Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 08 December 2022
— Ministry of Defence π¬π§ (@DefenceHQ) December 8, 2022
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/nm2wfzARU1
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***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 1 hr ago by JFABNRGR
60km of defensive lines on frozen land with a short logistic lines with minimal air support will cost a lot of Uke troops. That would take thousands of HIMARs which they don't have, thousands of drones, and you would need something like an L-shaped ambush to defeat. Not saying Ukraine can't do it but it will be very costly, men and weapon systems
cslifer said:
If you watch the video skips a bit between shots. The length of time you are seeing between launches isn't a technical issue of letting the system stabilize, it is more of a poorly produced propaganda video issue.
It's a video taken in the field by a cell phone and uploaded online. They don't necessarily just fire all rockets one after the other so, yes, if there was a lengthy pause between firings it makes sense to edit out the dead time. This is frequently done with web uploaded cell phone videos of all types from cat videos to football games.
Additionally, whether they come from Russian troops or Ukrainian troops, I wouldn't say that cell phone vids which simply show straightforward military action reach the threshold of propaganda.
Propaganda: "information, especially of a biased or misleading nature, used to promote or publicize a particular political cause or point of view."
There's nothing biased, misleading, or political about the action occurring in this video or how it's presented.
You attack where they are not fortified, and envelop the line from the rear. There will be neglected or weak spots. You pin them down with artillery and attacked through those and then threaten to trap them from behind into defenses oriented in the wrong direction. Easier said than done, but it's what Germany did in France in 1940 against superior forces.
Unless they have equally stout defenses north and south of the line, 60km of trenches may as well just be a Maginot Line with the mobility and ability to envelope orc defenses that the Ukrainians have shown.P.U.T.U said:
60km of defensive lines on frozen land with a short logistic lines with minimal air support will cost a lot of Uke troops. That would take thousands of HIMARs which they don't have, thousands of drones, and you would need something like an L-shaped ambush to defeat. Not saying Ukraine can't do it but it will be very costly, men and weapon systems
Do you have any idea how many soldiers it would take to effectively defend a line 60km long? Fortifications get bypassed and you attack where the enemy isn't.P.U.T.U said:
60km of defensive lines on frozen land with a short logistic lines with minimal air support will cost a lot of Uke troops. That would take thousands of HIMARs which they don't have, thousands of drones, and you would need something like an L-shaped ambush to defeat. Not saying Ukraine can't do it but it will be very costly, men and weapon systems
The Russians are tying up limited assets and valuable men that could be used elsewhere. Ukraine has essentially fixed them in place without firing a shot.
I tend to agree with General Patton...Quote:
Fixed fortifications are monuments to man's stupidity. If mountain ranges and oceans can be overcome, anything made by man can be overcome.
Maximus_Meridius said:I tend to agree with General Patton...Quote:
Fixed fortifications are monuments to man's stupidity. If mountain ranges and oceans can be overcome, anything made by man can be overcome.
What was it? The Maginot Line
That worked out well
A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week.
-George S Patton
-George S Patton
92AG10 said:Do you have any idea how many soldiers it would take to effectively defend a line 60km long? Fortifications get bypassed and you attack where the enemy isn't.P.U.T.U said:
60km of defensive lines on frozen land with a short logistic lines with minimal air support will cost a lot of Uke troops. That would take thousands of HIMARs which they don't have, thousands of drones, and you would need something like an L-shaped ambush to defeat. Not saying Ukraine can't do it but it will be very costly, men and weapon systems
The Russians are tying up limited assets and valuable men that could be used elsewhere. Ukraine has essentially fixed them in place without firing a shot.
Agreed. However the point of fortifications such as this is the exact opposite. Holding 60km without fortifications takes more men than with fortifications. The Russians are trying to hold the line and shift men to weaker points in the line.
At least that's what they are trying to do if competent. At this point the strategy is sound if they are determined to hold the east. Capability is TBD and the pattern so far isn't in their favor.
MouthBQ98 said:
You attack where they are not fortified, and envelop the line from the rear. There will be neglected or weak spots. You pin them down with artillery and attacked through those and then threaten to trap them from behind into defenses oriented in the wrong direction. Easier said than done, but it's what Germany did in France in 1940 against superior forces.
Maybe. Then again it's the Russians. They may be weakest somewhere in the middle if the fortifications. I wouldn't be surprised if they were dumb enough to over rely on under manned fortifications with few reinforcements behind to bolster other parts of the line.
You attack weak points and vulnerabilities. Hammering a small section of a weak fortification and smashing it with a mechanized unit to quickly get in their rear could be an optionas well. Fortifications or not. Their intelligence will determine that.
