SOPs and also started working on different technologies so danger close bombs like this were more accurate.

Russia doesn't care if a bomb misses and kills their own guys, they will just fire another one. Hence why their stuff has a range around 10-30 meters while ours is 1-3 meters.

Rybar is reporting that Russian Forces have Exploited their “Breakthrough” in the Luhansk and Kharkiv Region by more than 7km now, with Airborne Elements reported to have Crossed the Zherebets River and Occupied a number of High-Grounds on the West Bank; there are also reports… pic.twitter.com/DQufieeNKa

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 23, 2023

Ukrainian Officials are reporting that Russian Forces have begun an Offensive towards the Oskil River in the Northern Kharkiv Region with some Advances having been made up to 5km; they further state that Russian Forces appear to have a Major Artillery Advantage along this Front. pic.twitter.com/IrAspeb4Uo

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 23, 2023

Per Putin: "The Wagner guys have started to stress us. They want to go west. 'Let's go on a trip to Warsaw and Rzeszow'," he was quoted as saying.


Wagner Troops In Belarus 'Want To Go West' Into Poland, Lukashenka Quips During Meeting With Putin (rferl.org)

Rzeszow is the main US logistics base in Poland for shipping gear into the Ukraine...the 101st is there.

Suddenly, Lukashenka's the big man after supposedly talking Wagner out of its mutiny.

He survives so long as his talk services Putin's walk.

Zero chance in ever. Period. Lol.

japantiger said:

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Per Putin: "The Wagner guys have started to stress us. They want to go west. 'Let's go on a trip to Warsaw and Rzeszow'," he was quoted as saying.


Wagner Troops In Belarus 'Want To Go West' Into Poland, Lukashenka Quips During Meeting With Putin (rferl.org)

Rzeszow is the main US logistics base in Poland for shipping gear into the Ukraine...the 101st is there.

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I guess that maybe gets him something domestically for talking big? It gets nothing but laughter from NATO.

japantiger said:

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Per Putin: "The Wagner guys have started to stress us. They want to go west. 'Let's go on a trip to Warsaw and Rzeszow'," he was quoted as saying.


Wagner Troops In Belarus 'Want To Go West' Into Poland, Lukashenka Quips During Meeting With Putin (rferl.org)

Rzeszow is the main US logistics base in Poland for shipping gear into the Ukraine...the 101st is there.

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That's an excellent way to get killed

Rossticus said:

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To be fair, Poland wouldn't need NATO help to kick the crap out of Wagner and Belarus.

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Poland wants them, no, begs them, to try.

Curious. It isn't reflected on DeepState's map yet, if true.

https://deepstatemap.live/en#10/49.2539/37.9990

The MON-200 is a 25kg mine filled with roughly 12kg of high explosive and 900 steel rods.

It has a lethal range of 200m.https://t.co/ib8Z6Xr39x pic.twitter.com/wu2AYD1PNJ

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 25, 2023

Here’s a cutaway of the MON-100, a slightly smaller version, showing the explosive sandwiched behind the layer of steel rods. pic.twitter.com/doShUWikwS

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 25, 2023

Vladimir Putin has quietly raised the upper age limit for Russian military participation

Men over age 60 can now be conscripted and senior officers can be kept in reserve up to age 65

Stealth mobilization takes on new forms

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) July 24, 2023

Rossticus said:

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Vladimir Putin has quietly raised the upper age limit for Russian military participation

Men over age 60 can now be conscripted and senior officers can be kept in reserve up to age 65

Stealth mobilization takes on new forms

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) July 24, 2023

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It's hard to imagine a guy who finished his conscription service in 1983-84 as adding a whole lot to the strength of your fighting force in Ukraine. Might keep vehicles moving and tires from rotting in spots though.

DCPD158 said:

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Rossticus said:

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To be fair, Poland wouldn't need NATO help to kick the crap out of Wagner and Belarus.

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Poland wants them, no, begs them, to try.

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New trenches being built.

Reporting From Ukraine made the comment many are mined dummy trenches … a variation of the technique used by the Ukrainians in Bakhmut of mining buildings and exploding them when occupied by the orcs

Near Lysychansk (Luhansk Oblast), Russian forces added new trenches and barriers along roads leading toward the city. (2/4) pic.twitter.com/t4wjynRm6p

— Brady Africk (@bradyafr) July 22, 2023

Check out an interactive map and satellite imagery of Russia's defenses in and around Ukraine at the link below. (4/4) https://t.co/JGlYbCrrUE

— Brady Africk (@bradyafr) July 22, 2023

3:00 minutes in, addresses orc activity in the Kharkiv region

This is the "100,000 troop / 900 tank" operation ballyhooed last week

Felt very safe when I dropped some stuff off there last fall.

EU stepping up to move Ukraine's grain overland to market.

RAIL

Gordo14 said:

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Russian sources continue to be far more bullish on the performance of the Ukrainian counteroffensive than most Western commentators.

Key point in this extract... "if the West does not abandon Ukraine again... one can expect breakthroughs on the (Russian) front..." https://t.co/XaeaL5b02a

— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) July 25, 2023

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That's probably for a couple of reasons.

