***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Jetpilot86
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I don't disagree, but it increasingly appears there's enough fear in the Russian DNA that this is more than a land grab to them. It's lends some perspective into how this could make sense for them, because it sure doesn't make sense with most of what I've seen here.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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B-1 83
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Waffledynamics said:


I suspect we'll have some American (can I say that?) "mercenaries" to assist inside Ukraine.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
TheVarian
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You mean contractors/volunteers
Waffledynamics
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MouthBQ98
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Unsurprising. Russia is using anything that rolls for logistics right now due to starting the war with inadequate non-railroad transport and having lost a good portion of what they did have.
74OA
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Small eastern European countries continue to disproportionately step up to assist Ukraine.

POWER
Waffledynamics
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Take with a grain of salt.

Quote:

Reports of Liga(Wagner) mercenaries being deployed near Krupeyki village in Belarus to stage a provocation on the border


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/21-december-reports-of-ligawagner-mercenaries-being-deployed
trip
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very clear Russia wants to widen the front.

Taking land to the neck of Crimea will need to happen quickly to shrink the front if Ukraine has men and material to do it now.
txags92
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Waffledynamics said:

Take with a grain of salt.

Quote:

Reports of Liga(Wagner) mercenaries being deployed near Krupeyki village in Belarus to stage a provocation on the border


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/21-december-reports-of-ligawagner-mercenaries-being-deployed
Wagner is probably there to "backstop" any units that don't want to follow the order to invade Ukraine when it comes.
Rossticus
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Jetpilot86 said:

I don't disagree, but it increasingly appears there's enough fear in the Russian DNA that this is more than a land grab to them. It's lends some perspective into how this could make sense for them, because it sure doesn't make sense with most of what I've seen here.


The fear is their deteriorating demographics and the competition Ukraine was beginning to pose to them as a preferable European aligned trading partner. There's a reason that Russia has dismantled and stripped all industrial and agricultural capability from occupied Ukraine and transported it back into Russia. There's an equal element of eliminating Ukraine as competition as there is absorbing their resource base for their own use.
AgLA06
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txags92 said:

Waffledynamics said:

Take with a grain of salt.

Quote:

Reports of Liga(Wagner) mercenaries being deployed near Krupeyki village in Belarus to stage a provocation on the border




https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/21-december-reports-of-ligawagner-mercenaries-being-deployed
Wagner is probably there to "backstop" any units that don't want to follow the order to invade Ukraine when it comes.


Supposedly Belarus military leadership wants none of Ukraine. If Russia pushes too hard, thry might get military action from Belarus. Just not what they were expecting.
LMCane
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aezmvp said:

Blackbeard94 said:

I already have a dog said:

JFABNRGR said:

He is the right man for the right job at the right time. A true lead from the front commander. I feel sorry for those who dont like or respect him.


Very much like Churchill in that he is a flawed man who most would probably find distasteful in "normal" times. Absolutely the right person for this moment though.


I think that the comparison is very fair. I have often thought of Churchill when reading stories about Zelensky and his leadership in this war. I have no idea what is distasteful about either man.

I think the opposite comparison of Putin to Hitler is also fair. Never goes to the front, probably drugged up paranoid hypochondriac.
Look to be fair Churchill was an incredibly difficult man to deal with on a personal level. This led to huge problems for the man throughout his life that he was only able to overcome through staggering genius and perseverance. I'm certain that Zelensky has all kinds of issues. But as a leader of a country under dire assault, against massive odds, needing to be an effective communicator, work across many countries to solicit support from your populace, other populaces, politicians across many different ideological ranges, industries including energy, transportation, defense, technology, agriculture, etc... well he seems to be doing as good of a job as anyone you could imagine on the world stge. The Ukraine is either incredibly lucky or incredibly unlucky to have him at this time. He has rallied that country and he is unlike anything we've seen in some time, at least since the 80s when the West popped up Raegan, Thatcher, and JPII all at the same time.