These are the snow cone fortifications and the septic tank pill boxes?
aTm '99
I've seen footage of trenching machines so they are cutting in some infantry trenches. Won't help much if they aren't armed with anti-tank weapons and don't have a mobile armored reserve to reinforce any penetration
Ever since I've seen the reports of the orcs digging "defense lines" like WWI, I've wondered what, and how, the Ukes would choose to attach those positions.
With modern weaponry, I would have assumed tanks with infantry, but if one had use of aircraft, it sure seems like a good dose of napalm would be quite useful on the orcs in dug in postions..
Am I in the neighborhood?
With modern weaponry, I would have assumed tanks with infantry, but if one had use of aircraft, it sure seems like a good dose of napalm would be quite useful on the orcs in dug in postions..
Am I in the neighborhood?
Hate is how progressives sustain themselves. Without hate, introspection begins to slip into the progressive's consciousness, threatening the progressive with the truth: that their ideas and opinions are illogical, hypocritical, dangerous, and asinine.
This is backed by data.
This is backed by data.
As previously stated, you don't have to/won't attack the entire line, just the weakest point then destroy their rear areas of supply/support and finish the line from behind. The RU will have to abandon large sections of the line once UKR have broken through unless 1. they are built for all around defense 2. they are OK with dying in place. Once their re-supply is cut off, even if they are ready like number 1, number 2 becomes fairly inevitable.
Just looking at the maps, the defense lines are not built in-depth which means the defense is brittle. It seems the RU wants to recreate the 1943 Battle of Kursk where they lured the Germans in and heavily attrited them ,then went on a counter-offensive. The issue here is that 1. the defenses here are not deep enough, 2. the differences in military technology was more balanced in 1943 (especially given RU was in defense positions), 3. the troops facing the Germans in 43 were dedicated, mostly combat experienced, and willing to sacrifice themselves for their invaded, brutalized country, 4. the RU knew almost exactly when, where, and with what the Germans were coming (and the Germans almost pulled it off).
This, to me, is developing more like the Iraqi defensive lines in Desert Storm Part 1, than Kursk Part 2 and IMO, the opposing forces are more like this than like the Russians and Germans at Kursk.
12thFan/Websider Since 2003
Just looking at the maps, the defense lines are not built in-depth which means the defense is brittle. It seems the RU wants to recreate the 1943 Battle of Kursk where they lured the Germans in and heavily attrited them ,then went on a counter-offensive. The issue here is that 1. the defenses here are not deep enough, 2. the differences in military technology was more balanced in 1943 (especially given RU was in defense positions), 3. the troops facing the Germans in 43 were dedicated, mostly combat experienced, and willing to sacrifice themselves for their invaded, brutalized country, 4. the RU knew almost exactly when, where, and with what the Germans were coming (and the Germans almost pulled it off).
This, to me, is developing more like the Iraqi defensive lines in Desert Storm Part 1, than Kursk Part 2 and IMO, the opposing forces are more like this than like the Russians and Germans at Kursk.
12thFan/Websider Since 2003
If these lines are being defended by conscripts, I would assume there will be many soft points.
Once I learned the Brits/Americans had informed Stalin exactly where and when the Germans were going to attack in Kursk, I remember being astonished how close the Germans came to winning that battle.
Quote:
4. the RU knew almost exactly when, where, and with what the Germans were coming (and the Germans almost pulled it off).
Hate is how progressives sustain themselves. Without hate, introspection begins to slip into the progressive's consciousness, threatening the progressive with the truth: that their ideas and opinions are illogical, hypocritical, dangerous, and asinine.
This is backed by data.
This is backed by data.
fasthorse05 said:
Once I learned the Brits/Americans had informed Stalin exactly where and when the Germans were going to attack in Kursk, I remember being astonished how close the Germans came to winning that battle.Quote:
4. the RU knew almost exactly when, where, and with what the Germans were coming (and the Germans almost pulled it off).
Competency in Russian generals was / is seen as a threat. They throw bodies at the problem no different than draftees.
Nice story about Ukraine's network of drone hunters, much of which is manned by volunteers.
NECESSITY
NECESSITY
There is some chatter on reddit that UKR and USA are in discussions to release any remaining viable cluster bomb munitions for the HIMARS. These would likely be extremely effective against a large portion of these fortifications. I cannot find a good article on how many remaining there may be.AgLA06 said:92AG10 said:Do you have any idea how many soldiers it would take to effectively defend a line 60km long? Fortifications get bypassed and you attack where the enemy isn't.P.U.T.U said:
60km of defensive lines on frozen land with a short logistic lines with minimal air support will cost a lot of Uke troops. That would take thousands of HIMARs which they don't have, thousands of drones, and you would need something like an L-shaped ambush to defeat. Not saying Ukraine can't do it but it will be very costly, men and weapon systems
The Russians are tying up limited assets and valuable men that could be used elsewhere. Ukraine has essentially fixed them in place without firing a shot.
