Russia denied Wagner fuel, but then ultimately denied their own troops fuel.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 16 hrs ago by lb3
I like the quick summary always found at the bottom of ISW's updates:
Key Takeaways
Key Takeaways
- The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin will travel to Belarus without facing criminal charges in Russia; some portion of Wagner Group fighters will sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD); and no Wagner personnel will be charged for their involvement in an armed rebellion.
- The Wagner Group encircled the Russian Southern Military District (SMD)'s headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and drove to within 330km of Moscow City prior to the announcement of the deal. Wagner forces will reportedly begin withdrawing to their bases soon, and footage reportedly depicts Prigozhin departing Rostov-on-Don.
- The Kremlin struggled to cohere an effective rapid response to Wagner's advances, highlighting internal security weaknesses likely due to surprise and the impact of heavy losses in Ukraine.
- Putin unsurprisingly elected to back the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and its ongoing efforts to centralize control of Russian irregular forces (including Wagner) over Prigozhin.
- The Lukashenko-brokered agreement will very likely eliminate Wagner Group as a Prigozhin-led independent actor in its current form, although elements of the organization may endure under existing and new capacities.
- Prigozhin likely gambled that his only avenue to retain Wagner Group as an independent force was to march against the Russian MoD, likely intending to secure defections in the Russian military but overestimating his own prospects.
- The optics of Belarusian President Lukashenko playing a direct role in halting a military advance on Moscow are humiliating to Putin and may have secured Lukashenko other benefits.
- The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium. The Lukashenko-negotiated deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin's rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian MoD.
- Russian forces launched their largest series of missile strikes against Ukraine in recent months on June 24, despite the armed rebellion within Russia.
- Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front and reportedly made advances on June 24, and regular fighting continued on other sectors of the line.
BUT NUKES!!!!!!!!!!!!
Been that way all along. Churchill, Patton, and McArthur had it right.
Been that way all along. Churchill, Patton, and McArthur had it right.
B-1 83 said:
Russia denied Wagner fuel, but then ultimately denied their own troops fuel.
Putin's Russia is slowly, but surely, becoming worse than a 3rd world sheethole country.
It's beautiful.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
I understood that reference!
Absolutely insane footage. Weren't those guys too bunched up than they should have been? Seemed like a well placed grenade or shell would take multiples of them out.74OA said:Footage of yesterday's battalion vs battalion combat of the 🇺🇦1st Mech Battalion (3 Assault Br) vs 🇷🇺3rd Battalion (57th Guards).
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 25, 2023
As a result of the assault, the bridgehead on the western bank of the Siversky Donets - Donbas canal was completely cleared.
During the operation,… pic.twitter.com/reUuGTZj58
What resources are already in place in Belarus? I think Wagner just north of Kiev is a dangerous situation.Waffledynamics said:
I doubt Russia has the logistics to open up another front while maintaining the existing fronts.
"When told that the aid given was just three percent of the Defense Department's budget, that Ukraine remained in control of much of its territory, and that the war had severely degraded Russian combat capabilities, the number of respondents who approved of the aid jumped to 64 percent.
Gains were largest with Republicans, with 59 percent thinking money on military aid was well spent after being given additional information."
POLL
Gains were largest with Republicans, with 59 percent thinking money on military aid was well spent after being given additional information."
POLL
As far as I can tell, it's just been a training ground lately. We'd know if they were getting ready for an attack from there. They couldn't really hide it very well.
Russia lost 39 pilots to Wagner yesterday???
I know we've entered serious game of thrones territory over there, but that's got to be hard to forgive.
I know we've entered serious game of thrones territory over there, but that's got to be hard to forgive.
A little pedantic, but there's no way they lost 39 pilots. Perhaps 39 aircrew. 39 pilots would suggest around 20 aircraft. The reports I've seen are 7 aircraft. Still a lot for 1 day's fighting and little damage done to Wagner.amercer said:
Russia lost 39 pilots to Wagner yesterday???
