Waffledynamics said:

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AgLA06 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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The Livemap is showing Russian attacks slowly creeping towards the area of Belarus. While Ukraine is focusing on the east and south I wonder if they have enough troops to stop a northern attack since there have been reports of 20k+ troops and hundreds of pieces of equipment in the area

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Why do you only seem to wonder about things that could be negative for Ukraine?

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I don't think he does that, and also it's a good question. I don't know that we know much about the preparedness of the Northern front, and I'll bet that is on purpose.

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His posting history says otherwise.

Just the last 3 pages his only posts have been

• Ukraine will really struggle in the East because imported forces from Africa and Russia has shelled away all the cover. Winter will be brutal for Ukraine.
• Ukraine couldn't have shot down the Iranian drones because they couldn't improve that much. (which they were already shooting down over 75% so that doesn't even make sense.)
• Everyone is wrong, the Iranian drones can perform well in cold weather. Only to be told his pro-Russian information on their engine wasn't correct.

A pattern.

Russia still exploiting holes in the sanctions regime. The US should be more aggressive dealing with its own cheaters.

DRONES

cslifer said:

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I think it is important that all view points and questions be brought up, this thread hopefully remains different than the rest of F16 in that we can actually discuss things.
So far as the drones go, there are starting to be reports from reputable news sources that Russia may have made some improvements/modifications for cold weather operations. It is definitely possible. I think it is important to remember that while the Russian military does alot of idiotic stuff, Russia as a whole is not full of idiots. It is important that we do not underestimate them.

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Sure. I'm all for that. However, that's not what's happening in this case.

Not a bad little report from the Belarusian front. FORTIFICATIONS

A Ukrainian fighter pilot's account of the changing air war. SURVIVING

Reports of a Ukrainian strike within Russian controlled Irmino, Luhansk region, Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/FmIvSoq9Ew

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) December 15, 2022

So what is happening? Call me out for thinking worst case scenario since that is what all war planners do. The war for Ukraine is not sunshine and rainbows as the media is leading, it is still very much David vs Goliath (by the way read Malcom Gladwell's version of it and it is very relevant to this war, was David truly the underdog?)

I would love to sit down with people on here and discuss the geopolitical aspects of this war and I can't share everything over a post, these threads are like MSM where people can pick and choose talking points. If I typed out everything I thought I would be here for days and no one would read it.

I had a chance to speak with Jason Amerine in an airport for about 30 minutes once. If you don't know he was the leading officer of ODA 574 that hooked up with some guy named Hamid Karzai and I learned a ton from that (by the way read Eric Blehm's The Only Thing Worth Dying For about what they did). I was young and dumb and thought I knew about the Afghanistan war, man he gave me a history lesson that day. That war was won in the first 6 months but the big brass got involved and literally destroyed 2 teams of Green Berets, dropped bombs right on them.

Belarus throwing thousands of soldiers from the north again is HUGE due to where they are located. Things are not the same as they were February 24th. What will Lithuania and Poland do? What will NATO do? What further sanctions (if any, not optimistic about it since most companies in Belarus and Russia already found loopholes around supply sanctions and I know since several of my customers are part of it).

I try to read what is happening from people currently on the ground. Ryan Hendrickson is a former Green Beret and is over there demining areas so the Uke population can take care of their basic needs like farming. Listen to Vigilance Elite podcast with Mark Turner (retired MARSOC) whose company, including himself, have been on the ground since December that is training the Ukraine troops. NATO is giving them millions in weapons, mainly artillery, but the basic troops and even SOF are short of IFAKs and medical training. That is huge in this war since the golden hour doesn't exist, they have to support the injured for sometimes days and not having basic equipment is the difference between life and death.

I am no expert, but, from what I read, I don't put much stock in Russian manpower winning the war, nor does Putin, given that he has ruled out further conscription. Putin's plan, at the moment, is simply to play for time mostly in hopes that the West will lose interest in funding Ukraine and force a negotiated peace that will allow him to bank his gains. In my view, the movement in Belarus is simply intended to keep Ukraine from deploying more resources in the south, where a breakthrough cutting off the "land bridge" that runs along the Sea of Azov to the Crimea would threaten Russia's entire position in the Crimea (thanks to the Kerch bridge being substantially damaged and no longer usable for bulk supply by rail). Time might also allow him to get Russian manufacturers up to speed on supplying ammunition, and possibly get the Kerch bridge fixed, but those are secondary objectives (to cooling off Western enthusiasm for Ukraine's cause) in my opinion.

How giving guided bomb kits to Ukraine would help.

JDAM

74OA said:

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A Ukrainian fighter pilot's account of the changing air war. SURVIVING

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Great article. Thank you for posting. We have always known the Russians have copied our stuff.


The intake on the SU-35 is a mirror image of the F-14 intake.


The R-37M looks like an AIM-54 Phoenix.



Damn Russians!

