74OA said:

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txags92 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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txags92 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Quote:

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Russian army conducted missile strike at central Kramatorsk

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/27-june-russian-army-conducted-missile-strike-at-central

Твари нанесли удар по центру Краматорска! pic.twitter.com/fZVTMO1jxw

— Прибрежный(Rezerv) (@Rezerv8) June 27, 2023

Quote:

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Missile hit crowded cafe in central Kramatorsk, - head of regional administration

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/27-june-missile-hit-crowded-cafe-in-central-kramatorsk--head

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Another sign of desperation. Armies in control of the situation don't resort to terror attacks, because they know that focusing on military targets is much more effective. When Russia doesn't know what to target and they feel the pressure building... That's when Russia terrorize civilians. Putin is desperate to project strength.

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Appears not, this building was full of western SOF mercenaries and Ukraine troops. Ukraine said Russia attacked peaceful buildings but obituaries started popping up according to modern_combat_history on Instagram

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Nothing about that IG post provides any evidence to back up that claim. They reference "reportedly" filled with western SOF troops, but provide no link to where those reports are, and reference obituaries starting to show up, but provide no links to the obituaries. Color me less than convinced by their crack reporting on the subject.

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I agree there is no definitive proof this is true but a two minute review of the pics of the wounded and most of the rescuers they do not appear to be regular citizens or even regular first responders. To me and as much as I don't want to say it I think the claim is likely true. We know more in a few days.

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Given Kramatorsk's location relative to alot of the current action, I would be surprised if the town wasn't crawling with Ukraining and volunteer legion troops. And to see them there helping clear debris and rescue survivors would be no surprise either. But the claim is that the hotel was full of western SOF and pics and videos from before the attack suggest otherwise. There may have been some there eating in the cafe along with the locals, but that does not make it an acceptable target in my mind.

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Nor is it acceptable under the International Law of War which says that the impact of weapons of warfare must be proportionate to the military value of the target and avoid unnecessary noncombatant suffering and destruction of civilian objects. The Russians could not care less.

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Barbarian war criminal state.

Correction: contrary to initial reports, Ukraine says Russia attacked Kramatorsk pizzeria w iskander ballistic missiles, not s300. A class of missiles you’d see used against serious military targets like command centres. A clear war crime (proportionality) https://t.co/Gw3ZCxieBH

— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) June 28, 2023

That makes more sense given the relative accuracy if that's in fact where they were targeting. S-300 ground strikes are usually just pointed in the general direction and fired.

txags92 said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Ag97 said:

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Here come the purges. Gonna be lots of officers eating bullets or worse in the next month. Just hope their replacements are less capable and more corrupt so the existing Russian State collapses sooner rather than later.

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Do we want a collapse? A humbling, sure, but I want someone still guarding the nukes.

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I am honestly over caring what happens to Russia, because based on what we have seen so far, I don't think they have the capabilities we have all been scared of. I hope the whole country crashes and burns and splits into 1000 little fiefdoms, with each one ruled by whoever looted the most microwave ovens and washing machines from Ukraine before the Ukes kicked their asses.

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I'm much less concerned about Russia as much as envisioning the secondary or tertiary effects of the vacuum left in the wake of their demise. Or those nukes - got to keep those from falling into the hands of terrorists.

74OA said:

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Poland may give Ukraine the low-observable Naval Strike Missile. If so, that would effectively end Russia's naval domination of the Black Sea.

Today's SITREP.

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I am sure NATO is the only reason they haven't yet. In my limited time there and the Poles I've met in my journeys, there is an absolute loathing of Russia so normalized it is almost subconscious and shows itself in various ways you would not really think of. Which matches everything I see online as well. I know everyone looks at weapons and vehicles but Polands stepping up on both of those fronts AND humanitarian aid is outmatched to my knowledge. I am sure a lot of it, probably most of course, is because of genuine goodwill but can't help but wonder how much is to snub Russia. It's a win/win in their eyes I bet. All of those old Soviet break aways are like that and have been since the first minutes. They were nearly rabid in their condemnation and willingness to go at Russia from that first day.

