***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Waffledynamics
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11:50a, 2/2/23
AG
Found a really interesting thread about Wagner's tactics. It's long but a good read.

Unrolled thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1621095382771175426.html

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74OA
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 11:58a, 2/2/23
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Found a really interesting thread about Wagner's tactics. It's long but a good read.

Unrolled thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1621095382771175426.html

Can't keep it up much longer: "The recruitment of convicts at first gave a full-flowing river of people, now they are gone."
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sclaff
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11:59a, 2/2/23
AG
And here is one on Wagner recruiting drying up. Word has gotten out
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1618541590599065602.html
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AgLA06
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In reply to 74OA • 12:33p, 2/2/23
AG
74OA said:
Waffledynamics said:
Found a really interesting thread about Wagner's tactics. It's long but a good read.

Unrolled thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1621095382771175426.html

Can't keep it up much longer: "The recruitment of convicts at first gave a full-flowing river of people, now they are gone."
Yah, if they're admitting themselves they're running out of meat and munitions, it must be bad.
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74OA
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3:02p, 2/2/23
AG
Peace loving Russia threatened by Nazi tanks again.

UPDATE
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LMCane
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In reply to 74OA • 3:05p, 2/2/23
74OA said:
Waffledynamics said:
Found a really interesting thread about Wagner's tactics. It's long but a good read.

Unrolled thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1621095382771175426.html

Can't keep it up much longer: "The recruitment of convicts at first gave a full-flowing river of people, now they are gone."
also I have seen some reports that the survivors had a six month contract and some of those are coming up due.

although I find it hard to believe that the Russkies are just going to let their convict cannon fodder mosey back to Voronezh and end up murdering someone..
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LMCane
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In reply to AgLA06 • 3:14p, 2/2/23
AgLA06 said:
74OA said:
Waffledynamics said:
Found a really interesting thread about Wagner's tactics. It's long but a good read.

Unrolled thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1621095382771175426.html

Can't keep it up much longer: "The recruitment of convicts at first gave a full-flowing river of people, now they are gone."
Yah, if they're admitting themselves they're running out of meat and munitions, it must be bad.
here is my question- what happens when these "contracts" from the last mobilization run out?

Putin just going to let tens of thousands of troops leave the battlezone?

and if they can't supply logistically the forces they have now- how are they going to mobilize ANOTHER half million additional troops?!

and why is Ukraine so afraid of a "massive attack" by the Russians when we have haven't seen massive numbers of troops being mobilized in the last few months.
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74OA
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3:15p, 2/2/23
AG
No F-16 upgrades for Erdogan if he continues to block Sweden from NATO.

GOOD
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to LMCane • 8:04p, 2/2/23
AG
LMCane said:
AgLA06 said:
74OA said:
Waffledynamics said:
Found a really interesting thread about Wagner's tactics. It's long but a good read.

Unrolled thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1621095382771175426.html

Can't keep it up much longer: "The recruitment of convicts at first gave a full-flowing river of people, now they are gone."
Yah, if they're admitting themselves they're running out of meat and munitions, it must be bad.
here is my question- what happens when these "contracts" from the last mobilization run out?

Putin just going to let tens of thousands of troops leave the battlezone?

and if they can't supply logistically the forces they have now- how are they going to mobilize ANOTHER half million additional troops?!

and why is Ukraine so afraid of a "massive attack" by the Russians when we have haven't seen massive numbers of troops being mobilized in the last few months.
They've definitely been mobilizing a lot. They've also been trying to train them. It's pretty well established as far as I know that Belarus has been providing training grounds, and Russia's trying to make sure the next phase of the invasion is a positive one for them.

Russia is still very dangerous and has been learning. This year will be interesting, especially starting in the spring.
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B-1 83
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In reply to LMCane • 8:10p, 2/2/23
AG
LMCane said:
74OA said:
Waffledynamics said:
Found a really interesting thread about Wagner's tactics. It's long but a good read.