#BREAKING US is expanding US-led training for the Ukrainian Armed Forces "to include Joint Maneuver and combined arms operations training, while building upon the specialized equipment training that we're already providing to the Ukrainians," per @PentagonPresSec

— Carla Babb (@CarlaBabbVOA) December 15, 2022

Yes, an never get in your enemies way when he is making a colossal blunder.

Russia was a sick man, but is even mow more weakened. Putin has lost his queen, rooks and bishops.

They will not be able link up with other erstwhile enemies, such as China.

This is a win. Plus it has united and cleared the vision and thinking of the world's democracies.

Trust me, I am pulling hard for the Ukraine, but Putin will be quite willing to fight to the next to last Russkie to save his ass. This is a long way from over.

74OA said:

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How giving guided bomb kits to Ukraine would help.

JDAM

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JDAMs are the kind of weapons that can bring down the Kerch bridge. It would be flying into the teeth of Russian Air defenses but the Ukes already have experience with HARMs so a wild weasel element of the mission is possible.

lb3 said:

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74OA said:

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How giving guided bomb kits to Ukraine would help.

JDAM

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JDAMs are the kind of weapons that can bring down the Kerch bridge. It would be flying into the teeth of Russian Air defenses but the Ukes already have experience with HARMs so a wild weasel element of the mission is possible.

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The old 2000 pounder JDAM would really cause some damage on that bridge …. It's probably coming

Yes they could but that would be quite an undertaking. A semi packed with explosives is the kind of weapon that took down the Kerch bridge. When they get in range, HIMARS can do it too, at least stop traffic

To hit a specific point in a bridge and drop it, they'd need great accuracy. Our jets can provide that. Ukrainian MiG-29 videos firing HARM still have off the shelf handheld GPS strapped to the panel.

GAC06 said:

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Yes they could but that would be quite an undertaking. A semi packed with explosives is the kind of weapon that took down the Kerch bridge. When they get in range, HIMARS can do it too, at least stop traffic

To hit a specific point in a bridge and drop it, they'd need great accuracy. Our jets can provide that. Ukrainian MiG-29 videos firing HARM still have off the shelf handheld GPS strapped to the panel.

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JDAMs home in on precise GPS coordinates like HIMARS. Those target coordinates can be input to the JDAM guidance kit attached to a dumb bomb before it is uploaded. All a MIG/SU then has to do is release the bomb anywhere within glide range of the target coordinates and it will guide itself to impact.

100% agree except for our motivation.

Quote:

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What we care about is putting the finishing moves on a potential threat to US dominance on the global playing field, and prevent one of probably two or three countries who could possibly replace us

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It is more complicated than continuing world dominance. The US government has many different motivations. But... as long as you don't threaten the 1991 boarders, the rest of the world will leave you alone. Anyone who would like to annex land, the world (including US and it's allies) will take a scrutinizing look.

Quote:

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Ukrainian air defense shot down 60 of 76 Russian Kh-101 and Kalibr missiles today

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-december-ukrainian-air-defense-shot-down-60-of-76-russian

lb3 said:

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74OA said:

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How giving guided bomb kits to Ukraine would help.

JDAM

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JDAMs are the kind of weapons that can bring down the Kerch bridge. It would be flying into the teeth of Russian Air defenses but the Ukes already have experience with HARMs so a wild weasel element of the mission is possible.

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Right now, the bridges that are of most interest to the Ukrainians are those in the vicinity of Melitiopol, which form critical links in the Russian supply line to Crimea now that the Kerch bridge is out. Destroy the right bridges in this area, and things would get critical very quickly for the Russians on the left bank of the Dnipro and in Crimea.

twk said:

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lb3 said:

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74OA said:

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How giving guided bomb kits to Ukraine would help.

JDAM

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JDAMs are the kind of weapons that can bring down the Kerch bridge. It would be flying into the teeth of Russian Air defenses but the Ukes already have experience with HARMs so a wild weasel element of the mission is possible.

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Right now, the bridges that are of most interest to the Ukrainians are those in the vicinity of Melitiopol, which form critical links in the Russian supply line to Crimea now that the Kerch bridge is out. Destroy the right bridges in this area, and things would get critical very quickly for the Russians on the left bank of the Dnipro and in Crimea.

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This.

And it's much easier to degrade those air defenses with HIMARS and special forces behind the lines.

Today's SITREP.

Posted 7 hours ago on LiveUAMap:

Quote:

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Putin convened Russian security council, discussed relationship with neighbouring countries

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-december-putin-convened-russian-security-council-discussed

Quote:

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Kremlin confirmed Putin's visit to Lukashenka in Minsk on Monday, discussion of strategic partnership and integration relationship on agenda

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-december-kremlin-confirmed-putins-visit-to-lukashenka

Red Pear Realty said:

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We've already won, and we will continue to win, but not because of the reasons you thought of already.

I'm going to say this as nicely as possible, but I need to be blunt to get the point across, because it's the truth. And please note that when I say "we", I do not mean myself or the posters on this board. I mean the folks running the US govt.

