Not sure if Prigozhin is actually going to get what he wants in the deal, but Putin’s position (and arguably the entire Russian government) has absolutely been weakened.

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 24, 2023

PJYoung said:

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Not sure if Prigozhin is actually going to get what he wants in the deal, but Putin’s position (and arguably the entire Russian government) has absolutely been weakened.

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 24, 2023

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Precisely on-point.

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the revolt by Wagner mercenaries had revealed the "chaos" within Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime. "The world can see that the masters of Russia control nothing. And that means nothing. Simply complete chaos," he said in his nightly video address."

UPDATES

Putins presidential jets have left Moscow and fled to St Petersburg.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-wagner-prigozhin-putin/card/russian-presidential-aircraft-have-departed-moscow-kfD8IYwNu3hsLoprHf5d

bonfarr said:

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Can someone explain to me how The Wagner group is financed? I assume Putin pays Prighozin out of some Kremlin funds and Prighozin doles out money to his commanders and the Wagner soldiers. I would also guess their equipment and munitions are paid for by the Russian government. In the possible coup attempt if that is what it was how would he continue to pay his army? I imagine those guys that are thieves and murderers recently recruited from prisons would want to know what's in it for them to fight Moscow.

I wouldn't be surprised if the thing came to a halt after a giant payout to Prighozin.

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Worth the watch. Will answer most, however Pgon is clearly not in charge of the whole conglomerate.

⚡️Putin's spokesman: Part of Wagner mercenaries will sign contracts with Defense Ministry.

The Wagner mercenaries who did not participate in the rebellion will sign contracts with the Defense Ministry and will not be prosecuted, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's spokesman…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 24, 2023

jobu93 said:

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Perhaps he was the Ed Harris General who rattled his saber and took over Alcatraz.

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Who is Nicholas Cage in this scenario?

bonfarr said:

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Can someone explain to me how The Wagner group is financed? I assume Putin pays Prighozin out of some Kremlin funds and Prighozin doles out money to his commanders and the Wagner soldiers. I would also guess their equipment and munitions are paid for by the Russian government. In the possible coup attempt if that is what it was how would he continue to pay his army? I imagine those guys that are thieves and murderers recently recruited from prisons would want to know what's in it for them to fight Moscow.

I wouldn't be surprised if the thing came to a halt after a giant payout to Prighozin.

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PMC was being paid by the Russian state, mostly by the MOD.

and the last few days had informed everyone that payments would NOT be continuing which is probably why Prighozin moved right now before the finances were completely halted

Prigozhin is also an oligarch and very rich but not rich enough to pay for Wagner out of his own pocket

amercer said:

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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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Any chance this was a smoke screen? Chechen and Wagner are in Rostov, Russian Reserves and Wagner consolidate in Voronezh. Ukraine focused on moving south and to the west, Russia comes in from NE and SE?

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Sure maybe, but it seems like they would have kept it up until Ukraine moved into the trap. I think the Ukrainians were just watching today.

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OMG enough with the "5D stable genius" @#$@#$

Putin is the same idiot who claimed the "Special Military Operation" would be over in 3 days to "denazify" a country led by a Jewish president.

468 days later, and yet now you are stating it may all be some genius plan where Putin is made to look like a scared little girl running from the Kremlin and under siege by a strong military coup...

so that it's all another "feint" like the advance on Kyiv in March 2022?!?!

74OA said:

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PJYoung said:

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Not sure if Prigozhin is actually going to get what he wants in the deal, but Putin’s position (and arguably the entire Russian government) has absolutely been weakened.

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 24, 2023

---

Precisely on-point.

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the revolt by Wagner mercenaries had revealed the "chaos" within Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime. "The world can see that the masters of Russia control nothing. And that means nothing. Simply complete chaos," he said in his nightly video address."

UPDATES

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if anything alot of the best fighting forces for Russia are now off the board in Ukraine

because alot of Wagner will go with Prigozhin and never fight alongside the Kadarovyites.

not to mention Russia just lost another 6 helicopters, a fixed wing intel aircraft, and at least one tank I saw stuck in a too narrow archway in Rostov.

somehow I doubt Putin and the oligarchs are just going to sit back and watch Prigozhin enjoy a nice retirement in Belarus.

this will force the Russian military to clamp down even harder on any individual initiative and leadership. just like Hitler survived 20 July 1944 yet within months the state had murdered thousands of military "traitors"

Quote:

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The criminal case against Prigozhin will be dropped, he "will go to Belarus," - Kremlin's spokesperson said

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/24-june-the-criminal-case-against-prigozhin-will-be-dropped

⚡️Putin's spokesman: Part of Wagner mercenaries will sign contracts with Defense Ministry.

