Waffledynamics said:

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If those are conditions, then Russia must value those things. That may mean the sanctions are having an effect indeed.

Odesa needs better air defense as a middle finger and a safeguard for grain supplies.

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Exactly my thought. Russia is feeling the pinch. Finally.

SamHou said:

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Would be nice if NATO used a couple destroyers to escort grain ships and issued a statement that if any NATO ships are harmed due to mines or otherwise, it's considered an act of war

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You favor escalation?

LMCane said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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For anyone interested in INF ops this 12 minute vid of very difficult raid on orc trench is outstanding. Well executed OP Order. Has it all: preplanning, rehearsal, leadership, violence of action, real time intel, coms, coordination's, resupply, SSSSS, AAR....even fear/ hesitation overcome by leadership.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/153r3o3/english_subtitles_soldiers_from_the_3rd/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

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That demonstrates a very high proficiency in combat arms. Good tactics, communication, and training.

The ultimate problem however, is that there is no way that Ukraine can replicate the same thing for the OTHER 500 similar entrenchments along the front.

It's never a great idea to have a numerically inferior force involved in man to man trench fighting against a numerically superior force.

the Ukes have got to figure out a way to get mobile armored warfare working in their favor- or this war is going to remain stagnant ad infinitum.

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Well the mines are problematic and getting worse as they rake back more of their land. Heres 5 more lost in the last days same spot. Loss of life unknown.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/154l6zx/ukrainian_armor_under_attack_in_the_ugledar/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1

As Rumsfeld said you go to war with what you have and this what the Ukes are doing and if appears they intend to keep liberating land by any means for as long as it takes.

On the flip side we know russia is hurting both economically and the destruction of their military. As the Ukes are storming trenches they are also destroying assets. I think 5 T90s destroyed in the last fee days. 78% loss of wagner probably same or worse across regular orc units. This is not sustainable.

RogerEnright said:

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SamHou said:

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Would be nice if NATO used a couple destroyers to escort grain ships and issued a statement that if any NATO ships are harmed due to mines or otherwise, it's considered an act of war

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You favor escalation?

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At the very least, we need to get in front of this food shortage narrative to blame the Russians.

We should start up our external (third world) propaganda machine and make sure that the countries most likely to be impacted by food insecurity associate it with Russia and the attacks on grain silos in Ukraine. Ensure that the narrative is already pervasive and it is easier for the leadership in those countries tag along to blaming the Russians before another Arab Spring or other revolution happens.

Both sides are fighting with tactics that are not sustainable. Ukraine keeps pushing forward and getting vehicles knocked out by mines while Russia's are getting knocked out by drones and artillery. The US is sending 165 recovery type vehicles for a reason, they are hitting a lot of dang mines and keep pushing forward.

I have watched Top Gear, they need a bunch of Toyota Hilux's. Dang things just keep running /sarcasm

ABATTBQ11 said:

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GAC06 said:

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More Bradleys is obvious, but the Strykers are interesting. We've seen two (or three?) extra allocations of Strykers after the large initial batch but I haven't seen any evidence of losses or combat use at all so far

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There are several battalions still being held in reserve. The strykers and a lot of Bradleys are assigned to those

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At this point, I don't believe they are holding back some massive strike force. Especially not given the volume of equipment losses being reported from multiple sources. Operation Quicksilver.

SamHou said:

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RogerEnright said:

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SamHou said:

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Would be nice if NATO used a couple destroyers to escort grain ships and issued a statement that if any NATO ships are harmed due to mines or otherwise, it's considered an act of war

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You favor escalation?

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I favor not allowing people to starve and not allowing Ukraine's economy to be choked.
Won't escalate. One lesson from this conflict is that Putin is all bark when it comes to threats and red lines with NATO.

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This. After all the West has done to support Ukraine, we've seen very little in the form of escalation beyond words and saber rattling. While all actions require careful examination of COAs and consequences, we should not approach escalation from a perspective of fear. In fact, escalation should be the key concern / fear of Moscow. Keep those ports open. It is a morally righteous position.

NoVAag91 said:

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SamHou said:

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I favor not allowing people to starve and not allowing Ukraine's economy to be choked.
Won't escalate. One lesson from this conflict is that Putin is all bark when it comes to threats and red lines with NATO.

