Considering the Russian Black Sea fleet's overwhelming advantage in power, the current naval situation is a success for Ukraine.

STALEMATE

pagerman @ work said:

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nortex97 said:

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🔹 Winter stalemate (December to February 2023)

Russia invaded Ukraine last year with 190,000 troops. There are now more than 300,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine with a further 150,000 in reserve pic.twitter.com/GjsWbW7g9a

— The Times and The Sunday Times (@thetimes) February 23, 2023

Good thread/maps of the evolving front/lines.

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It's interesting (and no, I mean nothing by this comparison, good or bad, just that I find it interesting visually) how much the occupied area of Ukraine reminds me of South Vietnam.

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Holy crap. Good catch.

Rossticus said:

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Oh, absolutely. I just meant, unless I'm mistaken, the pro-Russian contingent has control of the depot.

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Ya pretty sure that's correct. I think there's something like 1,500 peacekeepers there, not sure what the national makeup is between Russia, Transnistria, and Moldova.

RebelE Infantry said:

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Rossticus said:

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Oh, absolutely. I just meant, unless I'm mistaken, the pro-Russian contingent has control of the depot.

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Ya pretty sure that's correct. I think there's something like 1,500 peacekeepers there, not sure what the national makeup is between Russia, Transnistria, and Moldova.

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I believe the "peacekeepers" are all Russian. Moldova has pushed to have a multinational force and Russia has refused.

txags92 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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Rossticus said:

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Oh, absolutely. I just meant, unless I'm mistaken, the pro-Russian contingent has control of the depot.

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Ya pretty sure that's correct. I think there's something like 1,500 peacekeepers there, not sure what the national makeup is between Russia, Transnistria, and Moldova.

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I believe the "peacekeepers" are all Russian. Moldova has pushed to have a multinational force and Russia has refused.

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Ya I just ran across a tweet with some more detail. 1,500ish Russians in addition to 10k or so local forces.

Today's SITREP.

Many, including the Chinese, are drawing a lot of lessons from the tactics/mistakes on both sides in Ukraine.

China has called for peace talks and an end to sanctions on Russia.

So, the big anniversary speeches and Russian milblogger rants turned out to be wet farts. No declaration of war or air war.

UK MOD forecasts a strategy of attrition by Russia

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia attempting to exhaust Ukrainian resources rather than seize extensive territory.

The pivot follows Russia's forced retreat from Kyiv Oblast in April and failure to make gains in the east and the south in recent weeks, U.K. Defense Ministry said. pic.twitter.com/MJNVbADhcq

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 24, 2023

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NEW: The Kremlin may be preparing false flag attacks on the Chernihiv Oblast international border to coerce Belarus into the war - Institute for the Study of War

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) February 24, 2023

sclaff said:

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So, the big anniversary speeches and Russian milblogger rants turned out to be wet farts. No declaration of war or air war.

UK MOD forecasts a strategy of attrition by Russia

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia attempting to exhaust Ukrainian resources rather than seize extensive territory.

The pivot follows Russia's forced retreat from Kyiv Oblast in April and failure to make gains in the east and the south in recent weeks, U.K. Defense Ministry said. pic.twitter.com/MJNVbADhcq

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 24, 2023

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A stalemated war of attrition is what it has been basically all winter (at least, if based nothing else then on the movement of the front lines for the past 4 months), this is not too surprising.

A lot of the 'dramatic offensive about to start' stuff is clickbait for various sides/outlets/journalists/politicians.

Russia trying to bleed Uke resources is fine in a vacuum but it doesn't make sense to bleed material. The Ukes have better equipment, weapons, food, kit because the West is their arsenal.

The only thing Russia could hope to win is attrition bodies but I think if it ever got to that point those providing material would then send troops.

I Recently re read Red Storm Rising and it struck me that while the Bear had more teeth back in the 80s it was still expected to have short legs so to speak with logistical issues. Clancy nailed that.

jobu93 said:

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Russia trying to bleed Uke resources is fine in a vacuum but it doesn't make sense to bleed material. The Ukes have better equipment, weapons, food, kit because the West is their arsenal.

The only thing Russia could hope to win is attrition bodies but I think if it ever got to that point those providing material would then send troops.

I Recently re read Red Storm Rising and it struck me that while the Bear had more teeth back in the 80s it was still expected to have short legs so to speak with logistical issues. Clancy nailed that.

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Given where the war is today, bleeding material actually makes a lot of sense. The West may be the arsenal, but for how long? You already hear the noise about how much and what the US is giving to Ukraine. This isn't going to go away and will continue to be amplified. Europe cares but again, how long will they care. In addition, Europe hasn't given near as much as US so if the US decides to stop its support I would expect the majority of EU to as well.