That doesn't mean that everything in Ukraine is roses or pure and clean, just right guy right time.
I don't see where the "well Zelensky is also problematic" comes from-

I have yet to see where there is serious corruption directed specifically at him- or that he has personality issues.

would like some more elaboration on this point
74OA
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Rossticus said:

Jetpilot86 said:

I don't disagree, but it increasingly appears there's enough fear in the Russian DNA that this is more than a land grab to them. It's lends some perspective into how this could make sense for them, because it sure doesn't make sense with most of what I've seen here.


The fear is their deteriorating demographics and the competition Ukraine was beginning to pose to them as a preferable European aligned trading partner. There's a reason that Russia has dismantled and stripped all industrial and agricultural capability from occupied Ukraine and transported it back into Russia. There's an equal element of eliminating Ukraine as competition as there is absorbing their resource base for their own use.
Moscow's fear is also tied to the looming loss of what it sees as the traditional heartland of the "Russian World".

Already threatened by the fall of the USSR, retaining the subservience of its ancient Ukrainian and Belarussian fiefdoms is viewed as essential to Russia's sense of self as the center of that world. If Moscow loses Ukraine to the west, it believes unhappy Belarus will be the next to fall and then the enemy (i.e., western values) will be well and truly beating on the proverbial city gates.

Ukraine's rejection of Russia is as much a psychological impasse for Moscow as it is a resources grab or security issue.
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
74OA
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74OA
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"While continuing to ask for help with weapons and financial assistance, Zelenskyy reminded lawmakers that he has never asked for U.S. troops on the ground, which American leaders have long resisted.

"I believe in us and our alliance. Ukraine never asked the American soldiers to fight on our land instead of us. I assure you that Ukrainian soldiers can perfectly operate American tanks and planes themselves," he said to some laughs and applause.

"Your money is not charity. It's an investment in the global security and democracy that we handle in the most responsible way," he said, also to applause and cheers."

For roughly 5.6% of the annual DOD budget Ukraine is gutting our long-standing enemy for us and without risking a single US soldier. It's a bargain so we can concentrate our resources on deterring China. Xi must be furious with Putin.

TRUTH
Waffledynamics
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Smeghead4761
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twk said:

Jetpilot86 said:

twk said:

74OA said:

Interesting article on the transformational effect of technology on the Ukrainian battlefield.

ALGORITHMIC WARFARE
That's a good read, and it illustrates why Russia's only real hope for victory is to play for time, and hope that the West loses interest. So long as the Ukrainians are able to fight an asymetric war, where they are using technology to beat the Russians, there is little prospect for a Russian victory as they just don't have the resources to overwhelm Ukraine's technological advantage. Now, getting the Russians out of eastern Ukraine would be very hard work, even with a tech advantage, but a Ukrainian victory in Crimea seems to be something that is within reach, and that might actually force the Russian's to negotiate on terms that would be acceptable.
Also according to Zeihlan, the Rus are only about 20% to their minimum pain threshold to consider negotiations, or 400k more need to go before they get there. The feel I'm getting from his most recent long form videos is that even if Putin goes, institutional Russian Paranoia will want to try to secure the last invasion routes to the heart of Russia. They may get beaten back, but I'm not sure they ever quit....
There will be a segment of Russian leadership that will always want to reestablish dominance over Eastern Europe, but a sound beating in Ukraine might convince them that this would best be done by soft power rather than through brute force. Unfortunately for them, Russia has squandered that opportunity for the foreseeable future, so the best they can do towards that long term objective is to cut their losses on the special operation, and re-arm while rebuilding their economy. Do they have the intelligence and long range perspective to see that? Not likely for Putin and his cronies, but there might be some connected folks who do see it.
Putin has stated publicly, on multiple occasions, that he regards the dissolution of the USSR as as a historic tragedy, a wrong that must be righted. I rather suspect that he would truly like to re-establish many of the boundaries of the old Russian empire, which included Finland and a large portion of modern Poland (the rest of what is now Poland was controlled by Germany, which I rather doubt anyone in Russia wants.)

