***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,817,425 Views | 48309 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by 74OA
Waffledynamics
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AG
Posted about 8 hours ago on LiveUAMap:

Quote:

Big fire in Berdiansk
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/19-february-big-fire-in-berdiansk

Video can be found here: https://t.me/dneproperatyv/55800

Seems like the port cities in the Sea of Azov are having some regular cigarette problems.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Shared in an OSINT server I'm in:

https://t.me/marksman_osman/687

Quote:

The situation about Bakhmut: From the side of Ivanivske, ****s are crawling like ants, using meat and shooting. There is little artillery, instead of it: SPG, AGS, RPG and large machine guns. Today, despite all the attempts of the enemy to break through the defenses, the 24th Aidar Separate Assault Battalion carried out an assault on the Wagner enemy positions and reached new frontiers. In the area of Klishchiivka, there are occasional shootings and attempts to move forward. Under control we supress them with AGS and "axes" [777s] (in case of accumulation) In Yahidne, from the northern side of the city, ****s have now seeped through a little, wanting to break into the village, and then to the road. Counter-assault work is underway to dispose of convicts Rumors about Stupochky is not true, everything is under control
74OA
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The information war is nonstop and people can be more easily gulled when lies are skillfully dressed up as the truth.

PROPAGANDA
Ulysses90
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Ours, not theirs. The Sarmat hypersonic missile about which there has been so much hyperventilation is a hypersonic glide vehicle mounted on renovated and repurposed liquid fueled rocket that was designed in the early 1970s and last manufactured in 1982.

I don't question at all that Putin has enough mission capable missiles and nuclear warheads to destroy every major city in the US. However, I also believe that neither he nor Shogu nor his ICBM forces know which missiles and warheads make up that n7mber.

Consider the dog that didn't bark when the Nordstream pipeline was sabotaged. Regardless of whether you believe that Putin ordered it, Biden ordered it, or Zelensky or the Israelis did it, Russia denies responsibility and claims to be the injured party. To convince the world of that claim, the reaction should be no different if Putin and Russia want to deter aggression.

If I were in Putin's shoes when Nordstream was destroyed I would want to sent a very strong message to deter future attacks against critical infrastructure **and** to scare the west into shutting off arms shipments to Ukraine. They have such a deterrent demonstration in their book of tricks. It's one that Kim Jong Un has used repeatedly which is a nuclear test.

I don't for a minute believe that Putin's respect for the 1962 test ban prevented him from detonating a nuke in the Arctic Ocean. The risk of a fizzle with a small release of radiation detectable from a satellite would confirm the suspicion that his ICBM fleet is in no better shape than his fleet of military trucks and tanks. The dud rate on every weapon is the Russian arsenal has exceeded worst case estimates of the IC. It's likely that the ICBMs would be the same.
B-1 83
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How great of shape does it have to be in? He's still not letting that genie out of the bottle.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
Eliminatus
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There has been a weird criticism of casual observers for years of never being able to really clearly see the enemy from war footage and pictures. "They aren't even shooting at anything!"

This still capture (From Uke trench defense video a few days ago) here is wild to me. I thought we were living in an incredibly open warfare scene in the ME and it doesn't get close to what we see now.



This picture for some reason just speaks volumes to me. This is what war looks like in large parts of Ukraine. Crystal clear. Two sides clearly depicted so close to each other. Just a stunning picture I wanted to share ot highlight both how far we've come in technology and how little has changed as we see this trench fight. The dichotomy is so powerful to me.

Looking closely though, I will say that the Russian looks adequately equipped for a line grunt. A little hodgepodge looking perhaps but not uncommon in infantry forces. Only thing I see that is iffy is lack of helmet? Not sure if that is by choice or lack of helmets. Though I know if I had decided to not wear my Kevlar outside the wire my squad leader would have gleefully buttstroked me into oblivion. Can't imagine discipline is top notch right now over there on the front lines. AK12? Also, can't look over the babyface either unfortunately.
AgLA06
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Well, if I remember correctly that was one of the Wagner Group follow up assaults and he was part of the elite assult units. They don't attack until the cannon fodder assaults in mass over and over until the Uke trench is low on ammo and has enough casualties they think they can take it.

