More on Leo's for Ukraine. Leo II is preferable as it has better armor and a bigger main gun. Even if the older Leo I is given updated sensors and sights it is basically a peer to upgraded T-72s. Problem for both is so many have sat for so long without being maintained.

Leo I
Leo II

so strange to see a TOR just sitting out in a wide open field

no camouflage

not dug in

not near trees (even in the winter time)

just inviting in the Ukes to smash it with standoff munitions

LMCane said:

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so strange to see a TOR just sitting out in a wide open field

no camouflage

not dug in

not near trees (even in the winter time)

just inviting in the Ukes to smash it with standoff munitions

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I guess.

Then again no matter how hard a couple of you try to convince yourselves this is the boogie man the DOD made Russia out to be during the cold war doesn't change the that Russia has proven themselves a joke militarily in the last year.

It obviously wasn't fake. The radar was actively working.

Lots of concern about a potential stalemate in Ukraine.

FROZEN CONFLICT?

74OA said:

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Lots of concern about a potential stalemate in Ukraine.

FROZEN CONFLICT?

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Thanks for sharing. So many jewels in this article but this quote by Hodges says it all.

Quote:

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How long would it take? "Ukraine has the capability to liberate Crimea by the end of this summer if the US decides we want them to win and we provide the capabilities now," Hodges said. "Unfortunately I don't see the evidence the administration actually wants them to win, [because] it's using a process that will get stuff there by the end of this year."

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benchmark said:

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74OA said:

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Lots of concern about a potential stalemate in Ukraine.

FROZEN CONFLICT?

---

Thanks for sharing. So many jewels in this article but this quote by Hodges says it all.

Quote:

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How long would it take? "Ukraine has the capability to liberate Crimea by the end of this summer if the US decides we want them to win and we provide the capabilities now," Hodges said. "Unfortunately I don't see the evidence the administration actually wants them to win, [because] it's using a process that will get stuff there by the end of this year."

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Was just about to highlight that myself. Thanks to 740 for linking that article.

I do think we have been very mixed on releasing our goodies.We were very, very fast on our dumb small arms but the rest has been slow to very slow. I understand there are political ramifications for a lot of it, but the net effect is that we are still dribbling in tech as the months continue. Truly feels like we are just matching Russia's resolve tit for tat. Again, the boxing analogy. "If Putin reaches the fifth round, THEN we will release tanks. Oh, he made it to the sixth round? Fighter jets then!" and so on and so forth.

Most of the NATO nations are the same or even worse.

Will reiterate that there is a tightrope of political nuance and "pushing Putin too far". It is definitely a consideration and I can recognize that. Along with some of the usual military industrial complex talk wanting a drawn out conflict. There is merit in that as well sadly. Anyone who went through OIF and OEF can attest to it. Still frustrating and I do think we have been too conservative with our release of advanced weaponry that was going to see the battlefield anyways and allowed Russia time to dig in which will mean more blood and denials of the Ukes on the battlefield.

Better late than never though I guess.

It makes me wonder if they know what's really going on with Putins health. Maybe they're just drawing this out until he becomes incapacitated? I'm sure there is a lot of info we have that is not and will not be shared for quite some time. Who knows? I just find it interesting that we slowly increase the capacity for the Ukranians. It seems now the longer range rockets are being pushed back a while too. I was really thinking that these in enough numbers along with the armor even without the jets might allow them to make at least another big push and split the Russians in half.

Today's SITREP.

As long as Putin is in charge the war can't be won because NO chance he withdraws and signs a ceasefire
Probably better to draw it out than back him into a corner

benchmark said:

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74OA said:

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Lots of concern about a potential stalemate in Ukraine.

FROZEN CONFLICT?

---

Thanks for sharing. So many jewels in this article but this quote by Hodges says it all.

Quote:

---

How long would it take? "Ukraine has the capability to liberate Crimea by the end of this summer if the US decides we want them to win and we provide the capabilities now," Hodges said. "Unfortunately I don't see the evidence the administration actually wants them to win, [because] it's using a process that will get stuff there by the end of this year."

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Saying this again…the goal of this administration isn't for Ukraine to "win". Its to kill as many Russians as possible.

Can't wait to see the videos coming in of the new long range rockets. I think it's going to be the game changer in this war.

New ISW thread:

NEW: The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to #Ukraine, including precision long-range missiles for HIMARS, while Russian President Putin continued his campaign against certain domestic opposition voices.

Our latest: https://t.co/1euhwllnXK pic.twitter.com/B523qPIDB7

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 4, 2023

Full report: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-3-2023

New Defmon3 update, including excellent mapping:

Ukraine update🧵 February 3rd
(2nd attempt because twitter is broken)

This update is brought to you by a LDNR soldier in his best uniform and his child bride.

It would be helpful if you like and retweet this tweet. pic.twitter.com/g5ao1fIEO4

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 3, 2023

Shelling locations reported by UA general staff today. The terrorist state Russia continues to shell civilian and military targets along the front line and along the border areas. pic.twitter.com/suD3cPGot5

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 3, 2023

Waffledynamics said:

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New ISW thread:

NEW: The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to #Ukraine, including precision long-range missiles for HIMARS, while Russian President Putin continued his campaign against certain domestic opposition voices.