And don't forget that modern Russia, Belorus, and Ukrainian all claim to descend from the Kyivan Rus state, which, as the name says, centered on Kyiv. So to their way of thinking, it is attempting to reclaim part of their ancestral homeland.
CondensedFogAggie
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Full speech by Zelensky as he is being cheered on and given many, many standing ovations by either side of the aisle.



Full transcript, apologies for the long post.
Quote:

"
Thank you so much. Thank you so much for that. Thank you. It's too much for me. All this for our great people. Thank you so much.

Dear Americans, in all states, cities and communities, all those who value freedom and justice, who cherish it as strongly as we Ukrainians in our cities, in each and every family, I hope my words of respect and gratitude resonate in each American heart.

Madam Vice President, I thank you for your efforts in helping Ukraine. Madam Speaker, you bravely visited Ukraine during the full-fledged war. Thank you very much. Great honor. Thank you.

I am very privileged to be here. Dear members of the Congress, representatives of both parties who also visited Kyiv, esteemed congressmen and senators from both parties who will visit Ukraine, I am sure, in the future; dear representatives of diaspora, present in this chamber, and spread across the country; dear journalists, it's a great honor for me to be at the U.S. Congress and speak to you and all Americans.

Against all odds and doom-and-gloom scenarios, Ukraine didn't fall. Ukraine is alive and kicking. Thank you. And it gives me good reason to share with you our first, first joint victory: We defeated Russia in the battle for minds of the world. We have no fear, nor should anyone in the world have it. Ukrainians gained this victory, and it gives us courage which inspires the entire world.

Americans gained this victory, and that's why you have succeeded in uniting the global community to protect freedom and international law. Europeans gained this victory, and that's why Europe is now stronger and more independent than ever. The Russian tyranny has lost control over us. And it will never influence our minds again.

Yet, we have to do whatever it takes to ensure that countries of the Global South also gain such victory. I know one more, I think very important, thing: The Russians will stand a chance to be free only when they defeat the Kremlin in their minds. Yet, the battle continues, and we have to defeat the Kremlin on the battlefield, yes.

This battle is not only for the territory, for this or another part of Europe. The battle is not only for life, freedom and security of Ukrainians or any other nation which Russia attempts to conquer. This struggle will define in what world our children and grandchildren will live, and then their children and grandchildren.

It will define whether it will be a democracy of Ukrainians and for Americans for all. This battle cannot be frozen or postponed. It cannot be ignored, hoping that the ocean or something else will provide a protection. From the United States to China, from Europe to Latin America, and from Africa to Australia, the world is too interconnected and interdependent to allow someone to stay aside and at the same time to feel safe when such a battle continues.

Our two nations are allies in this battle. And next year will be a turning point, I know it, the point when Ukrainian courage and American resolve must guarantee the future of our common freedom, the freedom of people who stand for their values.

Ladies and gentlemen ladies and gentlemen, Americans, yesterday before coming here to Washington, D.C., I was at the front line in our Bakhmut. In our stronghold in the east of Ukraine, in the Donbas. The Russian military and mercenaries have been taking Bakhmut nonstop since May. They have been taking it day and night, but Bakhmut stands.

Last year last year, 70,000 people lived here in Bakhmut, in this city, and now only few civilians stay. Every inch of that land is soaked in blood; roaring guns sound every hour. Trenches in the Donbas change hands several times a day in fierce combat, and even hand fighting. But the Ukrainian Donbas stands.
Russians Russians use everything, everything they have against Bakhmut and other our beautiful cities. The occupiers have a significant advantage in artillery. They have an advantage in ammunition. They have much more missiles and planes than we ever had. It's true, but our defense forces stand. And and we all are proud of them.

The Russians' tactic is primitive. They burn down and destroy everything they see. They sent thugs to the front lines. They sent convicts to the war. They threw everything against us, similar to the other tyranny, which is in the Battle of the Bulge. Threw everything it had against the free world, just like the brave American soldiers which held their lines and fought back Hitler's forces during the Christmas of 1944. Brave Ukrainian soldiers are doing the same to Putin's forces this Christmas.

