JFABNRGR said:

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revvie said:

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Read previously about Russians attacking balloon. Whether accurate or not I have no clue. But it got me thinking. What prevents Ukraine attaching drones to balloons that can float deep into Russian territory before being released increasing their effective range. Release hundreds and only a few are bonafide attack drones.

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Limitations on communication control. You could preprogram target coordinates but then the issue is on how and when to release the drone from the balloon of which you likely have no location on. It could be done but not in any mass quantities like we see dropping frags on orcs. Somebody on here is in drone development and can input more technical comments.

Use of balloons for decoys could help confuse ADA and help reduce ammo. Be great to see a few S300/400s shot at decoys. Then mix in the real deal.

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I am sure some bright minds are working on communication and control issues. Probably cost prohibitive to do en mass to prevent jamming. However a drone that already has coordinates of static targets could theoretically float into a general direction of target and automatically deploy whenever it falls within weapon effective radius based on internal GPS coordinates and then guide itself to target.

Russia shifted North of Bakhmut towards Soledar and are threatening that city in an effort to encircle Bakhmut. They have even captured Bakhmutske.

Additional information from DeepState Project as of a few hours ago:

https://t.me/DeepStateUA/15106

Quote:

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On the border with White Moscow - no changes . The Ministry of Defense of the White Muscovites reported on the expansion of a group of troops jointly with the Katsapas.

In the Swativ direction, positional battles continue on the southern face.

Bakhmut region - the enemy managed to take control of Bakhmut region and significantly advance towards the center of Soledar. Due to flank breakthroughs, ours have to level the LBZ. The vanguard of the enemy managed to penetrate into Bakhmut's dacha. The enemy continues the assault in the area of Klishchiivka and builds a bridgehead behind the canal west of Kurdyumivka.

Avdiiv district - no changes on the map. The situation in Avdiivka, Pervomaiskyi and Marinka is stable.

The Zaporozhye shade is unchanged.

Taurian shade - no changes.

The map will be updated within an hour.

Today we collected 3 drones for 79/60/1 brigades. Preliminary reserves will still go to three drones. And now we are simply overwhelmed with a lot of requests: Soledar, Krasna Gora, Pidgorodne, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Diliivka. We try to help as many military personnel as possible, but we are simply not enough for everyone. Please be understanding if we cannot/do not have time to close your request.

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https://deepstatemap.live/en#7/49.396/34.973

Around Soledar, Russia is pushing around the city, they are unable to attack the city itself. Surrounding the city will be extraordinarily difficult, vastly more difficult than any map makes it look. pic.twitter.com/sdycN2I1v4

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) January 5, 2023

txags92 said:

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GAC06 said:

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Need to stop messing around with 50 IFV's here, a battalion of old T-55's there. Equip and train brigades with Leopards or Abrams and Bradley or similar IFV/APC's.

Start ASAP and have them ready for when the mud subsides

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It isn't just training a crew to operate them, it is training the mechanics and providing the stockpiles of tools and parts to maintain and repair them. The turbine engine in an Abrams is completely different than the diesel engines the Ukrainian mechanics are used to working on. There is no point in giving them tanks they can't adequately maintain.

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When they break they can ship the vehicles or the parts needing to be fixed to Poland or Germany. We have huge stockpiles of these vehicles that exist only to fight Russia.

Ukraine doesn't need to fight a campaign to Moscow, they need to take a sledgehammer to the worn out Russian army remaining in the fringe of eastern Ukraine.

Also we're already giving them a hodgepodge of western systems they aren't familiar with. A handful of marders that are new to them to match a handful of bradleys. Plus the m1117's, various flavors of MRAPS, at four different new-to-Ukraine self propelled guns, and the list goes on. The "they can't maintain it" argument made more sense when we were talking about rushing replacements for their existing gear when it looked like Russia might still roll them up.

Now we need to commit and give them what they need at the scale they need it. Brigades of western armor with NATO logistical support will be better than a mismatched hodgepodge of western gear and one-offs.

P.U.T.U said:

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LiDAR is very expensive so these may only be available in limited supply.

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It may not be true LiDAR (time of flight measurements). At the limited ranges of these munitions and their spinning nature would allow a simple (and cheap) linear CCD to be used to measure parallax and calculate distance quite accurately.

Will someone please think of the poor Belarusian border guards? Their country has had it so rough.

📽️🇧🇾 Belarusian border guards accuse Ukraine of provocative actions on the border, saying Ukrainians behave aggressively, pointing guns at them and verbally insults them. #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/Cv8cfDt63c

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) January 5, 2023

GinMan said:

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This is definitely a game changer

#Ukraine: The first confirmation of the delivery of very potent 🇫🇷 French 155 BONUS anti-tank cargo artillery projectiles to Ukraine, each of which carry two top-attack EFP submunitions which find their targets using three multiband IR sensors and LIDAR.

h/t @RALee85 pic.twitter.com/TtUs0jVUaj

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) January 4, 2023

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If Russia attacks Kieve again from Belarus, I wonder if the US will give Ukraine M26 Cluster munitions ? They could easily take out lots of tanks, armored vehicles, and troops, it would rain havoc on the Russians ..

