BQ_90 said:

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Rossticus said:

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GeoConfirmed UKR.

"A huge explosion occurred on the road T1906 near the border between Ukraine and Russia."

51.21821, 34.30674

GeoLocated by @PauliusZaleckas https://t.co/nCdDzJaYQ1

— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) July 10, 2023

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what the hell was that, but it went boom

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Nah, that was definitely Bada-boom.

P.U.T.U said:

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The issue is with Ukraine getting all of the modern weapon systems they are trying to fight like a superpower. They did so well by using small unit tactics and choosing when to fight, not stomping into defensive positions that Russia has been working on all winter.

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There's literally only been one example of this. Every other video we've seen is small unit actions supported by a coupled of APC and maybe a tank.

One could argue they should probably be somewhere in the middle. What's the point of having all this equipment if it's purely a troop delivery system that doesn't support them in action. Or hell, instead of isolated small group actions have them all along the line at the same time in a coordinated attack. That would seem to stress Russia more and actually take advantage of all the equipment we know they have.

I recently listened to a podcast about Francisco Franco. You could have won the war against the Republicans very quickly. But instead he purposefully did so very slowly methodically, killing as many Republicans in as many places as he could. His objective was to win over the long term, to completely wipe out all opposition. This would allow him to rule for over 40 years.

This goes to the point that the Ukrainian tactics may not be oriented towards taking a lot of territory quickly. Logistics and artrit the manpower of there other side. Force Putin to fully mobilize, which will unleash popular discontent.

P.U.T.U said:

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The issue is with Ukraine getting all of the modern weapon systems they are trying to fight like a superpower. They did so well by using small unit tactics and choosing when to fight, not stomping into defensive positions that Russia has been working on all winter.

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Aren't they trying to selectively engage on a broad front(s) and focusing on attriting arty, logistics and CnC? Taking gains where they are more easily available?

Ukraine can't stand the losses from attacking across minefields into extensive Russian fortifications backed by zeroed-in artillery.

It has to first attrit Russian logistics stockpiles and artillery so it can more safely make the initial approach clearing lanes through the minefields and then methodically work thru the enemy trench lines without being under intense indirect fires the entire time.

IMO this preparatory interdiction campaign is what Ukraine is doing right now.

Even Franco in 1936 had superior air power. Not sure why the Allies expect Ukraine to have a decisive counteroffensive without air power. This is a purposeful Choice by the Allies to prevent them from having Superior air power.

Ukraine adapting S-200 missile with 480lb warhead to attack surface targets.

SAM

MIG-29s are Ukraine's JDAM-ER bomb truck.

FULCRUM

Squadron7 said:

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A question for the experts here:

Compared to other wars...how does this Russia/Ukraine war compare in terms of the frequency, speed, and general direction of advances (by either side)?

(I realize that the sweeping gains seen in the two Gulf War ops are not the same and that these two sides are much more evenly matched.)

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WWII comes to mind. The Russians, like the Nazis, made really fast advances in areas where the defenders weren't prepared because they didn't think an invasion would actually happen. Also like the Nazis, they've been steadily attrited and pushed back in fairly discrete chunks using a lot of international support. Think of the many campaigns that pushed the Nazis from specific theaters like North Africa, Italy, France, and the east. It's not exactly the same, but close.

Another interesting parallel, though somewhat reversed, is the Russians getting the **** beat out of them by the Nazis. It was US and British aid that saved them. They certainly had a lot of bodies and could produce equipment, but not at the levels they needed to sustain offensive operations. The food, munitions, and logistical vehicles we provided were absolutely crucial. Had we not provided those things, Russia would have been in a similar situation to now, where they are fighting an opponent with far less mass but better organization and in some ways weaponry. Numbers may not be everything.

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Not sure why the Allies expect Ukraine to have a decisive counteroffensive without air power.

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Maybe to keep them from going rogue and launching an air raid on Moscow or making some similarly provocative action that might drag NATO or the US into a direct conflict? Just a guess

shiftyandquick said:

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Even Franco in 1936 had superior air power. Not sure why the Allies expect Ukraine to have a decisive counteroffensive without air power. This is a purposeful Choice by the Allies to prevent them from having Superior air power.

