***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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AgLA06
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 2:39p, 10/15/22
AG
Ag In Ok said:
Odds to me are high that Putin threatened him personally when they talked. Not professionally, personally.


Probably along the lines of "either stop or don't stand close to windows" and "We'll guarantee X billion dollars worth of Starlink purchases if you stop".

He's right though. Why should NATO and the USA only subsidize military contractors when Starlink is arguably one of the most important items of technology that ensures communication for the entire country? I guarantee no one else is doing it free, let alone at cost.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to RikkiTikkaTagem • 2:50p, 10/15/22
AG
RikkiTikkaTagem said:
74OA said:
Private PoopyPants said:
If that move is intended to threaten Kiev with another offensive, good luck with that.

Ukraine has spent the last six months fortifying the approaches to Kiev and is far better armed now, too.


If the Russians do attack and this attack doesn't have the latest and greatest technology that the Russians carry and isn't well thought-out and coordinated, then I really do think Russia is done with this war.

I could see them just trying to hold the line in the East with anything and everything just to keep the UAF at bay while they setup a haymaker coming in from the north. Kyiv is about a hundred miles or so from the border with Belarus so maybe the Russians think they can blitz the north with their most modern elements and take Kyiv and end this war.

I don't think it would work that way in reality. Ukraine nationalism and patriotism is at a fever pitch so even if Kyiv got captured it wouldn't be the end of the war. Add in the asymmetrical weapons of warfare Ukraine has along with increased air defense will likely put up plenty of resistance against another, even well thought out, invasion from the north. I could just see the haymaker type plan being pitched and approved by Putin.

If it's conscripts and T62s leading the charge, they might as well surrender and sue for peace.
there are no conventional haymakers forthcoming from russia.....

They have already attempted to push on to Kviv with a hell of a lot more troops and equipment than they have now from three directions and including a massive air assault on Homstel airfield which is only 27Km from Kviv city center.

.......more like a Hail Mary.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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TRM
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In reply to RikkiTikkaTagem • 2:58p, 10/15/22
AG
Quote:
I could see them just trying to hold the line in the East with anything and everything just to keep the UAF at bay while they setup a haymaker coming in from the north. Kyiv is about a hundred miles or so from the border with Belarus so maybe the Russians think they can blitz the north with their most modern elements and take Kyiv and end this war.
That's merely a feint as Russia will launch a massive counteroffensive from Kherson.
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74OA
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3:03p, 10/15/22
AG
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pdc093
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3:08p, 10/15/22
https://apnews.com/article/russia-military-range-shooting-volunteer-soldiers-attack-8dbb8c55dbdd4f10f1042ab7f045dff0
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aggiehawg
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In reply to pdc093 • 3:10p, 10/15/22
AG
Quote:
Two volunteer soldiers on Saturday fired at other troops at a Russian military firing range near Ukraine, killing 11 and wounding 15 others, before getting killed, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

The ministry said in a statement that the shooting took place in the Belgorod region in southwestern Russia that borders Ukraine. It said that the two volunteers from an unnamed ex-Soviet nation fired on other soldiers during target practice and were killed by return fire.

The ministry called the incident a terrorist attack.

The shooting comes amid a hasty mobilization ordered by President Vladimir Putin to beef up Russian forces in Ukraine a move that triggered protests and caused hundreds of thousands to flee Russia.

Putin said on Friday that over 220,000 reservists already had been called up as part of an effort to recruit 300,000.
From your link
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JB!98
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:36p, 10/15/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
Two volunteer soldiers on Saturday fired at other troops at a Russian military firing range near Ukraine, killing 11 and wounding 15 others, before getting killed, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

The ministry said in a statement that the shooting took place in the Belgorod region in southwestern Russia that borders Ukraine. It said that the two volunteers from an unnamed ex-Soviet nation fired on other soldiers during target practice and were killed by return fire.

The ministry called the incident a terrorist attack.