Nobody cares about Ukraine. 95% of Americans couldn't pick out Ukraine on a map even today. There is genocide going on all over the world that we have never and will never do anything about. What we care about is putting the finishing moves on a potential threat to US dominance on the global playing field, and prevent one of probably two or three countries who could possibly replace us from ever having a chance to do so ever again. We want to kill and maim as many Russians as we possibly can, destroy their economy, finish off their already repulsive birth rate, and make sure they aren't ever a threat to us again.

And what did it cost us? Nothing. We got rid of a bunch of toys that are obsolete and were costing us more money to store than to give away.

So from that perspective, we've already won. About 100,000 KIA and more than 200,000 WIA and it didn't cost us a single US soldier. This is a once in a lifetime (or more) chance that won't pop up again. Putin can't withdraw or they'll kill him. And if he keeps going, at this rate, a million Russians will die.

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I still wonder about internal Russian politics coming into play that we don't fully understand. Million of Russian kids may die, but they will all come isolated Siberian villages and ethnic minorities in central Asia. Even fighting a losing war, it allows him to project the illusion of power in Moscow while simultaneously subjugating those outlying areas.

74OA said:

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GAC06 said:

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Yes they could but that would be quite an undertaking. A semi packed with explosives is the kind of weapon that took down the Kerch bridge. When they get in range, HIMARS can do it too, at least stop traffic

To hit a specific point in a bridge and drop it, they'd need great accuracy. Our jets can provide that. Ukrainian MiG-29 videos firing HARM still have off the shelf handheld GPS strapped to the panel.

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JDAMs home in on precise GPS coordinates like HIMARS. Those target coordinates can be input to the JDAM guidance kit attached to a dumb bomb before it is uploaded. All a MIG/SU then has to do is release the bomb anywhere within glide range of the target coordinates and it will guide itself to impact.

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Yeah, dropped lots of JDAM. They work without GPS updates from the jet dropping them but at reduced accuracy. This an interesting development but not a huge leap in capability unless it's going to be used in a way yet to be disclosed

Quote:

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PMC Wagner mercenaries captured Yakovlivka village east to Bakhmut

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-december-pmc-wagner-mercenaries-captured-yakovlivka-village



Flag in the top right corner. Bakhmut included in the bottom left corner for geographical reference.

Wagner forces in #Yakovlivka Donetsk Oblast @GeoConfirmed 48.707143, 38.152520
Source: https://t.co/ziyxG0Sals pic.twitter.com/edvuZO4b9v

— Neonhandrail (@neonhandrail) December 16, 2022

Big balls on this guy. Too bad he missed. Prayers for recovery.

https://funker530.com/video/russian-tank-and-ukrainian-rocketeer-trade-shots-at-same-time/

GAC06 said:

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74OA said:

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GAC06 said:

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Yes they could but that would be quite an undertaking. A semi packed with explosives is the kind of weapon that took down the Kerch bridge. When they get in range, HIMARS can do it too, at least stop traffic

To hit a specific point in a bridge and drop it, they'd need great accuracy. Our jets can provide that. Ukrainian MiG-29 videos firing HARM still have off the shelf handheld GPS strapped to the panel.

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JDAMs home in on precise GPS coordinates like HIMARS. Those target coordinates can be input to the JDAM guidance kit attached to a dumb bomb before it is uploaded. All a MIG/SU then has to do is release the bomb anywhere within glide range of the target coordinates and it will guide itself to impact.

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Yeah, dropped lots of JDAM. They work without GPS updates from the jet dropping them but at reduced accuracy. This an interesting development but not a huge leap in capability unless it's going to be used in a way yet to be disclosed

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Solution is to drop a volley large enough that at least one has a high statistical probability of impacting where you want it. If there's a 25% chance of a JDAM landing within 50' of the target without updates, and that's close enough, then dropping 10 gives you a 95% chance that at least one impacts that close.

The True State of Russian Army

74OA said:

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GAC06 said:

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Yes they could but that would be quite an undertaking. A semi packed with explosives is the kind of weapon that took down the Kerch bridge. When they get in range, HIMARS can do it too, at least stop traffic

To hit a specific point in a bridge and drop it, they'd need great accuracy. Our jets can provide that. Ukrainian MiG-29 videos firing HARM still have off the shelf handheld GPS strapped to the panel.

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JDAMs home in on precise GPS coordinates like HIMARS. Those target coordinates can be input to the JDAM guidance kit attached to a dumb bomb before it is uploaded. All a MIG/SU then has to do is release the bomb anywhere within glide range of the target coordinates and it will guide itself to impact.

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Russia launched a massive new wave of missile strikes across Ukraine, clouding the skies in Kyiv and forcing people underground.

“It’s kinda making you scared,” one person said.

“You get used to it,” another said. @ellisonbarber joins us on the ground with the latest. pic.twitter.com/R5ghI6kQne

— TODAY (@TODAYshow) December 16, 2022

More detail on the potential Patriot transfer. ISSUES

Ukraine using US-supplied scatterable mines. REMOTE