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I don't think so. I think the issue is exactly what we are willing to let go of. Not every F-16 is created equal, and the hang up is likely between what we are willing to let go of and what could realistically survive in the dense AA environment over Ukraine. Even Russia, with it's sizeable fleet of 4th gen aircraft, has not been able to establish air superiority because of the SAM threat.

F-16's are usually going to be supported by other specialist EW aircraft, and we're not giving those to Ukraine. Without them, and the latest EW pods and avionics we're also not likely to give them, they'd be just as easy pickings as the Migs getting shot out of the sky on both sides.

There's also the issue of training. We know very well how to use F-16's and work them into strike packages. That is something that would take the Ukrainians time to understand and adapt to.

There's no real reason to think this is preparatory attacks at this point.

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All this changed after the 1991 Gulf war in which U.S. air superiority and tank first destroyed the Iraqi defense forces. That war was misconstrued as a big win when it in fact was simply the effect of a by far superior professional force over a unmotivated conscript army with old and often defunct weapons.

As an effect of the first Gulf war and later operations in Serbia, Afghanistan and again in Iraq the believe in NATO air-land doctrine was reinforced. Air superiority was the holy grail while the strong land force capabilities atrophied. An emphasis on guerilla suppression and on vehicles that could withstand simple improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Iraq and Afghanistan further unbalanced the force.

It explains why the Ukrainian troops were miss-trained and miss-equipped for a counter-offensive even when the opposing force was a much harder to crack one than some goat herders from Helmand, Afghanistan.

The Ukrainian combined-arms-warfare units, without air-support and little artillery, were defeated. Western mining equipment failed to clear real 20 kilogram anti-tank mines from the heavy Ukrainian grounds. Armored Ukrainian troops were destroyed in mine fields (video) well before they could reach their targets.
Seeing that the tank heavy concept was failing the Ukrainians switched to a much older and more bloody technic:

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In these conditions, our guys, together with Ukrainian commanders, developed tactics of "mosquito" promotion: continuous attacks of Russian positions by small tactical groups of Ukrainian infantry. The Russians, who are much more sensitive to losses in manpower, try to prevent close ("contact") battles and retreat when Ukrainians reach their trenches, allowing artillery to destroy the enemy.

This usually succeeds: Ukrainians die or retreat. But this tactic has a positive effect. Several such attacks almost completely destroy the Russian position, most often with their own fire, after which the Russians are forced to retreat to a new line, where this tactic is repeated. That's how in two weeks the Russians were pushed back three miles from Makarov's strategically important position.

And this tactic is constantly improving. Our side believe that, at the continuing pace of such progress, in two weeks Ukrainians will be able to overcome the Russian support band and start storming their main line of defense, while maintaining the offensive potential of their strongest brigades. Perhaps that's what General Milley meant yesterday about the ten weeks of the Ukrainian offensive.

This tactical technique has another important effect. Russians are forced to spend more artillery shells to repel such "mosquito" attacks, the stocks of which they replenish more slowly than they spend. And in two weeks of such battles, they may well approach the depletion of their stocks. Of course, this leads to great losses of Ukrainians but, as I said at the beginning, they are not sensitive to the death of their soldiers. In addition, advances however small are a better justification for their death than unsuccessful attacks. And here, we must admit that the Russians today are much closer to the armies of Western countries than the Ukrainians are in this respect: the Russians take care of their soldiers ...

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The "mosquito" technic replaces losses in armored vehicles will more heavy losses of infantry. The 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, which had led the fight on the western part of the Zaporozhia front, has just been pull back from the front line because it had lost too many of its soldiers.

After the Russian lost a few trenches to storming Ukrainian troops that did not care for their own losses they modified their own tactic. Its troops still leave the forward trenches when under pressure but they now booby-trap those before taking off. These videos showhow Ukrainian troops jump into an empty Russian rench only to be blown up by several small explosions. The Russian's need no artillery to do that. The trenches are kept intact but for a number Ukrainian corpses that can easily be moved aside.