Ukraine Ukraine holds its lines and will never surrender. So, so, here the front line, the tyranny which has no lack of cruelty against the lives of free people and your support is crucial, not just to stand in such fight but to get to the turning point to win on the battlefield.

We have artillery, yes. Thank you. We have it. Is it enough? Honestly, not really. To ensure Bakhmut is not just a stronghold that holds back the Russian Army, but for the Russian Army to completely pull out, more cannons and shells are needed. If so, just like the Battle of Saratoga, the fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and for freedom.

If your Patriots stop the Russian terror against our cities, it will let Ukrainian patriots work to the full to defend our freedom. When Russia when Russia cannot reach our cities by its artillery, it tries to destroy them with missile attacks. More than that, Russia found an ally in this in this genocidal policy: Iran. Iranian deadly drones sent to Russia in hundreds in hundreds became a threat to our critical infrastructure. That is how one terrorist has found the other.

It is just a matter of time when they will strike against your other allies if we do not stop them now. We must do it. I believe there should be no taboos between us in our alliance. Ukraine never asked the American soldiers to fight on our land instead of us. I assure you that Ukrainian soldiers can perfectly operate American tanks and planes themselves.

Financial assistance is also critically important, and I would like to thank you, thank you very much, thank you for both financial packages you have already provided us with and the ones you may be willing to decide on. Your money is not charity. It's an investment in the global security and democracy that we handle in the most responsible way.

Russia, Russia could stop its aggression, really, if it wanted to, but you can speed up our victory. I know it. And it, it will prove to any potential aggressor that no one can succeed in breaking national borders, no one committing atrocities and reigning over people against their will. It would be nave to wait for steps towards peace from Russia, which enjoys being a terrorist state. Russians are still poisoned by the Kremlin.

The restoration of international legal order is our joint task. We need peace, yes. Ukraine has already offered proposals, which I just discussed with President Biden, our peace formula, 10 points which should and must be implemented for our joint security, guaranteed for decades ahead and the summit which can be held.

I'm glad to say that President Biden supported our peace initiative today. Each of you, ladies and gentlemen, can assist in the implementation to ensure that America's leadership remains solid, bicameral and bipartisan. Thank you.

You can strengthen sanctions to make Russia feel how ruinous its aggression truly is. It is in your power, really, to help us bring to justice everyone who started this unprovoked and criminal war. Let's do it. Let terrorist let the terrorist state be held responsible for its terror and aggression and compensate all losses done by this war. Let the world see that the United States are here.

Ladies and gentlemen ladies and gentlemen, Americans, in two days we will celebrate Christmas. Maybe candlelit. Not because it's more romantic, no, but because there will not be, there will be no electricity. Millions won't have neither heating nor running water. All of these will be the result of Russian missile and drone attacks on our energy infrastructure.

But we do not complain. We do not judge and compare whose life is easier. Your(American) well-being is the product of your national security; the result of your struggle for independence and your many victories. We, Ukrainians, will also go through our war of independence and freedom with dignity and success.

We'll celebrate Christmas. Celebrate Christmas and, even if there is no electricity, the light of our faith in ourselves will not be put out. If Russian if Russian missiles attack us, we'll do our best to protect ourselves. If they attack us with Iranian drones and our people will have to go to bomb shelters on Christmas Eve, Ukrainians will still sit down at the holiday table and cheer up each other. And we don't, don't have to know everyone's wish, as we know that all of us, millions of Ukrainians, wish the same: Victory. Only victory.

We already built strong Ukraine, with strong people, strong army, strong institutions together with you. We developed strong security guarantees for our country and for entire Europe and the world, together with you. And also together with you, we'll put in place everyone who will defy freedom. Put-in.

This will be the basis to protect democracy in Europe and the world over. Now, on this special Christmas time, I want to thank you, all of you. I thank every American family which cherishes the warmth of its home and wishes the same warmth to other people. I thank President Biden and both parties, at the Senate and the House, for your invaluable assistance. I thank your cities and your citizens who supported Ukraine this year, who hosted our Ukrainians, our people, who waved our national flags, who acted to help us. Thank you all, from everyone who is now at the front line, from everyone who is awaiting victory.

