Rostov houses the command of the Southern Military District and the Operational Headquarters for the war in Ukraine. It’s also one of Russia most important logistical hubs for the war. Wagner could get it hands on enormous stockpiles.

— Alexander S. Vindman ❎ (@AVindman) June 24, 2023

This won't last a week IMO and I think it's probably on the long side. I don't know if leaflets are a thing, psyops wise, but they need to pepper those front lines with that and/or radio transmissions regarding surrender or suffer the consequences mother Russia has her eyes turned away from you now. It's okay to go home or you can push the sunflowers.

Tactically- find those areas that were buttressed by Wagner and those are the areas to hit. Deep towards the rear and isolate the pockets of heaviest resistance.

The scarier side of this that this instability may kick off Belarus and or Poland just from jittery nerves making bad choices.

Its a tense night for sure in Europe and Russia. Any situation like this can trigger all out war.

Smoke near highway - helicopter pic.twitter.com/oiroKKKGTt

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) June 24, 2023

Definitely Not A Cop said:

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He's in a Mexican standoff right now. He doesn't need to go to Moscow. He doesn't need to do anything except camp out where he is. True, Putin can blow him up 6 ways to Sunday, but not without putting Russian citizens at risk. And that makes the situation even worse for Russia.

He doesn't have to convince Putin he can win, he just has to convince Putin that he's got him in a stalemate no matter what and will embarrass him. And the longer he remains occupying a Russian town, the more embarrassing it gets.

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jobu93 said:

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This won't last a week IMO and I think it's probably on the long side. I don't know if leaflets are a thing, psyops wise, but they need to pepper those front lines with that and/or radio transmissions regarding surrender or suffer the consequences mother Russia has her eyes turned away from you now. It's okay to go home or you can push the sunflowers.

Tactically- find those areas that were buttressed by Wagner and those are the areas to hit. Deep towards the rear and isolate the pockets of heaviest resistance.

The scarier side of this that this instability may kick off Belarus and or Poland just from jittery nerves making bad choices.

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I honestly think this is going to last for some time, unless Prigozhun has infiltrated the entire Russian state. He's got at least 25,000 soldiers and lots of tanks. But it looks like some of Russia's soldiers are flipping sides. Putin will not be able to wipe that out quickly no matter what. If half or more of the Russian military don't let Wagner walk in and take it all, then I think this is going to be a real civil war.

Deep down, I still feel like Prigozhun is a Putin loyalist; he just wants to liquidate all the leads of the military.

🚨 Combat in Voronezh already. It is a half-way point between Rostov and Moscow. Prigozhin is not losing any time. You know the saying - "Those who rise early coup successfully." pic.twitter.com/6LF7rxpuBt

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) June 24, 2023

Cannot verify the authenticity of this video. But if it's real Wagner seriously has the upper hand.

Who controls the Russian military in Moscow? Who controls them in Ukraine? Does Moscow successfully pull troops from Ukraine to defend the state against Wagner. The next few days and weeks are going to get crazy.

GarryowenAg said:

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Deep down, I still feel like Prigozhun is a Putin loyalist; he just wants to liquidate all the leads of the military.

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At this point I'm not sure he can be a Putin loyalist anymore.

Prigozhun started as Putin's chef and then through contracts became one of the most powerful people in Russia. For a long time he was considered Putin's right hand man and did his dirty work, even before he was head of Wagner.

It is a big deal he turned on him. Just trying to figure this out right now

Stopping in Rostov is a mistake IMO. That just give Putin and his loyalists time to organize and execute. Citizen collateral damage is nothing to Putin.

If Prigozhun is genuinely just launching his coup against the top generals in the Russian MoD and not Putin, it might make sense for Putin to take his side.

It's probably easier for Putin to have a few generals arrested, killed, and portrayed as traitors in the media than it is to go fight street battles with Wagner forces in Rostov.

Zero need to march on Moscow. Just be clear to Putin "I'm still your guy, just kill those generals (it's not like they've been winning the war) and we can make this all go away real quick."

jobu93 said:

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Stopping in Rostov is a mistake IMO. That just give Putin and his loyalists time to organize and execute. Citizen collateral damage is nothing to Putin.

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I disagree. He probably couldn't do this at the start in Moscow. Now this gives him momentum and maybe that causes powerful people and the military to believe he will win.

Aggie_Journalist said:

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If Prigozhun is genuinely just launching his coup against the top generals in the Russian MoD and not Putin, it might make sense for Putin to take his side.

It's probably easier for Putin to have a few generals arrested, killed, and portrayed as traitors in the media than it is to go fight street battles with Wagner forces in Rostov.

Zero need to march on Moscow. Just be clear to Putin "I'm still your guy, just kill those generals (it's not like they've been winning the war) and we can make this all go away real quick."

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The problem is Putin can't flip now. He looks too weak. Letting Prigozhun in will be the end of the Putin regime now.

Wagner is now in control of Rostov, Russia's 11th largest city.

Hard to understate how insane this is. Rostov has over a million people, Russia's 11th most populated city and a military hub. It's like disgruntled Blackwater vets seizing San Diego against little to no resistance.

— Aric Toler (@AricToler) June 24, 2023

Prigozhun, if successful, will depose everyone below Putin, will claim that Putin was deceived by them. Will keep Putin as a figurehead but will control everything including Putin. Could then save face and withdraw from Ukraine (claiming that Putin was deceived as he said today). Or could double down and fully mobilize the country against Ukraine and unleash all kinds of crazy and evil.

jobu93 said:

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This won't last a week IMO and I think it's probably on the long side. I don't know if leaflets are a thing, psyops wise, but they need to pepper those front lines with that and/or radio transmissions regarding surrender or suffer the consequences mother Russia has her eyes turned away from you now. It's okay to go home or you can push the sunflowers.

