***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,584,880 Views | 47797 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by Eliminatus
JFABNRGR
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rgag12 said:

txaggie02 said:

Got a feeling these Iranian drones are gonna be a major issue for Ukrainian. Even if they can shoot 75% of them down, Russian reportedly has thousands, so the can launch dozens each day at key military and critical infrastructure targets.


I agree, Ukraine/the west are going to have to quickly, and cheaply, come up with a way to handle these inexpensive kamikaze drones and missiles Iran is mass producing. If they can't it could prove to be a perceived pivot point in the war like the introduction of HIMARS were


Not going to be a pivot point in the war as they are mostly just hitting civilian targets creating more support for UKR. They can't hold ground.

Cheapest way to stopping the drones is to hit them at their points of production or distribution points. Iran has forgotten soleimani and needs a major reminder.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
sclaff
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stop frames @ 27 seconds to see the drone


Eliminatus
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GAC06 said:

Fake video
It's from a video game yes, but gets the point across pretty well. I did a case study on the CRAM system (boss was on the main design team) and like I mentioned above, think it would be best choice against these things.

The main problem is getting it into theater and training and then supplying it. Those things eat shells like no other…

But it is cost effective and has a high rate of success. I wonder if it has been in discussions with us and the Ukes
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Loud explosion was reported in Dzhankoi, Crimea


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/17-october-loud-explosion-was-reported-in-dzhankoi-crimea

Important rail point here.
GAC06
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Big difference between using one to defend a FOB and using them to defend cities. One, even with the self destructing rounds pouring streams of 20mm at very low altitude drones in an urban environment is a problem. Also, they'd need a lot of them to defend such large areas.
one MEEN Ag
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GAC06 said:

Fake video
You are right. My apologies. I didn't catch that.

This should be a real one in action.

Eliminatus
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GAC06 said:

Big difference between using one to defend a FOB and using them to defend cities. One, even with the self destructing rounds pouring streams of 20mm at very low altitude drones in an urban environment is a problem. Also, they'd need a lot of them to defend such large areas.
True. I was in brutal tactics mode and didn't even think of trying to cover the entire city though. Just critical infrastructure hard points. Oof. Or main approaches perhaps

And the CRAM has programmable zones of fire for the exact problem you speak of. The amount of math, thought, and engineering that went into that aspect alone is staggering. They are also designed to be fully integrated into a mesh system that can identify, decide, and engage in groups or individuals. CRAM was designed specifically for events like this and over the last two decades pretty much every scenario has been identified and solutions found.
Not a Bot
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One of the purposes in using these drones is the depletion of Ukrainian anti-air assets. These drones cost maybe $10-$15,000, if that. The missiles used to shoot them down often cost 20 to 30 times more.
Waffledynamics
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Speaking of countries with good anti-air capabilities:

Zobel
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Quote:

Not going to be a pivot point in the war as they are mostly just hitting civilian targets creating more support for UKR. They can't hold ground.
i could be wrong but infrastructure - particularly electricity - hasn't seemed to be a prime russian target til now. that could be strategically important.
lb3
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Zobel said:


Quote:

Not going to be a pivot point in the war as they are mostly just hitting civilian targets creating more support for UKR. They can't hold ground.
i could be wrong but infrastructure - particularly electricity - hasn't seemed to be a prime russian target til now. that could be strategically important.
Thats a dangerous game for the Russians to play because their core infrastructure is pretty exposed as well. Unless Putin plans to put their entire country on lockdown and set up road blocks every 25 miles, Ukranian sabatours could have a field day.
tommyjohn
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These "suicide drones" are from Iran?

Now Israel wants to supply weapons to Ukraine.

Another "proxy war" for Iran/Israel...not a good development for lowering the temperature.

Imagine these drones versus the rockets fired at Israel. Cannot imagine Israel allowing Iran to keep pumping these things to Putin unabated.
aunuwyn08
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Please stop posting that Twitter account, they're circulating classified information.
Waffledynamics
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chickencoupe16
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If they're truly posting classified info, posting it here doesn't change anything. 1, it will be stopped soon enough. 2, it will be pulled from Twitter and thus here. 3, anyone who cares already has screenshots.
aezmvp
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tommyjohn said:

These "suicide drones" are from Iran?