They, of all others not named Ukraine, know exactly what the Russian Federation is and how it operates. Outsiders were taken aback I remember and even ridiculed it but sometimes there are just things that will never trump first hand knowledge. I am sure all of y'all at some point have had to stop explaining something to someone and just go "You won't understand. You weren't there". I know I have.

And noooow….time to go on a deep dive on the NSM. I'm familiar with the basics of it but need to see if it could be truly decisive alone unless one of y'all know for certainty it will be.

Squadron7 said:

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Do we want a collapse? A humbling, sure, but I want someone still guarding the nukes.

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After Ukraine pushes Russia out, we want a functioning Russia that can help the world balance China. A healthy Russia can help create a 'Peace of Westphalia' type balance for the world.

Likely this happens without Putin, but we want a stable Russia without Crimea.

The Poles have earned the right to hate Russia and Russians.

NSM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_Strike_Missile

200km - 250km range
125kg Titanium-cased penetrating blast and controlled fragmentation warhead

launched into the air by a solid rocket booster which is jettisoned upon burning out, the missile is propelled to its target in high subsonic speed by a turbojet sustainer engineleaving the 125 kg multi-purpose blast/fragmentation warhead to do its work, which in case of a ship target means impacting the ship at or near the water line.

A stable Russia regroups and does something like this again.

Here you go. Poland is offering the truck-mounted version. One thing to note is that the NSM coastal defense system and NASAMS, which Ukraine already has, use the same command and control system. In theory you can also mix them so you'd have a NSM/NASAMS battery.

NSM

Eliminatus said:

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And noooow….time to go on a deep dive on the NSM. I'm familiar with the basics of it but need to see if it could be truly decisive alone unless one of y'all know for certainty it will be.

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IMO, it's all about making Russia's occupation of Crimea as miserable and untenable as possible prior to peace talks... by every means possible. The Ukes either attack Sevastopol directly (ATACMS, Storm Shadow, etc.) or make the Black Sea verboden via NSM. The objective ... militarily force Russia to negotiate the status of Crimea and Sevastopol.

ETA ... Ukraine leased Sevastopol to Russia for 17 years (1997-2014) under the 1997 Black Sea Fleet Partition Treaty and extended the lease through 2042 under the Kharkov Accords in 2010.

AgLA06 said:

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The Poles have earned the right to hate Russia and Russians.

NSM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_Strike_Missile

200km - 250km range
125kg Titanium-cased penetrating blast and controlled fragmentation warhead

launched into the air by a solid rocket booster which is jettisoned upon burning out, the missile is propelled to its target in high subsonic speed by a turbojet sustainer engineleaving the 125 kg multi-purpose blast/fragmentation warhead to do its work, which in case of a ship target means impacting the ship at or near the water line.

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Taiwan could use this, don't you think?

ABATTBQ11 said:

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If they retake Crimea, that lease won't be worth the paper it's printed on.

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IMHO, I just don't see it ... at least not this yr. Access to Crimea via the narrow 6 mile wide land bridge is too easily defended. Ukraine's leverage needs to focus on denying Russian access and usefulness.

Blackbeard94 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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The Poles have earned the right to hate Russia and Russians.

NSM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_Strike_Missile

200km - 250km range
125kg Titanium-cased penetrating blast and controlled fragmentation warhead

launched into the air by a solid rocket booster which is jettisoned upon burning out, the missile is propelled to its target in high subsonic speed by a turbojet sustainer engineleaving the 125 kg multi-purpose blast/fragmentation warhead to do its work, which in case of a ship target means impacting the ship at or near the water line.

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Taiwan could use this, don't you think?

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Taiwan is armed with the Harpoon and just purchased 400 more from the US.

