***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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MouthBQ98
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Russia can supple and grind away in the east.

They are highly vulnerable to supply disruptions and cutoff in the south. Frozen ground allows open field maneuvers to bypass strong points.
If I were Ukraine, I would go for cutting off and isolating the entire southern portion, threatening or even cutting off Crimea. That would throw Russia into political chaos, and a lot of Russian forces might be captured or forced to withdraw. This then shortens the front line immensely if successful.
LMCane
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DCPD158 said:

Eliminatus said:

LMCane said:

Eliminatus said:

JB!98 said:

Eliminatus said:

In a sane military and government, it would force the dispersion of forces to cover the now extremely obvious weaknesses of interior infrastructure. Thereby thinning the force concentration available at the front. It's one of the more critical and successful roles of SF and partisans, tying down larger forces.

Tactically, these strikes are probably mere pin*****s really but strategically these are huge IMO. It will force the Russians to react and getting the enemy to react to your moves is always a benefit. Assuming the Russians actually try to do something that is. Normally it would be a no brainer but ya know…..Russians.
The Doolittle raid did not have any real military impact, but the psychological impact on the Japanese was worth the effort. It was also good for the American's morale to be able to hit the Japanese home islands. These may be intended to have the same impact.


Exactly first thing I thought of as well.

Apparently the vast numbers of dead brothers, husbands, and sons is not moving the needle fast enough for the Russian people. Bring the war to their doorstep. Make it REAL for them. So easy to live in your bubble when nothing is there to pierce it. At this point I think most of us here realize that Putin is not going to back down. So other means of making the Russians stopping must be paramount. And the best one is to get the people to turn on the government. It's a win/win/win for all of us here and Ukraine obviously.

One can hope at least.
I gave you a star but I think this will not play out as you suggest.

Nazi bombing of London during the Blitz only hardened the British to keep fighting.

Allied bombing of Germany only strengthened the Nazi war effort from the part of the general population

Russian bombing of Ukraine is not bringing them to their knees.

why would pin***** explosions in Russia do anything to Putin? If anything, it gets even more of the ignoramuses to really believe that they are fighting NATO and fighting for the very existence of the Rodina.


Aye. I agree actually. That's why I said one can hope. I don't actually believe it myself tbh.

Do stand firm on the Putin not stopping though. So how else does this war end? Militarily? Best option probably and the Ukes have punched back harder than the vast majority of us expected. Russia may very will collapse on the battlefield. Already lots of signs and cracks seen on the micro scale. Will it be enough to make a difference on the political front or will new waves of peasants just be rushed up? Political intervention is my next best bet I think. And internal strife makes the most sense to me on paper. But we shall just have to see I guess.

I will also say that the upcoming deep freezes is REALLY going to test Russia. More than the Ukes. Equipment is key of course but just as equal is discipline and resolve to operate in sub zero temps. And we have all seen a shocking lack of that from the Russians. On paper, the weather may be the force multiplier the Ukes have been looking for since HIMARS.
People today are soft. Deprive Moscow, or even parts of the city, of power/heat and the people will start to protest. The Russian people feel isolated from the "war" and will start to actually take notice when they have no heat or electricity. So far, body bags haven't done much, since killed aren't from Moscow/St. Petersburg, but a few cold nights in some dachas will change some minds

it would actually also put a lot of the Russkie citizens who are against the war and not seeing any reason at all to fight- so now they have a reason to fight when their own cities are being hit.

we complain about the Russians committing war crimes by targeting Uke civilians, but now some of you want to target Russian civilians?
agent-maroon
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Ukes are targeting rus infrastructure and not civilian apartment buildings. Big difference IMO
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Waffledynamics
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Bold move by this guy considering the sledgehammer execution video of the other deserter.

Quote:

Police detained suspect, who opened fire at police yesterday in Novoshakhtinsk. According to Baza it is former convict, and deserted fighter of Wagner PMC Pavel Nikolin


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/7-december-police-detained-suspect-who-opened-fire-at-police
AgBank
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JB!98 said:


The Doolittle raid did not have any real military impact, but the psychological impact on the Japanese was worth the effort. It was also good for the American's morale to be able to hit the Japanese home islands. These may be intended to have the same impact.
Agreed, but the initial result of the Doolittle raid was to solidify Japanese public support. As a result of Doolittle raid the Japanese killed 250k civilians and 70k Chinese soldiers: (source).

Quote:

Doolittle Raid were most severely felt in China: in reprisal for the raid, the Japanese launched the Zhejiang-Jiangxi campaign, killing 250,000 civilians and 70,000 soldiers.
I am not saying that attacking grid nodes is out of the question, but ensure that they have good military benefits, not tit-for-tat reasoning. Not when UK has momentum.