The shooting comes amid a hasty mobilization ordered by President Vladimir Putin to beef up Russian forces in Ukraine a move that triggered protests and caused hundreds of thousands to flee Russia.

Putin said on Friday that over 220,000 reservists already had been called up as part of an effort to recruit 300,000.
From your link
So would this be considered a Red on Red situation?
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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In reply to EastSideAg2002 • 3:36p, 10/15/22
AG
EastSideAg2002 said:
74OA said:
Today's SITREP.
JFC...Like a video game



For you experienced guys, is there ANY reason you can think of that those russkies keep walking into the field of fire? Aside of dumbassery.

Person Not Capable of Pregnancy
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aggiehawg
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4:12p, 10/15/22
AG
Quote:
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Turkey and Russia have instructed their respective energy authorities to immediately begin technical studies on a Russian proposal that would turn Turkey into a gas hub for Europe.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has floated the idea of exporting more gas through the TurkStream gas pipeline running beneath the Black Sea to Turkey after gas deliveries to Germany through the Baltic Sea's Nord Stream pipeline were halted.

Erdogan said Russian and Turkish energy authorities would work together to designate the best location for a gas distribution center, adding that Turkey's Thrace region, bordering Greece and Bulgaria appeared to be the best spot.
Quote:
So how will NATO handle this proposal? It's going to be awkward no matter how this plays out. Europe needs Russia's natural gas, but nobody wants to admit it. We're supposed to be punishing Russia, not further enhancing their profits (which seem to be holding up nicely despite all of the sanctions and economic warfare).

But Turkey is still technically an ally and a member of NATO. Nobody ever said that Europe couldn't purchase natural gas from them, right? So the gas can be pumped to Europe, who will pay the money to Turkey. They will then pass the money to Putin after Erdogan skims his cut off of the top. Easy peasy, right? Is this a foreign policy discussion or an episode of The Sopranos?
Via Hot Air

So as a part of strategy, does Russia still get the money?

From same link.

Quote:
But now a new option has been put on the table. Russia and Turkey have begun talks to establish a natural gas "hub" under Turkey's control which could provide needed energy to NATO allies while not directly giving the money to Russia. Watching the international politics of this maneuver play out should prove highly interesting to anyone who has been paying attention to this ongoing drama.
How would that work?
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74OA
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4:14p, 10/15/22
AG
Elon is not losing money on the Starlink to Ukraine deal. He's trying to make himself look like some benefactor. Not only is the US DoD paying tens of millions, but Ukrainians are also paying a monthly fee.
1) The US DoD paid 3x retail price for the terminals.
2) From CNN:
Quote:
Quote:
According to the SpaceX figures shared with the Pentagon, about 85% of the 20,000 terminals in Ukraine were paid or partially paid for by countries like the US and Poland or other entities. Those entities also paid for about 30% of the internet connectivity
3) Charities and individuals are picking up the rest.

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JFABNRGR
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In reply to Tony Franklins Other Shoe • 4:14p, 10/15/22
AG
Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:
EastSideAg2002 said:
74OA said:
Today's SITREP.
JFC...Like a video game



For you experienced guys, is there ANY reason you can think of that those russkies keep walking into the field of fire? Aside of dumbassery.


At that range and likely other conditions favorable to shooter, they have no clue what is happening or certainly where shots are coming from. Also likely first time being engaged by sniper and lack training on how to deal with it.

I think there may even be return fire from orcs but its at 90 degrees from sniper hide.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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AgLA06
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 4:25p, 10/15/22
AG
If it's to be believed, he's shooting from 3/4 of a mile. At night. Most likely suppressed based on the quality of the setup. They'd have no clue what or from where was engaging them.

There's also an assumption he's making hits. Not likely. It's just as likely the orcs are taking evasive action or hitting the deck when a large caliber round whistles past.
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lb3
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In reply to Tony Franklins Other Shoe • 4:27p, 10/15/22
AG
It's nighttime so maintaining situational awareness is probably difficult. If the rounds are subsonic by 1200m, they may not even suspect bullet wounds being the cause for why these people keep falling.

