***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,801,568 Views | 48270 Replies | Last: 5 hrs ago by No Spin Ag
MouthBQ98
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Pipe looks like any steel that I've ever seen that was physically snapped off by extreme force. Not melted, not cut. Sheared by extreme force. The way the edge looks it sure looks like an internal high pressure blast. A high grade explosive works/destroys by extreme pressure. It is so fast and sudden there is no burning or melting of anything.

I'm going with the slug or pig in the pipe until I see more that looks differently.
Waffledynamics
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AgLA06
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God they're idiots. Their inbred country is the only one that doesn't get the point of body armor.

They're wearing airsoft vest, the Ukes are wearing body armor.
P.U.T.U
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I bet Russia is still using steal armor.

They shot it with a 5.56 and 7.62x39, the SVD is chambered in 7.62x54 which packs a punch. Pretty impressive there was very little signs of getting hit 3 times.

The Wagner guy looked like he had a machine gun sight on his AKM, makes me think he just sprays and prays. Not sure what the MOA is on it but I am sure it is pretty big
AgBQ-00
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So they're surprised that other nations actually give their soldiers things that work as they are supposed to? Imagine that.
Sims
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Ukraine continues to impress. They've managed to get their hands on unobtanium.
MouthBQ98
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Basically the same stuff they make rifle targets with. Special steel alloys that are laminated and super hardened as to shatter the incoming projectile.
JFABNRGR
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Sims said:

Ukraine continues to impress. They've managed to get their hands on unobtanium.
Well done. LOL for many reasons on this one, including looking to ensure my BA was the latest greatest lightest.
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twk
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There's been some talk about Russia blowing the dam at Kakhovka. They might do it, but, as usual in this operation, it would be a pretty stupid move. First, let's look at the terrain:



The dam is in the upper right corner. Kherson is on the right (north) bank, over on the left hand side, on a high point. In fact, the entire right bank up to Kherson is the bluff side of the river, meaning that destruction of the dam would mostly affect the left (south) bank of the Dneiper, the area where the Russians are withdrawing to. Unless they intend to skeedaddle all the way back south, down into Crimea, the resulting flood will hinder them more than the Ukrainians.

Long term, as I've mentioned above, the reservoir created by this dam feeds a canal which provides water crucial to Crimea. The Russians have had a hard time in Crimea since the 2014 occupation because Ukraine dammed the canal just short of the line of occupation, depriving the peninsula of water from this Soviet-built canal system. If they were intending to withdraw Crimea and hold it with hopes of returning to the Dneiper at some point, blowing the dam would not make sense long term.

I could see where someone commanding the army, desperate to cover a disorganized retreat, might find some short term expediency in it, or some Kremlin hack might think they could paint it as a false flag operation, but if anyone with a pulse gives this any thought, they will be reluctant to do it due to the consequences, and what it says about Russia's ability to ever prevail in this conflict.
fullback44
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FriscoKid said:


now thats crazy
AgLA06
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fullback44 said:

FriscoKid said:


now thats crazy
Just another day in Ukraine. Their close air support jets fly the same way down highways.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

Just another day in Ukraine. Their close air support jets fly the same way down highways.
Reminds me of the scene of the movie Outbreak where the helicopter is hovering over a flatbed truck and becomes ground clutter.
CS78
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Waffledynamics said:

https://twtter.com/Boba12340769066/status/1582977773630464001


Interesting "khyber" AK47 there. The triangle folding stock from an AK74 retrofitted to a AK47. Along with a Russian, 1960s aluminum waffle mag.
GAC06
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The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is also located on that reservoir and gets its cooling water from it, right? I wonder if there's a backup if the reservoir recedes due to blowing the dam?
Waffledynamics
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lobopride
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Hasn't that reactor been shutdown for a while?