Now Israel wants to supply weapons to Ukraine.

Another "proxy war" for Iran/Israel...not a good development for lowering the temperature.

Imagine these drones versus the rockets fired at Israel. Cannot imagine Israel allowing Iran to keep pumping these things to Putin unabated.
You probably missed it earlier in the thread (it's a big thread, easy to do), but Iran isn't just supplying them, they have technical advisors on the ground in the field and they're getting extremely valuable feedback and experience. Around 10-15 Iranians were killed at an airbase in the Kherson area with this stuff when they were hitting Odessa.

The Russians allowing the Iranians in to work on tactics, operational capacity and improving these drones will likely speed up the improvement of their next gen, especially against air defense zones. You're seeing 2nd gen tech right now. That's what is spurring this 100%. Israel is not going to sit idle why the Iranians get a jump on this sort of tech and it's application.

As a red team here I could think of all kinds of interesting ways to hit fixed positions and defense nets with this stuff.
aunuwyn08
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chickencoupe16 said:

If they're truly posting classified info, posting it here doesn't change anything. 1, it will be stopped soon enough. 2, it will be pulled from Twitter and thus here. 3, anyone who cares already has screenshots.


Your entire argument chain is wrong. I assume you know nothing about classified information and spillage based upon it. Take this conversation offline with me.
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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chickencoupe16
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aunuwyn08 said:

chickencoupe16 said:

If they're truly posting classified info, posting it here doesn't change anything. 1, it will be stopped soon enough. 2, it will be pulled from Twitter and thus here. 3, anyone who cares already has screenshots.


Your entire argument chain is wrong. I assume you know nothing about classified information and spillage based upon it. Take this conversation offline with me.


Not really a chain, rather a list. 2 comes after 1 but 3 comes both before and after 1. 3 is already done by many people. Hell, I even thought about taking screenshots for ****s and giggles.

I'm not terribly interested in moving offline, hell, that's why I am here and not using my real name.
FamousAgg
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Rossticus said:





Cry harder russia

You made your bed, sleep in it
Waffledynamics
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Rossticus
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Thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1582044513274822656.html
JFABNRGR
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Yeah I don't think that pilot is going to get a hero's welcome.

That is at least 4 crashes that I can think of since the invasion started.
Yeysk is right across the sea from Mariupol.....shot down, blown up, or crashed matters not to me.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
aezmvp
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Re: Belarus

I think this is closer to accurate. I think they're bluffing. I don't you're going to get to Kyiv without 100,000 good men dedicated just on that front with full mechanized support. I just don't think they have the officer, armor, artillery and ability to do it. The Ukes can't ignore it but I doubt Lushie is dumb enough to do this. It would 100% lead to a massive domestic issue and he has LOTS of security worries. He doesn't trust his military and secret police forces and while this isn't a East/West thing like existed in Ukraine particularly before 2014, if body bags start coming back in significant numbers there isn't a way for him to feel secure. Belarus' military is considered poor even by what we've seen out of the RuAF.

aezmvp
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Beat me to it!
EastSideAg2002
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Now would be a good time for the Israelis to get some field experience with their laser system. And maybe some industrial sabotage within iran as well.
Rossticus
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The Fife
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JFABNRGR said:

Yeah I don't think that pilot is going to get a hero's welcome.

That is at least 4 crashes that I can think of since the invasion started.
Yeysk is right across the sea from Mariupol.....shot down, blown up, or crashed matters not to me.
I believe this loss makes 15 overall out of 140 production tail numbers for this model.
JFABNRGR
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aezmvp said:

tommyjohn said:

These "suicide drones" are from Iran?

Now Israel wants to supply weapons to Ukraine.

Another "proxy war" for Iran/Israel...not a good development for lowering the temperature.

Imagine these drones versus the rockets fired at Israel. Cannot imagine Israel allowing Iran to keep pumping these things to Putin unabated.
You probably missed it earlier in the thread (it's a big thread, easy to do), but Iran isn't just supplying them, they have technical advisors on the ground in the field and they're getting extremely valuable feedback and experience. Around 10-15 Iranians were killed at an airbase in the Kherson area with this stuff when they were hitting Odessa.