All that to say, drawing this out, forcing Ukraine to bleed material and get resupplied by the West is only going to give people in those countries talking points about how much is being sent and what is it gaining,.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3308633/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Quote:

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Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) is announcing a new security assistance package to reaffirm the steadfast support of the United States for Ukraine's brave defenders and strengthen Ukraine's air defenses. This package, which totals $2 billion, is being provided under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) as part of our commitment to Ukraine's long-term security.

Specifically, the United States is committing additional Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and counter-UAS and electronic warfare detection equipment, as well as critical ammunition stocks for artillery and precision fires capabilities that will bolster Ukraine's ability to repel Russian aggression.

Capabilities in this security assistance package include:

Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
Additional 155mm artillery rounds;
Munitions for laser-guided rocket systems;
CyberLux K8 UAS;
Switchblade 600 UAS;
Altius-600 UAS;
Jump 20 UAS;
Counter-UAS and electronic warfare detection equipment;
Mine clearing equipment;
Secure communications support equipment;
Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.

Unlike Presidential Drawdown, USAI is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities rather than delivering equipment that is drawn down from DoD stocks. This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional capabilities to Ukraine's Armed Forces.

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I thought Russia was going to roll through Ukraine pretty quickly even after seeing that the Ukes were standing and fighting.

My initial impressions were heavily influenced by a television news feed I saw very early in the initial assault where a news crew drives up to an airport outside Kiev and there is a group of soldiers setting up a checkpoint. The reporters can hear gunfire in the distance and ask 'where are the Russians?' The soldiers said they were Russian.

At that point, despite the Ghost of Kiev memes, I thought the war was already lost and it was just going to be the Russians mopping up pockets of resistance and hanging civilian 'Nazis' from lampposts to quell any resistance from within Kiev.

Glad to see the Ukes still have their country.

For year two predictions/fan fiction, I expect the Russian spring offensive to stall and Russia will respond with a full mobilization, drafting as many a 5m conscripts, and opening new fronts from Belarus and Moldova.

Uke's spring offensive will focus on Melitopol. I suspect the Ukes have little interest in urban fighting or leveling the city and will just lay siege to the city like they did in Kherson.

In the fall I expect that congressional support for new arms shipments will gets trickier and the 2024 presidential election campaign will get into gear and start to put a brighter focus on the costs of the war and Europe's failure to contribute more.

In an attempt to get a negotiated peace prior to the elections, Biden will secretly ship ATACMS to Ukraine and the main spans of the Kerch Bridge will be dropped into the strait on New Year's Eve. With all of Crimea under sieve, The Russians go to the negotiating table hoping to buy time to arm and train their new 5m man meat shield army.

nortex97 said:

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https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3308633/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Quote:

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Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) is announcing a new security assistance package to reaffirm the steadfast support of the United States for Ukraine's brave defenders and strengthen Ukraine's air defenses. This package, which totals $2 billion, is being provided under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) as part of our commitment to Ukraine's long-term security.

Specifically, the United States is committing additional Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and counter-UAS and electronic warfare detection equipment, as well as critical ammunition stocks for artillery and precision fires capabilities that will bolster Ukraine's ability to repel Russian aggression.

Capabilities in this security assistance package include:

Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
Additional 155mm artillery rounds;
Munitions for laser-guided rocket systems;
CyberLux K8 UAS;
Switchblade 600 UAS;
Altius-600 UAS;
Jump 20 UAS;
Counter-UAS and electronic warfare detection equipment;
Mine clearing equipment;
Secure communications support equipment;
Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.

Unlike Presidential Drawdown, USAI is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities rather than delivering equipment that is drawn down from DoD stocks. This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional capabilities to Ukraine's Armed Forces.

---

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If I'm reading this correctly, this is going to be newly built stuff. Amazing.

This would be a shift from the previous aid packages which were drawn from existing reserves, yes?

Robert C. Christian said:

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jobu93 said:

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Russia trying to bleed Uke resources is fine in a vacuum but it doesn't make sense to bleed material. The Ukes have better equipment, weapons, food, kit because the West is their arsenal.

The only thing Russia could hope to win is attrition bodies but I think if it ever got to that point those providing material would then send troops.

I Recently re read Red Storm Rising and it struck me that while the Bear had more teeth back in the 80s it was still expected to have short legs so to speak with logistical issues. Clancy nailed that.

---

Given where the war is today, bleeding material actually makes a lot of sense. The West may be the arsenal, but for how long? You already hear the noise about how much and what the US is giving to Ukraine. This isn't going to go away and will continue to be amplified. Europe cares but again, how long will they care. In addition, Europe hasn't given near as much as US so if the US decides to stop its support I would expect the majority of EU to as well.

All that to say, drawing this out, forcing Ukraine to bleed material and get resupplied by the West is only going to give people in those countries talking points about how much is being sent and what is it gaining,.