Russia. Has already used cluster munitions on Ukraine

"On Wednesday, the Elyse announced that French-made AMX-10 RC light tanks which were designed in the 1980s and are currently being phased out of the French military will be sent to Ukraine. The move is a significant change of position from the Macron government, which hitherto has shied away from sending armour to the war zone for fear of escalating tensions with Moscow.

France has already been supplying Kyiv (Kiev) with air defence systems, anti-aircraft missiles, artillery, and armoured vehicles, but President Macron has been one of the few voices in Europe to consistently call for continued peace negotiations with Vladimir Putin to bring the conflict to an end.

The decision to send French-made tanks to the battlefield appears, therefore, to be a first move in shifting perspectives from western capitals on the viability of peace talks with the Kremlin.


President Zelensky for his part wrote on Twitter: "Had a long and detailed conversation with President of France Emmanuel Macron on the current situation. Thanked for the decision to transfer light tanks and Bastion APCs to Ukraine, as well as for intensifying work with partners in the same direction."

Just days later, U.S. President Biden said he too would be sending armoured fighting vehicles to Ukraine, selecting Bradley M2s to be donated. Germany is also getting involved, announcing at the same time it would be sending Marder IFVs to Ukraine"

Ulysses90 said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Intel would show a buildup of vehicles. Most of what I have seen shows stuff going east, not to the north, but perhaps they are anticipating that is going to change. A significant attack would require a substantial logistical buildup.

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Based on the descriptions of Zeihan and Telenko, it would seem that those vehicles going to Belarus would likely be 1950s era Soviet vehicles that have been pulled out of boneyard parking lots where they have been parked for decades. Those are not the type of vehicles that would fair well in supporting a fight against an extremely well defended position even in the hands of well trained troops.

The only other source of military vehicles for Russia is to pull them from the borders of other European and Chinese or 'Stan borders. The Russians are "accepting risk" on an unprecedented scale by post WW II standards by moving equipment from the other borders but, the probability of war in Ukraine is 100% and the probability of war on the other borders is extremely low as long as nukes don't fly.

Civilian trucks that are confiscated for the war effort are not only poorly suited to the job but they leave gaps in the Russian supply chain to just get food on the shelf. Of course, they are imposing the pain on the southeast border states of the Federation first but the supply of trucks from the rest of the RF is rapidly dwindling and at some point it will be only Moscow and St Petersburg that will have functional truck based logistics for their populations.

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but the reality is that no matter how many lies the Russkies tell,

in actual REALITY they have no worries about any conventional military attack upon their borders.

because they have thousands of WMD, Moscow knows they do not have to worry about a ground invasion- thus giving them the ability to literally send every weapon they have to Ukraine.

even the Chinese will not invade with a nuclear umbrella defending the Far East.

Older Bradley's with thermal sights and TOW missiles could be pretty effective. It would provide some mobility and anti-armor capability. TOW can take out pretty much any Warsaw pact armored vehicle. The Bushmaster isn't bad against anything lighter, and its armor is better than the BMP's they have. It won't stop an ATGW or large cannon round but is proof against any small arm. They might be very useful in providing an ability to stop and counter night infiltration attacks by infantry if they can be positioned to spot them and engage, and increased mobility for a counterattacking force as well.

They're not tanks, but they have the advantage of being able to transport infantry or cargo.

lb3 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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LiDAR is very expensive so these may only be available in limited supply.

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It may not be true LiDAR (time of flight measurements). At the limited ranges of these munitions and their spinning nature would allow a simple (and cheap) linear CCD to be used to measure parallax and calculate distance quite accurately.

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Yeah I don't think it is true LiDAR for the same reason you mentioned. I work with 2 manufactures and the range is very limited for missile systems. But still some awesome technology.

