As reported in Russia, a new barracks on a military base belonging to the 150th division burned to the ground. Novocherkassk, Rostov region. Damn smokers 🚬 pic.twitter.com/KGiPVupqQy

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 28, 2022

Today's SITREP.

Wow. Curious to see if they push to cut off the "land bridge" to Crimea soon.

(1) Ukrainian warrior hero leaves trench line to try to rescue fallen brother (who he finds dying), and he is then himself shot and killed (WARNING: this video is raw, heartbreaking, and very difficult to watch) : UkraineWarVideoReport (reddit.com)

"Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his friends." John 15:13

That is a tough watch. POV of Ukrainian who inadvertently films his own death while trying to save his comrade. The other one that hit me like this was the drone view of a soldier trying to drag out his wounded buddy when he to gets sniped. What made it worse was it was all set to "Wrong side of Heaven" by Five Finger Death Punch. That song alone always brings tears to my eyes.

Edited to add the second video:

(1) Two Ukrainian soldiers attempt to retreat get hit by Russian fire (music from source) : CombatFootage (reddit.com)

Thanks for your contribution on this thread. We use similar approaches to life limit turbomachinery components (starts and fired hours). Do you know how many effective full charge rounds a gun can fire? Or what order of magnitude?

US cannon tubes/barrels are replaced at 5000 EFCs. I don't know about the M777 but the M198 coul be re-tubed four times before the chassis was condemned for reaching the limit of fatigue life. It seems unlikely that barrels are being replaced regularly by the Russians because nothing seems to be working in their logistics system. The cross section of a Russian BMP gun barrel posted several months ago suggests that Russian quality is really bad even if replacement b barrels are available. Accuracy has to suffer with such poor tolerances.

What weapons Ukraine wants and needs versus what Biden is willing to provide.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/29/himars-patriot-russia-ukraine-biden-00075708

shiftyandquick said:

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What weapons Ukraine wants and needs versus what Biden is willing to provide.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/29/himars-patriot-russia-ukraine-biden-00075708

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Wouldn't high end tanks just get knocked out by artillery just as easily as a t-72?

They have more defense systems and better armor, so not as easy but still vulnerable. Aircraft and long range weapon systems are of higher needs then tanks. Not saying they can't use more tanks, especially on the eastern front, but Ukraine needs a way to attack Russia behind their front lines.

Per several updates on LiveUaMap, another large missile attack took place in the past 6-10 hours as I post this. Kyiv, Lviv, and the Western part of Ukraine in general were targeted, along with Odesa. There are reports of electrical infrastructure damage. Also notable is that there is debris from an S-300 missile that landed in the Brest region of Belarus. This was almost certainly an air defense missile just like the one that went off course and landed in Poland.

I doubt it's enough to bring Belarus into the war unless that stupid idea was already in motion, but I am surprised to see more attacks on Western Ukraine after the close call with Poland.

P.U.T.U said:

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They have more defense systems and better armor, so not as easy but still vulnerable. Aircraft and long range weapon systems are of higher needs then tanks. Not saying they can't use more tanks, especially on the eastern front, but Ukraine needs a way to attack Russia behind their front lines.

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Additionally, crew survival is far superior in high end/modern tanks. Getting tanks is the easy part, getting a trained and effective crew is the hard part...

What if Ukraine were to mount a counter-offensive into Russia, some place where there is no current front. I know it would be crazy for geopoliticial reasons, but would it be tactically useful?

Air defense Titans are holding the Ukrainian sky strong.

So far this morning, Russia has launched about 120 missiles targeted at civilian objects all over Ukraine.

🎥https://t.co/bk58mPpseY pic.twitter.com/zyBZFGQR7T

— Ukraine Territorial Defense Forces (@TDF_UA) December 29, 2022

shiftyandquick said:

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What if Ukraine were to mount a counter-offensive into Russia, some place where there is no current front. I know it would be crazy for geopoliticial reasons, but would it be tactically useful?

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Highly unlikely to be helpful at all, and very risky of giving Russia the justification they would like for using WMDs.

shiftyandquick said:

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What if Ukraine were to mount a counter-offensive into Russia, some place where there is no current front. I know it would be crazy for geopoliticial reasons, but would it be tactically useful?

