***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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74OA
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The Fife said:

I'm amazed there are any US citizens still in Russia aside from people associated with the embassy.
Lots of dual citizens.
aggiehawg
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74OA said:

The Fife said:

I'm amazed there are any US citizens still in Russia aside from people associated with the embassy.
Lots of dual citizens.
Dual citizens with the former Soviet Union? I didn't think Russia even allowed dual citizenship? Why Snowden had to wait so long?
ABATTBQ11
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aunuwyn08 said:

Quote:

This is just another "US backed color revolution." Moscow doesn't interfere in the domestic politics of its neighbors or work to install puppet governments.


Someone's obviously never heard of little green men before.


Someone's obviously never heard of sarcasm before.
Blackbeard94
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Waffledynamics said:

"Escalation only comes from the defense" is the hottest take I can't stand seeing over and over and over again.

Give Ukraine what it needs to beat the **** out of Russia. They didn't start this war. People need to stop pretending they're the ones causing the problem.


Right, like the rape victim needs to show a little less skin. Please. Russia is the aggressor. They need to be beaten and humiliated fully. That will prevent future wars.
74OA
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Today's SITREP.

knj2417
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Theres something about this that is off, can't quite put my finger on it

Edit: wrong clip pasted. The clip I was looking at was volodymyr solovyov's son draft dodging to pursue a modling career. See if this link works

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/111ps68/the_son_of_volodymyr_solovyov_danylo_solovyov/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Waffledynamics
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knj2417 said:

Theres something about this that is off, can't quite put my finger on it

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/111jiwl/ukrainian_soldier_makes_a_trench_friend_and_his/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Looks like trench humor to me. Heck, you can see worse in old British WWI footage (highly recommend They Shall Not Grow Old).

What's off to you?
knj2417
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I thought that was legit, just seemed off that Russia's top war correspondent has a son who is a draft dodger
Waffledynamics
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knj2417 said:

I thought that was legit, just seemed off that Russia's top war correspondent has a son who is a draft dodger
Is that really surprising, though? If you've seen any of the Russian propaganda TV clips, it seems par for the course.

These people are nuts. I fail to understand how it's so effective internally. It should be an easy information warfare victory for the West.
nortex97
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Not a Bot said:

Ukraine claims to have killed some thing like 1500 or more Russian troops in one day last week. This may have been the battle they were talking about.
https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2023/02/13/the-short-lives-of-former-russian-prisoners-used-as-cannon-fodder-in-ukraine-n530569

Russian casualties are spiking for sure, but some of their 'stupid tactics' are simply forcing prisoners to advance at all costs.
PapaKilo
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Sounds like Russia is just balancing their budget.
Bag
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any general consensus on who is winning this war, one year later?
AgBank
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rgag12
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Bag said:

any general consensus on who is winning this war, one year later?


Depends on which side you align with. Both countries have clear advantages and disadvantages.

I think the only thing most people can come to a consensus to is that this thing is in a stalemate and will take years unless one side breaks through in the coming months (which is unlikely).
MouthBQ98
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I wouldn't say it is unlikely at all. Russia is plodding methodically towards exhausting itself for minimal gains while Ukraine is building a more westernized army with advanced training. It won't be a fully western army with air superiority and full combined arms, but it will be much more mobile and dynamic than what Russia is doing. There is a chance at bigger tactical successes long term against a predictable Russia.
AgLA06
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MouthBQ98 said:

I wouldn't say it is unlikely at all. Russia is plodding methodically towards exhausting itself for minimal gains while Ukraine is building a more westernized army with advanced training. It won't be a fully western army with air superiority and full combined arms, but it will be much more mobile and dynamic than what Russia is doing. There is a chance at bigger tactical successes long term against a predictable Russia.
Yep.

The goal for Russia on invasion day was to be having a parade in 3 days in downtown Kiev. 350 something days later, not only did Ukraine stop them cold, they've pushed them back greatly including taking major cities Russia annexed and have held the line while they build an army that can eventually push them out. If Russia can't take Ukraine now, every day that goes by is one day closer to the next Uke offensive.