The Wagner mercenaries who did not participate in the rebellion will sign contracts with the Defense Ministry and will not be prosecuted, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's spokesman…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 24, 2023

Quote:

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Kremlin's spokesperson: changes in Ministry of Defense were not discussed with Prigozhin. As far as Peskov knows no plans to change minister. Wagner mercenaries will have an option to sign a contract with ministry of defense

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/24-june-kremlins-spokesperson-changes-in-ministry-of-defense

Quote:

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Prigozhin left the headquarters of the Southern Military District together with Wagner fighters

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/24-june-prigozhin-left-the-headquarters-of-the-southern-military

Prigohzin to rule Belarus as part of the deal?

Sounds stupid I know…

aggiehawg said:

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Not making much sense to me either. Asylum in Belarus? Why not at Wagner Group installations in Africa or Latin America?

But why did Putin leave Moscow for St. Petersburg?

Very confusing.

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Belarus is a puppet state but is closer to Poland. Maybe he makes a break for it to try to defect to the West. I think that's really, really unlikely. I think he gets FSB'ed before then. I don't think him going to any other Wagner installation would necessarily be safer for him though.

I mean, Putin was born there but I'm not sure if he has an emotional attachment to the location at all.

Russia is so bad they can't even do a coup right.

Gilligan said:

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Prigohzin to rule Belarus as part of the deal?

Sounds stupid I know…

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No way that happens IMO. Lukashenko has been too loyal and agreeable to Putin. Replacing him with someone who led an actual armed insurrection against him would be literal politcal seppuku.

Gilligan said:

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Prigohzin to rule Belarus as part of the deal?

Sounds stupid I know…

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Kind of like the deal in Chechnya with Kadyrov?

aggiehawg said:

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Gilligan said:

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Prigohzin to rule Belarus as part of the deal?

Sounds stupid I know…

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Kind of like the deal in Chechnya with Kadyrov?

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Except Kadyrov switched sides in the Second Chechen War and pledged allegiance to Russia. Putin was president at the time iirc.

Prigozhin is not going to rule Belarus.

aggiehawg said:

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Not making much sense to me either. Asylum in Belarus? Why not at Wagner Group installations in Africa or Latin America?

But why did Putin leave Moscow for St. Petersburg?

Very confusing.

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Moscow is not the HQ of its own military district (Western MD), St. Petersburg is the HQ.
Putin going north of Moscow has two choices, Western military district HQ in St. Petersburg, or Northern Military district in Severomorsk (Murmansk). The former is much more industrious and populous than the latter.
In American terms, if there was a mutiny while the president was in San Diego, he could fly to Indo-Pacific command in Hawaii, Northern command in Colorado Springs or the Pentagon. One's much more appealing than the other two.

Oh. Thank you. Did not know that Moscow was not the HQ for that military district.

Is this truly an 'exile' or did the Kremlin drop the bag on Prig?

Well, if nothing else, I guess this nicely ties up the question of the legality of Wagner in the first place!

On a more serious note though I wonder if there will be a true measurable influx of ex mercs into AFR ranks. Trust and reliability issues have to be rough and a smooth transition from Wagner to active duty Russian uniform may not be easy for many of them. What a wild ride this whole thing was and as I have mentioned several times in the past, it is still so bizarre to me how a nation as ostensibly powerful as Russia came to rely so much on a merc army. Also wonder if Wagner is truly disbanding fully or if elements will still remain in Africa and other far flung places.

If this is over, it's only over because Putin realized Prigozhin could actually take or at least fight in the streets of Moscow and Prigozhin realized he didn't have to support of the power centers in Russia to actually sieze power. The result is the emperor has no clothes. Don't think Putin will recover from this.

Some great conversations on Mario Nawfal's Twitter 'Space'. I believe you can listen without a Twitter Account.

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1vAGRAwNvzXKl

Key point that I haven't seen mentioned: Wagner likely won't fight in Ukraine again.

I am not sure I agree, but I was surprised by the significance of that statement. It would represent a good number of Russia's best trained troops out of the picture, or even more, Russia may have to account for what they are doing.

RogerEnright said:

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Key point that I haven't seen mentioned: Wagner likely won't fight in Ukraine again.