For those that don't know LiDAR is $10-20k each in limited quantities. Pricing gets lower with volume but it puts things in perspective how expensive these high technology weapons are

I think mobility is the key right now with the frozen ground, fire some artillery and come in underneath. Russia has fortified a lot of positions where it would not be smart to advance on foot in the open. Russia is putting a lot of equipment and men in the east so they need to hurry up with the transfer

Reading a few websites it does look like Russia is about to make a major move in the east and north. I thought the push for Kyiv was over but it looks not. If Ukraine can hold them off until the spring I think they will be in a good position

P.U.T.U said:

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I think mobility is the key right now with the frozen ground, fire some artillery and come in underneath. Russia has fortified a lot of positions where it would not be smart to advance on foot in the open. Russia is putting a lot of equipment and men in the east so they need to hurry up with the transfer

Reading a few websites it does look like Russia is about to make a major move in the east and north. I thought the push for Kyiv was over but it looks not. If Ukraine can hold them off until the spring I think they will be in a good position

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Problem is, it's actually not very cold in Ukraine right now. It's above freezing in the area where Ukraine would be mostly likely to mount an armored counteroffensive (on the left bank of the Dnipro, moving south toward Melitopol and the Sea of Azov). In a normal winter, hard frozen ground would make offensives possible in the dead of winter, but right now, the weather is not really conducive to that, from what I've seen. Of course, that could change. Maybe the Ukes are just waiting for one good cold snap to launch an offensive (I could see that being very effective against ill equipped Russian troops, coming in under the cover of a winter storm).

Agreed, they seem to be doing the same thing they were doing in June/July and knocking out ammo depots and Russian troop barracks. They will do that for a few weeks and then go on the offensive if they are using the same playbook. Worked well the first time

MouthBQ98 said:

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Older Bradley's with thermal sights and TOW missiles could be pretty effective. It would provide some mobility and anti-armor capability. TOW can take out pretty much any Warsaw pact armored vehicle. The Bushmaster isn't bad against anything lighter, and its armor is better than the BMP's they have. It won't stop an ATGW or large cannon round but is proof against any small arm. They might be very useful in providing an ability to stop and counter night infiltration attacks by infantry if they can be positioned to spot them and engage, and increased mobility for a counterattacking force as well.

They're not tanks, but they have the advantage of being able to transport infantry or cargo.

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Even more effective with the ground in flux between hardening mud to hard, packed frozen ground and when it starts to thaw. They'll be able to not get stuck as easily as the main battle tanks. For reference, M1a1 weighs about 55 tons, t80s and t72s weigh about 42 tons. If you could time an offensive where your Bradley's with antitank capability could be mobile but the enemies MBTs are literally stuck in the mud, you could push some big gains.

Here's what the Bradley will bring to the fight in UKRAINE.

Ukraine to receive Sea Sparrow. SAM

More on the recent donations of armor.

UPGRADES
MORE

NEW: DOD releases the full list of $3B worth of new equipment it plans to provide to Ukraine to include Bradleys (which @MarkHertling and others have noted as a game-changer, with caveats), MRAPs, Humvees and APCs pic.twitter.com/AFvbvkYNpP

— Paul D. Shinkman (@PDShinkman) January 6, 2023

Soledar is hot.

📽️Ukrainian troops somewhere in Soledar, #Donetsk Oblast.#UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/oiksYyzPz4

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) January 6, 2023

After 7 months of stalemate in that sector Russians managed to progress 2,2 km northwest to the salt mine of Soledar. The geolocated position of a Wagner unit is:

48°41'29.27"N, 38° 4'12.59"E#Soledar #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/WnesbhPBy6

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 6, 2023

Soledar
Newly emerged video from Wargonzo show RuAF have made considerable progress in Soledar and established positions in the salt mine. pic.twitter.com/XPLfgxrKD0

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) January 6, 2023

I think RuAF attacked from the Yakovlivka direction and managed to force the AFU to retreat from the Bakhmutske and eastern Soledar area. pic.twitter.com/PqPiRZhHXE

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) January 6, 2023

(Near) Daily video content:

as much as Rob gets carried away with how well the Ukes have been doing and how idiotic the Russians are..

there are no doubts about the fact that in the last week the Russians have advanced in the Bakhmut, Soledar, and Svatove regions pushing the Uke forces back.

not a good sign before the next wave of major conscriptions and an attack from the North.

New US aid PACKAGE.

74OA said:

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New US aid PACKAGE.

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Interesting ISW observation on Russia's reaction to our aid package. LINK.

Ultimately IMO, the road to peace runs through Crimea. Unless Ukraine can put Crimea at serious risk, Russia will not seriously negotiate and this war has/will culminate. Big picture question - are our aid packages sufficient to enable Ukraine to mount a legit counteroffensive to retake the south and threaten Crimea? If not, what additional weapons are needed and will they be provided? Our redline and hard 'no' on critical weapons (i.e. ATACMS) makes me question our big picture strategy to end the war.