Pretty sure it isn't producing a ton of heat now.
GAC06
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I read that they shut down at least one but that 1-4 were still active but I'm curious as well
twk
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GAC06 said:

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is also located on that reservoir and gets its cooling water from it, right? I wonder if there's a backup if the reservoir recedes due to blowing the dam?
I don't know what the back up plan would be. I'm not an engineer type, but if they aren't generating power (and needing water for steam to turn the turbines), perhaps they don't need so much water for any cooling of spent rods and such.
74OA
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Nice summation of Germany's non-stop internal debate. "Of course, this message very much suits the Russians who want to make the occupation of eastern Ukraine permanenta fait accompli that would allow them to regroup, rearm, create a massive refugee crisis in Europe, and then attack the rest of Ukraine in a few years time. A temporary cease-fire would empower Russian President Vladimir Putin, who could claim victory now and continue the war later."

HAND-WRINGING
Fightin_Aggie
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lobopride said:

Hasn't that reactor been shutdown for a while?

Pretty sure it isn't producing a ton of heat now.


The rods need cooling water even when off I believe.
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FamousAgg
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twk said:

GAC06 said:

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is also located on that reservoir and gets its cooling water from it, right? I wonder if there's a backup if the reservoir recedes due to blowing the dam?
I don't know what the back up plan would be. I'm not an engineer type, but if they aren't generating power (and needing water for steam to turn the turbines), perhaps they don't need so much water for any cooling of spent rods and such.


The 6th reactor shut down on 9/11/22. So not actively producing power right now. Still heat being generated by spent fuel im sure.

The water used in the steam cycle is extremely pure water, it's separate from cooling water and very little is lost during the cycle. The cooling water by comparison is going to be much higher volume and the purity is less important. Typically the two systems have non-contact heat exchangers so the irradiated water doesn't contaminate the cooling water.

This reservoir is huge, 800 square miles with an average depth of 28 ft. So it should maintain for a little while? The dam is 90ft tall so it's anyones guess how long it would take to drain that reservoir. Surely the plant has some kind of low water level contingency

AgLA06
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BattleGrackle said:

twk said:

GAC06 said:

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is also located on that reservoir and gets its cooling water from it, right? I wonder if there's a backup if the reservoir recedes due to blowing the dam?
I don't know what the back up plan would be. I'm not an engineer type, but if they aren't generating power (and needing water for steam to turn the turbines), perhaps they don't need so much water for any cooling of spent rods and such.


The 6th reactor shut down on 9/11/22. So not actively producing power right now. Still heat being generated by spent fuel im sure.

The water used in the steam cycle is extremely pure water, it's separate from cooling water and very little is lost during the cycle. The cooling water by comparison is going to be much higher volume and the purity is less important. Typically the two systems have non-contact heat exchangers so the irradiated water doesn't contaminate the cooling water.

This reservoir is huge, 800 square miles with an average depth of 28 ft. So it should maintain for a little while? The dam is 90ft tall so it's anyones guess how long it would take to drain that reservoir. Surely the plant has some kind of low water level contingency


Have you learned nothing about the Soviets / Russians?
74OA
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First specifics of the deal that I've read. "Reportedly, Russia traded more than 60 Su-35 to Iran in exchange for several thousand drones that they are now using to terrorize Ukrainian civilians and disabling elements of Ukrainian critical infrastructure."

EXPORTS
74OA
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Sanctions evaders caught. Lock 'em up and lose the key.

CHARGES
LMCane
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74OA said:

First specifics of the deal that I've read. "Reportedly, Russia traded more than 60 Su-35 to Iran in exchange for several thousand drones that they are now using to terrorize Ukrainian civilians and disabling elements of Ukrainian critical infrastructure."

EXPORTS
not sure I am buying an unsourced "reports may be that this happened" without any actual confirmation.

so out of the small stock of advanced Russian attack jets, they gave several squadrons to the Iranians and no one has commented on this yet?!

on a purely tactical level, 60 SU-35s can wreak a whole lot more damage than these small Iranian drones can.
74OA
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LMCane said:

74OA said:

First specifics of the deal that I've read. "Reportedly, Russia traded more than 60 Su-35 to Iran in exchange for several thousand drones that they are now using to terrorize Ukrainian civilians and disabling elements of Ukrainian critical infrastructure."

