Looks like air defense in Crimea is pretty busy tonight https://t.co/4CoS1QHj02 pic.twitter.com/THZAcb59gK

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) January 15, 2023

I've been thinking about an offensive towards Tokmak and Melitopol. If Ukraine can push South, they'd be bogged down in the urban fighting at those cities and would need to defend their flanks. The topography here may mean they could make a push to take the high ground to the East (that redder portion). That should help alleviate a flank, right?

They'd also ideally need to keep hitting Russian GLOC coming from Crimea to guard their other flank.

Russian Kh-22 missile has hit some meters of members of our team. Just lucky live next door to that house.

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) January 16, 2023

🧵Despite continuous reports from OSINT groups, researchers, and even officials, based on the available to me the information I can't confirm that Russians are having critical logistical issues. Here are some major points:

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) January 12, 2023

Interesting thread. I don't think the Ukes use the social media crap getting thrown out there for intelligence, and consider it in their planning. At least let's hope they don't.

It's possible that Russia is draining the entire arms stockpile of the country and moving it west.

The winter could be train and rebuild while doing just enough to keep Ukraine advancing slowly. Which includes fodder of their least capable/trained troops to keep thr Ukes pinned down.

As said before this is most likely a phyrric victory. What would be interesting is if other occupied nations started getting rowdy as the observe less and less RU presence.. another front or massive Civil unrest would cause Putin great heartburn.

Nonstop Russian TERROR.

Really fascinating deep dive into Infantry Fighting Vehicles by Perun.

Russians target the police

UPDATE

docb said:

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That would be a nice addition. I haven't seen a single video of a night helicopter attack in this war. Apparently 4 are being sent from UK armed with hellfire missels.

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NOT

US military expanding battalion level training for Ukes in Germany

Hurry Up

Perun is one of the best on YouTube. Love his work.

Interesting that Bradleys took out more tanks and suffered less losses than Abrams in Iraq. If the Strikers are retired why aren't we sending them as well.

Percentage wise he states orc losses are higher amongst their more modern versions of armor than the older. The previous statements about them holding the good stuff in reserve a myth and that overall previously reported modernized systems ready for deployment ALL heavily overstated, while ability to manufacture quickly not possible.

Ukrainian ingenuity:
a drone (operated by a team from K2 Battalion of the 🇺🇦54th Separate Mechanized Brigade) picks up and “steals” a piece of valuable russian radio equipment right from the russian positions 🤯 pic.twitter.com/3XTI5H5AXU

— Walter Report 🇺🇦 (@walter_report) January 16, 2023

Burrus86 said:

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74OA said:

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Ukrainian ingenuity:
a drone (operated by a team from K2 Battalion of the 🇺🇦54th Separate Mechanized Brigade) picks up and “steals” a piece of valuable russian radio equipment right from the russian positions 🤯 pic.twitter.com/3XTI5H5AXU

— Walter Report 🇺🇦 (@walter_report) January 16, 2023

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Who else thought they were watching this?

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I definitely did. Feel like it could be staged though as well.

https://t.me/rogozin_do/3603

Translation:

Quote:

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The partners of the Scientific and Technical Center "Tsar's Wolves" - the designers of the private Ural engineering company "Android Technique" (by the way, they are the developers of avatars, including the robot "Fedora" tested on the ISS) created this unique unmanned reconnaissance and strike vehicle "Marker".

"Marker" has technical vision and an automatic control system, in the conditions of electronic warfare it works autonomously, independently performing a combat mission, providing target designation of enemy targets at a distance of at least 15 km, and also prioritizing enemy targets located in the affected area with its own fire weapons .

"Marker" has already been tested as a security system for the Vostochny cosmodrome, providing control of its security perimeter. Now he (more precisely, they - there will be several such machines) will have to undergo a baptism of fire in the Donbass.

Our inspector group is engaged in the organization of its tests. I'll tell you about the results.

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Neat, but I agree likely staged. Even if real, it is one handheld radio from what appears to be an abandoned position.

Today's SITREP.

Here's an overview of the armor in the UK's most recent aid PACKAGE.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyiv-says-it-has-no-defense-against-russias-kh-22-missiles

Would love to see some unidentified stealth weapons wipe out a bunch of their launcher assets. I know we can't do it for reasons that don't need to be discussed (again), but it just sucks to watch Russia hit their civilian areas over and over and know we have the tools in our arsenal to mop the floor with the orcs. At what point do the war crimes over there reach the point that the civilized nations of the world start contemplating something beyond handing over 2nd tier weapons systems in order to stop the deliberate targeting of cities?

We did nothing to stop the massacres in hapless Rowanda, etc…. I don't think we will enter a war with a nuclear power over war crimes.