Harpoon Block II+ ER
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harpoon_(missile)

310km range
140kg warhead

"Boeing claims the Block II+ ER is superior to the Naval Strike Missile through its improved turbojet giving it greater range and active radar-homing seeker for all-weather operation, as well as a lighter but "more lethal" warhead."

The benefit to the NSM is it does not use active radar on it's terminal approach. It uses IR. Not as prone to EW jamming. Much stealthier design, sea skimming, and random paths on final approach make it more difficult for close-in systems to shoot down.

May explain some of the new paint choices by the Russian navy. Could be an effort to confuse IR systems.

Not a Bot said:

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The benefit to the NSM is it does not use active radar on it's terminal approach. It uses IR. Not as prone to EW jamming. Much stealthier design, sea skimming, and random paths on final approach make it more difficult for close-in systems to shoot down.

May explain some of the new paint choices by the Russian navy. Could be an effort to confuse IR systems.

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Paint probably won't do anything for that. It may be difficult to hit ships in port with it though. If their engines aren't running, and maybe even if they are, they may blend in with other stuff like tugs.

This is a video of a modified JDAM-ER package annihilating a ship for $30k compared to the roughly $2 million cost of a NSM or Harpoon. Roughly 70km range, but much much much easier to detect and shoot down. If it gets through defenses, though, the ship is toast. Works more like a torpedo detonating a huge warhead below the waterline.

AgLA06 said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Ag97 said:

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Here come the purges. Gonna be lots of officers eating bullets or worse in the next month. Just hope their replacements are less capable and more corrupt so the existing Russian State collapses sooner rather than later.

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Do we want a collapse? A humbling, sure, but I want someone still guarding the nukes.

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Brought to you weekly by the people who have told us we'd all die by Russian nukes 3,020,367 different ways that haven't happened.

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Sounds like you have it all under control.

Squadron7 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Ag97 said:

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Here come the purges. Gonna be lots of officers eating bullets or worse in the next month. Just hope their replacements are less capable and more corrupt so the existing Russian State collapses sooner rather than later.

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Do we want a collapse? A humbling, sure, but I want someone still guarding the nukes.

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Brought to you weekly by the people who have told us we'd all die by Russian nukes 3,020,367 different ways that haven't happened.

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Sounds like you have it all under control.

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It's war. Nothing is under control. Making decisions based on the worse case scenario that is supposedly pushed to the trigger point over and over and yet doesn't happen, isn't sane.

AgLA06 said:

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Squadron7 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Ag97 said:

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Here come the purges. Gonna be lots of officers eating bullets or worse in the next month. Just hope their replacements are less capable and more corrupt so the existing Russian State collapses sooner rather than later.

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Do we want a collapse? A humbling, sure, but I want someone still guarding the nukes.

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Brought to you weekly by the people who have told us we'd all die by Russian nukes 3,020,367 different ways that haven't happened.

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Sounds like you have it all under control.

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It's war. Nothing is under control. Making decisions based on the worse case scenario that is supposedly pushed to the trigger point over and over and yet doesn't happen, isn't sane.

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Just seems like the bigger the collapse the more Russian military assets of a particular kind end on the market. And the bigger the collapse the more fiefdoms you'll have to deal with.

Indeed. Anyone saying we should prefer a genocidal KGB mafia dictator to the unknown of a post-Putin world is a coward or propagandist or both. Pessimists can be useful critics, but only those who believe in a better world can make it happen. https://t.co/2x48fLZTVV

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) June 29, 2023

Gordo14 said:

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Indeed. Anyone saying we should prefer a genocidal KGB mafia dictator to the unknown of a post-Putin world is a coward or propagandist or both. Pessimists can be useful critics, but only those who believe in a better world can make it happen. https://t.co/2x48fLZTVV

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) June 29, 2023

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Some food for thought on Surovikin. Take it with a grain of salt:

Propagandist Vladimir Solovyov (1.3 million subscribers on Telegram) reposts a z-channel message denying the Surovikin arrest reports, claiming that he is merely caught up in an audit of all officials who had close ties to Prigozhin. https://t.co/B8XMsmhLX9

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) June 28, 2023

ABATTBQ11 said:

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If they retake Crimea, that lease won't be worth the paper it's printed on.