A few days ago the Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner said in an interview (in German) that Ukraine had deployed all but four of its twelve reserve brigades that were supposed to be the armored counter-offensive fist that would defeat Russian defenses. Since than the 116th, 117th, and 118th Mechanized Brigades, part of last reserve, have been deployed near the Zaparozhia front. They will replace the 128th and other units that were mostly destroyed while gaining only a few kilometer in the sparsely inhabited countryside. Half of Milley's ten weeks of counter-offensive operations have passed with no relevant gains for the Ukrainian side. The next five weeks will likely destroy the rest of the battle ready Ukrainian forces.

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Russia:UFA are compared often in terms of tanks/uniformed troops in Ukraine, but what really matters is probably actually the artillery systems and ammo. I don't think there has been any credible assertion their advantages in that respect, on the defensive in particular, has been significantly degraded, other than a handful of ammo dumps being blown up, and the UFA claim to have destroyed 5,000 RU field artillery systems (doubtful).

agent-maroon said:

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Not sure why the Allies expect Ukraine to have a decisive counteroffensive without air power.

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Maybe to keep them from going rogue and launching an air raid on Moscow or making some similarly provocative action that might drag NATO or the US into a direct conflict? Just a guess

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They have ballistic missiles. If that's the argument, it isn't very good.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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Even Franco in 1936 had superior air power. Not sure why the Allies expect Ukraine to have a decisive counteroffensive without air power. This is a purposeful Choice by the Allies to prevent them from having Superior air power.

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I don't think so. I think the issue is exactly what we are willing to let go of. Not every F-16 is created equal, and the hang up is likely between what we are willing to let go of and what could realistically survive in the dense AA environment over Ukraine. Even Russia, with it's sizeable fleet of 4th gen aircraft, has not been able to establish air superiority because of the SAM threat.

F-16's are usually going to be supported by other specialist EW aircraft, and we're not giving those to Ukraine. Without them, and the latest EW pods and avionics we're also not likely to give them, they'd be just as easy pickings as the Migs getting shot out of the sky on both sides.

There's also the issue of training. We know very well how to use F-16's and work them into strike packages. That is something that would take the Ukrainians time to understand and adapt to.

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Why would aircraft being decommissioned by other countries somehow be different than all the other aging equipment that has been delivered, but not ideal for "insert specific use here"?

It's still better than nothing. And often utilized extremely well by Ukraine as proven over and over.

In a stunning about-face, Erdogan reportedly has just now agreed to Sweden's accession.

NATO

AgLA06 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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Even Franco in 1936 had superior air power. Not sure why the Allies expect Ukraine to have a decisive counteroffensive without air power. This is a purposeful Choice by the Allies to prevent them from having Superior air power.

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I don't think so. I think the issue is exactly what we are willing to let go of. Not every F-16 is created equal, and the hang up is likely between what we are willing to let go of and what could realistically survive in the dense AA environment over Ukraine. Even Russia, with it's sizeable fleet of 4th gen aircraft, has not been able to establish air superiority because of the SAM threat.

F-16's are usually going to be supported by other specialist EW aircraft, and we're not giving those to Ukraine. Without them, and the latest EW pods and avionics we're also not likely to give them, they'd be just as easy pickings as the Migs getting shot out of the sky on both sides.

There's also the issue of training. We know very well how to use F-16's and work them into strike packages. That is something that would take the Ukrainians time to understand and adapt to.

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Why would aircraft being decommissioned by other countries somehow be different than all the other aging equipment that has been delivered, but not ideal for "insert specific use here"?

It's still better than nothing. And often utilized extremely well by Ukraine as proven over and over.

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Because pilots take too much time and money to train to put them in an aircraft that has no chance.

Along with that, what they're getting on the ground is relatively competitive and survivable. It is kind of outdated or surplus by our standards, but it is still very lethal to what Russia is fielding. Aircraft are a different story because they fight a different type of engagement. Unlike tanks and other ground vehicles, they can be seen, tracked, and engaged at very long ranges by Russian air defenses. The F-16's being retired or decommissioned by NATO countries are not competitive with or lethal against the current layered air defenses Ukraine is facing. That's the difference.

Awesome! Wonder if Erdogan was promised EU membership

74OA said:

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I'm struggling to take seriously something posted from a site titled, "Moon of Alabama, Where Barflies Get Together" and which makes assertions such as this instant classic of absurdity: "And here, we must admit that the Russians today are much closer to the armies of Western countries than the Ukrainians are in this respect: the Russians take care of their soldiers...."