---

A lot of people complaining about all the war materiel that the US and NATO supplying Ukraine. My overall take is that most of it older stuff that was going to be phased out or in storage. It has also sped up the process of replacing Soviet era stuff in Eastern Europe with more modern standardized NATO equipment.

Also what have we learned about our own weaponry and how have they performed against a peer military power and what changes will be made to improve their effectiveness. Hard to put a dollar value on that.

Capabilities in this security assistance package include:

Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
Additional 155mm artillery rounds;
Munitions for laser-guided rocket systems;
CyberLux K8 UAS;
Switchblade 600 UAS;
Altius-600 UAS;
Jump 20 UAS;
Counter-UAS and electronic warfare detection equipment;
Mine clearing equipment;
Secure communications support equipment;
Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.

Unlike Presidential Drawdown, USAI is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities rather than delivering equipment that is drawn down from DoD stocks. This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional capabilities to Ukraine's Armed Forces.

Looks like they are getting some high tech longer range drones capable of direct attack or ISR. Some of these likely to be used as laser targeting platforms for some of the laser guided munitions previously announced.

I can't find any info on Cyberlux K8 but some of their other products are smaller video carrying platforms.

I am sure the SB600 will be welcome. There have been complaints about the 300. Range 90KM to target with anti armor capability is pretty strong.

https://www.avinc.com/tms/switchblade-600

Altius 600 launched from anything, 4 hour endurance, 3-7LB payload, ISR or Kinetic, range of 440KM. Good chance this gets laser.

https://areai.com/altius-600-2/

Jump 20 UAS. VTOL with 14HR endurance. 185KM range. Coms relay.

https://www.avinc.com/uas/jump-20

I would like to see them get some more Arty; of the 130+ M777s they have lost 40 alone to the russians. Certainly a few more to wear and tear.

Ukraine is going to great lengths to document Russian war crimes. This clip, for example, shows just a portion of the ordinance which has hit Kharkiv alone, many pieces catalogued by GPS impact point.

EVIDENCE

revvie said:

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Robert C. Christian said:

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jobu93 said:

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Russia trying to bleed Uke resources is fine in a vacuum but it doesn't make sense to bleed material. The Ukes have better equipment, weapons, food, kit because the West is their arsenal.

The only thing Russia could hope to win is attrition bodies but I think if it ever got to that point those providing material would then send troops.

I Recently re read Red Storm Rising and it struck me that while the Bear had more teeth back in the 80s it was still expected to have short legs so to speak with logistical issues. Clancy nailed that.

---

Given where the war is today, bleeding material actually makes a lot of sense. The West may be the arsenal, but for how long? You already hear the noise about how much and what the US is giving to Ukraine. This isn't going to go away and will continue to be amplified. Europe cares but again, how long will they care. In addition, Europe hasn't given near as much as US so if the US decides to stop its support I would expect the majority of EU to as well.

All that to say, drawing this out, forcing Ukraine to bleed material and get resupplied by the West is only going to give people in those countries talking points about how much is being sent and what is it gaining,.

---

A lot of people complaining about all the war materiel that the US and NATO supplying Ukraine. My overall take is that most of it older stuff that was going to be phased out or in storage. It has also sped up the process of replacing Soviet era stuff in Eastern Europe with more modern standardized NATO equipment.

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To date most of the weapons delivered have been draw downs of existing inventories with most of that old, obsolete, or expiring hardware while most of the money being spent has been on modernizing US inventories.

Without being able to reach into older air power munitions, we're running out of hand-me-downs to give away. If we could start delivering old F-16s, we could even open up old stocks of dumb bombs.

Europe will care for a long time because it's in their backyard.

For one, Europe doesn't like the idea of Russian expansionism because they're in line at some point. It may be decades down the road, but Russia has shown a willingness to take small bites, either politically, economically, or kinetically. It's culturally built into their leadership, and you're not advancing and moving up the political ranks unless you're onboard, guaranteeing that the next Putin will be just like the current one.

For two, all of the refugees created by Russian conflicts will likely end up in Europe. Europe doesn't want to deal with the immediate fallout of Russian expansionism anymore then they want to deal with the future fallout.

More talk of seizing Russia's currency reserves frozen in western banks to help rebuild Ukraine.

REPARATIONS

I know we all say this is "morally correct" to do, but this is a crazy slippery slope. This is flat stealing currency that was placed into multiple financial systems. Weird precedent it could set that if you cross NATO, we just steal your money.

I would prefer to see all assets frozen and worked into any kind of peace treaty, if that happens. Make Russia agree to "donating" all frozen assets to Ukraine.

