JFABNRGR said:

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Pravdyne liberated only 20 miles from Kherson city center the Snihurivka town is actually closer to 40 miles. Closing in on several directions.

Pravdyne is liberated under AFU control! 🇺🇦 Finally new Ukrainian flags appear on the map. pic.twitter.com/uLHXVWnLBk

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 9, 2022

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certainly seems like some type of offensive is successfully marching toward Kherson City...

meanwhile defense in depth is underway all the way to northern crimea. FWIW I have not located this yet. Sure seems to me orcs are focused on keeping what they have south and east of the Dnipro.

I think this thread will surprise you...

Russia is digging new trenches in... Northern Crimea!

1/ pic.twitter.com/1EDabXX5Ib

— Benjamin Pittet (@COUPSURE) November 9, 2022

BREAKING

Russian High Command has issued a general retreat to all surviving Russian forces at the Western bank of the Dnipro River. Around 40,000 Russian troops are now officially running. #Kherson #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/OxF8kOVDeW

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 9, 2022

If 100% legit retreat…

Himars / M270 GMLRS pic.twitter.com/XsHgsFRYbM

— Angry Cossack (@auto_glam) November 9, 2022

Thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1590384793602392065.html

The ideal way forward would be to drive down from the northern end of the pocket with the aim of cutting off RU forces from the dam at Nova Kakhovka. We've already seen what appears to be retrograde movement from RU forces in this area.
2/

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) November 9, 2022

We don't know federal channels will present this. Will they sugar coat the bitter pill with soothing words on how "history will put everything in its place", on the Great Patriotic War; a phrase on how "when the army ends, the enemy ends" and other mantras?

— Rybar in English (@rybar_en) November 9, 2022

The reasons for this lie in the reports of those officials who, from 2020 (when the fundamental decision on the SMO was made), told us that everything was well and good.

— Rybar in English (@rybar_en) November 9, 2022

The reasons lie in the situational political and military impotence that a belief in one's own exceptionalism, infallibility and invincibility has created.

— Rybar in English (@rybar_en) November 9, 2022

The only thing that we, the representatives of this demographic, can do, is act according to the principle "not thanks to, but in spite of". In fact, this is how the Russian people have always won. In the darkest moments of our history.

So let us continue to do so.

— Rybar in English (@rybar_en) November 9, 2022

Markov attributes this defeat to Russia’s failure to declare war and catastrophic delay in making major decisions https://t.co/Nsb3oQbJzp

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) November 9, 2022

"This is a black page in the history of the Russian Army. Russian State. tragic page. But in many ways it will depend on you and me with what and how we will start the next one." - Wargonzo

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) November 9, 2022

From the comfort of his studio, Vladimir Solovyov is calling for all Russian men to undergo military training because "otherwise we'll lose our homeland"

Somehow I don't think he'll be joining them pic.twitter.com/z4eyyB70Cw

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) November 9, 2022

Head of the press service of the AFU's Operational Command South Natalia Gumenyuk says that the Russian statements are a "show" & could be "a psychological operation", she adds that "the Russians have prepared fortifications near Kherson and are ready to defend the city" pic.twitter.com/lcaWr7N7an

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) November 9, 2022

Russian TikTok warriors continue to provide content for memes pic.twitter.com/uRL4r38ueq

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 9, 2022

The guy being interviewed is a retired MARSOC Marine that was training Ukes before the war started and has been over there a total of 5 times with gear like IFAKs, boots, uniforms, body armor, etc. that the soldiers on the ground are asking for. He said for the most part Ukraine is not going on the offensive and the times they have they cut through the Russians like butter. He didn't get why they are just lobbing artillery without infantry attacking underneath of it. He said that Ukraine is also told how and when they can use certain equipment so they are not in complete control of their own tactics.

There has been a lot of propaganda on both sides with the use of social media.