So in theory outside of Russian special forces, that's as good as it gets for Russian infantry and equipment. Which is telling to me.
CS78
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Eliminatus said:

AK12?


Video seemed odd that his flank was exposed to a trench with that much action going in and out.

Gun is probably a standard Izhmash ak74m with an upgraded lower foregrip. The squared off gas block is exactly like the Saiga AKs, made in the same factory, that were sold in the US for a number of years.



The AK12 has an integrated front sight base/ gas block. And the rear sight is at the rear of the dust cover/ rail.

Waffledynamics
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Mapping section at 17:03:

JFABNRGR
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He broke his pistol grip off the tan rifle in that firefight. There is another video slowed way down showing a russian rpg blowing up right in front of him above the hole where his ammo caddy hung out. I will try to locate tomorrow.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/116t192/i_didnt_notice_at_first_but_that_trench_rambo/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

and if you think that image is iconic watch this video and see how much you want to believe its from WWII. Also the power of a sniper(s).

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1164b9t/a_drone_watches_russian_soldiers_from_the_155th/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
GAC06
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Your input here is appreciated, please keep it up
Waffledynamics
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Fascinating Perun video (as always) of more of a grand strategy view for Russia. I'm only partly into it, but it's interesting. As usual for Perun, his videos are long form and incredibly informative.

JFABNRGR
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More vid of Golden AK the "Predator" defending his trench. 5 minutes of sustained fire coming in all around him. You can see the splatter debris landing in the trench from in front of him and the actual splatters multiple times to the right. Goggles and eye pro fog up a lot but that is a piece of protection often overlooked.

This video is immediately AFTER the first 5 min where he destroyed the BMP and killed the very close orc. Translation in the comments, but he is asking if they should retreat or if the drone is coming back to help support. He is told to do his job and that 8-10 soldiers are coming to support but no drone. He also states they are running out of ammo.

This guy must have the full armor of God covering him. I would have called in "Broken Arrow" and joined my ammo caddy in the hole on my knees in prayer.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/11724wc/new_video_from_golden_ak_ukrainian_rambo_he_likes/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3


74OA
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[There was a reason your prior post was deleted. That should be the subject of another thread -- Staff]
AgLA06
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That dude is a warrior.

It amazes me how well armed and equipped they are. The more video I see the more armorment they seem to have. Several AKs, PK?, dozens of GP-25?, lots of RPG rounds, lots of grenades.

People want to make fun of the guy loading, but he's force multiplying by keeping the warrior fed. Better use of him than shooting over his head out of a trench.
JFABNRGR
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AgLA06 said:

That dude is a warrior.

It amazes me how well armed and equipped they are. The more video I see the more armorment they seem to have. Several AKs, PK?, dozens of GP-25?, lots of RPG rounds, lots of grenades.

People want to make fun of the guy loading, but he's force multiplying by keeping the warrior fed. Better use of him than shooting over his head out of a trench.
He is helping but the best tactic is to be able to quickly change your own magazines while inflicting maximum violence of action on the enemy while covering multiple fields of fire. The last 5 minutes they were vulnerable on the left flank of the trench.

I would love to see some of the thousands of claymores used that have been provided them. It would also be interesting to know the backstory on this trench. The trees around it have been obliterated by mortar/arty. Did these guys survive all that barrage or was this previously a russian trench that was taken over.

On the flip side of well armed it seems that the russians didn't have very many grenades or not smart enough to use them. In the first 5 minutes they use an RPG which blew up mere feet away but that shooter must have been taken out or ran out of rounds. Still not sure how they survived that. I don't think there is overhead drone video of this but if there is they will make movies out of it.