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This would be insane. Not only are there few targets that couldn't be hit with missiles or drones, the expenditure for essentially no long term gain would be high. It would also have massive consequences in Germany and France and as mentioned could lead to use of nuclear weapons. It is beyond foolhardy and not something that could/would/should be executed.

USA*** said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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They have more defense systems and better armor, so not as easy but still vulnerable. Aircraft and long range weapon systems are of higher needs then tanks. Not saying they can't use more tanks, especially on the eastern front, but Ukraine needs a way to attack Russia behind their front lines.

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Additionally, crew survival is far superior in high end/modern tanks. Getting tanks is the easy part, getting a trained and effective crew is the hard part...

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Also the Abrams uses a turbine engine that is more complicated than diesels and requires different tools to work on. Thing is fast but it sure does burn some fuel

I know this is off topic, but [Then don't post it on this thread. -Staff]

NM. Duplicate post.

P.U.T.U said:

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USA*** said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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They have more defense systems and better armor, so not as easy but still vulnerable. Aircraft and long range weapon systems are of higher needs then tanks. Not saying they can't use more tanks, especially on the eastern front, but Ukraine needs a way to attack Russia behind their front lines.

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Additionally, crew survival is far superior in high end/modern tanks. Getting tanks is the easy part, getting a trained and effective crew is the hard part...

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Also the Abrams uses a turbine engine that is more complicated than diesels and requires different tools to work on. Thing is fast but it sure does burn some fuel

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Good discussion on Abrams over HERE.

aezmvp said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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What if Ukraine were to mount a counter-offensive into Russia, some place where there is no current front. I know it would be crazy for geopoliticial reasons, but would it be tactically useful?

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This would be insane. Not only are there few targets that couldn't be hit with missiles or drones, the expenditure for essentially no long term gain would be high. It would also have massive consequences in Germany and France and as mentioned could lead to use of nuclear weapons. It is beyond foolhardy and not something that could/would/should be executed.

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I don't think it's insane. There are legitimate military targets in Belgorod.

But it's difficult to predict Russia's response. Would it trigger a nuclear response against Ukraine, a significant expansion of the war into NATO countries, a coup against Putin, or a full mobilization of 10 million Russian troops?

Better to hit with drones and missiles than to **** around and find out the answers to the above questions.

The Ukrainians need to be focusing south, cutting the land bridge and then possibly rolling up the Russians as they retreat into Crimea. This is where there is the prospect of something that looks like victory, and which might open up the possibility of a negotiated settlement.

Scoop: Biden admin is discussing sending Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine, sources tell me and @AlbertoNardelli. “Bradleys would provide a major increase in ground combat capability because it is, in effect, a light tank,” one analyst says.https://t.co/nYg4pRBPPR pic.twitter.com/DAmqxKmMhM

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) December 29, 2022

twk said:

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The Ukrainians need to be focusing south, cutting the land bridge and then possibly rolling up the Russians as they retreat into Crimea. This is where there is the prospect of something that looks like victory, and which might open up the possibility of a negotiated settlement.

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Absolutely. Ukraine needs to regain its south for safe access to the sea, to protect Odessa and to reestablish secure strategic depth in its interior. Ukraine has proven it can live without Crimea and the breakaway republics in the east if it's forced to, but it needs a secure coast and the 20% of its agricultural heartland in the south, and it must push Russia out of the south so it cannot continue to directly threaten the center of Ukraine.

lb3 said:

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aezmvp said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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What if Ukraine were to mount a counter-offensive into Russia, some place where there is no current front. I know it would be crazy for geopoliticial reasons, but would it be tactically useful?

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This would be insane. Not only are there few targets that couldn't be hit with missiles or drones, the expenditure for essentially no long term gain would be high. It would also have massive consequences in Germany and France and as mentioned could lead to use of nuclear weapons. It is beyond foolhardy and not something that could/would/should be executed.

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I don't think it's insane. There are legitimate military targets in Belgorod.

But it's difficult to predict Russia's response. Would it trigger a nuclear response against Ukraine, a significant expansion of the war into NATO countries, a coup against Putin, or a full mobilization of 10 million Russian troops?

Better to hit with drones and missiles than to **** around and find out the answers to the above questions.

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I have serious doubts that any would merit anything higher than artillery/drone/missile/SOF attacks. Mounting an actual counter invasion into Russia for anything short of ending the war would be nuts IMO. The political risks alone in Europe far outweigh the gains.