A little experience and training would go a long way in this situation.
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MaroonStain
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In reply to 74OA • 4:54p, 10/15/22
AG
74OA said:
Elon is not losing money on the Starlink to Ukraine deal. He's trying to make himself look like some benefactor. Not only is the US DoD paying tens of millions, but Ukrainians are also paying a monthly fee.
1) The US DoD paid 3x retail price for the terminals.
2) From CNN:
Quote:
Quote:
According to the SpaceX figures shared with the Pentagon, about 85% of the 20,000 terminals in Ukraine were paid or partially paid for by countries like the US and Poland or other entities. Those entities also paid for about 30% of the internet connectivity
3) Charities and individuals are picking up the rest.


Q


Elon knows how to work the FedGov Congress critters. We...started Tesla and his other endeavors. "We" being taxpayers.
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benchmark
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6:28p, 10/15/22
AG
Good thread unroll: Here

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MaroonStain
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In reply to benchmark • 6:56p, 10/15/22
AG
benchmark said:
Good thread unroll: Here



#16 - "...Ukraine has better intelligence..." I hope so because it's US and every other country against orcs.
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bonfarr
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In reply to MaroonStain • 7:19p, 10/15/22
AG
MaroonStain said:
benchmark said:
Good thread unroll: Here



#16 - "...Ukraine has better intelligence..." I hope so because it's US and every other country against orcs.


50-65k Russian shells lobbed per day in May-June? How is that possible? Even if they had hundreds of artillery pieces in the field I don't see how that could be accurate.
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this post reflect the opinions of Texags user bonfarr and are not to be accepted as facts or to be accepted at face value.
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AgLA06
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In reply to bonfarr • 7:24p, 10/15/22
AG
Then you should go back a couple of pages and read how it doesn't even compare to the artillery rounds fired between Iraq and Iran.

It basically made fun of Russia's horrible logistics that hamper their ability to perform even near the rate of middle eastern countries.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:44p, 10/15/22
Waffledynamics said:
Just want to make a "thank you" post to Rossticus for coming back to this thread and doing great work with the updates. We've been keeping up the best we can, but you are an invaluable contributor. Thank you, and don't go anywhere again!


I appreciate it. Lots of contributors to this thread who bring unique insight and make it what it is. I just try to supply info where I can.
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Rossticus
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7:49p, 10/15/22
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Rossticus
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7:49p, 10/15/22
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Rossticus
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7:51p, 10/15/22
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Rossticus
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7:53p, 10/15/22
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Rossticus
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7:56p, 10/15/22
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Rossticus
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8:01p, 10/15/22
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Waffledynamics
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8:09p, 10/15/22
AG


The utter despair and bewilderment of the Russian propagandist host at 10:34 is a thing of beauty. Rob interjects a few times, but watch for a while. Absolutely brutal.

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TheGroupGuy
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8:45p, 10/15/22
I think if Belarus comes into the war Poland does and NATO.
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Rossticus
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8:55p, 10/15/22
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wildmen09
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In reply to TheGroupGuy • 8:59p, 10/15/22
AG
TheGroupGuy said:
I think if Belarus comes into the war Poland does and NATO.


For what reason?
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to TheGroupGuy • 9:03p, 10/15/22
AG
TheGroupGuy said:
I think if Belarus comes into the war Poland does and NATO.
Russia is likely embedding their own troops within the Belarusian ones. It's not worth the risk.
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Waffledynamics
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9:03p, 10/15/22
AG
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Waffledynamics
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9:03p, 10/15/22
AG
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 9:15p, 10/15/22
What is up with that?
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Htownag11
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 9:16p, 10/15/22
AG
Agthatbuilds said:
What is up with that?


Nuke
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black_ice
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 9:18p, 10/15/22
Agthatbuilds said:
What is up with that?


Nuke possibly
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