Stephen Kotkin (my favorite Soviet Historian) suggests that the exodus of IT workers started even before 2022 invasion.


The longer these educated adults stay out of Russia, the harder it will be for them to return (at the very least, life gets in the way).

The West would have to get bored with the war and stop supplying Ukraine.

This is the formula as I see it.

Ukraine surprises Russia -> Russia retaliates against civilians -> West sends more weapons etc. -> Ukraine's resolve increases.

This happened with:
1. The sinking of Moskva
2. Kharkiv counter offinsive success
3. Attack on Crimean Bridge

Just look at how Germany and Israeli provisions have progressed.

RogerEnright said:

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Stephen Kotkin (my favorite Soviet Historian) suggests that the exodus of IT workers started even before 2022 invasion.


The longer these educated adults stay out of Russia, the harder it will be for them to return (at the very least, life gets in the way).

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There have been several white papers on the "brain drain" Russia has been experiencing for more than a few years even before this war they started.

Raytheon Technologies CFO Neil Mitchill says the company is advocating a multiyear buy for munitions. "It's really difficult to start up a cold line, especially when you need them."

— Lee Hudson (@LeeHudson_) November 8, 2022

Russian lines collapsing. That one is sure. Question is now only how (dis-)organized this is going to happen.

Northern Kherson is now one big shooting gallery for the Ukrainian artillery. #Ukraine

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 9, 2022

Kherson, I think, it's happening...

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 9, 2022

According unconfirmed reports from locals, Russians have started to abandon Novokairy and Mylove at the Dnipro river. #Kherson #Ukraine

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 9, 2022

Seeing reports of explosions in Nova Kakhovka and a pedestrian bridge blown up in Kherson on LiveUaMap.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-november-explosions-reported-in-nova-kakhovka-area

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-november-tiahynka-pedestrian-bridge-in-kherson-region-was

You talk to yourself?

Hadn't seen this posted: Stremousov Assumes Room Temperature

Waffledynamics said:

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Seeing reports of explosions in Nova Kakhovka and a pedestrian bridge blown up in Kherson on LiveUaMap.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-november-explosions-reported-in-nova-kakhovka-area

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-november-tiahynka-pedestrian-bridge-in-kherson-region-was

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This map is showing at least 8 bridges destroyed overnight. This is an indicator of mass retreat but somebody in Uke command must be the 10th man. Also reports on reddit of 700+ orcs killed yesterday.

Red marks the places where bridges (were claimed to be)/(were) destroyed/damaged today by local media.
Bridges that were damaged/destroyed earlier are marked in yellow. pic.twitter.com/TkEwMLkx7R

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 9, 2022

RogerEnright said:

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Stephen Kotkin (my favorite Soviet Historian) suggests that the exodus of IT workers started even before 2022 invasion.

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Russia has had a brain drain for decades.

Speaking of S Kotkin, below is pretty good:


- Interesting how Professor Kotkin says that Izyum attack was more of an intelligence success than pure brute force. The Russians were already retreating, the Ukrainians intercepted this information and decided to hit hard at that moment. (sorry, this was the first that I heard of that angle)

The Ukrainian flag has been raised over Snihurivka, Mykolaiv Oblast.
#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/jPhCVqMzc0

— BlueSauron👁️ (@Blue_Sauron) November 9, 2022

Big get on the Kherson front.

Did Ukraine just get Kherson back?!

Quote:

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Russian Defense Minister Shoigu ordered Surovkin to withdraw troops to the left bank of Dnipro river

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-november-russian-defense-minister-shoigu-ordered-surovkin

Waffledynamics said:

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Did Ukraine just get Kherson back?!

Quote:

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Russian Defense Minister Shoigu ordered Surovkin to withdraw troops to the left bank of Dnipro river

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-november-russian-defense-minister-shoigu-ordered-surovkin

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Very doubtful. They would not announce this IMO without committing seppuku. Ukes should repeat this to those in the area in all manners of delivery.

Actions speak louder than words. We see no signs that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight. A part of the ru-group is preserved in the city, and additional reserves are charged to the region. 🇺🇦 is liberating territories based on intelligence data, not staged TV statements.

— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) November 9, 2022

Waffledynamics said:

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Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Kherson Military-Civilian Administration, posted on his Telegram a message saying Ukrainian forces managed to break into northern part of Snihurivka in Kherson direction and gained a foothold after a day battle.https://t.co/gvYwyOW5cD pic.twitter.com/obKVOQcsaX

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 8, 2022

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IF this is a true, that is the biggest news in months now.

look on the map and notice where that town is situated in comparison to Kherson City-

it's half way from the original Uke front lines and a complete penetration of the Russkie defensive lines.

it looks only 15 miles from Kherson City to the northeast with a MLR running right down to the Dnipro

Waffledynamics said:

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The Ukrainian flag has been raised over Snihurivka, Mykolaiv Oblast.
#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/jPhCVqMzc0

— BlueSauron👁️ (@Blue_Sauron) November 9, 2022

Big get on the Kherson front.

---

clearly it seems that although we have been hearing for weeks that the Ukes are digging in trench systems for the winter..

they actually somehow managed to create a strategic break in the Russkie front in Kherson Oblast

JFABNRGR said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Seeing reports of explosions in Nova Kakhovka and a pedestrian bridge blown up in Kherson on LiveUaMap.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-november-explosions-reported-in-nova-kakhovka-area

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-november-tiahynka-pedestrian-bridge-in-kherson-region-was

---

This map is showing at least 8 bridges destroyed overnight. This is an indicator of mass retreat but somebody in Uke command must be the 10th man. Also reports on reddit of 700+ orcs killed yesterday.

Red marks the places where bridges (were claimed to be)/(were) destroyed/damaged today by local media.
Bridges that were damaged/destroyed earlier are marked in yellow. pic.twitter.com/TkEwMLkx7R

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 9, 2022

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so is the assumption that the Russkie forces are retreating and blowing the bridges behind them...

or that the Ukes are advancing and blowing the bridges to trap the defending Russkies?

LMCane said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Seeing reports of explosions in Nova Kakhovka and a pedestrian bridge blown up in Kherson on LiveUaMap.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-november-explosions-reported-in-nova-kakhovka-area

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-november-tiahynka-pedestrian-bridge-in-kherson-region-was

---

This map is showing at least 8 bridges destroyed overnight. This is an indicator of mass retreat but somebody in Uke command must be the 10th man. Also reports on reddit of 700+ orcs killed yesterday.

Red marks the places where bridges (were claimed to be)/(were) destroyed/damaged today by local media.
Bridges that were damaged/destroyed earlier are marked in yellow. pic.twitter.com/TkEwMLkx7R

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 9, 2022

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so is the assumption that the Russkie forces are retreating and blowing the bridges behind them...

or that the Ukes are advancing and blowing the bridges to trap the defending Russkies?

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I would suspect it was Russians trying to slow down the Ukrainians converging on their ex-fil routes out of Kherson and across the river. They also want to make it harder for the Ukrainians to rapidly move troops up and down the Dnipro to any bridgehead they try to create across the river in the future.

JFABNRGR said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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I just started this podcast but its between a retired SEAL and Marine MARSOC veteran that has been over to Ukraine 5 times now. In the end, the longer this war goes on the more it benefits Russia. Russia will keep throwing people at the war and outlast their enemy. This is what they have always done. My guess is at the end is the motto of the SAS, those who dares wins. Get the offensive and keep pushing Ukraine. The west, get them legit weapon systems now and move into Crimea this winter

Vigilance Elite with Mark Turner

---

So far an hour in and wow it's bad. If Ukraine wanted to win the war they would push on the offensive, for the most part they are just using artillery and advancing when Russia leaves. I will listen to the second part on my drive to a customer when they have someone from Ukraine on. At this point it seems nothing has changed, this is a war to get politicians more money in their pockets on all sides

