The Shahen 136 are said to use a gas engine so unless someone messed up with the specs they should still work in sub freezing temperatures. I know Turkey has some lithium battery drones that do not work well, if at all, in freezing temepratures.

Gas + altitude + low temps = greater difficulty adjusting fuel air mix and possibly lubrication or fuel feed problems. Small engines become temperamental in very low temps.

Update from Mar'inka, Donetsk Oblast.

"Mar'inka is almost fully (back) under our control. We're (79th and 95th air assault brigades) fighting against repeated small waves of assault groups that are destroyed. Their attacks do not bring results".

Keep steady guys 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/BJ8dXcGExl

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) December 14, 2022

They observe launch points and indicators, probable targets and flight paths and reposition and prepare AA defenses to match. Each attack gets less effective unless the Russians make major adjustments.

Ukraine to get SAMP/T SAM system. Defends aircraft, cruise missiles and TBMs. Range: 120km. Altitude: 25km. Does this preclude the need to send Patriot?

SAMP/T

P.U.T.U said:

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With what? If that is true they got a lot better in a short time shooting those things down

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Explain this statement to me.

They were already shooting down greater than 75% when they were launching attacks with multiples more of the drones at once. Some with small arms even. You really don't think it would be that hard to shoot down 13 in their capital city after another month to prepare?

They're slow, low and vulnerable to small arms. Adding a couple more strategically placed Gepards, additional traditional AA, and Manpads in centrific rings around key cities should all but reduce these things to nuisances. The problem wasn't shooting them down, but not wasting more valuable, expensive, ground to air missiles on these things that are needed for ballistic and cruise threats.

At least 60 more units of Russian military equipment have been transferred to Belarus: Ural trucks, infantry fighting vehicles, fuel trucks.
According to our information, two more echelons with Russian military equipment arrived in Belarus in the past few days.
1/7 pic.twitter.com/lBx9r14t0g

— Belarusian Hajun project (@MotolkoHelp) December 14, 2022

An A-50 aircraft of the Russian Air Force, which provides information to fighter pilots about targets, has arrived in Belarus, says Belarusian military tracking movement Belarusian Hayun.. pic.twitter.com/PhPaQniRXd

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) December 14, 2022

At least 20 tanks are being redeployed to the training ground near Hrodna: The inspection of combat readiness of the Belarusian Armed Forces continues, involving new units and formations:https://t.co/7iCvxemcvt pic.twitter.com/aGzY4j0sRM

— Belarusian Hajun project (@MotolkoHelp) December 14, 2022

Edit: not sure why I replied to P.U.T.U.. It was intended to just be a normal reply.

Damage to Russian-occupied Berdyansk Airport is visible in low-resolution satellite imagery from today. The site was struck last week. pic.twitter.com/kgDLPEnjS2

— Brady Africk (@bradyafr) December 14, 2022

Posted 12/9 but still interesting.

A loud day in Bakhmut today. Evacuations are growing ever more dangerous. Today our team managed to get 10 people out of the city under intense shelling & delivered 2 generators provided to us by @Exen . No end to this madness in sight. pic.twitter.com/Vcfg8N47p1

— Ignatius Ivlev-Yorke (@IvlevYorke) December 9, 2022

Waffledynamics said:

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An A-50 aircraft of the Russian Air Force, which provides information to fighter pilots about targets, has arrived in Belarus, says Belarusian military tracking movement Belarusian Hayun.. pic.twitter.com/PhPaQniRXd

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) December 14, 2022

Edit: not sure why I replied to P.U.T.U.. It was intended to just be a normal reply.

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Looks like an E-3 and C-17 got together and had a baby.

If Belarus was somehow convinced to get into the mix, any idea whether their territory would be fair game for going after things like this?

P.U.T.U said:

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The Shahen 136 are said to use a gas engine so unless someone messed up with the specs they should still work in sub freezing temperatures. I know Turkey has some lithium battery drones that do not work well, if at all, in freezing temepratures.

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These aren't carburetor gas engines, correct? Amazing in a bad way if so

ETA - info I could find is that their engines are a reverse engineered version of the German Limbach L550E 2-stroke engines, so no wonder they're having trouble in the cold. Just in case anybody else was curious.

What's the range of a Patriot missile?

B-1 83 said:

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What's the range of a Patriot missile?

Depends on the variant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot#MIM-104F_(PAC-3)

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How far back do their AWACS planes sit back? Probably more than the 100 miles needed to nail one. :-(

B-1 83 said:

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How far back do their AWACS planes sit back? Probably more than the 100 miles needed to nail one. :-(

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The unclass range for an old E-3A is 200nm....old data, obviously. A "modern" version of an A50 is probably close to the same. So, yes, if employed properly, it would be out of range. That's the advantage of AEW aircraft.

Quick overview of developments on the eastern and southern fronts.

FIGHTING

B-1 83 said:

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How far back do their AWACS planes sit back? Probably more than the 100 miles needed to nail one. :-(

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Is the AWACs going to give the Russian pilots coordinates to enter into their handheld Garmin gps units?

The Fife said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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An A-50 aircraft of the Russian Air Force, which provides information to fighter pilots about targets, has arrived in Belarus, says Belarusian military tracking movement Belarusian Hayun.. pic.twitter.com/PhPaQniRXd

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) December 14, 2022

Edit: not sure why I replied to P.U.T.U.. It was intended to just be a normal reply.

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Looks like an E-3 and C-17 got together and had a baby.

If Belarus was somehow convinced to get into the mix, any idea whether their territory would be fair game for going after things like this?

