Interesting look at some Russian trenches at 9:21 near Kreminna. Per Rob, these are not their front lines.

At 15:26, you can see footage of how destroyed Bakhmut is. Terrible.

Mapping is at 16:04.

docb said:

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Appears to be way more effective than lobbing a bunch of mortar shells over hoping to hit someone. I'm sure this war is going to totally expand the use of drones in our military. Just think what you could do with dedicated units versus a Jerry rigged consumer model.

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Not only that...but wait until you have a large operator corp that can remotely guide an attack of hundreds of drones in one area in combination with ground infantry. Then right after that remotely guide a totally separate attack somewhere else. Would be a massive increase of manpower/training effectiveness. Ukraine has only hinted at what is possible so far. I'm sure the big wigs in the Pentagon are salivating over the possibilities.

The biggest thing though will be ease of development and future procurement given the small size and low cost.

The one thing I got was other than 3 old tanks, they essentially have little to no armor to support this. No BMPs, no light IFV. And I highly doubt they have a enough self propelled mortars for that to be realistic either.

Throwing assault groups to the wolved to be supported by WW2 era artillery.

Additional details on the new drones included in the latest aid package.

UAVs

Translation: " Map update from the Bakhmut region. The RUS have been stopped and are no longer attacking towards the village of Artemivske from the north. The AU recaptured some of the positions yesterday, but now the RUS is putting pressure on the AU forces again in the M03 road region. The situation is dynamic. The UA attacked yesterday with a small force..."

Aktualizacja mapy z regionu Bachmutu. RUS zostali powstrzymani i nie atakują już w kierunku wsi Artemiwśke z północy. UA wczoraj odbiło część pozycji, ale obecnie RUS ponownie naciska na siły UA w regionie drogi M03. Sytuacja jest dynamiczna. UA atakowało wczoraj małymi siłami... pic.twitter.com/8ypQlY0Nda

— Artur (@Artur_Micek) February 27, 2023

Interesting discussion of Putin's remaining options.

ESCALATION?

More details on the successful recent attack on a Russian AEW aircraft.

MAINSTAY

Something I have noticed is Russia is gradually resorting to static frontal warfare, as they lose the ability to maneuver and rapidly deploy logistically and tactically along the front due to losses. They've set up a defense in depth in many places but I am not convinced they have any real mobile quick response reserves.

I think they'd be vulnerable to any sort of substantial attack that penetrates the front and turns a flank and gets into rear areas. I think their response would be slow. The only think preventing this from being exploited is currently the Ukrainians aren't equipped and prepared to make this kind of attack either.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Something I have noticed is Russia is gradually resorting to static frontal warfare, as they lose the ability to maneuver and rapidly deploy logistically and tactically along the front due to losses. They've set up a defense in depth in many places but I am not convinced they have any real mobile quick response reserves.

I think they'd be vulnerable to any sort of substantial attack that penetrates the front and turns a flank and gets into rear areas. I think their response would be slow. The only think preventing this from being exploited is currently the Ukrainians aren't equipped and prepared to make this kind of attack either.

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This talks about much of what you mention. GRINDING ON

New Def Mon update:

FULL THREAD: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1630270274032775168.html

Ukraine update🧵 February 27th

Some signs of "relieve" south of Bakhmut but continued heavy fighting and RU advances north of the city.

It would be helpful if you like and retweet this tweet. pic.twitter.com/KYxbFeWuwh

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 27, 2023

UPDATES

A Uke drone found Russians trying to come up from the South near Bakhmut. A Uke tank took 'em out.

💪Танчик 93-ї бригади розбирає русняві позиції на півдні Бахмута

📍 https://t.co/StP3jI03lw pic.twitter.com/9n5QGMTogd

— DeepState UA (@Deepstate_UA) February 27, 2023

Today's SITREP.

Nice general news overview by our German friend.

The Cobasna Ammunition Depot itself is the Largest Arms Depot in Eastern Europe and contains up to 20,000 tons of Soviet-Era Arms and Munitions with reports done by the Moldavian Academy of Science stating that if the Depot was destroyed the explosion could be the size of the… https://t.co/IGfg5u1W7C pic.twitter.com/nYzb7b7gWd

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 27, 2023

The U.S. State Department stated today that it is now clear that China has decided to take a Side on the War in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/5uuWSrgM5b

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 27, 2023

Lukashenko is set to Travel to China sometime in the next 24 hours where he will reportedly meet with Chinese President Xi on Tuesday.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 27, 2023

Bakhmut footage through the eyes of a drone.

Russian war-blogger Girkin isn't in a good place:

Girkin is quite melancholic today about the prospects of the 3-day war: time is running out, air strikes have stopped, production of missiles isn't going well, and the president has checked out...https://t.co/eOEFHFCUnF pic.twitter.com/fcLfpgSuSG

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 27, 2023

Keep in mind Girkin isn't just a war blogger. He was instrumental in the 2014 events and is a war criminal.