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Seems like a clause or two was broken... but I haven't read the lease agreement.

AgLA06 said:

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A stable Russia regroups and does something like this again.

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History agrees with you, but considering their reduction in 'combat power', not in our lifetime.

Eliminatus said:

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74OA said:

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Poland may give Ukraine the low-observable Naval Strike Missile. If so, that would effectively end Russia's naval domination of the Black Sea.

Today's SITREP.

---

I am sure NATO is the only reason they haven't yet. In my limited time there and the Poles I've met in my journeys, there is an absolute loathing of Russia so normalized it is almost subconscious and shows itself in various ways you would not really think of. Which matches everything I see online as well. I know everyone looks at weapons and vehicles but Polands stepping up on both of those fronts AND humanitarian aid is outmatched to my knowledge. I am sure a lot of it, probably most of course, is because of genuine goodwill but can't help but wonder how much is to snub Russia. It's a win/win in their eyes I bet. All of those old Soviet break aways are like that and have been since the first minutes. They were nearly rabid in their condemnation and willingness to go at Russia from that first day.

They, of all others not named Ukraine, know exactly what the Russian Federation is and how it operates. Outsiders were taken aback I remember and even ridiculed it but sometimes there are just things that will never trump first hand knowledge. I am sure all of y'all at some point have had to stop explaining something to someone and just go "You won't understand. You weren't there". I know I have.

And noooow….time to go on a deep dive on the NSM. I'm familiar with the basics of it but need to see if it could be truly decisive alone unless one of y'all know for certainty it will be.

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That's a good characterization. The Polish film industry has also done good work dramatizing Soviet crimes, such as the movie Katyn about the murder of 25,000 Polish intellectuals in the Katyn forest in 1940, and Bitter Harvest, about the forced famine in Ukraine in 1932.

Igor Girkin: "It is reported that Prigozhin is currently in Russia negotiating. In 2 hours he flies back to Minsk. Almost all of his 'council of commanders' is also there"https://t.co/0XNqIB4KHC pic.twitter.com/vbUtzA24Lp

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) June 28, 2023

Weird ****

Not a Bot said:

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This is a video of a modified JDAM-ER package annihilating a ship for $30k compared to the roughly $2 million cost of a NSM or Harpoon. Roughly 70km range, but much much much easier to detect and shoot down. If it gets through defenses, though, the ship is toast. Works more like a torpedo detonating a huge warhead below the waterline.

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Ho Lee Fook.. that blew that ship to pieces in literally seconds .. Ukraines needs to send a few Russian ships to the. Bottom!

You would have to launch a large salvo from multiple aircraft (F-16, anyone?) within range and then hope at least one doesn't get shot down. These are not difficult objects to track and shoot. They are also GPS-guided and are likely vulnerable to EW countermeasures. The low cost may be worth it but also have to consider risk to aircraft and pilots.

Not a Bot said:

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You would have to launch a large salvo from multiple aircraft (F-16, anyone?) within range and then hope at least one doesn't get shot down. These are not difficult objects to track and shoot. They are also GPS-guided and are likely vulnerable to EW countermeasures. The low cost may be worth it but also have to consider risk to aircraft and pilots.

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What about using them on the ports where their ships are docking ? Seems if your shot off enough some would break through?

Sevastopol likely has the highest concentration of SAM batteries and AA in the theatre.

JDAM-ER has a range of about 70-80km. The most common SA-20 missile fired by an S-400 has a range of around 250km. The aircraft would be shot down before they even got close to range to release the bomb.

For Ukraine to utilize these against ships they'll likely need to catch one well out of port.