Also how Russia went from being a superpower to this becoming a proxy war with Iran, China, and North Korea using Russia and the west using Ukraine. The USA saw Russia as a military superpower when they have proven they were anything but.

LMCane said:

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not sure I have ever seen a scenario before where the defending side says in public "we have lost and need to retreat" (against a RIVER LINE)

and the advancing side says: "we don't believe you we are not going to advance very fast"

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Probably because what Russia says is worthless and their Intel and recon is what matters. As it should be.

Russia troops aren't changing into civilian clothes throughout the city if they're pulling out.

I really think Russia is trying to lure Ukraine into heavy urban combat. Mentioned earlier in the thread they are probably trying to set up a pseudo-Stalingrad. If they can lock the Uke's into place there it may open areas for advance elsewhere.

Uke's need to find a way to cut Kherson off somewhere to the east and roll it up from the rear on the other side of the river.

LMCane said:

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not sure I have ever seen a scenario before where the defending side says in public "we have lost and need to retreat" (against a RIVER LINE)

and the advancing side says: "we don't believe you we are not going to advance very fast"

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I feel like Russia is hoping to put up a limited but fierce defense of Kherson like the Ukes did when defending Mariupol.

The Ukes seem to not want to see the city leveled like Mariupol was so they seem likely to bypass the city.

AgBQ-00 said:

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I really think Russia is trying to lure Ukraine into heavy urban combat. Mentioned earlier in the thread they are probably trying to set up a pseudo-Stalingrad. If they can lock the Uke's into place there it may open areas for advance elsewhere.

Uke's need to find a way to cut Kherson off somewhere to the east and roll it up from the rear on the other side of the river.

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Given the choices between between urban warfare and attacking through open fields I am going with urban warfare, however for me to get to engage in urban warfare in Kherson, I still have to run through the fields surrounding Kherson sans ABN capabilities.

Besides russian military falling apart something else has hit a breaking point in mother russia or possibly a combination thereof: Economy, out of ammo, out of compliant conscript able troops, internal power struggle, backdoor deals which may have included a veiled threat that ATACAMS already proven are headed to UKR in great supply. We also need to see what happens in the NE if the retreat is real and if Ukes drop HIMARS on the 3-5 temp crossings as they are loaded up with orcs and orc equipment. If I am the theater commander I am telling orcs to leave all equipment and walk out or the HIMARS are inbound hot and you can swim across.

Also the HIMARS radius above is incorrect you still need a 20KM+ buffer to secure the HIMARS from arty counter fire.

But would you rather undertake that urban warfare after cutting off supply lines or have to fight through it while they are able to resupply. (Granted their logistics train has been a mess so it might not matter.) But I'd rather have them completely cut off than leave the possibility they might get their crap together.

Rossticus said:

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Russian TikTok warriors continue to provide content for memes pic.twitter.com/uRL4r38ueq

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 9, 2022

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I think Russia has pockets of advanced technology that we fear like rockets and some of their planes. At the end of the day an army is as tough as their soldiers which have been proven fat, dumb, and lazy.

If Russia is getting out of Kherson I think they will pull back and then send 50+ rockets into the city. They can't defeat Ukraine but they can try to demoralize the citizens. If Russia cuts off the pipelines and takes out power plants Ukraine could have a tough winter

P.U.T.U said:

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I think Russia has pockets of advanced technology that we fear like rockets and some of their planes. At the end of the day an army is as tough as their soldiers which have been proven fat, dumb, and lazy.

If Russia is getting out of Kherson I think they will pull back and then send 50+ rockets into the city. They can't defeat Ukraine but they can try to demoralize the citizens. If Russia cuts off the pipelines and takes out power plants Ukraine could have a tough winter

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If Russia starts this, you can be sure of Ukraine cutting fresh water to Crimea. Ukraine will be cold, but Crimea will be melting snow to drink

JFABNRGR said:

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Given the choices between between urban warfare and attacking through open fields I am going with urban warfare, however for me to get to engage in urban warfare in Kherson, I still have to run through the fields surrounding Kherson sans ABN capabilities.