All I really know about him is that he seems to know the opening theme to "Days of Our Lives."

Not a Bot said:

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Russian war-blogger Girkin isn't in a good place:

Girkin is quite melancholic today about the prospects of the 3-day war: time is running out, air strikes have stopped, production of missiles isn't going well, and the president has checked out...https://t.co/eOEFHFCUnF pic.twitter.com/fcLfpgSuSG

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 27, 2023

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It should be noted that Strelkov (Girkin) is a widely renowned pessimist. The things he says are probably true to a certain extent, but not quite *that* bad.

Waffledynamics said:

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Keep in mind Girkin isn't just a war blogger. He was instrumental in the 2014 events and is a war criminal.

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Highly recommend you read "85 Days in Slavyansk" by Alexander Zhuchkovsky. Fascinating first hand account of the early days of the conflict in 2014.

LMCane said:

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I don't think anyone believes that Iran would be sending their weapons and munitions to Ukraine

I believe the supposition is that these are MORE EVIDENCE of Iranian shipments to Russia which have now been captured by the UFA

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It also possible that they come from shipments from Iran to Houthi rebels in Yemen that were intercepted by the U.S. or other NATO countries, or even captured by Israel or Egypt en route to Hezbollah, and then forwarded to Ukraine. Or maybe intercepted en route to Syria. I think they're still under an arms embargo.

More Russian tactical incompetence from Vuhledar:



I really have no idea what their tactical concept was there. It seemed to be "Go really fast and we can get past the mine before it blows up." Scatterable mines of the type they're speculating have been used in this area are a major PITA. When I was a mech infantry platoon leader (back in the late 90s), the only really effective way to punch a whole through that type of mine field was with a MCLC (maybe more than one, depending on the depth of the mine field - MCLC is good for ~100m). Tanks with mine rollers or plows could be used, but they can only take so many hits before the plow or roller doesn't work any more.

It should be kept in mind that such a breach is a deliberate, combined arms operation, with artillery to suppress known or suspected enemy positions (because every obstacle should be covered by direct and/or indirect fires), smoke to obscure, infantry and armor to secure the breach site, and then the engineers make a hole.

There's even a handy pneumonic - SOSR. Suppress, Obscure, Secure, Reduce.

In this case, the Russians don't even seem to have tried any of that - just got on the road (I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, that the fields to either side are probably difficult at best to move through due to mud) and hauled ass. Maybe they thought that the previous attempt (see all the dead vehicles where the first tank hits the mine) had detonated all the mines?

And another video on how the Russians are using their tanks stupidly:

Ukraine’s Head of Intelligence has announced that they currently see no indication that the Chinese Government is preparing to send Lethal Aid to Russia for their War against Ukraine.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 28, 2023

I feel this is most likely an attempt by the Ukrainian Government to not yet demonize the Chinese Government so that they could possibly help with Diplomacy in the Future.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 28, 2023

2/ Several Russian milbloggers claimed that #Wagner took control of Yahidne, advanced south of the Berkhivka reservoir, and moved westward to threaten Bohdanivka. https://t.co/IAQBK1Wpjb pic.twitter.com/loREf22Tj1

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 28, 2023

A key takeaway from this 🧵:

The specter of limitless #Russian manpower is a myth. #Putin has already been forced to make difficult and suboptimal choices to offset the terrible losses his war has inflicted on the Russian military. https://t.co/P91egwVy6o https://t.co/44Lsg0ch6F

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 27, 2023

3/ #Russia can mobilize more manpower, and #Putin will likely do so rather than give up. But the costs to Putin and Russia of the measures he will likely need to take at this point will begin to mount rapidly. https://t.co/P91egwVy6o

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 27, 2023

Mobilized poorly trained reserves can be made to be somewhat effective in defense if adequately equipped and supported but they'll be almost useless in the attack without a lot of training and experience. About the only tactic they can execute is what they are being used for now: bullet catchers to probe defenses before follow on forces with combat experience make a real attack.

Smeghead4761 said:

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More Russian tactical incompetence from Vuhledar:



I really have no idea what their tactical concept was there. It seemed to be "Go really fast and we can get past the mine before it blows up." Scatterable mines of the type they're speculating have been used in this area are a major PITA. When I was a mech infantry platoon leader (back in the late 90s), the only really effective way to punch a whole through that type of mine field was with a MCLC (maybe more than one, depending on the depth of the mine field - MCLC is good for ~100m). Tanks with mine rollers or plows could be used, but they can only take so many hits before the plow or roller doesn't work any more.

It should be kept in mind that such a breach is a deliberate, combined arms operation, with artillery to suppress known or suspected enemy positions (because every obstacle should be covered by direct and/or indirect fires), smoke to obscure, infantry and armor to secure the breach site, and then the engineers make a hole.