I know we've entered serious game of thrones territory over there, but that's got to be hard to forgive.
That number has to include the fixed wing passenger jet they use for EW that was also shot down. At least half from there.chickencoupe16 said:A little pedantic, but there's no way they lost 39 pilots. Perhaps 39 aircrew. 39 pilots would suggest around 20 aircraft. The reports I've seen are 7 aircraft. Still a lot for 1 day's fighting and little damage done to Wagner.amercer said:
Russia lost 39 pilots to Wagner yesterday???
I know we've entered serious game of thrones territory over there, but that's got to be hard to forgive.
Ukraine has been fortifying its northern border ever since it repelled the attack on Kiev in the first days of the war. Everything I'm reading says Prigozhin is exiled to Belarus and his men are being forced to sign contracts to serve within the Russian army. As I understand it, Wagner as an independent mercenary force is gone or will be soon.Straight Talk said:What resources are already in place in Belarus? I think Wagner just north of Kiev is a dangerous situation.Waffledynamics said:
I doubt Russia has the logistics to open up another front while maintaining the existing fronts.
It can't. All the mining operations, all the oil and gas operations and ownership wouldn't be sustainable without it's deniability and muscle for the Russian government. So either it's just gone in name and they'll make the prisoners (who mostly likely didn't participate because they weren't trusted) enlist to be used as cannon fodder and the core nucleus gets to fall back to one of the hundred shell company names and keep going outside the Ukraine / Russian territory.74OA said:Ukraine has been fortifying its northern border ever since it repelled the attack on Kiev in the first days of the war. Everything I'm reading says Prigozhin is exiled to Belarus and his men are being forced to sign contracts to serve within the Russian army. As I understand it, Wagner as an independent mercenary force is gone or will be soon.Straight Talk said:What resources are already in place in Belarus? I think Wagner just north of Kiev is a dangerous situation.Waffledynamics said:
I doubt Russia has the logistics to open up another front while maintaining the existing fronts.
Wagner's value as plausible deniability is burned. Besides, Moscow has a number of other merc outfits and shell companies it can hide behind when it wants to.AgLA06 said:It can't. All the mining operations, all the oil and gas operations and ownership wouldn't be sustainable without it's deniability and muscle for the Russian government. So either it's just gone in name and they'll make the prisoners (who mostly likely didn't participate because they weren't trusted) enlist to be used as cannon fodder and the core nucleus gets to fall back to one of the hundred shell company names and keep going outside the Ukraine / Russian territory.74OA said:Ukraine has been fortifying its northern border ever since it repelled the attack on Kiev in the first days of the war. Everything I'm reading says Prigozhin is exiled to Belarus and his men are being forced to sign contracts to serve within the Russian army. As I understand it, Wagner as an independent mercenary force is gone or will be soon.Straight Talk said:What resources are already in place in Belarus? I think Wagner just north of Kiev is a dangerous situation.Waffledynamics said:
I doubt Russia has the logistics to open up another front while maintaining the existing fronts.
A side story that's not being discussed enough. "U.S. spy agencies picked up intelligence in mid-June indicating Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin was planning armed action against the Russian defense establishment which he has long accused of bungling the war in Ukraine and urgently informed the White House and other government agencies so they were not caught off guard, several U.S. officials said Saturday."
WE KNEW
WE KNEW
If that were the case, Wagner wouldn't have been as prolific as it was.
It's a win to exile them from Ukraine and the motherland so they aren't a physical threat to the throne and everything goes back to what it was 2 years ago.
It's a win to exile them from Ukraine and the motherland so they aren't a physical threat to the throne and everything goes back to what it was 2 years ago.
I'm not saying Wagner wasn't a useful foil so long as Prigozhim was a loyal Putin crony, but now that Moscow sees it as a threat there are other mechanisms to provide the same service with less risk.AgLA06 said:
If that were the case, Wagner wouldn't have been as prolific as it was.