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Given the choices for Kherson, I'm going with the turkey shoot option. Pound 'em unmercifully with surgical strikes until they leave voluntarily. It's only a question of when, not if.

AgBQ-00 said:

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But would you rather undertake that urban warfare after cutting off supply lines or have to fight through it while they are able to resupply. (Granted their logistics train has been a mess so it might not matter.) But I'd rather have them completely cut off than leave the possibility they might get their crap together.

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cut off for sure even besieged for a bit but how do you do that safely when your in arty range from the other side of the river.

I am an airborne guy and its so hard to accept that capability isn't there to jump behind them, have CAS, or direct air.....that said I think bypass while keeping pressure on and come through somewhere else but where after relooking at the map and terrain again, and without a real air & naval capability this whole area all the way to the Donetsk region is nasty and will remain to the King of Battle. There really isn't another option IMO except keep pushing with as minimal loss as you can south and SE. Maybe focus on the other cities which are already so damaged melitopul/mariupol and hope they really do leave Kherson and its still standing.

I think the shelling back and forth that has occurred in the east since 2014 is going to repeat in the south between dnipro and northern crimea for years to come. Hopefully Zelensky's 152/155/220MM ammo orders assumed the long war needs.

Send them another dozen HIMARS or ATACAMS.

If they want to take Kherson carefully, ok then. Cross the DNeiper, take Nova Kakhovka, race east on the highway and take Melitipol. To the northeast, Retake Svatove. Then back to the southwest punch them at Enerhodar and the power plant. Then say they will field a call with Putin.

Interesting thread about what's going on in Kherson.

Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1590445464981499905.html

A thread on RU withdrawal and UA offensives in Kherson region. Sources from @Volya_media, UA OPCOM South, + others.

As of 10 PM on 11/9/22. East of the Inhulets river, UA is advancing towards Beryslav and the Kahkovka dam. RU is pulling some troops in to cover this area.

🧵1/10 pic.twitter.com/DLdX7J08An

— LanguageLearner (@LanguageIearner) November 9, 2022

I'm glad to see this news considering the lousy couple of days for the USA.

"It appears RU may want to trade blood for time in Kherson"

Maps

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1lscRK6ehG0l2V-XvJ16nsyblMsQ&ll=47.046645088752705%2C33.62601687829163&z=11

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1gO8X7RC8cUzc-1q7-s4-09X53HNIEJA&ll=47.947523487668825%2C36.97236740200958&z=8

JFABNRGR said:

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"It appears RU may want to trade blood for time in Kherson"

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Not trying to be an ass about your post, but when has that ever not been true? The orcs send their own to die when other options would work better.

Waffledynamics said:

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Interesting thread about what's going on in Kherson.

Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1590445464981499905.html

A thread on RU withdrawal and UA offensives in Kherson region. Sources from @Volya_media, UA OPCOM South, + others.

As of 10 PM on 11/9/22. East of the Inhulets river, UA is advancing towards Beryslav and the Kahkovka dam. RU is pulling some troops in to cover this area.

🧵1/10 pic.twitter.com/DLdX7J08An

— LanguageLearner (@LanguageIearner) November 9, 2022

I'm glad to see this news considering the lousy couple of days for the USA.

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There is potential that they could leave 16K troops behind if they blow the dam on their way out. They have a lot of mobiks, but 16k men left to die or surrender is just staggering.

They did that by an order of magnitude larger in WWII in 1941. They had the population to make that workable.

NEW - Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, estimates well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded in Ukraine conflict, says "probably" the same on the Ukrainian side. Speaking now.

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) November 10, 2022

I agree and posted the quote from the tweeted article because I dont believe the publized retreat from Kherson carries the same meaning we westerners think it means.

If the Ukes have comparable casualties to the Russians, it would explain their reluctance to commit troops to the offensive.