EXPORTS
not sure I am buying an unsourced "reports may be that this happened" without any actual confirmation.

so out of the small stock of advanced Russian attack jets, they gave several squadrons to the Iranians and no one has commented on this yet?!

on a purely tactical level, 60 SU-35s can wreak a whole lot more damage than these small Iranian drones can.
Defense News is very reputable. I get the impression that the mullahs drove a hard bargain with a despertate Putin and both sides are still intent on denying any Iranian involvement.
P.U.T.U
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LMCane said:

74OA said:

First specifics of the deal that I've read. "Reportedly, Russia traded more than 60 Su-35 to Iran in exchange for several thousand drones that they are now using to terrorize Ukrainian civilians and disabling elements of Ukrainian critical infrastructure."

EXPORTS
not sure I am buying an unsourced "reports may be that this happened" without any actual confirmation.

so out of the small stock of advanced Russian attack jets, they gave several squadrons to the Iranians and no one has commented on this yet?!

on a purely tactical level, 60 SU-35s can wreak a whole lot more damage than these small Iranian drones can.
Long term? Maybe. Short term with Russia already have a pilot shortage? Probably not. If they really did purchase thousands of these they can do a lot of damage if the Ukes don't find an inexpensive way to take them down especially around cities. They don't do as much damage as a 500-2000 pound bomb but they can emit a lot of terror from being able to almost randomly attack or attack in swarms.
agent-maroon
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I don't blame Putin for not wanting anyone to know about that deal. That's terrible and would have got anybody else thrown out of a window
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JB!98
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74OA said:

LMCane said:

74OA said:

First specifics of the deal that I've read. "Reportedly, Russia traded more than 60 Su-35 to Iran in exchange for several thousand drones that they are now using to terrorize Ukrainian civilians and disabling elements of Ukrainian critical infrastructure."

EXPORTS
not sure I am buying an unsourced "reports may be that this happened" without any actual confirmation.

so out of the small stock of advanced Russian attack jets, they gave several squadrons to the Iranians and no one has commented on this yet?!

on a purely tactical level, 60 SU-35s can wreak a whole lot more damage than these small Iranian drones can.
Defense News is very reputable. I get the impression that the mullahs drove a hard bargain with a despertate Putin and both sides are still intent on denying any Iranian involvement.
Makes sense. The Iranians see the handwriting on the wall that they are going to have to face the IAF's F-35's and 4th gen aircraft sooner or later. Why not deal for the "best" that the Russians have. Seems like a good deal for the Iranians and a desperate deal for the Russians.
P.U.T.U
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60 SU-35 jets cost an estimated $5.1 billion, all for a few thousand cheap drones. If this is true that is one of the worst financial moves ever
AgLA06
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Only if they can train pilots and maintain the aircraft. Russia has proven they have no idea how to do that and yet that's the only option for advisors.
AgLA06
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We're also assuming Russia ever plans to deliver those planes.

Oh, and based on the rumors of Iran supplying ballistic missiles as well, suddenly that deal gets closer to reality.
Pumpkinhead
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P.U.T.U said:

60 SU-35 jets cost an estimated $5.1 billion, all for a few thousand cheap drones. If this is true that is one of the worst financial moves ever
Does seem unlikely given those drones cost about $20K apiece per reports.

$5.1 billion/20K = approx: 250,000 drones.
FriscoKid
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txags92
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74OA said:

LMCane said:

74OA said:

First specifics of the deal that I've read. "Reportedly, Russia traded more than 60 Su-35 to Iran in exchange for several thousand drones that they are now using to terrorize Ukrainian civilians and disabling elements of Ukrainian critical infrastructure."

EXPORTS
not sure I am buying an unsourced "reports may be that this happened" without any actual confirmation.

so out of the small stock of advanced Russian attack jets, they gave several squadrons to the Iranians and no one has commented on this yet?!

on a purely tactical level, 60 SU-35s can wreak a whole lot more damage than these small Iranian drones can.
Defense News is very reputable. I get the impression that the mullahs drove a hard bargain with a despertate Putin and both sides are still intent on denying any Iranian involvement.
I wouldn't be surprised if that is a give us the drones now and we will give you 60 SU35s as soon as we can make them for you.
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