AgBank
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agent-maroon said:

Ukes are targeting rus infrastructure and not civilian apartment buildings. Big difference IMO
Electrical nodes during winter that support many Russian civilians is and should be a war crime. Military nodes...
P.U.T.U
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Japan also brought in Unit 731 that poisoned a ton of the civilians and even thousands of their own. Not the same since if Russia did something to the scale Japan did it would be considered a WMD attack on Ukraine which NATO would not take lightly
JFABNRGR
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MouthBQ98 said:

Russia can supple and grind away in the east.

They are highly vulnerable to supply disruptions and cutoff in the south. Frozen ground allows open field maneuvers to bypass strong points.
If I were Ukraine, I would go for cutting off and isolating the entire southern portion, threatening or even cutting off Crimea. That would throw Russia into political chaos, and a lot of Russian forces might be captured or forced to withdraw. This then shortens the front line immensely if successful.
big ammo/resupply point hit in the east likely with HIMARS strike SHAKTARSK Also lots of intercepted calls from orc soldiers stating no food, no shelter, and lots of soldiers deserting.

https://liveuamap.com/
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
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74OA
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Today's SITREP.
AgBank
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It puts context around why we used the bomb(s).
74OA
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74OA
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US intelligence doesn't think Russia can sufficiently reconstitute in time to go on the offensive in the Spring.

DNI
LMCane
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agent-maroon said:

Ukes are targeting rus infrastructure and not civilian apartment buildings. Big difference IMO
DCPD literally stated he thought it would be a good idea to target the Russians infrastructure such as electricity to make the citizens suffer.

he literally just wrote that above. freezing citizens to death is just as much a war crime as hitting them with a kinetic missile. Dead is dead.

any deliberate targeting of civilians is a war crime against international conventions. is this news to anyone?

Grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, namely, any of the following acts against persons or property protected under the provisions of the relevant Geneva Convention:

  • Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;

  • Waffledynamics
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    News from the Avdiivka and Bakhmut fronts:





    74OA
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    Polish SAMs to Ukraine.

    SA-3
    I already have a dog
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    LMCane said:

    agent-maroon said:

    Ukes are targeting rus infrastructure and not civilian apartment buildings. Big difference IMO
    DCPD literally stated he thought it would be a good idea to target the Russians infrastructure such as electricity to make the citizens suffer.

    he literally just wrote that above. freezing citizens to death is just as much a war crime as hitting them with a kinetic missile. Dead is dead.

    any deliberate targeting of civilians is a war crime against international conventions. is this news to anyone?

    Grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, namely, any of the following acts against persons or property protected under the provisions of the relevant Geneva Convention:

  • Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;




  • Of course this is all true according to international law. If you fight a war against a country breaking international law and you follow it you will lose absent an overwhelming advantage in strength that the Ukrainians just don't have.
    agent-maroon
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    LMCane said:

    agent-maroon said:

    Ukes are targeting rus infrastructure and not civilian apartment buildings. Big difference IMO
    DCPD literally stated he thought it would be a good idea to target the Russians infrastructure such as electricity to make the citizens suffer.

    he literally just wrote that above. freezing citizens to death is just as much a war crime as hitting them with a kinetic missile. Dead is dead.

    any deliberate targeting of civilians is a war crime against international conventions. is this news to anyone?

    Grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, namely, any of the following acts against persons or property protected under the provisions of the relevant Geneva Convention:

  • Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;



  • Orcs invaded and started leveling entire cities within days to weeks. Forgive me if I can't find any sympathy when it's turnabout time and some of their citizens suffer for it. Actions have consequences.

    As posted many times by many posters - they could simply withdraw from Ukraine and most of this particular discussion is moot.
    No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
    Waffledynamics
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    AlaskanAg99
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    High precision arty plus drone adjustments should make these defensive lines vulnerable.
    aTm '99
    P.U.T.U
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    Not for miles upon miles of entrenched lines with short Russian supply routes. It will be costly, men and/or money wise
    Fitch
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    Practically a European DMZ it sounds like.
    Smeghead4761
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    P.U.T.U said:

    With frozen ground it will be difficult for both sides to mount an offensive. Ukraine will need to keep targeting logistics/fuel and Russia will use quantity to take out Uke targets. It has already been an artillery heavy war and I see this happening over the winter. I think any offensives will be slow moving since both sides will mine roads and any offensives will likely need to come under artillery fire. Ukraine has done some of this, Wagner is basically the only Russian troops that have any concept of tactical maneuvering. As others said the issue is the short supply chain Russia has in the east.

    Still crazy to me that since Russia lost most of their special operations troops their best troops are private military contractors that are technically illegal in Russia.
    Spring and fall rasputitza are the times when it is difficult to conduct offensive maneuver in Russia/Ukraine. The time of mud. Mud is the great enemy of maneuver warfare.

