Miles and miles of tunnels. The Ukes are luring them in before the Turkey shoot. Playing the long game.

Time will tell on this battle but I wouldn't count them out yet.

Russia seems to be using conscripts to waste the Ukes ammunition and then follow up with the experienced Wagner group to flank or attack. Someone posted about trading bullets for men and that is exactly what they are doing

Eyes are now on the last part of Soledar, Krasna Hora and Paraskoviivka area. If RuAF are able to progress and establish positions here, they have a control of the northern supply route to Bakhmut. pic.twitter.com/69gxmFMSK0

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) January 12, 2023

txags92 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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With APFSDS ammunition the 25mm can penetrate some of the side and for sure the rear armor of Soviet era tank, but at ranges where the tank could hit and kill the Bradley with the main gun, so unless you ambush them, it is risky.

Better to stand off and use the TOW, which can outrange accurate fire from the Russian 115 and 125mm gun systems in Soviet era tanks.

Better yet is to use the superior optics of the Bradley and communications to locate enemy forces and vector artillery or tanks or drones into them.

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Excellent ADD thanks and I agree on the CC aspect for calling fires for IDF support.

Can the TOW fire on the move or need to be stationary?

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The TOW is wire guided, so you have to keep the site aimed at the target at least for the first portion of the flight. Theoretically, with a stabilized site, you can do that while moving, but you risk losing the wires if there are trees or obstructions around.

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Wireless TOW is the current US standard. No idea which TOW model is being provided for use with the M2A2-ODS Bradley variant that Ukraine is receiving.

Wouldn't you have to change the acronym since TOW stands for Tube launched Optically tracked Wire-guided?

JR_83 said:

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Wouldn't you have to change the acronym since TOW stands for Tube launched Optically tracked Wire-guided?

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Why can't it just be Wireless instead of Wire-guided? Even for the wireless model, it is still receiving guidance from the launcher, correct? So if you are going to try to shoot on the move, you need a stabilized sight and terrain that is amenable for maintaining line of sight.

JR_83 said:

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Wouldn't you have to change the acronym since TOW stands for Tube launched Optically tracked Wire-guided?

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Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wireless-Guided. Differentiated from wire-guided TOW by the various suffixes attached to the missile's BGM-71 designation.

TOW

Wire guided should have been obsolete years ago. Why not use drone to laze target and then fire from anywhere within weapon range out of sight behind cover.

Either way send the Bradleys asap. I am excited to see the Ukes use them combined with what they already have. It will take big balls for a soldier to stand up stabilize an ATGM and try to target something with 25 or 30MM screaming past around and eventually through you.

Today's SITREP.

So this was an interesting listen, The Economist - Babbage: How Elon Musk's satellites could change warfare forever, The first part focuses specifically on Ukraine and there is a part where they discuss how they are using them on the ground, Howitzer Uber.

Abandoning months of denials, Russians now admitting they often hit Ukrainian units from within by wearing Ukrainian uniforms. pic.twitter.com/DtAwyrK5uP

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) January 12, 2023

russian tanks attempt to push into Mariinka, Donetsk oblast.

The city has been completely destroyed by russians.

The video provides a glimpse into the sheer scale of destruction. pic.twitter.com/mf9VBeD0qj

— Walter Report 🇺🇦 (@walter_report) January 12, 2023

The MO for Russia seems to be to reduce the town to rubble and derelict buildings with artillery and then infiltrate infantry assaults and if that fails, maybe roll in tanks and randomly shoot at remaining buildings?

Ukraine really needs more western equipment and training. They could absolutely maul the Russians with their predictable plodding attacks.

They have been, however Russia is simply using their WWII tactics and throwing meat into the grinder.

I'd be curious to know where all the mercenaries are coming from.

If you mean Wagner, they're recruiting from the various populations in the Russian Federation, but also prisons. Definitely prisons.

Russian Urban Fighting 101

1) Shell Ukranian position
2) Send in conscripts en masse
3) Shell Ukranian position again, shelling own conscripts
4) Send in experienced soldiers
5) Withdraw experienced soldiers/solidify minor gains
6) Replace experienced soldiers with conscripts to hold newly taken ground and absorb counter artillery fire

Rinse and repeat

Keep in mind that Ukraine has been inflicting as much pain as possible and makes the gains extremely painful for Russia. They have used a mobile defense throughout the war.

Russia has a substantial population of poor and what they might regard as ethnically disfavored groups within and they've been giving them offers they can't easily refuse to help Russia fight this war. They also have likely moved most of the mercenaries they were employing for political influence abroad back to Russia and I imagine recruited from amongst their allies.

What amazes me also is how puppet state Belarus has sort of avoided serious consequences from having supported and staged the initial invasion and hosts an ongoing threatening force .

Imagine if Ukraine had rolled a couple of brigades through Poland and launched into the Kalinin enclave, would Russia just stand by? I suppose the idea right now is to not provoke a larger war or second front.

Quote:

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Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full control over Soledar since last night

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/13-january-russian-ministry-of-defense-claimed-full-control

Ukraine disagrees.