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This. After all the West has done to support Ukraine, we've seen very little in the form of escalation beyond words and saber rattling. While all actions require careful examination of COAs and consequences, we should not approach escalation from a perspective of fear. In fact, escalation should be the key concern / fear of Moscow. Keep those ports open. It is a morally righteous position.

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I imagine it may work (certainly at this stage). Reminds me a bit of the West Berlin Air Lifts. You would want to have some intimidating American Naval ships to reinforce how immediate the response would be. I don't know if we or anyone in NATO could present that much power in the Black Sea.

Would Erdogan let them in? I think that is the big question.

Putin's strategy is to increase hunger in third world nations? That's not going to win friends and allies. Trying to hold the world hostage via lack of food supply is going to be a tall order.

Quote:

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Ukrainian Ministry of Defense will consider vessels heading to Russian Black Sea ports and ports at occupied territories of Ukraine as such that could carry military cargos, and vessel movement at Kerch Strait is prohibited

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/20-july-ukrainian-ministry-of-defense-will-consider-vessels

Quote:

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The European Union will increase military aid to Ukraine in response to the shelling of Odesa, Borrell said. "There is only one solution for this - to increase military aid to Ukraine. If they are bombed, we must provide more air defense systems. If the Russians use drones, we must provide the means to destroy these drones. The massive attacks that took place over these 3 nights require a decisive response from us," Borrell said

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/20-july-the-european-union-will-increase-military-aid-to

Open armored exploit warfare isn't going to be possible along the southern Zaporhiza-Donetsk front or western front because the Russians have had nine months to dig in, mine, and pre sight artillery. Maybe a crossing of the Dneiper with a large force somewhere between Enerhodar and Nova Khakova to retake Southern Kherson-but extremely difficult crossing and with what massive reserve would they use to accomplish?

At this point my opinion is that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been a costly failure.

They need to hold the fronts they have, which is going to be a massive challenge (the inability of western manufacturing to meet the demand for artillery is a stark reminder of how badly we've been sold out to China) they also need tokeep hitting the Kerch bridge, and find a way to hit the Russian fleet is Sevastopol, and wait for Putin to die.

Quote:

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Russian state Duma adopted new amendments to laws on mobilisation, increasing existing fines and introducing new for avoiding mobilisation, not updating personal information at military enlistment office

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/20-july-russian-state-duma-adopted-new-amendments-to-laws

2000AgPhD said:

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Would Erdogan let them in? I think that is the big question.

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Agree. But that works both ways. Russian grain shipsnot allowed out. No Russian war ships allowed into the Black Sea. The geography here is a huge factor in strategy. It is fairly easy to turn the Black Sea into a giant fishbowl, or rather fish in a barrel.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Putin's strategy is to increase hunger in third world nations? That's not going to win friends and allies. Trying to hold the world hostage via lack of food supply is going to be a tall order.

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Don't think that is the case with Wagner's latest move. The main grain imports for Africa come from Russia, France, and Ukraine. If Wagner actually is going to refocus on Africa I and Russia announces a blockade of Ukraine grain ships I think Russia is going to focus on their relationship with Africa to keep up their exports

Still not sure what exactly to make out of the Wagner shift, removing one of your most effective group from Ukraine. After hearing about the lack of progress is Bahkmut I think Russia may be keen with just keep throwing men there to prevent Ukraine from taking the area back. They have the elevated position so without air power it will be tough for Ukraine to make a move without a lot of casualties.

Erdogan has always been focused on Turkey first, he started leaning to Russia for a lot like weapon systems but since the Ukraine war he has come back towards the middle. I think he is just playing it so he can get more from NATO and the US. Turkey has gone to the highest bidder and has no issues using another country to get what they want

2000AgPhD said:

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Would Erdogan let them in? I think that is the big question.

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No. He needs to play both sides and Putin will put enormous pressure on him to not let NATO warships through to the Black Sea.

aggiehawg said:

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2000AgPhD said:

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Would Erdogan let them in? I think that is the big question.

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Agree. But that works both ways. Russian grain shipsnot allowed out. No Russian war ships allowed into the Black Sea. The geography here is a huge factor in strategy. It is fairly easy to turn the Black Sea into a giant fishbowl, or rather fish in a barrel.

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Not sure we want the Navy to get into a shooting war with Russian warships trying to protect their grain ships outside of the Black Sea. That is the likely outcome of us trying to interdict Russian shipping after it leaves the Black Sea.

txags92 said:

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2000AgPhD said:

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Would Erdogan let them in? I think that is the big question.