There's even a handy pneumonic - SOSR. Suppress, Obscure, Secure, Reduce.

In this case, the Russians don't even seem to have tried any of that - just got on the road (I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, that the fields to either side are probably difficult at best to move through due to mud) and hauled ass. Maybe they thought that the previous attempt (see all the dead vehicles where the first tank hits the mine) had detonated all the mines?

And another video on how the Russians are using their tanks stupidly:

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In approximately 1-2 months they will have lost 2000 MBTs. In the last week I have seen 3 of their UR77 mine clearing units go kaboom. Orynx shows 28 of them destroyed and they probably dont have that many in operation or the means to supply munitions to them as HIMARS has probably checked off that block.

Smoke. I have only seen smoke used off of tanks a half dozen times and only in retreat. Zero from artillery, mortars, or INF from either side. Smoke would help both sides.

Looks like Ukraine had some long range drone fun.

Quote:

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Russian ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian drones were intercepted with electronic warfare means in Krasnodar Krai and Adygeya republic

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/28-february-russian-ministry-of-defense-claims-ukrainian

Quote:

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Damage after drone strike in Tuapse

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/28-february-damage-after-drone-strike-in-tuapse

Location is in the bottom right of the following screenshot:



Also:

Quote:

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UAV crashed 100 meters from the Voskresensk gas compressor station in the Kolomensky district of the Moscow region. The drone was found in the village of Gubastovo

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/28-february-the-uav-crashed-100-meters-from-the-voskresensk

Bottom right of this screenshot:



Zoomed out map for perspective. Remember: Ukraine is roughly the size of Texas.

Quote:

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Explosions at ammunition depot in Kadiivka

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/28-february-explosions-at-ammunition-depot-in-kadiivka

Smeghead4761 said:

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More Russian tactical incompetence from Vuhledar:



I really have no idea what their tactical concept was there. It seemed to be "Go really fast and we can get past the mine before it blows up." Scatterable mines of the type they're speculating have been used in this area are a major PITA. When I was a mech infantry platoon leader (back in the late 90s), the only really effective way to punch a whole through that type of mine field was with a MCLC (maybe more than one, depending on the depth of the mine field - MCLC is good for ~100m). Tanks with mine rollers or plows could be used, but they can only take so many hits before the plow or roller doesn't work any more.

It should be kept in mind that such a breach is a deliberate, combined arms operation, with artillery to suppress known or suspected enemy positions (because every obstacle should be covered by direct and/or indirect fires), smoke to obscure, infantry and armor to secure the breach site, and then the engineers make a hole.

There's even a handy pneumonic - SOSR. Suppress, Obscure, Secure, Reduce.

In this case, the Russians don't even seem to have tried any of that - just got on the road (I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, that the fields to either side are probably difficult at best to move through due to mud) and hauled ass. Maybe they thought that the previous attempt (see all the dead vehicles where the first tank hits the mine) had detonated all the mines?

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Man, the Russians are in such a pickle over this problem. The problem as I see it is timing. They can do the slow and methodical approach as prescribed but anything and everything that is in one area for too long gets hit with artillery. They do have some specialized equipment akin to our MCLCs but I doubt availability is high. Not sure about man portable versions like our APOBS.

The issues Russia is facing is nothing new though. Mines have hobbled attacking forces since their inception. I love to wargame and I tend to have a defensive mindset. Earthworks and mines everywhere! (Cue the Oprah You Get One meme). They are easy to use and CHEAP and also passive, which is it's greatest strength IMO. I am trying to look at their situation and damn me if I cannot think of an effective and feasible solution for the Russians either. They can't do slow and methodical, nearly positive of that. Equipment to do that is slow and just gets murdered over and over. The areas that need to be cleared are huge. You are not going to MCLC your away across miles and miles over open field. Infantry probing ahead is just drone bait and also get murdered.

With what they have, the shortened time they need (to keep pushing on the offensive), areas needed to traverse, etc…..just running fast and steady actually no joke may be the best approach for them. They are going to take losses but history has proven that sometimes those losses are very acceptable. Hell, one of our most inspirational warcries references this. "Damn the torpedos and full speed ahead!!" (Which were actually mines and not torpedoes in the modern sense). We also tried to outrun IED blasts in the Middle East for a pretty long while. Thinking that we could outrun the trigger man's finger. Results were….mixed.

Russia is in a bit of a lose/lose tactical situation here but unfortunately their mentality allows for it and may just keep pushing bodies into it.

Maxar has these images of the A-50 AWACs aircraft at the Machulishchy Air Base in Belarus from today. I can’t see any dramatic damage (image: @Maxar) pic.twitter.com/Smm8ULgqkh

— Gianluca Mezzofiore (@GianlucaMezzo) February 28, 2023

Quote:

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Local authorities in Transnistria announced a three-month training camp for those wishing to serve as a peacekeeper from March 1

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/28-february-local-authorities-in-transnistria-announced-a