Russian "Dva Majora" channel claims Ukraine received a new anti-drone wunderwaffe to Ukraine capable of effectively combating Russian artillery adjustment drones.https://t.co/npNQyFrVhr pic.twitter.com/EnqWLDq9Rt

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) December 29, 2022

Take with a grain of salt.

Drones have become a game changer since they are so versatile. Hope the USA has plans to increase production and also anti-drone hardware. You will not be able to add anti-drone armor to all vehicles or equipment in general so being able to knock them down is huge.

Someone on the tank thread mentioned the Abrams next upgrade will be top armor in an attempt to counter drones. Makes sense to me.

Most people probably had the thought of robot wars being fought with ground based robots. Turns out the next step was drones for surveillance and dropping munitions. The first person to successfully mount a machine gun without the drone losing control will be rich. In the east they are having trench style warfare and dropping munitions is effective but is only taking out a handful of soldiers at a time.

Today's SITREP.

Up until 18:13, there's some pretty entertaining Russian State TV and a phone call between a Russian soldier and his wife. I'll leave that for people to watch.

At 18:13, Rob discusses the Kreminna situation and how Ukraine is putting enormous pressure on the Russians holding the city. Recent rumors were that Ukraine liberated it, but those were not entirely true. However, Russia is getting pushed hard.

At 18:53, Rob mentions that Russia is shelling the town of Tavil'Zhanka, to the NE of Kupyansk. This would indicate that the Russians are retreating, or that the Ukrainians are in the town.

At 20:44, he discusses Bakhmut. The area is a ****show as usual. Russians are working in squad-sized elements instead of platoon-sized elements now. Russia claims to have taken Bakhmutske, but there's no proof as of yet. Bakhmut is just a massive source of losses and pain for Russia in general.

Good report on the planning and execution of the Kharkiv offensive earlier this fall.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWJpZCI6IjQ3NTY3MDU2IiwicmVhc29uIjoiZ2lmdCIsIm5iZiI6MTY3MjMyMTg3MCwiaXNzIjoic3Vic2NyaXB0aW9ucyIsImV4cCI6MTY3MzUzMTQ3MCwiaWF0IjoxNjcyMzIxODcwLCJqdGkiOiI4Yjg0ZGU2Ni1iN2U2LTQxMDEtOWFmYi0yODQ5NzdlZjUyMWEiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy53YXNoaW5ndG9ucG9zdC5jb20vd29ybGQvMjAyMi8xMi8yOS91a3JhaW5lLW9mZmVuc2l2ZS1raGFya2l2LWtoZXJzb24tZG9uZXRzay8ifQ.XH-CSbihoTn11j5FzjSCkh0lvlh8RKwNr1UHjgxhp94

Long, but a good read.

Interesting. That's right at the NE corner or Crimea/NW corner of the Sea of Azov. It is a port city, though I don't think very large.

Quote:

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Explosions in Henichesk last night were audible in 20kms from the town

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/30-december-explosions-in-henichesk-last-night-were-audible

>:( https://t.co/SKoGPHxEoj

— North Atlantic Fella Organization (@Official_NAFO) December 30, 2022

Those *******s!

The #APU put a lot of effort into attacking the railroads in #Svatove last night with artillery. Several locals near there report having the windows blown out of their homes. It is likely RUS was delivery reinforcements to the region from the east.#OSINT#UkraineWar pic.twitter.com/1uBvil4683

— OSINT (Uri) (@UKikaski) December 30, 2022

Def Mon update dump on the East:

Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks around Kam'yanka, Vesele, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka and Mar'inka. RuAF are constantly pushing for the encirclement of Avdiivka without success. pic.twitter.com/qDatQiPpRE

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) December 30, 2022

Wargonzo reports attacks in the direction of Rozdolivka, Vesele and Vyimka. pic.twitter.com/nv1vYNglRq

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) December 30, 2022

I’m biased (it was my vehicle during Desert Storm) but would agree for a variety of reasons…Chain gun, TOWS, speed, easier maintenance, smaller crew, better mileage, available vehicles…. https://t.co/PIel9NyYnr pic.twitter.com/6Z53UnYhlY

— MarkHertling (@MarkHertling) December 30, 2022