DeBoss said:

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I know we all say this is "morally correct" to do, but this is a crazy slippery slope. This is flat stealing currency that was placed into multiple financial systems. Weird precedent it could set that if you cross NATO, we just steal your money.

I would prefer to see all assets frozen and worked into any kind of peace treaty, if that happens. Make Russia agree to "donating" all frozen assets to Ukraine.

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The precedent for war reparations has generally included a peace treaty in which the aggressor nation agrees (i.e., is compelled) to pay damages to the states it attacked.

I doubt Moscow ever agrees to a formal peace treaty because it would require de facto acceptance that Ukraine really is a sovereign state and that Russia is the aggressor, both directly contrary to Putin's assertions. I also doubt Moscow will ever voluntarily pay reparations, treaty or no treaty, under any circumstances legal or otherwise.

But for every legal problem there is a legal solution. The lawyers just need to get on with updating the standard for reparations which better fits today's world and if reparations aren't a fit for this instance, then develop another lawful solution that achieves the same outcome.

Regardless, this is a clearcut case of brutal aggression. Russian barbarians cannot destroy Ukraine and then be allowed to hide behind civilized conventions to stiff-arm financial responsibility for their actions.

A truce/armistice with a set line that is 'temporary' (like the one between the Koreas) is much more tactically/strategically attainable than a formal 'peace treaty' I think for both sides. Russia's currency has actually done fairly well from what I have read, over the past year in terms of foreign currency reserves/valuation etc.

$300 billion in assets that have been frozen will be interesting to follow as a tool to negotiate with, should…negotiations ever actually start. I'd agree with at least using the oligarch's assets as reparations.

The problem that concerns me sits squarely between Poland and Lithuania. The Kaliningrad enclave. Part of Russia. Isolated.

Between it: the Baltic UN members of Lithuania and Latvia, and the Russian puppet state of Belarus.

I don't know how long you put off Russia from trying to make a land bridge there or start playing games with Baltic state politics. There may be real value to avoiding a hot battle between NATO and Russia that directly involves the USA by helping Ukraine disable the Russian military as much as possible in a proxy war. I know Russia is very unlikely to provoke a war that brings in all of NATO but Russian geopolitical doctrine is currently controlled by a group that considers dominance of the Baltic region necessary for Russian security.

I think long term Ukraine will probably have to negotiate much of Russian gains as a security tradeoff for recognition, but Russia is going to have to be contained long term so long as it is dominated by expansionist ideology.

Interesting theory, but I have a hard time Russia would start a war with NATO over Kalingrad. They've tried to give it away not only to Lithuania (twice), but also to Germany in 1990.

nortex97 said:

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A truce/armistice with a set line that is 'temporary' (like the one between the Koreas) is much more tactically/strategically attainable than a formal 'peace treaty' I think for both sides. Russia's currency has actually done fairly well from what I have read, over the past year in terms of foreign currency reserves/valuation etc.

$300 billion in assets that have been frozen will be interesting to follow as a tool to negotiate with, should…negotiations ever actually start. I'd agree with at least using the oligarch's assets as reparations.

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Not going to happen. The Korean DMZ is basically where the line was when the north invaded. Unless Russia agrees to pull back, Ukraine isn't going to go for it. When it's all said and done, they're not going to settle for millions displaced, hundreds of thousands dead, and giving up valuable territory. That's a Russian victory any way you slice it. Russian leadership isn't going to survive hundreds of thousands of casualties with nothing to show for it. It's all or nothing for survival at this point

Well, that's good to know. If that is the case, then containment through NATO treaty may remain a viable strategy.

I think in the end NATO can help Ukraine fight for a new defensible border to be established but they'll probably have to negotiate away territory to end the war. I'd say they have until 2024 to get in a better position if they can but after that, there will be increasing pressure to negotiate versus fight. I think Russia knows this, too, and is willing to grind forward to keep as much as they can until talks start.

Can anyone see Poland taking a large chunk of western Ukraine if the country is about to fall? This is a hypothetical if Russian zergs from the East with a few million and overruns defenses and Kiev falls.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Well, that's good to know. If that is the case, then containment through NATO treaty may remain a viable strategy.

I think in the end NATO can help Ukraine fight for a new defensible border to be established but they'll probably have to negotiate away territory to end the war. I'd say they have until 2024 to get in a better position if they can but after that, there will be increasing pressure to negotiate versus fight. I think Russia knows this, too, and is willing to grind forward to keep as much as they can until talks start.

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Ukraine needs to totally cut off Crimea.

DCPD158 said:

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Can anyone see Poland taking a large chunk of western Ukraine if the country is about to fall? This is a hypothetical if Russian zergs from the East with a few million and overruns defenses and Kiev falls.

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not a chance

this isn't 1939

and you really think Poland is going to want to invade a neighbor

after spending an entire year berating Russia for invading a neighbor?