• Complete mismanagement
• 100,000 Ukes have enlisted since March and there is not a good training program, most have gotten fatter
• No infantry type training
• Foreign legion type of troops with war experience that were used initially on offensives are being used for check points and similar stuff
• For the most part it is just an artillery war lobbing munitions back and forth
• Ukraine is not really "gaining" ground. Russia is so bad at logistics they have to pull back
• Lots of eastern Ukraine doesn't want to be part of Ukraine
• Ukraine is doing the same thing they did pre-2014 when we started training them
• We sent $60 billion over there and most of Ukraine doesn't have winter boots or IFAKs
• Uke special operations aren't getting funding, doesn't have radios or day bags

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Is this really what the PC says???? I might not waste my time listening to it:

• Complete mismanagement??? yet they survived a russian invasion and are taking ground back while destroying the russian military!
• No training yet they are utilizing equipment effectively from a dozen or more countries written in as many languages.
• I am an infantryman and videos over the last 6 months have demonstrated significantly better tactics.
• Foreign Legion No comment.
• Yes artillery is the king of battle but infantry must hold ground.
• Yes russia is bad at logistics AND a lot more. Ukes have been hammering supply lines and even deep striking. Mosckva, Sevastopol, Azovske, etc
• Lots of eastern Ukraine doesn't want to be a part of Ukraine BS, maybe only after polling the current occupiers.
• Ukraine is doing the same thing they did pre-2014 when we started training them. OK
• $60 billion is a lot. People keep mentioning how corrupt they are but are they really more corrupt than we are? See the growth of all politician wealth over their career.
• I routinely see SO in action and all with decent gear radios/rucks/etc.

---

I haven't listened yet, but it's on my list.

I'm a bit skeptical of infantry soldiers (or even highly experienced western SOF troops) discussing anything above battalion level tactics. They may have a very good tactical picture but their strategic vantage point is probably quite poor. They can say, the US Army would be steam rolling across the country so the Ukes should be too, but we're not going to get a look behind the curtain to see what strategic limitations Ukraine is facing. What intelligence access the Ukes are really getting, what kinds of strings are attached to these arms transfers, what are the true causality numbers, what sort of reserves of materials do they have.

I do think it's unfair to suggest that the Ukraine leadership wants to stabilize the lines and transition to a low grade war just so they and other elites can profit by laundering foreign aid. (I'm not naive enough to think none of that is happening - If the big guy asks for a 10% kickback on funds you need to feed your army, you pay it.)

txags92 said:

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The one thing that is finite for the Ukrainians is their manpower. They do not have the ability that Russia has to call up another 50,000 troops on a whim. So their decisions on when and where to engage and how to conduct an offensive are predicated on not putting large numbers of troops at risk without a clear chance at big territorial gains that they will be able to hold onto and adequately supply with their logistics trains. So they are going to work a lot harder to soften up the orc defenses and destroy the resupply lines for the orcs before they commit large numbers of troops to go on the offensive. That looks like sitting back and having artillery dules with the orcs, but if the Ukrainians are hitting critical supply depots and limiting resupply to the front lines, while avoiding losing large amounts of equipment to inaccurate return fire from the orcs, that is a win in their book.

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Agree, every resource is finite, but I'd point out that Ukraine has a large reserve of manpower as its population includes ~11M males between the ages of 15 and 54.

Even if fully half of those are unavailable/unsuitable for service (and excluding females), that's still far more manpower than it can likely ever exhaust.

LMCane said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Seeing reports of explosions in Nova Kakhovka and a pedestrian bridge blown up in Kherson on LiveUaMap.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-november-explosions-reported-in-nova-kakhovka-area

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-november-tiahynka-pedestrian-bridge-in-kherson-region-was

---

This map is showing at least 8 bridges destroyed overnight. This is an indicator of mass retreat but somebody in Uke command must be the 10th man. Also reports on reddit of 700+ orcs killed yesterday.

Red marks the places where bridges (were claimed to be)/(were) destroyed/damaged today by local media.
Bridges that were damaged/destroyed earlier are marked in yellow. pic.twitter.com/TkEwMLkx7R

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 9, 2022

---

so is the assumption that the Russkie forces are retreating and blowing the bridges behind them...

or that the Ukes are advancing and blowing the bridges to trap the defending Russkies?

---

Great observation I missed, but the real point as you mention, there are alot of russians now blocked from retreating easily and clearly falls in line with russian doctrine throughout history. You scripts hold the line while I go check with the CP on the south side of Dnipro.

