***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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10:52p, 10/16/22
Hitting Kyiv again.





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Malachi Constant
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In reply to Demosthenes81 • 10:59p, 10/16/22
AG
Demosthenes81 said:
Ulysses90 said:
The ATACMS missile also launches at an offset to the direction of the target. After it launches it makes a sharp turn toward the target and accelerates and climbs. This makes it more difficult for the enemy to get a counterbattery fix on the launcher location because a simple regression would generate a firing solution that it a long way from where the launcher was actually located.


I wonder what nameless schmoe came up with that idea. It is so elegant you know it didn't come from an officer or senior manager.


Without a doubt. But you know for sure the officer or senior manager took credit for it.
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Not a Bot
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11:04p, 10/16/22
AG
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Rossticus
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In reply to Not a Bot • 11:13p, 10/16/22
There's nothing Russia loves more than attacks on civilian soft targets. They get off on that like nobody's business.
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Rossticus
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11:59p, 10/16/22


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Rossticus
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11:59p, 10/16/22


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Smeghead4761
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:18a, 10/17/22
Rossticus said:
More museum pieces in the wild.

Interesting that the shooter doesn't appear concerned about return fire. I assume that's because he's out of range of anything that could shoot back at him, or at least he thinks he is. Firing a big weapon like that, with the muzzle blast it's making, would draw return fire in short order, especially since he just keeps firing from the same position. (I was always taught to never pop up more than twice in the same spot, and don't even do that much if you can avoid it.)

And if he's out of range of effective return fire, since he's just using iron sights, he probably just spraying rounds at a large target that doesn't move, like a building or section of trench. The fact that he doesn't appear to spend much, if any, time scanning for targets also seems to me to indicate he's shooting at something that's just sitting in once spot. Suppressive or harassing fire, at best.
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Rossticus
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12:27a, 10/17/22
Don't remember if this has been posted yet.

Thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1581381393581428736.html

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Smeghead4761
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12:56a, 10/17/22
Interesting speculation that maybe we're wrong about the purpose of the "cope cages" on Russian tanks.

https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52971

TLR - he's wondering if maybe they're a defense against UAV dropped munitions, rather than top-attack ATGMs.
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Rossticus
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1:07a, 10/17/22
Ukraine really needs to find a better solution to Russia spamming civilian centers with these Iranian POS drones.







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Rossticus
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1:49a, 10/17/22

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Rossticus
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1:53a, 10/17/22
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Rossticus
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2:20a, 10/17/22


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Rossticus
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2:34a, 10/17/22
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Rossticus
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2:45a, 10/17/22
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txaggie02
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7:01a, 10/17/22
AG
Got a feeling these Iranian drones are gonna be a major issue for Ukrainian. Even if they can shoot 75% of them down, Russian reportedly has thousands, so the can launch dozens each day at key military and critical infrastructure targets.
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rgag12
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In reply to txaggie02 • 7:11a, 10/17/22
AG
txaggie02 said:
Got a feeling these Iranian drones are gonna be a major issue for Ukrainian. Even if they can shoot 75% of them down, Russian reportedly has thousands, so the can launch dozens each day at key military and critical infrastructure targets.


I agree, Ukraine/the west are going to have to quickly, and cheaply, come up with a way to handle these inexpensive kamikaze drones and missiles Iran is mass producing. If they can't it could prove to be a perceived pivot point in the war like the introduction of HIMARS were
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RikkiTikkaTagem
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In reply to rgag12 • 7:20a, 10/17/22
AG
rgag12 said:
txaggie02 said:
Got a feeling these Iranian drones are gonna be a major issue for Ukrainian. Even if they can shoot 75% of them down, Russian reportedly has thousands, so the can launch dozens each day at key military and critical infrastructure targets.


I agree, Ukraine/the west are going to have to quickly, and cheaply, come up with a way to handle these inexpensive kamikaze drones and missiles Iran is mass producing. If they can't it could prove to be a perceived pivot point in the war like the introduction of HIMARS were


You would think of the Israelis could hack into an Iranian nuclear plant like they did with Stuznet, they or us could hack into the whatever the drones are using for our advantage.
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bonfarr
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7:21a, 10/17/22
AG
While the drones cause panic and fear in the civilian populace I wouldn't consider the drones a major issue in the war. It is just like the Nazi V2 rocket attacks on Britain, no real military threat but causing havoc in the cities.

The Ukes do need to figure out how to defend their utility infrastructure from them though since the damage to power supply will cause some major suffering. Do the drones only fly low altitude? Would they be able to knock down a good percentage of them with AA guns and man pads layered around the power plants?
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this post reflect the opinions of Texags user bonfarr and are not to be accepted as facts or to be accepted at face value.
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akaggie05
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In reply to RikkiTikkaTagem • 7:22a, 10/17/22
AG
Apologies if it's already been discussed, but do these kamikaze drones even have a data link to hack, or are they pre-programmed to hit specific coordinates? If the latter, the only real defense other than shooting them down would be GPS / GLONASS jamming (and then hope they don't have backup inertial nav).
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sclaff
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7:30a, 10/17/22
AG
The threat from the north


