jabberwalkie09 said:You're assuming they have a choice in the matter. I don't think they have much of a choice here. Similar to how people who protested towards the beginning of all this suddenly found themselves with mobilization orders after having been thrown into the back of a paddy wagon.AgLA06 said:They're not going to willingly join the conventional crap fighting force and be used as fodder. It would be like (extreme example only because they were actually competent) telling the Ranger Regiment to disperse into national guard units. The vast majority would walk away and do something else.jabberwalkie09 said:I'm not sure I agree. I haven't watched he video but if the RU MoD makes them sign contracts with them and become part of the RU MoD forces, would they not become assets of the the RU military?AgLA06 said:If that's truly the case it also means any other PMC and the Chechens have to be done as well. No different and the same threat.RogerEnright said:
Key point that I haven't seen mentioned: Wagner likely won't fight in Ukraine again.
I am not sure I agree, but I was surprised by the significance of that statement. It would represent a good number of Russia's best trained troops out of the picture, or even more, Russia may have to account for what they are doing.
Any of them with a brain knows the first chance given, they're going to be done away with however possible no different than Uriah.
I do agree that any sane person given the choice would walk away though.
I agree with you. I doubt they're going to just let them go either. I'm sure some of these guys have gained skills that if they put to use could be used against the Kremlin. What better way to keep an eye on these guys than force them into the rank and file? On top of that you can make sure that they might end up in places where they might end up KIA or places where convenient accidents might happen.Eliminatus said:jabberwalkie09 said:You're assuming they have a choice in the matter. I don't think they have much of a choice here. Similar to how people who protested towards the beginning of all this suddenly found themselves with mobilization orders after having been thrown into the back of a paddy wagon.AgLA06 said:They're not going to willingly join the conventional crap fighting force and be used as fodder. It would be like (extreme example only because they were actually competent) telling the Ranger Regiment to disperse into national guard units. The vast majority would walk away and do something else.jabberwalkie09 said:I'm not sure I agree. I haven't watched he video but if the RU MoD makes them sign contracts with them and become part of the RU MoD forces, would they not become assets of the the RU military?AgLA06 said:If that's truly the case it also means any other PMC and the Chechens have to be done as well. No different and the same threat.RogerEnright said:
Key point that I haven't seen mentioned: Wagner likely won't fight in Ukraine again.
I am not sure I agree, but I was surprised by the significance of that statement. It would represent a good number of Russia's best trained troops out of the picture, or even more, Russia may have to account for what they are doing.
Any of them with a brain knows the first chance given, they're going to be done away with however possible no different than Uriah.
I do agree that any sane person given the choice would walk away though.
Look at it from the AFR side. Wagner shot down at least seven aircraft killing at least 10+ airmen. Military branches are like cults. The Russian Air Force is not going to forget this. How Wagner killed some of their people and are likely going to get away with it with zero repercussions. There was already tension between regular army and Wagner as well. I highly doubt these ex mercs are going to greeted with open arms and smiles. And they sure as **** won't be trusted.
JFABNRGR said:
Is Lushenko the real winner here?
He may have been a yes man to Putin but he has been able to avoid joining the invasion. Now he gets to put a big body guard between him and Putin or in the end will Pgon push out Lushenko.
I think we will see Wagner back in Ukraine if their supply and support requests are met. This helps Putin in two ways first attempting to salvage whats left of their original invasion objectives and secondly a busy wagner in Ukraine can't create too much trouble in mother russia.
Ultimately mistrust is flowing at max rate….one of the integral plagues of russia since the beginning.
Good point.DCPD158 said:
Now we will have thousands of Wagner troops north of Ukraine in Belarus. Not a good thing if they send them south in a new push to Kyiv.
Is the rest of Wagner going to Belarus?DCPD158 said:
Now we will have thousands of Wagner troops north of Ukraine in Belarus. Not a good thing if they send them south in a new push to Kyiv.
DCPD158 said:
Now we will have thousands of Wagner troops north of Ukraine in Belarus. Not a good thing if they send them south in a new push to Kyiv.