LMCane said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Seeing reports of explosions in Nova Kakhovka and a pedestrian bridge blown up in Kherson on LiveUaMap.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-november-explosions-reported-in-nova-kakhovka-area

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-november-tiahynka-pedestrian-bridge-in-kherson-region-was

---

This map is showing at least 8 bridges destroyed overnight. This is an indicator of mass retreat but somebody in Uke command must be the 10th man. Also reports on reddit of 700+ orcs killed yesterday.

Red marks the places where bridges (were claimed to be)/(were) destroyed/damaged today by local media.
Bridges that were damaged/destroyed earlier are marked in yellow. pic.twitter.com/TkEwMLkx7R

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 9, 2022

---

so is the assumption that the Russkie forces are retreating and blowing the bridges behind them...

or that the Ukes are advancing and blowing the bridges to trap the defending Russkies?

---

Russia is likely holding up in Kherson to fight an insurgency, showing their home audience there is "homegrown" resistance to the nazis.

This selection of Russian vehicles bound for the front lines in Ukraine gives an idea of how limited Moscow’s technological options are thanks to sanctions pic.twitter.com/x1WQpvZkyz

— Business Ukraine mag (@Biz_Ukraine_Mag) November 9, 2022

More on the Russian retreat from Kherson. BYE

Waffledynamics said:

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Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Kherson Military-Civilian Administration, posted on his Telegram a message saying Ukrainian forces managed to break into northern part of Snihurivka in Kherson direction and gained a foothold after a day battle.https://t.co/gvYwyOW5cD pic.twitter.com/obKVOQcsaX

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 8, 2022

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This was one of his last social media posts because he is (allegedly) now dead.

Stremousov, a local Ukrainian politician and blogger, welcomed the Russian occupation of Kherson and became a key pro-Russian voice in the region.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) November 9, 2022

#Russian media published photos from the alleged site of #Stremousov's death. pic.twitter.com/9t4AYEUjzm

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) November 9, 2022

Shoigu ordered to begin the withdrawal of troops from #Kherson across the Dnieper River.

Kherson and adjacent settlements cannot be fully supplied and function. It is proposed to take up defensive positions along the left bank of the Dnieper River, said General Surovikin. pic.twitter.com/iK6jM82nUY

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) November 9, 2022

Russian State Media- “Shoigu agreed with the proposal to organize defense along the line of the Dnieper River: proceed with the withdrawal of troops”

(The Russians will withdraw from Kherson city and the west bank of the Dnipro)

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 9, 2022

Surovikin did not look happy announcing the retreat pic.twitter.com/lD7A93An6d

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 9, 2022

And now reports that the Russians will abandon everything north of the Dnipro https://t.co/Hhs6qx2yyx

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 9, 2022

Private PoopyPants said:

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Shoigu ordered to begin the withdrawal of troops from #Kherson across the Dnieper River.

Kherson and adjacent settlements cannot be fully supplied and function. It is proposed to take up defensive positions along the left bank of the Dnieper River, said General Surovikin. pic.twitter.com/iK6jM82nUY

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) November 9, 2022

Russian State Media- “Shoigu agreed with the proposal to organize defense along the line of the Dnieper River: proceed with the withdrawal of troops”

(The Russians will withdraw from Kherson city and the west bank of the Dnipro)

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 9, 2022

Surovikin did not look happy announcing the retreat pic.twitter.com/lD7A93An6d

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 9, 2022

And now reports that the Russians will abandon everything north of the Dnipro https://t.co/Hhs6qx2yyx

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 9, 2022

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So they are basically ceding Crimea's fresh water supply to Ukraine or is that not in range from the north side of the river?

I'm no expert, but I would think uaf could set up shop nearby across the river and shell the crap out of that canal. There has to be some locks and channels etc that can be fubar'd.

Pravdyne liberated only 20 miles from Kherson city center the Snihurivka town is actually closer to 40 miles. Closing in on several directions.

Pravdyne is liberated under AFU control! 🇺🇦 Finally new Ukrainian flags appear on the map. pic.twitter.com/uLHXVWnLBk

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 9, 2022