***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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74OA
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This is a big deal!

Putin has lost the gas war against Germany. Amazing the success Berlin has made weaning Germany off of Russian energy blackmail in less than a year.

"In further evidence that Putin has lost the gas war, the German economy and population have been given an unequivocal all-clear by two sources at the same time: the state regulatory authority, and an industry association.

First, the Federal Network Agency officially announced that "a gas shortage this winter is becoming increasingly unlikely." In a newspaper interview, the head of the agency, Klaus Mller, added that he now expects gas prices to stop fluctuating and stabilize around the current level. This is still considerably higher than before, but far lower than the record levels seen in the summer. At these prices, the energy-intensive sectors of German industry "could finally work on gaining ground again," Mller said.

Shortly afterward, INES, the Association of German Gas and Hydrogen Storage Operators, presented scenarios for 2023 at its monthly press conference. Assuming normal weather and temperatures, the fill level at the end of this winter would be 65%, he said. That would be an extremely comfortable starting point for gas storage during the summer months, and for ensuring fill levels of 100% as early as September.

In other words, industry experts are assuring German businesses and households that they need not expect any problems with gas reserves either this winter or next."

ENERGY
80sGeorge
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Waffledynamics
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AlaskanAg99
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Bucees' *******s doin' work!
aTm '99
Waffledynamics
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Thread about strategic goings on in Ukraine's East: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1614075724515905538.html

Waffledynamics
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The politicking over German support continues.
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
fullback44
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74OA said:

This is a big deal!

Putin has lost the gas war against Germany. Amazing the success Berlin has made weaning Germany off of Russian energy blackmail in less than a year.

"In further evidence that Putin has lost the gas war, the German economy and population have been given an unequivocal all-clear by two sources at the same time: the state regulatory authority, and an industry association.

First, the Federal Network Agency officially announced that "a gas shortage this winter is becoming increasingly unlikely." In a newspaper interview, the head of the agency, Klaus Mller, added that he now expects gas prices to stop fluctuating and stabilize around the current level. This is still considerably higher than before, but far lower than the record levels seen in the summer. At these prices, the energy-intensive sectors of German industry "could finally work on gaining ground again," Mller said.

Shortly afterward, INES, the Association of German Gas and Hydrogen Storage Operators, presented scenarios for 2023 at its monthly press conference. Assuming normal weather and temperatures, the fill level at the end of this winter would be 65%, he said. That would be an extremely comfortable starting point for gas storage during the summer months, and for ensuring fill levels of 100% as early as September.

In other words, industry experts are assuring German businesses and households that they need not expect any problems with gas reserves either this winter or next."

ENERGY


I would take this article with a grain of salt, one our companies chemical suppliers was from the EU specifically Germany. we talked to him this week, he said everyone is doing fine and no one is Cold.. they are all being careful how they use the heating oil and nat gas these days. He did say that all the big trading companies that rented up all the big tanks and filled them with heating oil in the fall are worried they will lose their "arse" if crude doesn't go back up.. the demand just hasn't been their like everyone thought it would be, they may lose on all the heating oil they stockpiled at higher prices.

He did say that the biggest hit was some of the factories shutting down and not restating .. he said many chemical plants are shut down because the nat gas that is available is so high they can't afford to run.. so although their is plenty of fuel available for the public to stay warm, some businesses are taking the real hits .. definitely not ideal with nat gas at 8-10 times higher now (as compared to when they had Gazproms gas)

Putin has put these huge chemical plants in a hard spot.. maybe by March or April they can all get back to production once they know the public won't need the gas and the prices go back down .. ?
LMCane
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The problem right now is that it appears there is no real strategic reserve for the Ukes...

Soledar is pretty critical in being able to hold on to Bahkmut, and yet the defenses have crumbled over the course of a week with no real ability to reenforce or launch local counter-attacks to retake the high ground to the south of Soledar (which would protect Bahkmut)

that is pretty concerning.

hopefully the Ukes are keeping/creating a reserve back along the Belarus border and in training on advanced armor tactics.

They need to take Svatove and unhinge the northeast corridor.
74OA
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fullback44 said:

74OA said:

This is a big deal!