Tactically- find those areas that were buttressed by Wagner and those are the areas to hit. Deep towards the rear and isolate the pockets of heaviest resistance.

The scarier side of this that this instability may kick off Belarus and or Poland just from jittery nerves making bad choices.

---

Russia relied heavily on Wagner. Them being out or even fighting against the regular army is probably the end of this special military operation.

He's got to equip and rest his force so I yield that. I also think you'd be right except that it's Russia and Putin.

Putin can present this and contain it with a long pause in Rostov.

Movement, flowing like water through the countryside, can sew the seeds of doubt. I fear that a long pause just seals this as contained.

I don't know how Russia is going to maintain their supply lines to Crimea, let alone the front line at this point.

Gordo14 said:

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I don't know how Russia is going to maintain their supply lines to Crimea, let alone the front line at this point.

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It's a turning point for sure. Still not sure who is pulling the strings. I really hope it's not us.

CondensedFogAggie said:

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Definitely Not A Cop said:

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He's in a Mexican standoff right now. He doesn't need to go to Moscow. He doesn't need to do anything except camp out where he is. True, Putin can blow him up 6 ways to Sunday, but not without putting Russian citizens at risk. And that makes the situation even worse for Russia.

He doesn't have to convince Putin he can win, he just has to convince Putin that he's got him in a stalemate no matter what and will embarrass him. And the longer he remains occupying a Russian town, the more embarrassing it gets.

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LMCane said:

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Capstone said:

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🚨 Wagner PMC tanks have surrounded the Defence Ministry building in Rostov-on-Don pic.twitter.com/EgcFPbjDi5

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) June 24, 2023

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well that's pretty interesting considering it is still night right now in Rostov- unless that is literally happening right now at daybreak.


not sure what conquering Rostov would even do to help Prigozhin, he needs to take Moscow and Putin or else he is eventually dead man walking.

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Yeah that is interesting. 6:21 am right now in Moscow.

Moscow is 132 miles away or 4.5 hours at 30mph.

I cant tell who is who. All of reddit says those tanks and soldiers are wagner but hell. Pgone could be in that building and thats orc army.

FriscoKid said:

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Gordo14 said:

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I don't know how Russia is going to maintain their supply lines to Crimea, let alone the front line at this point.

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It's a turning point for sure. Still not sure who is pulling the strings. I really hope it's not us.

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There is no way we would ever support Prigozhin. Any understanding of history would make that clear. I'm pretty sure Prigozhin wants to rule Russia and he saw the disaster this war is for Russia as his opportunity. Make yourself so valuable you can't be taken out. Build an army of convicts. Develop a cult of personality. And just when the government is fully committed make a run at the crown.

JFABNRGR said:

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LMCane said:

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Capstone said:

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🚨 Wagner PMC tanks have surrounded the Defence Ministry building in Rostov-on-Don pic.twitter.com/EgcFPbjDi5

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) June 24, 2023

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well that's pretty interesting considering it is still night right now in Rostov- unless that is literally happening right now at daybreak.


not sure what conquering Rostov would even do to help Prigozhin, he needs to take Moscow and Putin or else he is eventually dead man walking.

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Yeah that is interesting. 6:21 am right now in Moscow.

Moscow is 132 miles away or 4.5 hours at 30mph.

I cant tell who is who. All of reddit says those tanks and soldiers are wagner but hell. Pgone could be in that building and thats orc army.

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Prigozhin was in Ukraine yesterday. Russian state media is admitting that Wagner has control of Rostov. There's a video of a Russian journalist saying they told her they are Wagner.

Over 350km north of Rostov in Voronezh Oblast, it appears that a separate group of Wagner forces are pushing north on the M4 highway, engaging Russian forces outside of Pavlovsk at the moment. pic.twitter.com/hNg6oLqope

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 24, 2023

I think if I am Ukraine I hold off on attacking for maybe 2-3 days. Accelerate your artillery/HIMARs/storm shadow campaign, blowing everything of value up. Then see if you can get mass surrender or create a large breakthrough.

Insane developments, definitely not on my 2023 bingo cards.

How much shifting on the defensive lines is happening in Ukraine now? If I'm NATO I'm scouring SIGINT on every single square inch of those lines because a quick shift could lead to an absolute collapse.

Wow...

🚨 Russia: "Multiple Defense Ministry units involved in the war are moving under Prigozhin's command. Entire corps. Shoigu and Gerasimov's commanders are being removed."

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) June 24, 2023

I think I agree with you. I would add that you hit as far and deep as you can in hopes halting movement into your AOC

And Prigozhin can never be helped by the US. He's nothing more than a pirate captain.

Meantime, Belarusian presidential jet is chilling somewhere over Turkey. Lukashenka departured after midnight. He knew something is coming. #Prigozhin #counteroffensive pic.twitter.com/BN3TymWeoY

— Ukraine Front Lines (@EuromaidanPR) June 24, 2023

So I was a bit skeptical about this earlier when it was first reported... But as events are unfolding it seema more and more likely to be true.

This might be over in 2 or 3 days. I think you create as much chaos as you can.

Probe the lines and find out where things have weakened or their been a potential loss of the will to fight. If there is such a weakness, exploit it as quickly as possible.

Ukraine needs am edge and this is probably it