    Frozen ground is solid and relatively easy to maneuver on, as long as the snow isn't too deep. During WWII, the Red Army would generally have two major offensives each year - one in the summer, and one in winter. Most notable among the winter offensives would be the first counteroffensive outside Moscow in the winter of 41-42, and Operation URANUS, the encirclement of Stalingrad, in 42-43.
    flakrat
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    lotoarmy said:

    AlaskanAg99 said:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-inability-to-protect-its-airbases-from-attack-is-baffling-2022-12

    "In a statement on Monday, the Russian Ministry of Defense asserted that attacks were carried out on its Engels and Dyagilevo air bases each home to nuclear-capable strategic bombers far from the front lines in Ukraine, killing three soldiers and damaging some aircraft. Those attacks, it claimed, were carried out with "Soviet-era" unmanned aerial vehicles.

    ...

    Some observers believe the Russian defense ministry may have been referencing the Tu-141 reconnaissance drone that was first built in the 1970s. In March, one of these drones, armed with a bomb, crashed in Croatia. Neither Ukraine nor Russia claimed it was theirs, but the incident showed the craft is still being used today."



    Looks like a V2 Nazi rocket.


    Actually, looks like a Nazi V1, not V2. V2 was a true ballistic missile powered by a rocket engine. The above picture is like the V1, which was a jet powered cruise missile, with short wings.

    One of their nicknames was the Buzz bomb because of the unique sound made by the pulsejet engine

    https://www.appropedia.org/Pulse_jet_engine
    Smeghead4761
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    There was a discussion some pages back about CASEVAC in the Russian and Ukrainian forces. The found this today on the FB page of North American Rescue (a first aid/medic supply company)


    Quote:

    "Medical evacuations are not like our NATO friends. A 20-30 minute CASEVAC is militaries fighting an insurgency with air dominance and big bases. Here, we must make do with what we have.

    If you are lucky, an hour. It depends on many things. Where you are wounded. Do you have the medical equipment needed to save your own life? Many soldiers here don't.

    Is there transport near? Many soldiers remove casualties from the combat zones by themselves - on foot. They carry them out.

    Next, is there a car or ambulance ready to take you? Can it get close? Many times, no, they cannot. Where is the hospital? Is it close? If you have severe injuries, 50/50 chance."
    - "Doc" Ukrainian Army. Eastern Front. December 3rd, 2022.

    Documented by @nicklaidthelaw
    @battles.and.beers


    This jives with my experience in U.S. Army mechanized and Stryker units - CASEVAC on a high intensity battlefield (which I trained for at CMTC and NTC, but thankfully never had to experience) is a very different animal from the same task in a counter-insurgency environment. You can't just fly that MEDEVAC bird to the nearest clear LZ to the point of injury. Those birds stay well back of the front line, so they're kept away from enemy fire. Evac at least as far back as the brigade medical support company is by ground assets, and that takes time.

    From the description given, it sounds like the AFU ground forces don't necessarily have an abundance of CASEVAC assets. I'm sure they're doing better at it than the Russians, but that whole "Golden Hour" standard that U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan doesn't sound like it's being achieved that often. And in fairness, I think U.S. forces would be hard pressed to do it under similar condition. I know I never heard of it when I was in company and battalion level assignments.

    Edited to add the quote box.
    Rossticus
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    Rossticus
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    Rossticus
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    Rossticus
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    Rossticus
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    Rossticus
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    https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/12/05/army-plans-dramatic-ammo-production-boost-as-ukraine-drains-stocks/

    'As donations to Ukraine strain allied munitions stockpiles, the U.S. Army is seeking a "dramatic" ramp up in monthly production of 155mm artillery shells over the next three years, its chief weapons buyer said Saturday.

    Those plans hinge on emergency spending for Ukraine that Congress already approved, but also on the more than $600 million in industrial investments in the next tranche of aid and multiyear authorities in the annual defense policy bill still under debate in Congress, according to Doug Bush, the assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, technology and logistics.'
    Rossticus
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    Rossticus
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    Smeghead4761
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    Rossticus said:


    Interesting how long the interval between rocket launches seems to be. I wonder if that's to allow the truck/launcher to stabilize after each rocket.

    The U.S. MLRS launchers (and I assume the HIMARS as well) locks the suspension before firing for greater stability and accuracy. I don't think the F-150, even in Raptor trim, can do that.
    fullback44
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    P.U.T.U said:

    Not for miles upon miles of entrenched lines with short Russian supply routes. It will be costly, men and/or money wise


    Bring the out the wart hogs … brrrrrrrrrr
    cslifer
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    If you watch the video skips a bit between shots. The length of time you are seeing between launches isn't a technical issue of letting the system stabilize, it is more of a poorly produced propaganda video issue.
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