Ok, now suspicious me kicks in again. Was this just a strategic repositioning of Wagner back into Belarus? Under the guise of a coup in Russia which would intent to get the Ukes to move more forces into the gap and leave the other part of the country lightly defended?DCPD158 said:
Now we will have thousands of Wagner troops north of Ukraine in Belarus. Not a good thing if they send them south in a new push to Kyiv.
JB!98 said:Ok, now suspicious me kicks in again. Was this just a strategic repositioning of Wagner back into Belarus? Under the guise of a coup in Russia which would intent to get the Ukes to move more forces into the gap and leave the other part of the country lightly defended?DCPD158 said:
Now we will have thousands of Wagner troops north of Ukraine in Belarus. Not a good thing if they send them south in a new push to Kyiv.
None of this makes sense to me.
Pumpkinhead said:
Betting odds on Wagner leader guy's life expectancy? He will be allowed to just retire in Belarus, all forgiven?
SamHou said:Pumpkinhead said:
Betting odds on Wagner leader guy's life expectancy? He will be allowed to just retire in Belarus, all forgiven?
Putin doesn't forget nor forgive. That dude will get poisoned or fall out of a window. Might not be for 5 years. But Putin will kill him.
JB!98 said:Ok, now suspicious me kicks in again. Was this just a strategic repositioning of Wagner back into Belarus? Under the guise of a coup in Russia which would intent to get the Ukes to move more forces into the gap and leave the other part of the country lightly defended?DCPD158 said:
Now we will have thousands of Wagner troops north of Ukraine in Belarus. Not a good thing if they send them south in a new push to Kyiv.
None of this makes sense to me.
If that was directed at me, then forgive me. Nothing about this "special operation" has made sense from the get go.ATX_AG_08 said:
Grasping at straws to believe this was all a ploy to open up a second front. Unreal.
AGS-R-TUFF said:
A few pages pages back, a post outlined the possible replacement of the two Russian generals with loyalist to Prog. If there's any truth to this, then this may have been the plan all along.
Prig would need some powerful allies in place to actually uproot Putin. Maybe this fake coup is just step #1.
I still can't quite get over this – the Chechens say they are now leaving Rostov even though nobody saw them doing anything of note there yesterday!
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 25, 2023
Akhmat showed up in Moscow late last night, and went to a secondary bridge over the Oka River at Kolomna to do a photo shoot. https://t.co/PtzzbKC1gC pic.twitter.com/CmYnAvUN7y
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 25, 2023
In Russia, everyone lost yesterday — Prigozhin, Putin, the military and above all the Russian state that has shown itself to be so vulnerable and weak. My day-after analysis in @WSJ https://t.co/kZGaPbxQGE
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) June 25, 2023
JB!98 said:Ok, now suspicious me kicks in again. Was this just a strategic repositioning of Wagner back into Belarus? Under the guise of a coup in Russia which would intent to get the Ukes to move more forces into the gap and leave the other part of the country lightly defended?DCPD158 said:
Now we will have thousands of Wagner troops north of Ukraine in Belarus. Not a good thing if they send them south in a new push to Kyiv.
None of this makes sense to me.
Footage of yesterday's battalion vs battalion combat of the 🇺🇦1st Mech Battalion (3 Assault Br) vs 🇷🇺3rd Battalion (57th Guards).
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 25, 2023
As a result of the assault, the bridgehead on the western bank of the Siversky Donets - Donbas canal was completely cleared.
During the operation,… pic.twitter.com/reUuGTZj58
Quote:
Prigozhin likely gambled that his only avenue to retain Wagner Group as an independent force was to march against the Russian MoD, likely intending to secure defections in the Russian military but overestimating his own prospects. Prigozhin likely viewed the MoD's July 1 deadline to formalize control over all irregular formations, including Wagner, as an existential threat to his political (and possibly personal) survival. He likely therefore elected to risk using his forces in a bid to change the MoD's leadership rather than lose Wagner Group entirely, and as ISW assessed on June 23, his only real hope for lasting success was to secure MoD defections, and he did not do so.[33] Prigozhin almost certainly planned this effort in advance due to the observed coordination and speed of Wagner movements, but ISW cannot confirm this hypothesis from the open source.
