AgLA06 said:

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Not a Bot said:

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Surveillance footage possible showing the Zatoka bridge near Odesa being hit by what looks like a naval suicide drone. #Ukraine #Odesa pic.twitter.com/E7IlTuyzSW

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) February 10, 2023

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Looks just like the bridge hit that was supposedly an 18 wheeler.

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Still?

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3327982/replies/63226330#63226330

Faustus said:

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nortex97 said:

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Excellent piece in foreign policy magazine. Fair use graf:

Quote:

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. . .
"Russia's economic growth suggests Western sanctions are having a limited impact."
. . .

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I don't get this take.

Sanctions, regardless of whether they're currently crippling Russia's economy, froze over 300 billion in Russian reserves in Western banks that Putin moronically left in our grasp while invading. Maybe he thought we didn't do anything while he took Crimea in short order, so we wouldn't do anything if he managed to decapitate Kyiv in the same time frame.

That didn't play out, and Russia lost about around 20% of year's GDP in one fell swoop. Averaged out over one year that still comes to around 20%. In what world is that limited impact?

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The piece explains the sub-headline on its own terms. 20 percent may be true, I dunno, but I haven't seen that in analyses of their GDP in 2022, let alone growth forecast for this year.

Seized assets stashed in banks/financial institutions were, by definition, also probably not contributing much to GDP. Similar seizures also didn't impact Venezuela, or Iranian policies, fwiw. I have no idea what Putin thought or if those were in fact all under his control.



I remain unaware of what tangible (measurable) metrics/timeframe the sanctions are to be measured by. Frankly, I have no projection at all as to what is most likely to happen in the next few months/this summer.

Latest ISW update:

Eastern #Ukraine: Luhansk-Kharkiv oblast 🧵

Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of #Svatove and around #Kreminna on February 10. https://t.co/3K14p7jlZc pic.twitter.com/TUv2ztbw7l

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 11, 2023

Full update: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-10-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine.
• Russian missile overflights of NATO territory are highly unlikely to prompt an escalation, and ISW continues to assess with high confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to risk a direct conflict with NATO.
• Recent footage of a failed Russian assault near Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast has become the next point of neuralgia in the Russian information space and demonstrated the systemic poor training of Russian mobilized personnel.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and around Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas as well as in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian forces reportedly conducted a limited ground attack in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian authorities are likely placing restrictions on movement in and out of Russia to support crypto-mobilization efforts.
• Russian officials and occupation authorities are intensifying measures to integrate children in occupied territories using government-funded civic organizations.

UPDATES

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Russian officials and occupation authorities are intensifying measures to integrate children in occupied territories using government-funded civic organizations

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Putin Youth

Di they get a complimentary knife?

Or just a sack of potatoes?

Today's SITREP.

Bad news! It appears Starlink service for Ukraine is no longer free, or even supported for the military (we have some ready to go to the front) @elonmusk promised to fund Starlink in Ukraine indefinitely. This will be a major win for 🇷🇺 @StationCDRKelly @AdamKinzinger pic.twitter.com/EavLmIhSaP

— Issac | Исcак (@Marine_Ukraine) February 11, 2023

This is going to be a problem

https://m.timesofindia.com/world/us/india-and-us/us-will-welcome-any-efforts-by-pm-modi-to-stop-russia-ukraine-war-white-house/amp_articleshow/97820636.cms

I doubt India would want the war to stop as long as they are buying Russian oil at a huge discount. India is about as worthless as China.

docb said:

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https://m.timesofindia.com/world/us/india-and-us/us-will-welcome-any-efforts-by-pm-modi-to-stop-russia-ukraine-war-white-house/amp_articleshow/97820636.cms

I doubt India would want the war to stop as long as they are buying Russian oil at a huge discount. India is about as worthless as China.

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Air India (Tata) just signed huge deals with Boeing/GE/Airbus etc. for airliners, and India is a huge and growing trading block by itself.

Boeing/Lockheed and much of our defense establishment is competing for orders for a lot of business there moving forward, vs. the Europeans in general.

There are real reasons we won't impose trade penalties on companies that are 'circumventing' sanctions to Russia by taking the oil/gas to India.