Putin has lost the gas war against Germany. Amazing the success Berlin has made weaning Germany off of Russian energy blackmail in less than a year.

"In further evidence that Putin has lost the gas war, the German economy and population have been given an unequivocal all-clear by two sources at the same time: the state regulatory authority, and an industry association.

First, the Federal Network Agency officially announced that "a gas shortage this winter is becoming increasingly unlikely." In a newspaper interview, the head of the agency, Klaus Mller, added that he now expects gas prices to stop fluctuating and stabilize around the current level. This is still considerably higher than before, but far lower than the record levels seen in the summer. At these prices, the energy-intensive sectors of German industry "could finally work on gaining ground again," Mller said.

Shortly afterward, INES, the Association of German Gas and Hydrogen Storage Operators, presented scenarios for 2023 at its monthly press conference. Assuming normal weather and temperatures, the fill level at the end of this winter would be 65%, he said. That would be an extremely comfortable starting point for gas storage during the summer months, and for ensuring fill levels of 100% as early as September.

In other words, industry experts are assuring German businesses and households that they need not expect any problems with gas reserves either this winter or next."

ENERGY


I would take this article with a grain of salt, one our companies chemical suppliers was from the EU specifically Germany. we talked to him this week, he said everyone is doing fine and no one is Cold.. they are all being careful how they use the heating oil and nat gas these days. He did say that all the big trading companies that rented up all the big tanks and filled them with heating oil in the fall are worried they will lose their "arse" if crude doesn't go back up.. the demand just hasn't been their like everyone thought it would be, they may lose on all the heating oil they stockpiled at higher prices.

He did say that the biggest hit was some of the factories shutting down and not restating .. he said many chemical plants are shut down because the nat gas that is available is so high they can't afford to run.. so although their is plenty of fuel available for the public to stay warm, some businesses are taking the real hits .. definitely not ideal with nat gas at 8-10 times higher now (as compared to when they had Gazproms gas)

Putin has put these huge chemical plants in a hard spot.. maybe by March or April they can all get back to production once they know the public won't need the gas and the prices go back down .. ?
PRICES
shiftyandquick
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I think it's worth listening to Michael Morrell on his latest podcast about where he thinks things are going in the war and how the west should be responding. Former acting director of the CIA.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/38G1pJMoEC6c6JjXStzsiO
fullback44
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74OA said:

fullback44 said:

74OA said:

This is a big deal!

Putin has lost the gas war against Germany. Amazing the success Berlin has made weaning Germany off of Russian energy blackmail in less than a year.

"In further evidence that Putin has lost the gas war, the German economy and population have been given an unequivocal all-clear by two sources at the same time: the state regulatory authority, and an industry association.

First, the Federal Network Agency officially announced that "a gas shortage this winter is becoming increasingly unlikely." In a newspaper interview, the head of the agency, Klaus Mller, added that he now expects gas prices to stop fluctuating and stabilize around the current level. This is still considerably higher than before, but far lower than the record levels seen in the summer. At these prices, the energy-intensive sectors of German industry "could finally work on gaining ground again," Mller said.

Shortly afterward, INES, the Association of German Gas and Hydrogen Storage Operators, presented scenarios for 2023 at its monthly press conference. Assuming normal weather and temperatures, the fill level at the end of this winter would be 65%, he said. That would be an extremely comfortable starting point for gas storage during the summer months, and for ensuring fill levels of 100% as early as September.

In other words, industry experts are assuring German businesses and households that they need not expect any problems with gas reserves either this winter or next."

ENERGY


I would take this article with a grain of salt, one our companies chemical suppliers was from the EU specifically Germany. we talked to him this week, he said everyone is doing fine and no one is Cold.. they are all being careful how they use the heating oil and nat gas these days. He did say that all the big trading companies that rented up all the big tanks and filled them with heating oil in the fall are worried they will lose their "arse" if crude doesn't go back up.. the demand just hasn't been their like everyone thought it would be, they may lose on all the heating oil they stockpiled at higher prices.