• They are comparing it to their capabilities and the recent performance of the supposed #2 military in the world.
• Russian sources see first hand what the shaping / attrition operations are doing to their forces.
• There's a lot more at stake for Russia than some basement internet warrior in the US.
• According to the live maps there really isn't much to stop them after they have a major break through.

I still think it's pretty impressive they've held their own and been able to launch successful offensives to take back land without any real air force or navy regardless of what they've been supplied. Hell, the've been more successful than the French have been in the last 150 years.

If they can hold the line and continue to attrit Russia until F-16s arrive, I like their eventual chances at serious breakthroughs and routs along the front. Even if, as expected, they're only using their new aircraft as bomb trucks, they should be able to really begin to turn the screws at that point.

AgLA06 said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Russian sources continue to be far more bullish on the performance of the Ukrainian counteroffensive than most Western commentators.

Key point in this extract... "if the West does not abandon Ukraine again... one can expect breakthroughs on the (Russian) front..." https://t.co/XaeaL5b02a

— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) July 25, 2023

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That's probably for a couple of reasons.

• They are comparing it to their capabilities and the recent performance of the supposed #2 military in the world.
• Russian sources see first hand what the shaping / attrition operations are doing to their forces.
• There's a lot more at stake for Russia than some basement internet warrior in the US.
• According to the live maps there really isn't much to stop them after they have a major break through.

I still think it's pretty impressive they've held their own and been able to launch successful offensives to take back land without any real air force or navy regardless of what they've been supplied. Hell, the've been more successful than the French have been in the last 150 years.

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Oh I agree. I'm just pointing out for everybody sitting halfway across the world looking claiming that the counteroffensive is over based on that one video that the beginning... Russian Milbloggers continue to disagree with your assessment.

Rossticus said:

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If they can hold the line and continue to attrit Russia until F-16s arrive, I like their eventual chances at serious breakthroughs and routs along the front. Even if, as expected, they're only using their new aircraft as bomb trucks, they should be able to really begin to turn the screws at that point.

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They have to gain air superiority in offensive areas ( neutralize SAMs) first.

I'm still worried F-16s will be a lot like the first week of the armor offensive. While I imagine Uke pilots will be better than the Russian counterparts, the SU35 doesn't have to dog fight with it's stand off capability to keep F16s out of the fight.

I almost think it would wise to focus them on the black sea.

I tend to agree. I don't expect dramatic results like air superiority or actual CAS integrated with ground maneuver. Russia will still have a lot of SAMs and advantages in fighters. It should make Russia have to account for a lot of strike possibilities though.

I think that depends entirely on the munitions that go with those falcons. I wouldn't want to take a 16 into Sevastopol air space without a dedicated multi-week campaign to take out their pickets and harm the hell out of their air-defense. Those would be difficult missions requiring a lot of probably NATO planned strike missions that I would want my guys planned and trained on.

This isn't Ace Combat where you can send these fighters into extremely hostile airspace and just expect them to take out a dozen targets each. I think you're likely to see them used to get stand off and lobbed munitions with a supporting BARCAP hitting targets that are either known or laser designated by drone or infantry / SOF.

Fresh notes about the naval war going on off of Ukraine's coast.

BLACK SEA

It also depends which generation radar, EW and targeting system are installed in the delivered F-16s.

Without something reasonably current, they'll just be a prettier MIG-29.

74OA said:

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It also depends which generation radar, EW and targeting system are installed in the delivered F-16s.

Without something reasonably current, they'll just be a prettier MIG-29.

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Absolutely correct. From what you can tell in the OSINT stuff out there Russia is running 2-3 rings of light patrol ships and corvettes with some probably off the books ships that have man pads or machine guns for spotting USVs/drones. I would be very suspicious of ANYTHING afloat once those 16s get delivered West of Crimea. There's obviously a long history of disguised merchantmen going back thousands of years, and the Russians are no strangers to this. (We have done it too back to before the founding so w/e.)

I can think of several operational concepts for creating openings to hit the Russian Navy in Sevastopol and if you watch things carefully you'll see that the Ukes are already using USV and air drones to execute combined attacks on the port now. I am 100% certain that when they're doing that there is real time observation on those attacks for future targeting info. If you check the maritime traffic there is a big empty space in the north western Black Sea that is most assuredly not empty. Hell I wouldn't run AIS as a trawler out there either.

Speaking of which it still astounds me that the Russians built some of their newest corvettes without native anti-air missiles on board. Strapping a TOR to your flight deck is bananas.

Can someone give a brief synopsis on how the offensive is going? Trying to clean information from all the posts but having difficulty tracking. Sounds like Ukraine is slowly pushing Russia out of previously occupied territory headwind southeast toward the Sea of Azov and has made more progress than originally projected. Fair to say?

As if disarming mines on dry land isn't difficult and dangerous enough.

SEA MINES

RONA Ag said:

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Can someone give a brief synopsis on how the offensive is going? Trying to clean information from all the posts but having difficulty tracking. Sounds like Ukraine is slowly pushing Russia out of previously occupied territory headwind southeast toward the Sea of Azov and has made more progress than originally projected. Fair to say?

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SITREP