I am not sure I agree, but I was surprised by the significance of that statement. It would represent a good number of Russia's best trained troops out of the picture, or even more, Russia may have to account for what they are doing.

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If that's truly the case it also means any other PMC and the Chechens have to be done as well. No different and the same threat.

AgLA06 said:

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RogerEnright said:

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Key point that I haven't seen mentioned: Wagner likely won't fight in Ukraine again.

I am not sure I agree, but I was surprised by the significance of that statement. It would represent a good number of Russia's best trained troops out of the picture, or even more, Russia may have to account for what they are doing.

---

If that's truly the case it also means any other PMC and the Chechens have to be done as well. No different and the same threat.

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I'm not sure I agree. I haven't watched he video but if the RU MoD makes them sign contracts with them and become part of the RU MoD forces, would they not become assets of the the RU military?

BREAKING:

Russian police has returned to Rostov after the Wagner Group’s departure tonight.

The people aren’t happy to see them. They are blocking your he streets and hurling insults at the policemen.

Visible cracks have appeared in Russian society pic.twitter.com/q8Ew9kjdXS

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023

twk said:

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PA24 said:

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Ukraine forces...are they taking advantage of Spartacus heading to the new Rome.....

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I would imagine that they want to allow some time for the news to spread and for the Russian units in the front line to contemplate their next move. As long as the Russians are preoccupied with internal politics and not taking advantage of a pause to resupply, then it seems that the Ukrainians have nothing to lose by waiting. As Napoleon once said, "Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake."

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Uke's should figure out how to hit the Wagner columns as they roll back into country.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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RogerEnright said:

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Key point that I haven't seen mentioned: Wagner likely won't fight in Ukraine again.

I am not sure I agree, but I was surprised by the significance of that statement. It would represent a good number of Russia's best trained troops out of the picture, or even more, Russia may have to account for what they are doing.

---

If that's truly the case it also means any other PMC and the Chechens have to be done as well. No different and the same threat.

---

I'm not sure I agree. I haven't watched he video but if the RU MoD makes them sign contracts with them and become part of the RU MoD forces, would they not become assets of the the RU military?

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They're not going to willingly join the conventional crap fighting force and be used as fodder. It would be like (extreme example only because they were actually competent) telling the Ranger Regiment to disperse into national guard units. The vast majority would walk away and do something else.

Any of them with a brain knows the first chance given, they're going to be done away with however possible no different than Uriah.

Me following this thread…

AgLA06 said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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RogerEnright said:

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Key point that I haven't seen mentioned: Wagner likely won't fight in Ukraine again.

I am not sure I agree, but I was surprised by the significance of that statement. It would represent a good number of Russia's best trained troops out of the picture, or even more, Russia may have to account for what they are doing.

---

If that's truly the case it also means any other PMC and the Chechens have to be done as well. No different and the same threat.

---

I'm not sure I agree. I haven't watched he video but if the RU MoD makes them sign contracts with them and become part of the RU MoD forces, would they not become assets of the the RU military?

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They're not going to willingly join the conventional crap fighting force and be used as fodder. It would be like (extreme example only because they were actually competent) telling the Ranger Regiment to disperse into national guard units. The vast majority would walk away and do something else.

Any of them with a brain knows the first chance given, they're going to be done away with however possible no different than Uriah.

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You're assuming they have a choice in the matter. I don't think they have much of a choice here. Similar to how people who protested towards the beginning of all this suddenly found themselves with mobilization orders after having been thrown into the back of a paddy wagon.

I do agree that any sane person given the choice would walk away though.

Ultimately I think this is the biggest benefit to the west out of all of this. There is no covering this up. An armed column just advanced on Moscow and the only way they stopped it before serious fighting was buying off Prigozhin. A man that the Russian President labeled a an actual traitor less than 12 hours previously is now A OK and going off to live in Belarus now.

But even the stupidest Russian citizen saw what happened. They saw the show of force and the disunity. Russia has always been described as a nation of competing gangs, just some happen to wear suits. Their Byzantine political power struggles and plots are literally the stuff of legends and to see one play out in my life is amazing. This is a black eye for Russia and I truly don't see how anyone can refute that at this point. I am also certain a series of quiet purges will happen and quickly. This is basically formulaic and actions gained through rote repetition will assuredly take place. Putin is a crazed, murdering lunatic but he won't forget this. You can't be a Russian President without moderate to heavy violence along the way.