The Russians allowing the Iranians in to work on tactics, operational capacity and improving these drones will likely speed up the improvement of their next gen, especially against air defense zones. You're seeing 2nd gen tech right now. That's what is spurring this 100%. Israel is not going to sit idle why the Iranians get a jump on this sort of tech and it's application.

As a red team here I could think of all kinds of interesting ways to hit fixed positions and defense nets with this stuff.
Iran never wastes an opportunity to fight (inc supply the fight) and or learn to fight better, in any global hotspot where they might get to kill or hurt Americans, Israeli's, or those who support either of us.

We should have put a major hurt on them during Iraq when they were blowing us up.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
aezmvp
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JFABNRGR said:

aezmvp said:

tommyjohn said:

These "suicide drones" are from Iran?

Now Israel wants to supply weapons to Ukraine.

Another "proxy war" for Iran/Israel...not a good development for lowering the temperature.

Imagine these drones versus the rockets fired at Israel. Cannot imagine Israel allowing Iran to keep pumping these things to Putin unabated.
You probably missed it earlier in the thread (it's a big thread, easy to do), but Iran isn't just supplying them, they have technical advisors on the ground in the field and they're getting extremely valuable feedback and experience. Around 10-15 Iranians were killed at an airbase in the Kherson area with this stuff when they were hitting Odessa.

The Russians allowing the Iranians in to work on tactics, operational capacity and improving these drones will likely speed up the improvement of their next gen, especially against air defense zones. You're seeing 2nd gen tech right now. That's what is spurring this 100%. Israel is not going to sit idle why the Iranians get a jump on this sort of tech and it's application.

As a red team here I could think of all kinds of interesting ways to hit fixed positions and defense nets with this stuff.
Iran never wastes an opportunity to fight (inc supply the fight) and or learn to fight better, in any global hotspot where they might get to kill or hurt Americans, Israeli's, or those who support either of us.

We should have put a major hurt on them during Iraq when they were blowing us up.
Look the most interesting strategic move the US has made in the last 50 years was basically ringing Iran with US troops and bases after 9/11. Go look at a map and look at all the new deployments and areas we were after the Iraq invasion. And then we did nothing and let the ISI and the Iranians @#$& with us for a decade. It's completely unforgivable waste of our men and resources. Should have absolutely knocked the hell out of them before they got to this point. That country is unstable as hell and will have nukes and access to one of the most important waterways on the planet. Stupid.
fordmd
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Rossticus said:

Thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1582044513274822656.html

He makes good points. Invasion from Belarus is highly complicated by the Polesian marshes which have been geographical barriers in the prior World Wars and even further history. Attacks over vast wetlands with the vehicles seen in the videos doesn't seem a sound strategy...
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Not a Bot
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Just a quick correction to one of those tweets. These drones are not good for targeting vehicles. The warhead is fine for that but they are pre-programmed to target fixed structures. They cannot be reprogrammed in-flight or be human guided and do not have a sensor adequate to track and target a moving object. This is one of the reasons they are so cheap.

All they are is a cheap flying wing frame with a cheap engine designed to stay aloft from point A to point B. The only somewhat complicated aspect of these drones is when they get close to a target they speed up and drop in that direction. They are using very cheap and widely available computer chips and motherboards, likely obtained second hand. I'm not saying a raspberry pi could necessarily guide one of these things and control it, but it's possible. They are very uncomplicated machines.
74OA
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fordmd said:

Rossticus said:

Thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1582044513274822656.html

He makes good points. Invasion from Belarus is highly complicated by the Polesian marshes which have been geographical barriers in the prior World Wars and even further history. Attacks over vast wetlands with the vehicles seen in the videos doesn't seem a sound strategy...
Plus, Ukraine has been fortifying the approaches to Kiev for the last six months, is far better armed than it was before and now takes US warnings seriously.

IMO, this is a feint to tie down Ukrainian forces in the north.
74OA
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Kiev under renewed terror air attacks. KAMIKAZE
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