Exactly. From your HATE link earlier, Russia is a toxic brew of multiple private military companies - all with divided loyalties. A lot of Wagner mercs will likely be absorbed by other PMC's. Nothing will fundamentally change because Russia, at it's core, is nothing more than an organized crime organization.74OA said:
I'm not saying Wagner wasn't a useful foil so long as Prigozhim was a loyal Putin crony, but now that Moscow sees it as a threat there are other mechanisms to provide the same service with less risk.
Quote:
Around 10 private military companies now operate in Russia, with their allegiance belonging to a collection of security officials, oil giants and oligarchs.
Mr Shoigu is said to control his own company called Patriot PMC which operates in Ukraine and is in direct competition with Wagner, according to the US state department.
The loyalty of these groups to the regime must now be questionable at best, and may weaken the assumption that Mr Putin's government is more capable of withstanding a long conflict in Ukraine than President Volodymyr Zelensky's government in Kyiv.
"The hopes of a part of the Russian elite, including, apparently, the president himself, that a long war is beneficial for Russia…are a dangerous illusion," said Ruslan Pukhov, an analyst with the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (Cast).
"Prolongation of the war carries huge domestic political risks for the Russian Federation."
Curious if wargonzo has been posting recently?
NM
knj2417 said:
Curious if wargonzo has been posting recently?
Isnt he dead? I thought he was shot and killed a week ago.
bonfarr said:knj2417 said:
Curious if wargonzo has been posting recently?
Isnt he dead? I thought he was shot and killed a week ago.
It was rumored at that time with a lot of collaborating stuff but still not 100% admitted by Russia yet I think. Wargonzo sites are also a multi person endeavor. But the main dude in question has been absent for a while so I am definitely leaning towards it was him that got domed in that video.
Thanks - thats what I was getting at
It was rather curious following the opinions of public Russian personas yesterday while the events around Wagner unfolded. Those who are naturally close to Kremlin - various military reporters with millions of followers who recently attended a meeting with Putin, they rallied…
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 25, 2023
Translated Telegram post posted on Twitter by DefMon3, but the Twitter post has NSFW language.
Here is the image he shared:
Twitter post: Here.
Def Mon usually doesn't jump the gun, so I'm inclined to believe the stories of a Dnipro crossing in the Kherson region are at least partially legitimate.
Here is the image he shared:
Twitter post: Here.
Def Mon usually doesn't jump the gun, so I'm inclined to believe the stories of a Dnipro crossing in the Kherson region are at least partially legitimate.
There's video of it on Reddit. It's not a big crossing so far. Small boats and a squad at a time.
It looked like Russia only had a squad or platoon at the bridge. A BTR pulled them out under fire from the Uke side.
It looked like Russia only had a squad or platoon at the bridge. A BTR pulled them out under fire from the Uke side.
Purgings are already occurring. Quiet and otherwise. New extremely NSFW vid of another execution but of a Russian trooper having his throat slit by his own unit for openly supporting ole Pringles. Very tough to see....and hear. You hear one beheading video, you hear them all. Ugh. He is not the first from what I have seen and he assuredly will not be the last.PJYoung said:In Russia, everyone lost yesterday — Prigozhin, Putin, the military and above all the Russian state that has shown itself to be so vulnerable and weak. My day-after analysis in @WSJ https://t.co/kZGaPbxQGE
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) June 25, 2023
Putin is not the absolute power as other Russians in the past. We all know this. He is no Stalin. But he is also still a Russian leader and people died for him to get where he is and then maintain that power. And in the past week, someone stood up to him, made him blink, and then walked away. Ostensibly scot free. Putin was made to look weak and people will die for that alone. Well, to be fair, people are ALREADY dying for it.
Saw that. The scream turned gurgling sends chills.
It's unlike Prigozhin to be radio-silent. Would not surprise me if he is dead.
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 25, 2023
shiftyandquick said:
It's unlike Prigozhin to be radio-silent. Would not surprise me if he is dead.
So….dinner will be late, then?
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