Unrolled thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1621095382771175426.html

Can't keep it up much longer: "The recruitment of convicts at first gave a full-flowing river of people, now they are gone."
also I have seen some reports that the survivors had a six month contract and some of those are coming up due.

although I find it hard to believe that the Russkies are just going to let their convict cannon fodder mosey back to Voronezh and end up murdering someone..
Huge bonus to re-inlist, payable at the end of their time.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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Waffledynamics
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9:13p, 2/2/23
AG
New ISW thread:



Full assessment here: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-2-2023
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Waffledynamics
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9:47p, 2/2/23
AG
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fullback44
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In reply to 74OA • 10:19p, 2/2/23
AG
74OA said:
First timeline I've seen, but likely overly optimistic: "GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan."

MORE RANGE


I read a big article on these GLSDB ground launch small diameter bonds .. they are actually pretty big missiles when completed. The missile is about 13.5 ft long and 10-11 inches round . So a 13 foot missile .of which the bomb is around 7 foot I believe. (250 lb war head also)

We have thousands of these SMBombs and the missile motor is also readily available. They will go 95 miles or farther .. this will be a game changer for Ukraine
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to fullback44 • 10:59p, 2/2/23
AG
fullback44 said:
74OA said:
First timeline I've seen, but likely overly optimistic: "GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan."

MORE RANGE


I read a big article on these GLSDB ground launch small diameter bonds .. they are actually pretty big missiles when completed. The missile is about 13.5 ft long and 10-11 inches round . So a 13 foot missile .of which the bomb is around 7 foot I believe. (250 lb war head also)

We have thousands of these SMBombs and the missile motor is also readily available. They will go 95 miles or farther .. this will be a game changer for Ukraine
From a layman: what would they target with GLSDBs?
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fullback44
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 12:01a, 2/3/23
AG
Well considering the HIMARS they have now only have a range of about 45 miles or so, the Russians moved all the amo dumps out of range (45 plus miles) from the HIMARS.. Russia. Is fixing to have another huge round of ammunition depots blowing up all over the place .. they will have to move ammo 95 miles from the front lines very soon.. this is disaster for Russia becoase they may only be occupying land slightly more than 95-100 miles to the coast .. Russia will be running out of places to hide its ammo .. and certainly a long long ways from the front.

Also Crimea is full of ammunition depots .. that place will go up like a Roman candle if it's within reach of these new missiles

Get ready for lots of fireworks again soon.. once the ammo is blown up the lines will once again have to retreat due to low on ammo just like before .. perfect time for a Ukraine offensive when Rusky is low on bullets again.. i suspect lots of death or surrender. There's a reason we are giving them Bradley's and Strykers .. to take out troups as they retreat .. they will need the tanks to deal with Russian tanks and artillery.. none of this will be easy and it will be very bloody once things get in motion

Of course they can use the new missiles for long range surgical strikes as well.. command centers, air defense systems, fuel depots, etc etc etc
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74OA
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 3:45a, 2/3/23
AG
Waffledynamics said:
fullback44 said:
74OA said:
First timeline I've seen, but likely overly optimistic: "GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan."

MORE RANGE


I read a big article on these GLSDB ground launch small diameter bonds .. they are actually pretty big missiles when completed. The missile is about 13.5 ft long and 10-11 inches round . So a 13 foot missile .of which the bomb is around 7 foot I believe. (250 lb war head also)

We have thousands of these SMBombs and the missile motor is also readily available. They will go 95 miles or farther .. this will be a game changer for Ukraine
From a layman: what would they target with GLSDBs?
Any location with known GPS coordinates. In other words, the same target set the Ukrainians have so successfully attacked with HIMARS, but at greater ranges. Command posts, logistics nodes, transportation hubs, key infrastructure, etc.
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B-1 83
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In reply to 74OA • 6:07a, 2/3/23
AG
I would love to see a surprise salvo of a hundred or so before the orcs even know they are operational.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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GAC06
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In reply to 74OA • 7:30a, 2/3/23
AG
74OA said:
Waffledynamics said:
fullback44 said:
74OA said:
First timeline I've seen, but likely overly optimistic: "GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan."