He did say that the biggest hit was some of the factories shutting down and not restating .. he said many chemical plants are shut down because the nat gas that is available is so high they can't afford to run.. so although their is plenty of fuel available for the public to stay warm, some businesses are taking the real hits .. definitely not ideal with nat gas at 8-10 times higher now (as compared to when they had Gazproms gas)

Putin has put these huge chemical plants in a hard spot.. maybe by March or April they can all get back to production once they know the public won't need the gas and the prices go back down .. ?
PRICES


The EUs natural gas prices are still 6-7 times that of the US .. you can't make chemicals when your neighbors have energy 6-7 times cheaper than you.. per my customer many of the big chemcial plants remain idled …. We have t seen our normal product shipments for the EU in over 16 months now .. not one drop.. too high of a cost for energy ..

The EU has been struggling.. first Covid then Putins war ….
Waffledynamics
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Russia launched another missile attack on civilian targets around the country.



Quote:

Russia deployed 5 ships with 36 Kaliber missiles in the Black Sea
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/14-january-russia-deployed-5-ships-with-36-kaliber-missiles

Quote:

Rescue operation ongoing after missile hit high-rise residential apartments block in Dnipro city, people under the rubble
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/14-january-rescue-operation-ongoing-after-missile-hit-highrise

Quote:

Air defense is active in Kyiv
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/14-january-air-defense-is-active-in-kyiv

Quote:

Missile hit at critical infrastructure in Lviv region
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/14-january-missile-hit-at-critical-infrastructure-in-lviv

Waffledynamics
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74OA
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Waffledynamics said:


It's a nice gesture, but that's all it is. A handful of bespoke tanks that haven't had a major update since '98 and, because of its rifled barrel, can't fire standard 120mm ammo. Plus, the UK only has ~200 still in service and Ukraine needs hundreds of tanks. Drawing on the roughly 2000 Leopards in Europe makes more sense. Plenty of stock and continent-wide logistics to tap into.
P.U.T.U
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Probably just use them like the Russians have been doing with the T64s, put them at road blocks and check points.

Reading a few reports you really do wonder how many Russians have actually died. The Wagner group pretty much running over dead bodies of conscripts when they advance
docb
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That would be a nice addition. I haven't seen a single video of a night helicopter attack in this war. Apparently 4 are being sent from UK armed with hellfire missels.

MouthBQ98
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A Challenger 1 has the longest range confirmed direct fire single shot main tank gun kill using essentially the same gun and ammo. The rifled 120mm on the challenger 2 is very capable, but yes, it is not compatible with standard 120mm smooth bore ammo used by other NATO tanks.

Even lacking the latest updates, it is a very good tank compared to what it would be up against.
The problem is numbers. 10 tanks is basically a company. Trained up, they might make the heavy forces of a battalion to be used in a break through assault or to break up an enemy attack in an open area.
JFABNRGR
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docb said:

That would be a nice addition. I haven't seen a single video of a night helicopter attack in this war. Apparently 4 are being sent from UK armed with hellfire missels.




Brit volunteer pilots?
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
docb
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Not sure
Ghost of Bisbee
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How long do you guys expect this war to continue for?
aezmvp
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Ghost of Bisbee said:

How long do you guys expect this war to continue for?
At least through the summer. You would have to have a major breakdown on the Russian side or a complete collapse in international aid on the Uke side for anything sooner.

Either of those could happen, but they aren't more than a 20 to 25% chance. IMHO.
Ulysses90
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https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1614451625682432000.html
knj2417
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I mean…really?

Russian army shelled Red Cross office in Kherson https://liveuamap.com//en/2023/15-january-russian-army-shelled-red-cross-office-in-kherson
JFABNRGR
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JFABNRGR said:

docb said:

That would be a nice addition. I haven't seen a single video of a night helicopter attack in this war. Apparently 4 are being sent from UK armed with hellfire missels.




Brit volunteer pilots?


Fake news apparently…..and sadly.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Jetpilot86
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JFABNRGR said:

JFABNRGR said:

docb said:

That would be a nice addition. I haven't seen a single video of a night helicopter attack in this war. Apparently 4 are being sent from UK armed with hellfire missels.




Brit volunteer pilots?


Fake news apparently…..and sadly.