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Ag In Ok
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In reply to sclaff • 7:34a, 10/17/22
AG
That would be hilarious if redubbed with the Benny hill theme or circus music. Would make much more sense.
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Eliminatus
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7:36a, 10/17/22
AG
CRAM systems would be perfect for the suicide drone problem. High rate of success but they are very resource intensive. Wonder if that system has been identified in talks with the Ukes and their needs.
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agcrock2005
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In reply to sclaff • 7:39a, 10/17/22
AG
Lol. Not a military guy but that's hilarious.
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bonfarr
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In reply to sclaff • 7:43a, 10/17/22
AG
sclaff said:
The threat from the north




I think I saw that same show in Vegas years ago.
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this post reflect the opinions of Texags user bonfarr and are not to be accepted as facts or to be accepted at face value.
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ChoppinDs40
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8:00a, 10/17/22
revvie
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In reply to bonfarr • 8:00a, 10/17/22
AG
bonfarr said:
sclaff said:
The threat from the north




I think I saw that same show in Vegas years ago.
Hope you didn't pay too much for the tickets.
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Waffledynamics
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8:06a, 10/17/22
AG
On a more serious note from Belarus:

Quote:
Belarusian Defense: 400 Russian tanks, armored vehicles and troop carriers join our joint forces


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/17-october-belarusian-defense-400-russian-tanks-armored-vehicles

Could those tanks leaving Belarus just have been sent for upgrades and returned?
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benchmark
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8:09a, 10/17/22
AG
Excellent ISW review explaining why recapturing Ukrainian territories is so important for it's long term self-defense and financial independence ... and to prevent Ukraine from remaining a suppliant of the West.

ISW: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, OCTOBER 16
Quote:
Ukraine also requires the liberation of the areas mentioned above for purely strategic military and economic reasons. ISW continues to assess that Putin's intentions toward Ukraine are unlikely to change whether or not a ceasefire or some other settlement occurs. The Kremlin would use any suspension of hostilities to consolidate its gains and freeze the frontline in the best configuration Putin can get to prepare for future coercion and aggression against Ukraine. Those seeking enduring peace in Ukraine must resist the temptation to freeze the lines of combat short of Ukraine's international borders in ways that set conditions for renewed conflict on Russia's terms. The purpose of this brief essay is to consider why specific parts of Ukrainian territory still under Russian occupation are so important for the long-term viability of an independent Ukraine that is not a financial ward of the international community and can effectively defend itself against a renewed Russian invasion.
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AlaskanAg99
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8:40a, 10/17/22
AG
For loitering drones, missiles are too expensive to shoot them down. Radar directed guns are a better idea. But not sure if the US has any systems like this?
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Zobel
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:45a, 10/17/22
AG

re: Gerry Doyle's tweet
Quote:
they're not going to drop a bridge or level a building or destroy a power plant. they seem well-suited for terrorizing population centers, however
you don't need to destroy a power plant to neutralize it. 40 kg warhead is more than enough to shut down a plant for months. that's probably one of the best targets for something like this.
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one MEEN Ag
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9:04a, 10/17/22
AG
The best counter against drones is drones.

The Ukrainians (or western allies) need to come up with a just as cheap, but faster, drone that can get in the air, and go kamikaze itself as a kinetic strike against that drone at a distance. These attack drones don't perform any evasive maneuvers while under attack. They just go along a pre-programmed route and then dive.

Its an asymmetrical cost function. You can always shoot them down with radar plus surface to air missiles but thats three orders of magnitude more expensive.

Also, if you can't beat em, join em. It won't be long before Ukraine has made their own version to go mass harass Russian logistics.

If you want to go more old school, you're going to see the return of anti-aircraft flak cannons with proximity fuses.

There is also the Phalanx that the US military uses to shot down incoming RPGs and missiles. Might have to be retooled for loitering drones.

(Edit: this is a simulation video of the Phalanx system.)

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aezmvp
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In reply to one MEEN Ag • 9:14a, 10/17/22
one MEEN Ag said:
If you want to go more old school, you're going to see the return of anti-aircraft flak cannons with proximity fuses.
If you watch video of one of the Shaheeds going in you can see a whoooole lot of tracer AA fire in the sky. The AA fire probably older stuff but those drones are slow enough that a more modern set of radar slaved AA arty/guns could do a better job. Only so much of that out there and able to get in theatre however.
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GAC06
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In reply to one MEEN Ag • 9:15a, 10/17/22
AG
Fake video
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one MEEN Ag
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In reply to aezmvp • 9:20a, 10/17/22
AG
aezmvp said:
one MEEN Ag said:
If you want to go more old school, you're going to see the return of anti-aircraft flak cannons with proximity fuses.
If you watch video of one of the Shaheeds going in you can see a whoooole lot of tracer AA fire in the sky. The AA fire probably older stuff but those drones are slow enough that a more modern set of radar slaved AA arty/guns could do a better job. Only so much of that out there and able to get in theatre however.
I 100% agree. The issue is time to develop and integrate into a radar. In the short term, it'll be better to just have crews get good at using AA guns. I have no idea if the ukrainians are using timed fuses or proximity fuses, but proximity fuses absolutely increased the ability for the US to effectively shoot down aircraft during WW2.

If you wanted to get crazy, you could have a distributed shared radar and a distributed shared AA system, all linked up like the art for artillery app.
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