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This is not the first time that something from "Moon of Alabama" had been posted here. The irony is that it was basically created and run by a DailyKos blogger.

SamHou said:

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Awesome! Wonder if Erdogan was promised EU membership

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I doubt it because NATO can't speak for the EU, but Sweden did pledge to support Turkey's EU membership so perhaps that was enough of a face-saver for Erdogan to relent.

SUMMIT

74OA said:

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SamHou said:

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Awesome! Wonder if Erdogan was promised EU membership

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I doubt it, but Sweden did pledge to support Turkey's EU membership so perhaps that was enough of a face-saver for Erdogan to relent.

SUMMIT

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I am sure he got some other goodies, or was told goodies would be taken away

Blackbeard94 said:

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74OA said:

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SamHou said:

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Awesome! Wonder if Erdogan was promised EU membership

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I doubt it, but Sweden did pledge to support Turkey's EU membership so perhaps that was enough of a face-saver for Erdogan to relent.

SUMMIT

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I am sure he got some other goodies, or was told goodies would be taken away

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Yep, this should clear the Congressional opposition to Turkey's request for new F-16s and upgrade kits for the F-16s it already has, for example.

I think we threatened to put on hold warplane shipments if Turkey did not approve. Not sure if that is how this played out.

Yep, Russia definitely takes care of its soldiers.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 10 July 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/VscELUBeRB

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/0qHwBlW1l9

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) July 10, 2023

Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy

Ukraine pushing steadily south and working to encircle Bakhmut.

Today's SITREP.
[url=https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyivs-forces-push-deeper-south-near-robotyne][/url]

⚡️🇩🇪Rheinmetall will open a plant for the production of armored vehicles in western 🇺🇦Ukraine within 3 months, — CNN.

There, tanks will be created and repaired, and armored vehicle maintenance will be taught.

Papperger is unconcerned by the concerns of other Western defense… pic.twitter.com/qthXgkIodv

— 🇺🇦Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) July 10, 2023

⚡️According to Der Spiegel, the new aid package from 🇩🇪Germany to 🇺🇦Ukraine will include:

- 2 Patriot SAM launchers.
- 40 BMP Marder 1A3.
- 25 MBT Leopard 1A5.
- 5 BREM Bergepanzer 2.
- 20 thousand 155-mm shells.
- 5 thousand 155-mm smoke shells. pic.twitter.com/FIXuH7vmbZ

— 🇺🇦Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) July 11, 2023

74OA said:

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Ukraine pushing steadily south and working to encircle Bakhmut.

Today's SITREP.
[url=https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyivs-forces-push-deeper-south-near-robotyne][/url]

⚡️🇩🇪Rheinmetall will open a plant for the production of armored vehicles in western 🇺🇦Ukraine within 3 months, — CNN.

There, tanks will be created and repaired, and armored vehicle maintenance will be taught.

Papperger is unconcerned by the concerns of other Western defense… pic.twitter.com/qthXgkIodv

— 🇺🇦Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) July 10, 2023

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I wonder if the defensive barriers around Bakhmut are as substantial as along the southern sector, given the movement that we've seen in this sector over the preceding months? Perhaps the Ukrainians could break through in the East, then swing south, instead of a direct push from the southern sector to the Sea of Azov?

Going via the east is the long way round and the extended Ukrainian left flank would be exposed all the way to enemy forces and fires from nearby Russia.

My understanding is that there are extensive defensive works in the Donbas running along both sides of what was once the dividing line between Ukraine and the separatists, and that Russia has occupied those overrun fortifications for its own use.

Again, these video recaps are usually a day old, I suspect,for security reasons, but the detail is always interesting.

It is reported that the Russians lost 200 men north of Advidka, and the incompetent Gerasimov is still in charge.

Its good to see these gains but they are also coming at heavy prices. Multiple vids on reddit right now of Ukes getting hammered both INF and Armor by artillery, ATGMs, and I believe KA52s.

Be good to get the clusters on station along with orher items on the supply list.

France to provide long-range missiles, NATO Summit news and other miscellaneous notes.

UPDATES

Looks like quite a few long range strikes into occupied Ukraine already today. Glad they are getting more of these missiles.