MORE RANGE


I read a big article on these GLSDB ground launch small diameter bonds .. they are actually pretty big missiles when completed. The missile is about 13.5 ft long and 10-11 inches round . So a 13 foot missile .of which the bomb is around 7 foot I believe. (250 lb war head also)

We have thousands of these SMBombs and the missile motor is also readily available. They will go 95 miles or farther .. this will be a game changer for Ukraine
From a layman: what would they target with GLSDBs?
Any location with known GPS coordinates. In other words, the same target set the Ukrainians have so successfully attacked with HIMARS, but at greater ranges. Command posts, logistics nodes, transportation hubs, key infrastructure, etc.


We also make SDB's with a tri-mode millimeter wave radar/infrared/laser seeker that can hit moving targets. Just the inertial guided ones will be a big step though
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74OA
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7:36a, 2/3/23
AG
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74OA
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In reply to GAC06 • 7:40a, 2/3/23
AG
GAC06 said:
74OA said:
Waffledynamics said:
fullback44 said:
74OA said:
First timeline I've seen, but likely overly optimistic: "GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan."

MORE RANGE


I read a big article on these GLSDB ground launch small diameter bonds .. they are actually pretty big missiles when completed. The missile is about 13.5 ft long and 10-11 inches round . So a 13 foot missile .of which the bomb is around 7 foot I believe. (250 lb war head also)

We have thousands of these SMBombs and the missile motor is also readily available. They will go 95 miles or farther .. this will be a game changer for Ukraine
From a layman: what would they target with GLSDBs?
Any location with known GPS coordinates. In other words, the same target set the Ukrainians have so successfully attacked with HIMARS, but at greater ranges. Command posts, logistics nodes, transportation hubs, key infrastructure, etc.


We also make SDB's with a tri-mode millimeter wave radar/infrared/laser seeker that can hit moving targets. Just the inertial guided ones will be a big step though
Yes, SDBII, but SAAB has never mentioned integrating it with GLSDB that I've read.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to B-1 83 • 8:27a, 2/3/23
AG
B-1 83 said:
I would love to see a surprise salvo of a hundred or so before the orcs even know they are operational.
This.

I did not understand why mere days after the last big aid package they announce a new one which is expected to include GLSDBs. Why wouldn't that have already been included and not specified.

There are several articles on reddit stating big rusky attack with 500K on Feb. 24th the invasion anniversary. Maybe we already new this and hopefully a lot of this aid package will already be operational in theatre.

That cargo vessel with the 60 Bradleys is marked as 2 days out from Southhampton England. Not sure why they would go there and not Belgium. Maybe a fuel stop or maybe these are to backfill US Bradleys on NATO bases and the ones on NATO bases already shipped to Ukraine.
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74OA
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 8:55a, 2/3/23
AG
JFABNRGR said:
B-1 83 said:
I would love to see a surprise salvo of a hundred or so before the orcs even know they are operational.
This.

I did not understand why mere days after the last big aid package they announce a new one which is expected to include GLSDBs. Why wouldn't that have already been included and not specified.

There are several articles on reddit stating big rusky attack with 500K on Feb. 24th the invasion anniversary. Maybe we already new this and hopefully a lot of this aid package will already be operational in theatre.

That cargo vessel with the 60 Bradleys is marked as 2 days out from Southhampton England. Not sure why they would go there and not Belgium. Maybe a fuel stop or maybe these are to backfill US Bradleys on NATO bases and the ones on NATO bases already shipped to Ukraine.
Probably to be loaded on a train in UK and go directly to the Ukrainian border?
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twk
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In reply to 74OA • 9:00a, 2/3/23
AG
74OA said:
JFABNRGR said:
B-1 83 said:
I would love to see a surprise salvo of a hundred or so before the orcs even know they are operational.
This.

I did not understand why mere days after the last big aid package they announce a new one which is expected to include GLSDBs. Why wouldn't that have already been included and not specified.

There are several articles on reddit stating big rusky attack with 500K on Feb. 24th the invasion anniversary. Maybe we already new this and hopefully a lot of this aid package will already be operational in theatre.

