***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,809,998 Views | 48283 Replies | Last: 9 min ago by pagerman @ work
DCPD158
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LMCane said:

DCPD158 said:

Can anyone see Poland taking a large chunk of western Ukraine if the country is about to fall? This is a hypothetical if Russian zergs from the East with a few million and overruns defenses and Kiev falls.
not a chance

this isn't 1939

and you really think Poland is going to want to invade a neighbor

after spending an entire year berating Russia for invading a neighbor?
I'm saying if (only if) Ukraine is going to fall. Not a chance they do if Ukraine is still in the fight
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
revvie
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DCPD158 said:

Can anyone see Poland taking a large chunk of western Ukraine if the country is about to fall? This is a hypothetical if Russian zergs from the East with a few million and overruns defenses and Kiev falls.
Poland no. Hungary yes.
nortex97
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Former Russian president Medvedev puts Polish border on negotiating block as an early demand.



Interesting times, indeed.
74OA
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First Polish Leo2 tanks delivered to Ukraine. More from Sweden soon, too.

Plus, up to 178 refurbished Leo1A5 are pledged, 90 updated T-72s already being delivered by Czechia and Poland is also sending 60 PT-91s.

Didn't Zelensky say he needed 300 more tanks to go on the offense?

TANKS
DCPD158
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74OA said:

First Polish Leo2 tanks delivered to Ukraine. More from Sweden soon, too.

Plus, up to 178 refurbished Leo1A5 are pledged, 90 updated T-72s already being delivered by Czechia and Poland is also sending 60 PT-91s.

Didn't Zelensky say he needed 300 more tanks to go on the offense?

TANKS
I think Russia is going to be in for a big surprise. These were developed to kill Russian armor.

I hope it is a freakin bloodbath
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
Rossticus
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From the Article:

"Victory will be achieved. We all want it to happen as soon as possible. And that day will come," said Medvedev. He predicted that tough negotiations with Ukraine and the West would follow that would culminate in "some kind of agreement."

But he said that deal would lack what he called "fundamental agreements on real borders" and not amount to an over-arching European security pact, making it vital for Russia to extend its own borders now.

"That is why it is so important to achieve all the goals of the special military operation. To push back the borders that threaten our country as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland," said Medvedev.
pagerman @ work
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Quote:

"That is why it is so important to achieve all the goals of the special military operation. To push back the borders that threaten our country as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland," said Medvedev.

And there you have it.

This is and has been Russia's goal from the beginning. This is to push back against NATO and to regain its security "buffer zones (countries)", meaning the former Warsaw Pact nations.
GAC06
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Russia just wants to be left alone, guys. You just need to ignore what they do, who they invade, and what they say
agent-maroon
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When has NATO ever been the aggressors with Russia? When has NATO ever acted as anything other than the defensive alliance that they were created to be? So sick of Russia claiming otherwise when the only thing they need fear from NATO is them fighting back when they invade one of their neighbors
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nortex97
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Kotkin discussion (Hoover Institute: pro Ukraine support) is interesting relative to the strategic questions involved (Euro's questioning whether too close to China etc).



I don't agree with some/much of his analyses but it is very well informed/reasoned. Posting just fyi as many might find it interesting.
Rossticus
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Thx!
ABATTBQ11
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NATO only expands because Russia is a crazy stalker ex that just won't go away. NATO doesn't grab up countries, countries want protection from Russia.
No Spin Ag
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Rossticus said:

From the Article:

"Victory will be achieved. We all want it to happen as soon as possible. And that day will come," said Medvedev. He predicted that tough negotiations with Ukraine and the West would follow that would culminate in "some kind of agreement."

But he said that deal would lack what he called "fundamental agreements on real borders" and not amount to an over-arching European security pact, making it vital for Russia to extend its own borders now.

"That is why it is so important to achieve all the goals of the special military operation. To push back the borders that threaten our country as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland," said Medvedev.


It's things like this that reinforce my belief that it would be best to provide Ukraine everything they'd need to just wipe the sheet out of Russia's military in Ukraine. The sooner the better for everyone, but more importantly, it keeps Russia from being the thorn in everyone's side. Putin's military needs to be treated like cancer and completely cut out at this point.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

It's things like this that reinforce my belief that it would be best to provide Ukraine everything they'd need to just wipe the sheet out of Russia's military in Ukraine. The sooner the better for everyone, but more importantly, it keeps Russia from being the thorn in everyone's side. Putin's military needs to be treated like cancer and completely cut out at this point.
Disagree. Leaving them with only a defensive/offensive force of nukes is not a good idea given that Russians are so friggin' paranoid and unpredictable,

The phrase,":Russians don't take a dump without havng a plan," is a line in a movie from the 80s. Not a fact.
Rossticus
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I think he meant wipe out whatever they send in-country. Not the Russian military as a whole (ie going into Russia). I agree that you much prefer an internally "stable" Russia to one whose military and government are in chaos. You just want a military and government that are weakened such that they can't coordinate effective activities outside their own borders.
Waffledynamics
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NEW TOOL ALERT:

Geoconfirmed will have a new website with a lot of geo-located, confirmed events featured.

No Spin Ag
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Rossticus said:

I think he meant wipe out whatever they send in-country. Not the Russian military as a whole (ie going into Russia). I agree that you much prefer an internally "stable" Russia to one whose military and government are in chaos. You just want a military and government that are weakened such that they can't coordinate effective activities outside their own borders.


Yep, that's what I meant.