I'm sure RU already claimed to have shot them down.
txags92
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knj2417 said:

I mean…really?

Russian army shelled Red Cross office in Kherson https://liveuamap.com//en/2023/15-january-russian-army-shelled-red-cross-office-in-kherson

Well, it's not like they actually know where the shells are going when they launch them. "Towards the city" is reportedly about as close as their artillery accuracy is capable of these days.
lb3
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Ghost of Bisbee said:

How long do you guys expect this war to continue for?
This is difficult to answer. Ukrain is receiving new weapons such as Patriot missile batteries and armor that will take months to train and employ. Those aren't short term investments like with NLAWs and Javalins.

Russia is also planning to mobilize another 500k soldiers for a spring offensive. That's either going to lead to a major breakthrough and Ukrainian collapse or the Russians will be stopped short of their objectives and we'll see another year of attritional warfare as the Ukes try to bleed out the Russians.

Short of the Ukrainians completely cutting off Crimea, resulting in a coup in Moscow and a negotiated settlement, I have a hard time envisioning how this ends in 2023.
Waffledynamics
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lb3 said:

Ghost of Bisbee said:

How long do you guys expect this war to continue for?
This is difficult to answer. Ukrain is receiving new weapons such as Patriot missile batteries and armor that will take months to train and employ. Those aren't short term investments like with NLAWs and Javalins.

Russia is also planning to mobilize another 500k soldiers for a spring offensive. That's either going to lead to a major breakthrough and Ukrainian collapse or the Russians will be stopped short of their objectives and we'll see another year of attritional warfare as the Ukes try to bleed out the Russians.

Short of the Ukrainians completely cutting off Crimea, resulting in a coup in Moscow and a negotiated settlement, I have a hard time envisioning how this ends in 2023.


If you're Ukraine, do you plan on offensives or to hold as much as you can and bleed the Russians in a long game for the near future?
GarryowenAg
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Waffledynamics said:

lb3 said:

Ghost of Bisbee said:

How long do you guys expect this war to continue for?
This is difficult to answer. Ukrain is receiving new weapons such as Patriot missile batteries and armor that will take months to train and employ. Those aren't short term investments like with NLAWs and Javalins.

Russia is also planning to mobilize another 500k soldiers for a spring offensive. That's either going to lead to a major breakthrough and Ukrainian collapse or the Russians will be stopped short of their objectives and we'll see another year of attritional warfare as the Ukes try to bleed out the Russians.

Short of the Ukrainians completely cutting off Crimea, resulting in a coup in Moscow and a negotiated settlement, I have a hard time envisioning how this ends in 2023.


If you're Ukraine, do you plan on offensives or to hold as much as you can and bleed the Russians in a long game for the near future?
I would expect them to launch a spearhead toward Melitopol or Mariupol to cut the Russian southern forces in half, thereby cutting off all supply lines into Crimea like they did in the Kherson region.
docb
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JFABNRGR said:

JFABNRGR said:

docb said:

That would be a nice addition. I haven't seen a single video of a night helicopter attack in this war. Apparently 4 are being sent from UK armed with hellfire missels.




Brit volunteer pilots?


Fake news apparently…..and sadly.

I just read a yahoo article that the Ukrainian pilots would be trained in Britain.
74OA
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Build It
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lb3 said:

Ghost of Bisbee said:

How long do you guys expect this war to continue for?
"Russia is also planning to mobilize another 500k soldiers for a spring offensive. That's either going to lead to a major breakthrough and Ukrainian collapse or the Russians will be stopped short of their objectives and we'll see another year of attritional warfare as the Ukes try to bleed out the Russians"
It could also start a Russian Federation civil war. Putin isn't getting these recruits from the streets of Moscow and St. Petersburg. What if those eastern States tell him to pound sand?
74OA
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I'm guessing the reason Russia is suddenly reasonable is because it needs those rocket components to launch a military payload up.

SWAP
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russian serviceman has blown up RGD-5 grenade at his military unit in Belgorod region, killing 3, wounding 10 and blowing up the ammunition storage


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/15-january-russian-serviceman-has-blown-up-rgd5-grenade-at

Posted 9 hours ago on LiveUaMap as i write this.
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