That cargo vessel with the 60 Bradleys is marked as 2 days out from Southhampton England. Not sure why they would go there and not Belgium. Maybe a fuel stop or maybe these are to backfill US Bradleys on NATO bases and the ones on NATO bases already shipped to Ukraine.
Probably to be loaded on a train in UK and go directly to the Ukrainian border?
Some freight moves through the Channel Tunnel, but I'd be shocked if that was the case here. I think the reference to Southampton may just be a navigational point of reference.
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AgLA06
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In reply to 74OA • 9:03a, 2/3/23
AG
74OA said:
JFABNRGR said:
B-1 83 said:
I would love to see a surprise salvo of a hundred or so before the orcs even know they are operational.
This.

I did not understand why mere days after the last big aid package they announce a new one which is expected to include GLSDBs. Why wouldn't that have already been included and not specified.

There are several articles on reddit stating big rusky attack with 500K on Feb. 24th the invasion anniversary. Maybe we already new this and hopefully a lot of this aid package will already be operational in theatre.

That cargo vessel with the 60 Bradleys is marked as 2 days out from Southhampton England. Not sure why they would go there and not Belgium. Maybe a fuel stop or maybe these are to backfill US Bradleys on NATO bases and the ones on NATO bases already shipped to Ukraine.
Probably to be loaded on a train in UK and go directly to the Ukrainian border?


Either is feasible. Could also be doing training with Uke troops first and ship together to Ukraine. I also imagine we're trying to reduce the opportunity for the ship to have an accident in route. Shipping to Britton gives plausible deniability what those units are for.
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LMCane
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In reply to fullback44 • 9:08a, 2/3/23
fullback44 said:
Well considering the HIMARS they have now only have a range of about 45 miles or so, the Russians moved all the amo dumps out of range (45 plus miles) from the HIMARS.. Russia. Is fixing to have another huge round of ammunition depots blowing up all over the place .. they will have to move ammo 95 miles from the front lines very soon.. this is disaster for Russia becoase they may only be occupying land slightly more than 95-100 miles to the coast .. Russia will be running out of places to hide its ammo .. and certainly a long long ways from the front.

Also Crimea is full of ammunition depots .. that place will go up like a Roman candle if it's within reach of these new missiles

Get ready for lots of fireworks again soon.. once the ammo is blown up the lines will once again have to retreat due to low on ammo just like before .. perfect time for a Ukraine offensive when Rusky is low on bullets again.. i suspect lots of death or surrender. There's a reason we are giving them Bradley's and Strykers .. to take out troups as they retreat .. they will need the tanks to deal with Russian tanks and artillery.. none of this will be easy and it will be very bloody once things get in motion

Of course they can use the new missiles for long range surgical strikes as well.. command centers, air defense systems, fuel depots, etc etc etc
I am hoping that the Ukes can come up with a squadron of European fighter bombers and amass them in Poland-

then in one mission fly across the Black Sea shooting up the Russkie navy in Sevastopol

at the exact same time as the new extended range munitions come flying in to blast the SAM defenses and the port facilities.

this war can only be won through surprise and ingenuity
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twk
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In reply to LMCane • 9:28a, 2/3/23
AG
One has to wonder if news of small Russian advances in the East is a sign that the Russians are wearing the Ukrainians down, or if the Ukrainians are simply letting the Russians wear themselves down by pursuing small gains at an exorbitant price. One has to hope the latter, but only time will tell. Of course, ceding just enough ground to keep the Russians focused on the Luhansk area might work out well if Ukraine is trying to build up for an offensive moving South to cut the land bridge to Crimea. Perhaps they can buy enough time to get these new tanks and weapons systems in place for that kind of offensive while keep the Russians preoccupied in the East.
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74OA
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In reply to twk • 9:29a, 2/3/23
AG
twk said:
74OA said:
JFABNRGR said:
B-1 83 said:
I would love to see a surprise salvo of a hundred or so before the orcs even know they are operational.
This.

I did not understand why mere days after the last big aid package they announce a new one which is expected to include GLSDBs. Why wouldn't that have already been included and not specified.

There are several articles on reddit stating big rusky attack with 500K on Feb. 24th the invasion anniversary. Maybe we already new this and hopefully a lot of this aid package will already be operational in theatre.