AgLA06
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Who knows, but the trench and bunker layout seem to indicate it's a Uke trench. The Russians were supposedly supported by a BMP if I remember correctly. He took it out with the RPG in the other videos.
PJYoung
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[Let's try to keep the political discussion on other threads. The Biden trip to Kyiv is more of a political topic that a tactics and strategy topic -- Staff]
marcel ledbetter
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Right after he shoots that orc for the second time, you can see on or two other soldiers off to his right through the trees.
FIDO95
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That was a great video. Thanks for sharing. I was unaware of the writings and doctrine that are perhaps influencing current Russian policy (Dugin & Primakov). To the degree that that is true, it would apply shade to the comments that Russia was simply acting in a way to stop NATO expansion.

I have to admit I am somewhat sympathetic to the claim by Russia that NATO expansion to their border was an extensional threat to their existence (what Zeihan often claims). I wouldn't be too happy if Mexico or Canada came under some kind of Warsaw Pact alliance. However, if it is true that the powers that be in Russia have adopted a more imperialistic view, then this conflict was not avoidable. NATO expansion and Nazis were just excuses for a bigger plan.
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74OA
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Starting to look more and more like the M1 "decision" was primarily to help Germany off of its own political hook and get Leo's moving?

TANKS
aggiehawg
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Should Putin be looking at his flanks?

Quote:

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said he wants to create his own private military company to compete with Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, RadarOnline.com has discovered.

Kadyrov, a loyalist of President Vladimir Putin, spoke very highly about what the Wagner Group has been able to accomplish while fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine.
Quote:

Wagner is led by Putin's close ally Yevgeny Prigozhin. In ongoing battles led by the group, Russia has been fighting for control over the eastern Donetsk city of Bakhmut for months, which is now reaching a critical point as the war rages on.

"I can not stop rejoicing at the success," Kadyrov wrote in a post on Telegram. "It seems that the private military company managed to achieve very impressive results."

"We can say confidently that Wagner has shown its mettle in military terms and drawn a line under discussions about whether or not such private military companies are needed. When my service to the state is completed, I seriously plan to compete with our dear brother [Prigozhin] and create a private military company. I think it will all work out," he continued.
Quote:

Although Kadyrov is impressed by Prigozhin's actions, some are speculating by his recent comments that he may be planning an exit strategy in case Putin loses his grip on power in Russia.

According to a Moscow-based expert, "This move is Kadyrov preparing for the period after Putin, when he intends to have his own large military force either to broker power in Russia perhaps in a civil war or even lead his own fiefdom out to a breakaway."
LINK
74OA
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In addition to the many billions of Euro's spent to shelter millions of Ukrainian refugees and providing military and financial assistance, EU countries have also borne the economic impact of Putin's war. They deserve more credit than they are getting for holding the line.

COSTS
Waffledynamics
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New DefMon update:

Full Thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1627726721784123393.html



Important tweet about Bakhmut:

Waffledynamics
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aggiehawg
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What am I looking at?
GAC06
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Likely phosphorus. Used to make smoke or burn buildings
JFABNRGR
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aggiehawg said:

What am I looking at?


Nasty stuff. Explodes in air and rains molten death burning everything it touches. In Vietnam famously called willy pete for white phosphorus. I forgot what this the new stuff is but someone will add.

Edit update. I thought there was a newer name for this but apparently its still white phosphorus. Burns like 4000 degrees. You dont want to be around it.
aggiehawg
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Thanks.
aezmvp
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GAC06 said:

Likely phosphorus. Used to make smoke or burn buildings
The Russians have used a lot of those munitions. Not new.
74OA
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Specialized armor to be delivered to Ukraine, along with other new aid.

BFIST
Not a Bot
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These developments all seem very promising.













Who?mikejones!
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Probably a lot of nothing
rebag00
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As dumb as they have been, I don't think the Kremlin is going to tip anyone off to something not yet known via billboards and bus stops. Likely just bluster and threats which lead to their forces repeatedly stepping on their dicks again. Rinse, repeat.
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