Agreed. However the point of fortifications such as this is the exact opposite. Holding 60km without fortifications takes more men than with fortifications. The Russians are trying to hold the line and shift men to weaker points in the line.
At least that's what they are trying to do if competent. At this point the strategy is sound if they are determined to hold the east. Capability is TBD and the pattern so far isn't in their favor.
History of their being taken out of service and Trump's reversal in 2017.
http://www.the-monitor.org/en-gb/reports/2020/united-states/cluster-munition-ban-policy.aspx
Long Range Precision Fires Marine Corp
https://mca-marines.org/wp-content/uploads/0518-Long-Range-Precision-Fires.pdf
Long Range Precision Fires Army.
https://ndiastorage.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/ndia/2016/armament/Turner.pdf
βYou can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.β
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Sneak peek at the 2022 first aid kit for mobilized Russians
Knock off Israeli bandage
Knock off rubber band tourniquet
First aid pamphlet
End of listβ¦
Beat bet would be to strangle yourself to death with the "tourniquet "
Knock off Israeli bandage
Knock off rubber band tourniquet
First aid pamphlet
End of listβ¦
Beat bet would be to strangle yourself to death with the "tourniquet "
A medkit produced this year specifically for the mobilised was discovered on the body of a 200 mobik, and it barely contains anything. pic.twitter.com/4jXGKYM0zh
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) December 8, 2022
GREY ZONE shares a report by Russians from Svatove direction; appears to try and be motivational, yet brings up deaths of mobiks from frostbite and complete chaos in some of their units. https://t.co/FMuugJKuA4 pic.twitter.com/jkBxt7KGSj
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) December 8, 2022
Israeli bandage. Was watching the Aaron Dean trial in Ft. Worth this week. Dean's officer partner was going through what they carried in their duty belt. It included an Israeli bandage and two types of tourniquets.
Interesting how a beat cop in Ft. Worth is better prepared than a Russian soldier.
Interesting how a beat cop in Ft. Worth is better prepared than a Russian soldier.
Kind of funny to see Putin objecting to Time naming Zelensky as their "Person of the Year", not the least of which is that Putin was Time's Person of the Year in 2007 and runner up in 2014 with some pretty amazing puff pieces about how great he was for Russia.
Zelensky and Spirit of Ukraine named Person of the Year
https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2022-volodymyr-zelensky/
Kremlin lashes out at Time over Person of the Year pick
Ukraine live updates: Putin says war is taking longer than expected (usatoday.com)
Putin is 2007 Time Person of the Year in his last year as Russian President (before he invaded Georgia in 2008)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-time-idUSN1956834820071219
Putin is 2014 runner up for Time's Person of the Year (after his annexation of Crimea)
https://time.com/time-person-of-the-year-runner-up-vladimir-putin/
Zelensky and Spirit of Ukraine named Person of the Year
https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2022-volodymyr-zelensky/
Kremlin lashes out at Time over Person of the Year pick
Ukraine live updates: Putin says war is taking longer than expected (usatoday.com)
Putin is 2007 Time Person of the Year in his last year as Russian President (before he invaded Georgia in 2008)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-time-idUSN1956834820071219
Putin is 2014 runner up for Time's Person of the Year (after his annexation of Crimea)
https://time.com/time-person-of-the-year-runner-up-vladimir-putin/
And here I thought they'd been striking civilian areas since way before Kerch. Silly me. Ukraine made them do it. Of course!
Drunk putin explains why strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure will continue because "they started first by attacking the Crimean bridge" pic.twitter.com/fQeRuNo4Pu
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) December 8, 2022
The Crimean Bridge? Does he mean the Kerch Bridge? The same bridge that the orcs built after they invaded and stole Crimea from "the neighboring country"? Is it that bridge?
This guy...
This guy...
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I really like the change that The Account has done by giving a short and sweet update of the recent flashpoints after the intro. I will mark them down here for reading consumption:
Ternova (Kharkiv Oblast):
- Russia tried to storm the village from Belgorod. This assault was a failure.
Svatove (Luhansk Oblast):
- There are reports that the Ukrainian 80th air assault brigade has taken control of Ozherelne, roughly 12 km from Svatove.