If the Ukes win, they can do like the Israelis and spend the next 60 years hunting Orc war criminals.

lb3 said:

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We did nothing to stop the massacres in hapless Rowanda, etc…. I don't think we will enter a war with a nuclear power over war crimes.

If the Ukes win, they can do like the Israelis and spend the next 60 years hunting Orc war criminals.

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Rwanda was mostly small militia units driving cars into villages and slaughtering everybody. There were no missile launch platforms like subs, strategic bombers, surface ships, etc. being used in that war. We had very little Intel into the day by day actions in Rwanda and correspondingly, had little ability to intervene in a meaningful way to stop what was happening without putting troop formations into direct conflict. The tech advantage we have over Russia right now would allow us to destroy the Russian launch platforms with the Russians not to know what was happening until after the explosions ended. We can't for reasons that don't need to be rehashed here. But it doesn't change that it is tragic that we have the tools to end it, but can't. At least for now.

Quality thread by Def Mon explaining the situation with his great maps.

Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1615066133010485248.html

Ukraine update🧵 January 16th

This thread it brought to you by Drone operator cat.

It would be helpful if you like and retweet this tweet. pic.twitter.com/C0u7QMD7Lo

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) January 16, 2023

JFABNRGR said:

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Interesting that Bradleys took out more tanks and suffered less losses than Abrams in Iraq. If the Strikers are retired why aren't we sending them as well.

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The only Strykers that I know of being retired are the Mobile Gun System variant with the 105mm gun, which just never worked very well.

Actually, those M2A2 ODS (Operation Desert Storm upgrade - these were being fielded to 1AD and 1ID units in Germany in 2000) might be surplus because of former tank/mech brigades which have been converted to Stryker - 3/2ID at Fort Lewis, 2 ACR, one brigade (not sure which one) of 1AD at Bliss, and a PA NG brigade from 28ID.

Edit: I'll add that, using U.S. Army organization, the reported number of 50 Brads is enough for one full, all mech infantry battalion. That's 3 companies of 14 Brads each (3 platoons of 4 each, plus CO and XO) plus 2 (Cdr, S3) in the battalion command group for a total of 44, with 6 extra for training or as floats.

Back when I was a PL in Germany in the late 90s, a mech infantry battalion actually had 4 rifle companies, and 50 Brads wouldn't even be enough for that.

If the Ukes are using 'battalion tactical groups', I have no idea how many units they could make with 50 tracks.

Ignorant question: how much of a PITA would it be to manufacture new Bradleys, Strykers, etc?

Waffledynamics said:

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Ignorant question: how much of a PITA would it be to manufacture new Bradleys, Strykers, etc?

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A lot. The tooling still exist but a cold production line for an old design is really expensive and the prime contractors will find all sorts of cost factors to increase the profit margins.

It would be far better to just buy from a open production line for a modern platform. One viable option would be the Rheinmetall Lynx. Just place a delivery order for their current COTS model. Use the data gathered from Ukraine to improve the final design if it becomes the US Army's choice for the Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle.

https://milmag.pl/en/ausa-2022-american-rheinmetall-vehicles-premieres-lynx-omfv-demonstrator-for-u-s-army/

BTW, this is the same Lynx vehicle that the Army Next Gen Combat Vehicle CFT disqualified from competition in 2019 on a technicality along with a couple of other contenders because they were hellbent on not granting a 60 day waiver on the delivery date for a prototype to APG. Predictably, the Army had only one vehicle from on vendor for testing and it didn't do what they needed it to do. They ended up scrapping that competition and two years later they solicited again for proposals and accepted the Lynx as one of the prototypes. This is one of many unforced-errors by the government in major acquisition programs for ground vehicles.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/ausa-2019-us-army-unapologetic-for-disqualifying-raytheon-rheinmetall-land-systems-from-omfv-competition

Waffledynamics said:

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Ignorant question: how much of a PITA would it be to manufacture new Bradleys, Strykers, etc?

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I think it's more that we aren't because they're transitioning to a new platform.

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/11/omfv-race-revs-up-all-5-competitors-bid-to-build-bradley-replacement-prototypes/

No need to make new ones when we have hundreds or thousands in reserve and already slated for eventual replacement. There's almost no cost to us aside from some refurbishment and shipping and the ammo to supply these where they are best utilized. It reduces our ongoing maintenance burden to keep them in good order until they would be scrapped if not sold to third world customers.

Very good interview with Gen. Ben Hodges.
States our reluctance is what escalates russia. Like me he also promotes training Ukes on weapon systems not yet agreed to ship.

Slowly, quietly, inexorably, sanctions are squeezing the life out of Russia's industrial capacity.

FAIL