Sorry I wasn't clear, Hawg.
mike0305
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Great find, thank you! You should possibly start a thread with that, would like to hear your dissenting opinion but don't want to derail.
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Dam at Pivnivchny pond was blown up in North-western Bakhmut
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/25-february-dam-at-pivnivchny-pond-was-blown-up-in-northwestern

Quote:

Mercenaries of Russian PMC Wagner have captured Yahidne village of Donetsk region
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/25-february-mercenaries-of-russian-pmc-wagner-have-captured

knj2417
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Are those two related, like the damn was blown to flood the road coming into bakhmut?
LMCane
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74OA said:

First Polish Leo2 tanks delivered to Ukraine. More from Sweden soon, too.

Plus, up to 178 refurbished Leo1A5 are pledged, 90 updated T-72s already being delivered by Czechia and Poland is also sending 60 PT-91s.

Didn't Zelensky say he needed 300 more tanks to go on the offense?

TANKS

let's talk tactics now rather than strategy

these tanks are coming in dribs and drabs.

4 from Poland, 10 from UK, 9 from Sweden ovef the course of weeks or months

do the Ukes send them to Bakhmut as soon as they can drive them across the border?

or keep them all in Poland until an entire regiment of tanks is combat ready and then deploy them en masse in a surprise attack?
MouthBQ98
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Personally I am very aggressive. I like to take the initiative and be on the attack. I'd say keep slowly giving ground in the east and causing as much damage as possible to the attackers. Their large integrated units and attack in the south and try to penetrate the defenses to cut off Crimea.

The issue is attacks are more difficult than defending regarding training and execution.
Waffledynamics
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Defmon Update:

Full Thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1629214694413148162.html

Waffledynamics
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74OA
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LMCane said:

74OA said:

First Polish Leo2 tanks delivered to Ukraine. More from Sweden soon, too.

Plus, up to 178 refurbished Leo1A5 are pledged, 90 updated T-72s already being delivered by Czechia and Poland is also sending 60 PT-91s.

Didn't Zelensky say he needed 300 more tanks to go on the offense?

TANKS

let's talk tactics now rather than strategy

these tanks are coming in dribs and drabs.

4 from Poland, 10 from UK, 9 from Sweden ovef the course of weeks or months

do the Ukes send them to Bakhmut as soon as they can drive them across the border?

or keep them all in Poland until an entire regiment of tanks is combat ready and then deploy them en masse in a surprise attack?
The 90 T-72's and 60 PT-91s are already in the process of being delivered and should be complete soon. I think roughly 100 of the Leo 1s will be in-country by Spring. Combined with the handful of Challengers and perhaps 50 or 60 Leo 2s, in total that will create the tank force Zelenskyy said he needed.

I think Ukraine accepts delivery of everything as soon as possible as a hedge against any Russian breakthrough this Winter, and uses the time for battlegroup training in-country before kicking off its own offensive in the Spring or early Summer.

But what do I know, really? <shrug>
Waffledynamics
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lb sand
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Very good interview with uke infantryman in bahkmut. Started off as a mechanic, now he describes himself as a grenade tosser.
GinMan
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This is an interesting read from all perspectives of the front lines and the conflict in Ukraine








Eliminatus
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MouthBQ98 said:

Personally I am very aggressive. I like to take the initiative and be on the attack. I'd say keep slowly giving ground in the east and causing as much damage as possible to the attackers. Their large integrated units and attack in the south and try to penetrate the defenses to cut off Crimea.

The issue is attacks are more difficult than defending regarding training and execution.
It's the training and execution which is the biggest problem in my book. As resilient as the Ukes have been, I have not seen a huge amount of extensive small unit or integrated combined arms attacks and maneuvers. Honestly, kinda the opposite. A lot of their earlier Fall advances were literally just single APCs or IFVs roaring up to Russian positions and Ukes dismounting and going full frontal attack. Great shock tactic for unsuspecting or undisciplined defenders but across a whole battle line....not sure of that will hold up.

Tanks work best in supported attacks. Even a few minutes of them outpacing infantry can be a deadly mistake. We know Ukes have been training on operating the new stuff but will that extend to actual tactics and platoon sized maneuvers? (ETA: Not saying Ukes have no experience period but they are bound to have new tank crews that will probably not have gone through a formal armor school will you learn the true craft of armored warfare. Ergo, cannot be expected to fight their new equipment to it's full capability) Have no idea really. I also love the idea of pushing an aggressive advance, but learning mistakes will happen and the Ukes simply don't have the hardware to do that often.

The other side of that coin is the slow and methodical advance of course and that is something that I see the Ukes pursuing. Maybe quick lightning strikes as Russian weak spots appear but as a whole I don't see them using them that differently than what they are already doing with the tanks they do have. Time will tell though and the Ukes have definitely shown some Schwarzkopf thinking in the past...

74OA
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Multiple Ukrainian battalions are receiving combined arms training by the US.

GRAF
nortex97
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Interesting thread.
Waffledynamics
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GinMan said:




This is one of the weirder Russian info campaigns. At some points you can see multiple accounts posting the same thing or almost the same thing, word for word. It's designed to rile up ignorant people.

Meanwhile, there's footage all over the place.
Waffledynamics
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That is interesting. I have several questions:

1. Is it legit?
2. Was the equipment bought or captured?
3. If bought, was the equipment bought from Iran or through the black market?
4. Could this possibly be pro-Ukrainian propaganda with Russia's government as the target in order to make them question Iran?

Curious.
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