Our latest: https://t.co/1euhwllnXK pic.twitter.com/B523qPIDB7

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 4, 2023

Full report: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-3-2023

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well, this (long range HIMARS) is a rung (or two) up the escalation ladder

🔥🔥Video from Borisovka in Belgorod, Russia, now. The fire is still not extinguished or even reduced. 😁 pic.twitter.com/X8ouU6tHdm

— Malinda 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇵🇱🇨🇦🇮🇹🇦🇺🇬🇧🇯🇵🇩🇪🇸🇪 (@TreasChest) February 4, 2023

Quote:

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Saying this again…the goal of this administration isn't for Ukraine to "win". Its to kill as many Russians as possible.

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Perhaps you could broaden this to include topple any current russian threat.
This administration may not be alone. There are many within our military brass that believe history points to realpolitik.

He shows that "L/DPR" army is not supplied by the Russians, many don't know how to shoot, and practically the majority has now perished with some units being replaced a fourth time. pic.twitter.com/CvAWSdlpWV

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 3, 2023

Murz believes holding Bakhmut and grinding down both Wagner and "L/DPR" mobiks basically buys time for Ukrainians who will eventually counterattack causing the same shock as the Kherson/Kharkiv offensives.
Source: https://t.co/QzlPXWvhqR pic.twitter.com/zK7sOJy5PG

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 3, 2023

Behind the lines, they also serve at great risk.

POWER RESTORATION

At this point, any more of "Germany waiting" just grinds my teeth.

UPDATE

2/4 Finally I got some time to share a few images, which can shed some light on what's going on near Vuhledar. As I previously indicated in my reports, the heaviest combats happened in the areas of southern and eastern dachi. pic.twitter.com/2vcwfBCeao

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 4, 2023

4/4 You can also see how the enemy attempted to outflank Vuhledar from the East, but sustained losses and had to retreat to Mykil's'ke.

Overall the situation remains dangerous due to increasing numbers of enemy infantry and artillery. pic.twitter.com/ObF0QWUBIK

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 4, 2023

Factory responsible for building Kerch bridge components caught on fire. I'd seen that a facility like this was on fire, but I didn't know it was THAT kind of bridge component manufacturer. That system at 4:24 seems interesting, too.

Battle tanks are on their way to help Ukraine.

The first Canadian Leopard 2 is en route.

Canada's support for Ukraine is unwavering. pic.twitter.com/gnkOC50yKk

— Anita Anand (@AnitaAnandMP) February 4, 2023

New ISW Update:

Full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-4-2023

Eastern Ukraine Update:

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut area on February 4. 1/https://t.co/OpuzAo4nXk pic.twitter.com/Oj5qDBkMPq

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 5, 2023

Waffledynamics said:

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New ISW Update:

Full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-4-2023

Eastern Ukraine Update:

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut area on February 4. 1/https://t.co/OpuzAo4nXk pic.twitter.com/Oj5qDBkMPq

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 5, 2023

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I have feeling that Ukraine is going to unleash a combined arms total hell once those Russian forces move forward and get stretched a little thin and undersupplied.

Today's SITREP.

UPDATES

Sounds like russia plans on razing Kramatorsk

https://apple.news/ADRyuRp4ATYGc48UZdX_1PQ

Zelensky may be changing his defense minister.

"Given his position and close relation with Zelensky, Budanov has been a frequent target of assassination attempts. In 2019, a bomb was placed under his car but detonated prematurely and there have been at least 10 assassination attempts, a source close to Budanov recently told the Washington Post."

BUDANOV

They are definitely grouping up for an attack. Without giving a number, what they have gathered so far is larger than initial force which they used at first, when 155th and 40th tried to rush into Vuhledar. They keep adding up more forces every day, non-stop.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 5, 2023

Take this next one with a grain of salt:

Russians claim to have opened a new front towards Kupyansk from the north east. They claim to have captured a first Ukrainian position in Synkivka.. pic.twitter.com/S94qFadghc

— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) February 5, 2023

2/4 Kyrylivka is located approximately 14 kilometers southeast of Vuhledar. The central part of the town - educational and administrative buildings was turned into an assembly area where enemy forces gathered before dispatching to the frontline. pic.twitter.com/vp6vsBGbPR

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 5, 2023

4/4 The estimate varies between 30 and 200 killed.

While russians pretend that nothing happened and even didn't bother to mention it, make sure to retweet this, so we can help them to find out what happened.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 5, 2023

📽️Ukrainian soldier fires a RPG towards Russian positions in the north-eastern outskirts of #Bakhmut.#UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/DCr1jkVN05

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) February 5, 2023

Classic OSINT target of the K-S railway station in Rostov.

BMP-2 and T-55 tanks https://t.co/b6AonsGEKU

— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) February 5, 2023

T-55's?

If true, a weird little historical coincidence. The Slovenian T-55's given to Ukraine are upgraded with a derivative of the 105mm gun the Brits developed in response to the development of the T-54/55 back in the 50's. Potentially an ex Slovenian Israeli modified T-55 in Ukrainian service could engage a Russian T-55 with the 105mm gun originally developed by the British to kill Soviet T-55's.

Interesting episode, especially at the mapping starting at 18:39 and continuing through the rest of the video. Looks like Russia is continuing their suicidal push towards Bakhmut in an attempt to overwhelm it. It may be time soon for Ukraine to start retreating from there while they still can control the pace of it.

I can't imagine the amount of blood Russia's lost trying to take this area. Unreal. I bet it dwarfs their losses trying to take Severodonetsk.

Given the location of the bore evaluators I think those are T-62. They are difficult to distinguish at a glance.

I can't make out the road wheels which is the only way my untrained eye could distinguish in a video like that. Lots of comments saying T-62's so you're probably right