That cargo vessel with the 60 Bradleys is marked as 2 days out from Southhampton England. Not sure why they would go there and not Belgium. Maybe a fuel stop or maybe these are to backfill US Bradleys on NATO bases and the ones on NATO bases already shipped to Ukraine.
Probably to be loaded on a train in UK and go directly to the Ukrainian border?
Some freight moves through the Channel Tunnel, but I'd be shocked if that was the case here. I think the reference to Southampton may just be a navigational point of reference.
Very likely.......but, for reference, the Chunnel did move 1.4M long-haul freight trucks in '21 which was a down year due to covid.
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74OA
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9:35a, 2/3/23
AG
EU doubles down supporting Ukraine.

AID/SANCTIONS
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74OA
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9:49a, 2/3/23
AG
UPDATE
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2wealfth Man
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10:04a, 2/3/23
AG
Quote:
There are several articles on reddit stating big rusky attack with 500K on Feb. 24th the invasion anniversary. Maybe we already new this and hopefully a lot of this aid package will already be operational in theatre.
where will Orcs get that kind of manpower mobilized, equipped and deployed in three week
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 10:10a, 2/3/23
AG
2wealfth Man said:
Quote:
There are several articles on reddit stating big rusky attack with 500K on Feb. 24th the invasion anniversary. Maybe we already new this and hopefully a lot of this aid package will already be operational in theatre.
where will Orcs get that kind of manpower mobilized, equipped and deployed in three week


Mostly from the mobilization of ~380,000ish troops they did a few months ago. The remainder probably from the 125,000 or so that they originally invaded with who are not already in the line.
The flames of the Imperium burn brightly in the hearts of men repulsed by degenerate modernity. Souls aflame with love of goodness, truth, beauty, justice, and order.
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AgLA06
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 10:26a, 2/3/23
AG
RebelE Infantry said:
2wealfth Man said:
Quote:
There are several articles on reddit stating big rusky attack with 500K on Feb. 24th the invasion anniversary. Maybe we already new this and hopefully a lot of this aid package will already be operational in theatre.
where will Orcs get that kind of manpower mobilized, equipped and deployed in three week


Mostly from the mobilization of ~380,000ish troops they did a few months ago. The remainder probably from the 125,000 or so that they originally invaded with who are not already in the line.
I may not be a math major, but even if they didn't take a single casualty let alone the 100k+ we know they have. That wouldn't get them anywhere near 500k operational troops.

And that's before losing most of the operational equipment and battle hardened leadership since this FUBAR'd operations began.

I'm sure they'll launch an operation. And I'm sure it will take land as the Ukes pull back and make them bleed for it. I would be greatly surprised if this ended up being anything more than the long, drawn out meat grinder we're seeing in Bakhmut that can't be sustained and sure as hell doesn't achieve anything worth the price.

And then hopefully the Ukes launch their own the second it fizzles out and cut the east in half.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 11:44a, 2/3/23
AG
RebelE Infantry said:
2wealfth Man said:
Quote:
There are several articles on reddit stating big rusky attack with 500K on Feb. 24th the invasion anniversary. Maybe we already new this and hopefully a lot of this aid package will already be operational in theatre.
where will Orcs get that kind of manpower mobilized, equipped and deployed in three week


Mostly from the mobilization of ~380,000ish troops they did a few months ago. The remainder probably from the 125,000 or so that they originally invaded with who are not already in the line.
I agree with this. The 500K is likely fluffed a 100K, then using troop numbers already in Ukraine they can probably realistically get to 350-400K. Belarus is also a possibility. I am still not convinced that they are getting in but there is probably a division or two of orcs that has been training there the last few months. The big question will be where will they use them? in the north to Kiev or will they be moved east. I think it has to be Kiev.

Any major offensive by russia, if successful, will have to include airpower and will likely follow a massive drone strike to deplete or confuse ADA. Will the Patriots or other new systems be operational by FEB 24? Seems Ukes went to both Oklahoma and Germany to train on these systems.

Will any of the other hundreds of armor pieces be operational prior to Feb 24th CV90s, Marders, AMX10s?

Of note Maydar yesterday, has stated russians around Bakhmut have switched to attacking at night, while also using cover of snow and fog.

I will set a reminder to check on that ship delivering Brads in a couple days to see if it actually goes in at Southhampton.
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Waffledynamics
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11:48a, 2/3/23
AG
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Waffledynamics
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12:42p, 2/3/23
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