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No. He needs to play both sides and Putin will put enormous pressure on him to not let NATO warships through to the Black Sea.

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The Montreux Convention prohibits passage of foreign warships during a war.

japantiger said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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GAC06 said:

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More Bradleys is obvious, but the Strykers are interesting. We've seen two (or three?) extra allocations of Strykers after the large initial batch but I haven't seen any evidence of losses or combat use at all so far

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There are several battalions still being held in reserve. The strykers and a lot of Bradleys are assigned to those

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At this point, I don't believe they are holding back some massive strike force. Especially not given the volume of equipment losses being reported from multiple sources. Operation Quicksilver.

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There's a lot of stuff that hadn't been seen in combat yet. No Strykers, no marders, no challengers, etc

For the Ukrainian crew members sake, I hope we don't see strykers in combat

Dirt 05 said:

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For the Ukrainian crew members sake, I hope we don't see strykers in combat

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I imagine we are giving them some of the flat bottom ones too, those things are goners with the first mine they hit. They had a lot of problems when the US used them. Good concept, bad execution

japantiger said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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GAC06 said:

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More Bradleys is obvious, but the Strykers are interesting. We've seen two (or three?) extra allocations of Strykers after the large initial batch but I haven't seen any evidence of losses or combat use at all so far

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There are several battalions still being held in reserve. The strykers and a lot of Bradleys are assigned to those

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At this point, I don't believe they are holding back some massive strike force. Especially not given the volume of equipment losses being reported from multiple sources. Operation Quicksilver.

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Believe what you want, but bear in mind there are no strykers reported or documented as lost and they have 90 of them. There's no evidence they've been deployed to the front, so where are they?

This is a little dated now, but there are several brigades that have not been seen on the frontlines yet.

Quote:

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If the Ukrainians' plan is to mass most or all of their uncommitted combat power for a single major armored thrust somewhere in the south, expect the 117th to roll into combat alongside several other new brigades that we know exist, but which haven't yet appeared on the front line: the 21st, 32nd and 118th Mechanized andespeciallythe super-powerful 82nd Air Assault.

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Agree. We should not tolerate a "blockade" as part of his "special military operation". We reserve the right to navigate in international waters.

Do we have sufficient assets in the Black Sea? This point is likely moot.

RogerEnright said:

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Do we have sufficient assets in the Black Sea? This point is likely moot.

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we have no assets in the Black Sea, only Russia and Turkey do.

RogerEnright said:

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Do we have sufficient assets in the Black Sea? This point is likely moot.

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We have no naval assets in the Black Sea, and foreign warships are currently barred from entering. The only option would be air based assets engaging in whatever ASW operations they could and engaging any Russian warships that fired on civilian vessels. I don't think that will happen.


The best option would be to arm Ukraine with long range missiles to hit Russia's vessels in port if a civilian vessel is attacked. Another potential partial solution would be to seek permission for mine sweepers to patrol traffic corridors into Ukrainian ports and demine them as necessary.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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RogerEnright said:

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Do we have sufficient assets in the Black Sea? This point is likely moot.

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We have no naval assets in the Black Sea, and foreign warships are currently barred from entering. The only option would be air based assets engaging in whatever ASW operations they could and engaging any Russian warships that fired on civilian vessels. I don't think that will happen.


The best option would be to arm Ukraine with long range missiles to hit Russia's vessels in port if a civilian vessel is attacked. Another potential partial solution would be to seek permission for mine sweepers to patrol traffic corridors into Ukrainian ports and demine them as necessary.

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This is the way. Tell the Orcs to get their cameras ready…Sevastopol light show incoming.

Russia laying mines in the Black Sea to block grain ships.

MINES

Is napalm a reasonable weapon to use against well-dug-in Russians in trenches? I suppose the biggest problem would be having enough delivery systems.

First videos emerging of DPICM use.

What does 🇺🇸 aid to Ukraine look like?

It’s cluster munitions that are highly effective in the open against Russian infantry.

Starting with high explosives rounds, it’s quickly followed up at 0:25 by what appears to be 🇺🇸 DPICM. pic.twitter.com/jIfrxe91Kq

— CJ (@CasualArtyFan) July 20, 2023