Quote:

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Russian officials and milbloggers largely did not react to the US announcement of more than $3.75 billion in new military assistance to Ukraine, further highlighting that the Kremlin and the Russian information space selectively choose when to portray Western military assistance as an escalation. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on January 6 that the assistance would provide Ukraine with Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, artillery systems, armored personnel carriers, surface-to-air missiles, and ammunition.[1] Russian officials and milbloggers scarcely reacted to the latest announcement of military assistance, even though the Kremlin most recently portrayed the transfer of purely defensive Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine as an escalation.[2]

The lack of Russian reaction to the US announcement of military assistance that Ukrainian forces could use to support counteroffensive operations supports ISW's previous assessment that the Kremlin is more concerned with its information operations and the effect that Western military aid can have on specific Russian military operations in Ukraine than with any particular weapons systems, red lines, or the supposed Russian fears of putative Ukrainian offensive actions against the Russian Federation itself using Western systems.[3] The Kremlin selectively responds to Western military shipments and assistance to Ukraine to support information operations that aim to frame Ukraine as lacking sovereignty and to weaken Western willingness to provide further military assistance by stoking fears of Russian escalation.[4] The Kremlin and the Russian information space will likely seize upon future Western military aid that they believe can support these information operations rather than as a reflection of any actual Kremlin red lines or specific concerns about the potential threat Western weapons systems may pose. ISW has previously noted that these observations are worth considering in the context of the Western discussion of providing Ukraine with Western tanks, long-range attack systems, and other capabilities.

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LMCane said:

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as much as Rob gets carried away with how well the Ukes have been doing and how idiotic the Russians are..

there are no doubts about the fact that in the last week the Russians have advanced in the Bakhmut, Soledar, and Svatove regions pushing the Uke forces back.

not a good sign before the next wave of major conscriptions and an attack from the North.

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Yeah, Rob sobers up the conversation when it comes to the maps. The Account is pretty no-nonsense. He's pro-Ukrainian victory, but he likes to just report. I hope he gets more production value as time goes on.

Soledar, fighting continues as you can hear. Small arms are heard, indicating close-quarters combat. pic.twitter.com/Bw5GLshVWc

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 7, 2023

Rob can be a tough delivery to watch at times. He's got good info that usually makes it worth it.

Another echelon with soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces was transferred to Belarus.@belzhd_live reports that on January 7 at 02:10 (Minsk time), a special echelon with 15 passenger cars passed through Smolensk station in the direction of Belarus.
1/5 pic.twitter.com/Sce8hdXHAG

— Belarusian Hajun project (@MotolkoHelp) January 7, 2023

Video from a Russian channel of tank battle between two Ukrainian and three Russian tanks at a distance of 500 meters. https://t.co/c78vSZ5waf pic.twitter.com/FuFGugtont

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) January 7, 2023

benchmark said:

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74OA said:

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New US aid PACKAGE.

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Interesting ISW observation on Russia's reaction to our aid package. LINK.

Ultimately IMO, the road to peace runs through Crimea. Unless Ukraine can put Crimea at serious risk, Russia will not seriously negotiate and this war has/will culminate. Big picture question - are our aid packages sufficient to enable Ukraine to mount a legit counteroffensive to retake the south and threaten Crimea? If not, what additional weapons are needed and will they be provided? Our redline and hard 'no' on critical weapons (i.e. ATACMS) makes me question our big picture strategy to end the war.

Quote:

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Russian officials and milbloggers largely did not react to the US announcement of more than $3.75 billion in new military assistance to Ukraine, further highlighting that the Kremlin and the Russian information space selectively choose when to portray Western military assistance as an escalation. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on January 6 that the assistance would provide Ukraine with Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, artillery systems, armored personnel carriers, surface-to-air missiles, and ammunition.[1] Russian officials and milbloggers scarcely reacted to the latest announcement of military assistance, even though the Kremlin most recently portrayed the transfer of purely defensive Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine as an escalation.[2]

The lack of Russian reaction to the US announcement of military assistance that Ukrainian forces could use to support counteroffensive operations supports ISW's previous assessment that the Kremlin is more concerned with its information operations and the effect that Western military aid can have on specific Russian military operations in Ukraine than with any particular weapons systems, red lines, or the supposed Russian fears of putative Ukrainian offensive actions against the Russian Federation itself using Western systems.[3] The Kremlin selectively responds to Western military shipments and assistance to Ukraine to support information operations that aim to frame Ukraine as lacking sovereignty and to weaken Western willingness to provide further military assistance by stoking fears of Russian escalation.[4] The Kremlin and the Russian information space will likely seize upon future Western military aid that they believe can support these information operations rather than as a reflection of any actual Kremlin red lines or specific concerns about the potential threat Western weapons systems may pose. ISW has previously noted that these observations are worth considering in the context of the Western discussion of providing Ukraine with Western tanks, long-range attack systems, and other capabilities.

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There's a very good chance that whatever we send over there will end up in Russian hands or in the hands of a pro-Russian Ukrainian puppet government (so pretty much in Russian hands as well). I'm all in favor of never giving the Ukrainians our good stuff.

Based on what?

Explosions in Zaporizhzia. The city is under fire from S-300 missiles. Go inside!

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 7, 2023