Standing here today, I recall the wars of the president Franklin Delano Roosevelt, which are I think so good for this moment. The American people, in their righteous might, will win through to absolute victory. The Ukrainian people will win, too, absolutely.

I know that everything depends on us, on Ukrainian armed forces, yet so much depends on the world. So much in the world depends on you. When I was in Bakhmut yesterday, our heroes gave me the flag, the battle flag, the flag of those who defend Ukraine, Europe and the world at the cost of their lives. They asked me to bring this flag to you, to the U.S. Congress, to members of the House of Representatives and senators whose decisions can save millions of people.

So, let these decisions be taken. Let this flag stay with you, ladies and gentlemen. This flag is a symbol of our victory in this war. We stand, we fight and we will win because we are united Ukraine, America and the entire free world.

Just one thing, if I can, the last thing. Thank you so much, may God protect our brave troops and citizens, may God forever bless the United States of America. Merry Christmas and a happy, victorious New Year. Slava Ukraini. [Glory to Ukraine.]



74OA
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...........and here's a summary of Zelensky's visit. SUMMIT
74OA
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Russia's military reorganizing and creating new units to face reality. EXPANSION
LMCane
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A fire broke out onboard Russia's sole aircraft carrier on Thursday, Russian state media reported.

The Admiral Kuznetsov, a flagship of the Russian Navy, suffered a "minor" fire while undergoing repair work at a shipyard in the Arctic port of Murmansk, according to reports by the Russian state Tass and RIA Novosti news agencies.

Both cited Aleksey Rakhmanov, head of the state-owned United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) which is overseeing a major refit of the carrier, as saying that the blaze was quickly extinguished and caused no casualties.

Delays and accidents have marred the Admiral Kuznetsov's ongoing overhaul, which began in 2017 and was initially set to conclude last year.
CondensedFogAggie
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LMCane said:

A fire broke out onboard Russia's sole aircraft carrier on Thursday, Russian state media reported.

The Admiral Kuznetsov, a flagship of the Russian Navy, suffered a "minor" fire while undergoing repair work at a shipyard in the Arctic port of Murmansk, according to reports by the Russian state Tass and RIA Novosti news agencies.

Both cited Aleksey Rakhmanov, head of the state-owned United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) which is overseeing a major refit of the carrier, as saying that the blaze was quickly extinguished and caused no casualties.

Delays and accidents have marred the Admiral Kuznetsov's ongoing overhaul, which began in 2017 and was initially set to conclude last year.
GAC06
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Tough to make fun of them for that when we had Bonhomme Richard burn to a total loss fairly recently
74OA
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GAC06 said:

Tough to make fun of them for that when we had Bonhomme Richard burn to a total loss fairly recently
Hardly. The Russians can't even burn a ship properly. We melted the BR down to its hull on our first try.

AGAIN
74OA
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Thugs arming thugs. WAGNER
74OA
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Nice compendium of recent Ukraine-related events.
BRIEF
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Waffledynamics
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SamjamAg
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Does Wagner get all the protections of regular Russian soldiers under the Geneva Convention?
Waffledynamics
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No. They're also technically illegal in Russia.
74OA
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sclaff
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74OA said:

"While continuing to ask for help with weapons and financial assistance, Zelenskyy reminded lawmakers that he has never asked for U.S. troops on the ground, which American leaders have long resisted.

"I believe in us and our alliance. Ukraine never asked the American soldiers to fight on our land instead of us. I assure you that Ukrainian soldiers can perfectly operate American tanks and planes themselves," he said to some laughs and applause.

"Your money is not charity. It's an investment in the global security and democracy that we handle in the most responsible way," he said, also to applause and cheers."

For roughly 5.6% of the annual DOD budget Ukraine is gutting our long-standing enemy for us and without risking a single US soldier. It's a bargain so we can concentrate our resources on deterring China. Xi must be furious with Putin.

TRUTH
well said
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