Quote:

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Battle for Soledar in Donetsk region continues, - General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/13-january-battle-for-soledar-in-donetsk-region-continues

UPDATE

I'm not really sure the thought process in announcing what weapons are being sent to Ukraine. Seem like it would just be better to introduce the new weapons on the battlefield. I really hope we can send a fair number of Abrams over there. Put them on the border of Belarus as a deterrent so they can use their other tanks in the east and south. Should be easier to maintain them near Kiev I would think.

docb said:

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I'm not really sure the thought process in announcing what weapons are being sent to Ukraine. Seem like it would just be better to introduce the new weapons on the battlefield. I really hope we can send a fair number of Abrams over there. Put them on the border of Belarus as a deterrent so they can use their other tanks in the east and south. Should be easier to maintain them near Kiev I would think.

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1. Discourage the Russians.
2. Encourage the Ukrainians.
3. Publicize the West's commitment.

74OA said:

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docb said:

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I'm not really sure the thought process in announcing what weapons are being sent to Ukraine. Seem like it would just be better to introduce the new weapons on the battlefield. I really hope we can send a fair number of Abrams over there. Put them on the border of Belarus as a deterrent so they can use their other tanks in the east and south. Should be easier to maintain them near Kiev I would think.

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1. Discourage the Russians.
2. Encourage the Ukrainians.
3. Publicize the West's commitment.

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I'm sure you are right. I just think from a tactical standpoint you would undoubtedly do a lot more damage if they did not know something was coming.

docb said:

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74OA said:

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docb said:

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I'm not really sure the thought process in announcing what weapons are being sent to Ukraine. Seem like it would just be better to introduce the new weapons on the battlefield. I really hope we can send a fair number of Abrams over there. Put them on the border of Belarus as a deterrent so they can use their other tanks in the east and south. Should be easier to maintain them near Kiev I would think.

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1. Discourage the Russians.
2. Encourage the Ukrainians.
3. Publicize the West's commitment.

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I'm sure you are right. I just think from a tactical standpoint you would undoubtedly do a lot more damage if they did not know something was coming.

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It's as much a contest of will as anything else. Important to let Ukraine know help is coming and also maintain a sense of solidarity among its Western backers. Besides, no one is sneaking heavy ground systems into Ukraine without Russian intelligence knowing well in advance.

Here's a quick pros-and-cons look at available Western tanks. DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS

docb said:

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I'm not really sure the thought process in announcing what weapons are being sent to Ukraine. Seem like it would just be better to introduce the new weapons on the battlefield. I really hope we can send a fair number of Abrams over there. Put them on the border of Belarus as a deterrent so they can use their other tanks in the east and south. Should be easier to maintain them near Kiev I would think.

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Based on what I've read, it would be the opposite. Abrams are best utilized in wide open landscapes due to their heavy weight / size and ability to slug it out at far distances.

So Abrams would be better suited to the East and others on the heavily wooded / marsh Belarus border.

My personal opinion is Abrams just don't make much sense compared to just about any alternative regardless.

74OA said:

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docb said:

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I'm not really sure the thought process in announcing what weapons are being sent to Ukraine. Seem like it would just be better to introduce the new weapons on the battlefield. I really hope we can send a fair number of Abrams over there. Put them on the border of Belarus as a deterrent so they can use their other tanks in the east and south. Should be easier to maintain them near Kiev I would think.

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1. Discourage the Russians.
2. Encourage the Ukrainians.
3. Publicize the West's commitment.

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4. Encourage / shame / pressure other countries to pull their weight and also contribute accordingly

docb said:

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I'm not really sure the thought process in announcing what weapons are being sent to Ukraine. Seem like it would just be better to introduce the new weapons on the battlefield. I really hope we can send a fair number of Abrams over there. Put them on the border of Belarus as a deterrent so they can use their other tanks in the east and south. Should be easier to maintain them near Kiev I would think.

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It's not really a secret. Russia has eyes on various European ports, airports, highways, and railways. They know the big stuff we're sending.

Not sure why anyone would be surprised since Russia treats its soldiers as cannon fodder anyway.

WOUNDED

You don't need to be healthy to be a lead or steel catcher. You just need to be ambulatory.

lb3 said:

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docb said:

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I'm not really sure the thought process in announcing what weapons are being sent to Ukraine. Seem like it would just be better to introduce the new weapons on the battlefield. I really hope we can send a fair number of Abrams over there. Put them on the border of Belarus as a deterrent so they can use their other tanks in the east and south. Should be easier to maintain them near Kiev I would think.

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It's not really a secret. Russia has eyes on various European ports, airports, highways, and railways. They know the big stuff we're sending.

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I get that you can't sneak in a large group of tanks to the frontlines. But I'm sure that there are weapons that you can. For instance take the ATACMS. If you announced that then Russia could move assets out of range. But if it just showed up one day then I would think a lot of priority targets could be hit.

docb said:

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I'm not really sure the thought process in announcing what weapons are being sent to Ukraine. Seem like it would just be better to introduce the new weapons on the battlefield. I really hope we can send a fair number of Abrams over there. Put them on the border of Belarus as a deterrent so they can use their other tanks in the east and south. Should be easier to maintain them near Kiev I would think.

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It gives the Russians a chance to claim killing said equipment before they even arrive (Bradleys). Always give RU a chance to look stupid in the eyes of the world.