Kreminna (Luhansk Oblast):
- Russia conducted a failed assault on Chervonopopivka. Interestingly, this video's map shows that as being in Russia hands, but Defmon's map shows it as contested.
- Ukraine shelled Dibrova heavily.
Bakhmut (Donetsk Oblast):
- More heavy fighting. Any and all Russian gains are done with losses "described as 'massive'".
Avdiivka (Luhanska Oblast):
- Russian forces heavily shelled the area with incendiary munitions after failing to storm the city. Holy crap that video at 1:36. Imagine that raining down on you.
ETA: some corroboration that Ukraine holds some or all of Chervonopopivka from 12/3:
Russian sources: "the AFU advanced in the direction of Zhitlovka north of Kreminna. To the north - the AFU reached Chervonopopivka. Part of the R-66 highway (Kreminna-Svatove) is now in the "grey zone"." pic.twitter.com/yOF1EUrZmc
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) December 3, 2022
Today's SITREP.
Which is worse, that WP they are raining down or old fashioned napalm? Do the ukes have anything similar to the incendiary the orcs are dropping?
I know the usa has wp artillery shells, but I've only seen them go bang in a big explosion, not rain down like fire from the sky like what ru is using.
Does USA or nato have anything similar to what the orcs use ?
I know the usa has wp artillery shells, but I've only seen them go bang in a big explosion, not rain down like fire from the sky like what ru is using.
Does USA or nato have anything similar to what the orcs use ?
Actually, WP is more old fashioned than napalm. The first WP artillery and mortar rounds were employed in the First World War. Napalm wasn't invented until 1942, and not used in combat until 1944.lb sand said:
Which is worse, that WP they are raining down or old fashioned napalm? Do the ukes have anything similar to the incendiary the orcs are dropping?
I know the usa has wp artillery shells, but I've only seen them go bang in a big explosion, not rain down like fire from the sky like what ru is using.
Does USA or nato have anything similar to what the orcs use ?
The U.S. military has WP rounds, for both tube artillery and mortars. However, I believe most, if not all, of the types currently in use were designed as smoke rounds, not incendiaries. Doesn't mean the chunks of burning WP that are making the smoke won't burn the crap out of whatever they land on, though.
Well, it compares favorably to what I was issued in the U.S. Army up until about the mid-2000s, which consisted of a pressure dressing of the type that I don't think had changed since WWII, and that was it.BattleGrackle said:
Sneak peek at the 2022 first aid kit for mobilized Russians
Knock off Israeli bandage
Knock off rubber band tourniquet
First aid pamphlet
End of listβ¦
Now, when I went to Afghanistan in 2009, the IFAK I was issued (actually, two of them) consisted of:
- SOF-T tourniquet
- Israeli bandage
- naso-pharengeal (sp?) airway tube (which I didn't know how to use, but since I was a field grade on a division staff, eh...)
- combat gauze
- crib sheet for a 9-line MEDEVAC request
As a cop, the only thing I carried on my belt was a TQ (SOF-T). I'm too skinny for more than that - not enough space in only 36" of belt. I did have a kit with a second TQ, Izzy bandage, combat gauze regular gauze, and a HALO chest seal in my patrol bag.
Lucky for me, the only time I ever had to use any of it was on game day bike patrol when my partner gashed his calf open on his front sprocket (tried to clip in to the pedals and his foot slipped.)
But, back on topic, the Russkies are about 15 years behind the power curve on troop first aid kits, although what they're issuing is probably the max that they train those troops to use, if they get that much training.
lb sand said:
Which is worse, that WP they are raining down or old fashioned napalm? Do the ukes have anything similar to the incendiary the orcs are dropping?
I know the usa has wp artillery shells, but I've only seen them go bang in a big explosion, not rain down like fire from the sky like what ru is using.
Does USA or nato have anything similar to what the orcs use ?
Yes. In 155mm shells it is the M825 improved smoke projectile. It contains felt wedges impregnated with WP and burns for an extended period of time. I don't know if they have been given to the Ukrainians but they have been sold to the Israelis.
Thanks for the response's guys. Wp felt wedges makes perfect sense now when looking at those videos.
But our m825 rounds are for smoke/concealment. What the orcs are using looks like it's intended to set its victims aflame. Is there a difference?
But our m825 rounds are for smoke/concealment. What the orcs are using looks like it's intended to set its victims aflame. Is there a difference?
Yes. One is designed to use small amounts of WP to make dense white concealment smoke.
The other is designed as an area attack weapon to shower an area with WP to inflict damage and casualties.
The other is designed as an area attack weapon to shower an area with WP to inflict damage and casualties.
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