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I would hope that the CIA and the NATO intel services

have infiltrated enough of Lukashenko's military that they will conduct a coup once their invasion is crushed.

Despite heavy cloud cover, numerous contrails from Russian Aviation can be seen near the #Mariupol region today via @sentinel_hub.

Can clearly tell a majority of Russian sorties these days are launched from bases in Krasnodar Krai and Rostov. pic.twitter.com/amfUr3NaJT

— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) December 14, 2022

txags92 said:

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B-1 83 said:

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How far back do their AWACS planes sit back? Probably more than the 100 miles needed to nail one. :-(

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Is the AWACs going to give the Russian pilots coordinates to enter into their handheld Garmin gps units?

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I figure if they can even radio "Ivan, go up, down, left, right, ……..", they're worth taking out.

GAC06 said:

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SCOOP: U.S. officials have devised plans to send Ukraine JDAM kits, equipment that converts unguided munitions into “smart bombs” that can target Russian military positions with a high degree of accuracy, U.S. officials familiar with the matter say.https://t.co/n5HKdcApw4

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) December 14, 2022

Well that's interesting.

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Need to suppress enemy air defenses, I don't think the Ukes have air supremacy

Dont know if true or not but seen a small uptick in SEAD missions being conducted by the Ukes lately. At least in videos. Could be prep for a more aggressive air campaign soon. Or likely just another easy way to kill some Russians. Or both!

With so many S300 missiles being used in ground attack mode, and the Uke's use of HARM missiles, I would be curious to know how degraded their defenses have become.

JDAM can also be slung a ways if dropped at enough speed and altitude. I'm wondering about integration issues with their Soviet era planes. Without targeting pods it would have to be all pre planned targets.

I have a hard time believing the Ukrainians will really be able to venture too far into Russian territory even as inept as the Russian Air Force has been. Perhaps some larger drones are the intended delivery platform?

Quote:

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Detonations at ammunition depot reported after missile strike in Kadiivka

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-december-detonations-at-ammunition-depot-reported-after

GAC06 said:

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JDAM can also be slung a ways if dropped at enough speed and altitude. I'm wondering about integration issues with their Soviet era planes. Without targeting pods it would have to be all pre planned targets.

I have a hard time believing the Ukrainians will really be able to venture too far into Russian territory even as inept as the Russian Air Force has been. Perhaps some larger drones are the intended delivery platform?

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Need to start letting the Ukraines use our HARM missiles .. put them on the Mig 29 along with 500 lb JADAMS and go to
Town on Russian equipment and troops .. knock out the radar equipment while they are there ..: after a few months with HARMS .. Russia would lose the air war

Ukraine has been using HARMs we've supplied for a while. They don't have targeting pods though and I seriously doubt they could be integrated even if we were willing to supply them. So dropping JDAM would be limited to pre-planned targets or coordinates otherwise derived by someone other than the jet.

I thought this might be tied to the Gray Eagle UAV rumors but now I see that one seems too small to carry 500lb bombs. They could use the JDAMs to attack pre-planned targets near the front line without too much risk but that's worse than the HIMARS they already have.

GAC06 said:

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Ukraine has been using HARMs we've supplied for a while. They don't have targeting pods though and I seriously doubt they could be integrated even if we were willing to supply them. So dropping JDAM would be limited to pre-planned targets or coordinates otherwise derived by someone other than the jet.

I thought this might be tied to the Gray Eagle UAV rumors but now I see that one seems too small to carry 500lb bombs. They could use the JDAMs to attack pre-planned targets near the front line without too much risk but that's worse than the HIMARS they already have.

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Ok .. didn't know they had the HARMS .. probably use JDAMs from as far way as possible to cause serious damage near the front lines .. as you said, replace the expensive HIMARS if they can use a smart JDAM 500 pounder

The Livemap is showing Russian attacks slowly creeping towards the area of Belarus. While Ukraine is focusing on the east and south I wonder if they have enough troops to stop a northern attack since there have been reports of 20k+ troops and hundreds of pieces of equipment in the area

lb3 said:

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With so many S300 missiles being used in ground attack mode, and the Uke's use of HARM missiles, I would be curious to know how degraded their defenses have become.

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supposedly the Russkies have been pulling S300 batteries out of Syria in order to replace losses in Ukraine

Really interesting thread about the importance of Bakhmut for both sides. Tl;dr: it is logistically important for future operations in the Donetsk area for several reasons.

Some have called the Russian efforts to take Bakhmut senseless, but I don't necessarily agree.

Why does Bakhmut matter and why are both Ukraine and Russia willing to throw so many men into the meatgrinder it has become?

As promised: why Bakhmut? A thread.

1/ pic.twitter.com/QhJNSbyZYz

— John Helin (@J_JHelin) December 15, 2022

P.U.T.U said:

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The Livemap is showing Russian attacks slowly creeping towards the area of Belarus. While Ukraine is focusing on the east and south I wonder if they have enough troops to stop a northern attack since there have been reports of 20k+ troops and hundreds of pieces of equipment in the area

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Why do you only seem to wonder about things that could be negative for Ukraine?

AgLA06 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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The Livemap is showing Russian attacks slowly creeping towards the area of Belarus. While Ukraine is focusing on the east and south I wonder if they have enough troops to stop a northern attack since there have been reports of 20k+ troops and hundreds of pieces of equipment in the area

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Why do you only seem to wonder about things that could be negative for Ukraine?

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I don't think he does that, and also it's a good question. I don't know that we know much about the preparedness of the Northern front, and I'll bet that is on purpose.

Morocco is first African nation to aid Ukraine.

T-72s