Russia launched their offensive last week. They drafted 300k soldiers, let loose a military company that essentially kidnapped 20k prisoners to use as human shields, and has even thrown supposed elite weapons onto the battlefield they never wanted to use. All to take a couple miles around a town insignifiant to the Uke army. They don't have a single "elite" unit that hasn't been decimated. And they've shown they can't properly train, equip or solve their morale problems. I can't see how anyone thinks something positive is going to happen for Russia the longer this goes.
Not a Bot
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rgag12
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MouthBQ98 said:

I wouldn't say it is unlikely at all. Russia is plodding methodically towards exhausting itself for minimal gains while Ukraine is building a more westernized army with advanced training. It won't be a fully western army with air superiority and full combined arms, but it will be much more mobile and dynamic than what Russia is doing. There is a chance at bigger tactical successes long term against a predictable Russia.


I didn't say Ukraine winning the war in the way you described is unlikely.

What is highly unlikely is that Ukraine receives the equipment, trains, gets the equipment deployed, and uses it to affect a breakthrough in the coming months.

I know everyone wants a quick Ukrainian victory, but chances are very slim this thing is going to be over quickly if you look at this with a level head, and don't discount the other sides defenses.
Not a Bot
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MouthBQ98
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I agree there. 2023 will be a grind in the east, maybe something interesting in the south, but I think 2024 before there is a major change or maybe a decision to negotiate.
AgLA06
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Not a Bot said:


I mean. Russia has taken over his country and all their military equipment, ammo, and bases. Other than a coup to force his small, poorly trained army to attack from the north (I bet they don't make it 20 miles) there isn't much more he can cooperate.
chickencoupe16
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AgLA06 said:

Not a Bot said:


I mean. Russia has taken over his country and all their military equipment, ammo, and bases. Other than a coupe to force his small, poorly trained army to attack from the north (I bet they don't make it 20 miles) there isn't much more he can cooperate.


A sedan might be better.
agent-maroon
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Lukashenko is about to receive an offer he can't refuse. Only surprise to me is that it took nearly a year before Putin got serious about it
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AgLA06
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rgag12 said:

MouthBQ98 said:

I wouldn't say it is unlikely at all. Russia is plodding methodically towards exhausting itself for minimal gains while Ukraine is building a more westernized army with advanced training. It won't be a fully western army with air superiority and full combined arms, but it will be much more mobile and dynamic than what Russia is doing. There is a chance at bigger tactical successes long term against a predictable Russia.
What is highly unlikely is that Ukraine receives the equipment, trains, gets the equipment deployed, and uses it to affect a breakthrough in the coming months.

They literally just launched 2 successful offensives just mere months ago. Kharkiv took 500 settlements and 12,000 square kilometers of territory against Russia's best units. Kherson took 1,170 square kilometers of land and a city so protected by a river and Russian defenses, Putin went on TV and annexed it.
AgLA06
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chickencoupe16 said:

AgLA06 said:

Not a Bot said:


I mean. Russia has taken over his country and all their military equipment, ammo, and bases. Other than a coupe to force his small, poorly trained army to attack from the north (I bet they don't make it 20 miles) there isn't much more he can cooperate.


A sedan might be better.
Forgive me.

Leave the gun, take the cannoli
rgag12
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AgLA06 said:

rgag12 said:

MouthBQ98 said:

I wouldn't say it is unlikely at all. Russia is plodding methodically towards exhausting itself for minimal gains while Ukraine is building a more westernized army with advanced training. It won't be a fully western army with air superiority and full combined arms, but it will be much more mobile and dynamic than what Russia is doing. There is a chance at bigger tactical successes long term against a predictable Russia.
What is highly unlikely is that Ukraine receives the equipment, trains, gets the equipment deployed, and uses it to affect a breakthrough in the coming months.

They literally just launched 2 successful offensives just mere months ago. Kharkiv took 500 settlements and 12,000 square kilometers of territory against Russia's best units. Kherson took 1,170 square kilometers of land and a city so protected by a river and Russian defenses, Putin went on TV and annexed it.


That is a very glass half full way of looking at Ukraine's offensives (especially Kherson), to put it mildly.

You are setting yourself up for disappointment.
docb
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

A good article to answer the question of who it winning the conflict.
AgLA06
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rgag12 said:

AgLA06 said:

rgag12 said:

MouthBQ98 said:

I wouldn't say it is unlikely at all. Russia is plodding methodically towards exhausting itself for minimal gains while Ukraine is building a more westernized army with advanced training. It won't be a fully western army with air superiority and full combined arms, but it will be much more mobile and dynamic than what Russia is doing. There is a chance at bigger tactical successes long term against a predictable Russia.
What is highly unlikely is that Ukraine receives the equipment, trains, gets the equipment deployed, and uses it to affect a breakthrough in the coming months.