Agthatbuilds said:

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Bad news! It appears Starlink service for Ukraine is no longer free, or even supported for the military (we have some ready to go to the front) @elonmusk promised to fund Starlink in Ukraine indefinitely. This will be a major win for 🇷🇺 @StationCDRKelly @AdamKinzinger pic.twitter.com/EavLmIhSaP

— Issac | Исcак (@Marine_Ukraine) February 11, 2023

This is going to be a problem

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China and Russia must have Musk's gonads in the vice…

Is the discontinuation of Starlink due to funding or is it going to be unavailable at any price? If it's just money then I would think that someone (likely us) would just step up and pay the bill.

I've read some articles about how starling didn't want it used offensively and the ukes are using it in ways starlink didn't want.

This isn't the first time they've said pay up either. Last time, iirc, political pressure made starlink back down.

Here are the 11 February 2023 control-of-terrain maps for #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine from @TheStudyofWar & @criticalthreats.

See the latest changes on our interactive map: https://t.co/8RN8PxU2LC pic.twitter.com/NeyQqv2L5d

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 11, 2023

Russian military column enters a Ukrainian mine field and makes every mistake possible.

Did they receive any training at all after mobilization?pic.twitter.com/MRPhHyy0EI

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) February 12, 2023

UPDATES

I'm reminded of the Brusilov Offensive, which might nominally be considered a 'success' but was exorbitantly expensive in human terms for all. Some of these belligerent's attitudes are quite ancient.

More good x-o's.
Plus commentary on dithering Europeans at end

US assistance to Ukraine to date: AID

"Since January 2021, the United States has invested more than $30 billion in security assistance to demonstrate our enduring and steadfast commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.This includes $29.3 billion since Russia's launched its premeditated, unprovoked, and brutal war against Ukraine on February 24. Since 2014, the United States has provided more than $32 billion in security assistance for training and equipment to help Ukraine preserve its territorial integrity, secure its borders, and improve interoperability with NATO."

Note that the delta between the roughly $113B Congress has appropriated since the war started and the $29.3B directly expended for Ukraine to date is due to $45B of the $113B only recently being approved in December and because a significant amount of the total appropriation is being spent to replenish donated US stockpiles and to fund long-term production contracts.

Here's what strikes me as a thoughtful perspective on the current battlefield situation and the recent handwringing about a "massive" Russian offensive.

REALITY CHECK

Looks like we got a drone war on our hands especially today.

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Air defense is active near Dnipro city amid new drone attack

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/12-february-air-defense-is-active-near-dnipro-city-amid-new

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Russian army launched reconnaissance drone at Dnipropetrovsk region and several balloons with reflectors, - Ukrainian Air Command

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/12-february-russian-army-launched-reconnaissance-drone-at

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Reports of active air defense and explosions near Mariupol

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/12-february-reports-of-active-air-defense-and-explosions

Pay wall.

AgLA06 said:

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Pay wall.

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Um.....it opens for me and I'm not a subscriber. Not sure what to do about it.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-15

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PMC Wagner mercenaries have captured Krasna Hora village in Donetsk region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/12-february-pmc-wagner-mercenaries-have-captured-krasna-hora

This makes sense, as Def Mon reported that Ukraine had left the village very recently.

That second link let me read. Thanks.

"The idea that the Ukrainians might be steamrollered by a massive, well-planned Russian offensive again seems unlikely..."

A ship carrying US military aid for Ukraine arrived in the German port of Bremerhaven. M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA, AN / TWQ-1 Avenger air defense systems and M88A2 Hercules ARVs and other military equipment are being unloaded from the ship. pic.twitter.com/wBkccn5GAU

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 12, 2023

Seems they could use an entire ship of the AN / TWQ-1 Avenger air defense systems.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 12 February 2023

Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/is1JQ7T8pE

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/4Fz8VPKU7g

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) February 12, 2023

74OA said:

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Here's what strikes me as a thoughtful perspective on the current battlefield situation and the recent handwringing about a "massive" Russian offensive.

REALITY CHECK

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Really good article, pretty much all the way through (except for a few typos). It definitely brings one back down to Earth when thinking about Russia's tactics and their offensive.

Waffledynamics said:

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74OA said:

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Here's what strikes me as a thoughtful perspective on the current battlefield situation and the recent handwringing about a "massive" Russian offensive.

REALITY CHECK

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Really good article, pretty much all the way through (except for a few typos). It definitely brings one back down to Earth when thinking about Russia's tactics and their offensive.

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no kidding, Ukraine should be begging for the Russians to bring 1800 tanks to the front. Quick and efficient destruction of all that armor.