They literally just launched 2 successful offensives just mere months ago. Kharkiv took 500 settlements and 12,000 square kilometers of territory against Russia's best units. Kherson took 1,170 square kilometers of land and a city so protected by a river and Russian defenses, Putin went on TV and annexed it.


That is a very glass half full way of looking at Ukraine's offensives (especially Kherson), to put it mildly.

You are setting yourself up for disappointment.
Then you'll have to explain why they can't do something they've already done.

Twice.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Quote:

US Secretary of Defense: We expect Ukraine to launch a counterattack in the spring


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/14-february-us-secretary-of-defense-we-expect-ukraine-to
nortex97
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Petraeus is such a blow hard.

If there is anyone in the US military establishment/former uniformed officers whose judgment, and wartime sense of who is winning/how to win, would be less credible after Afghanistan and Iraq, I would be hard pressed to name them. Probably not a small coincidence he's employed by CNN.

No one is winning in Ukraine. It's basically a stalemate of rich oligarchs on two sides happy to attrit the cannon fodder troops they have. Claiming a few miles this way or hamlets that way really matter in the big scheme of things is…a joke.
AgLA06
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nortex97 said:

Petraeus is such a blow hard.

If there is anyone in the US military establishment/former uniformed officers whose judgment, and wartime sense of who is winning/how to win, would be less credible after Afghanistan and Iraq, I would be hard pressed to name them. Probably not a small coincidence he's employed by CNN.

No one is winning in Ukraine. It's basically a stalemate of rich oligarchs on two sides happy to attrit the cannon fodder troops they have. Claiming a few miles this way or hamlets that way really matter in the big scheme of things is…a joke.
Your opinion of him doesn't change the reality of this.

"Russia has, after all, lost the Battles of Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv; failed to take the rest of Ukraine's southern coast (not even getting through Mykolaiv, much less to the major port at Odesa).

It has lost what it had gained in Kharkiv province. And it has had to withdraw its only forces west of the Dnipro River in Kherson province because the Ukrainians made the vital bridge connections to those forces impassable, took out the headquarters and logistics sites supporting those forces, and isolated them from the rest of the Russian elements east of the river."
nortex97
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AgLA06 said:

nortex97 said:

Petraeus is such a blow hard.

If there is anyone in the US military establishment/former uniformed officers whose judgment, and wartime sense of who is winning/how to win, would be less credible after Afghanistan and Iraq, I would be hard pressed to name them. Probably not a small coincidence he's employed by CNN.

No one is winning in Ukraine. It's basically a stalemate of rich oligarchs on two sides happy to attrit the cannon fodder troops they have. Claiming a few miles this way or hamlets that way really matter in the big scheme of things is…a joke.
Your opinion of him doesn't change the reality of this.

"Russia has, after all, lost the Battles of Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv; failed to take the rest of Ukraine's southern coast (not even getting through Mykolaiv, much less to the major port at Odesa).

It has lost what it had gained in Kharkiv province. And it has had to withdraw its only forces west of the Dnipro River in Kherson province because the Ukrainians made the vital bridge connections to those forces impassable, took out the headquarters and logistics sites supporting those forces, and isolated them from the rest of the Russian elements east of the river."
None of that is false, nor does it disprove my analysis/assertion that it is essentially a stalemate today. And has been. Of those 4 cities, outside of Kiev, probably only 10 posters on this forum could find the other 3 on a map.

AgLA06
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Kharkiv was literally Ukraine's second largest city.

I imagine people would find it significant if the USA took back Los Angeles after being invaded in Red Dawn.
LMCane
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If only we could have a war where there is NOT a "human meat grinder"

maybe we should analyze World War 1. Or the four years of the US Civil War. Or the Napoleanic wars. Or the 30 Years War?

the ENTIRE POINT of what Ukraine is trying to accomplish is turn the east into a meat grinder of dead Russians.

When you are a smaller and weaker country- the strategic advantage is TO CREATE A STALEMATE where you bleed the larger power, and then either counter-attack or wait until the attacker is exhausted and sues for peace.

See e.g. George Washington and every insurgency in the history of the world
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