***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,587,708 Views | 47807 Replies | Last: 9 hrs ago by ABATTBQ11
Rossticus
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EastSideAg2002
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74OA said:

Today's SITREP.
JFC...Like a video game



Waffledynamics
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Just want to make a "thank you" post to Rossticus for coming back to this thread and doing great work with the updates. We've been keeping up the best we can, but you are an invaluable contributor. Thank you, and don't go anywhere again!
Waffledynamics
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GAC06
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Ag In Ok said:

This may the the first war where fighters surrender to a drone.


Nope. Thirty years late. Iraqis surrendered to drone directing 16 inch fire from Missouri in 1991
Waffledynamics
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Take this with a grain of salt.



Edit: seeing more reports in OSINT channels of indeed a renewed Ukrainian attack on the Kherson region.

Corroboration from LiveUAMap:

Quote:

Russian media reporting clashes resumed at Beryslav direction in Kherson region
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-october-russian-media-reporting-clashes-resumed-at-beryslav

Waffledynamics
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aezmvp
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Waffledynamics said:


All those mines screams winter area control area denial.
mickeyrig06sq3
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aezmvp said:

Waffledynamics said:


All those mines screams winter area control area denial.

Probably going to mine the hell out of the Belarusian border.
Waffledynamics
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Welp, that's one milblogger that's gonna die.

Waffledynamics
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Cyber warfare:

Not a Bot
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lb3
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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

aezmvp said:

Waffledynamics said:


All those mines screams winter area control area denial.

Probably going to mine the hell out of the Belarusian border.
Those are artillery launched mines with self destruct timers. It doesn't say which variant they are getting but one variant self destructs in hours and another self destructs in days.

I doubt they will be used near Belarus.

I see these artillery deployed mines being used to mine transportation routes behind the front lines to prevent resupply, reinforcements, and retreat as part of an offensive campaign. Traditional mines will be used to mine the border.
JFABNRGR
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GREAT LISTEN to Brit who has been fighting for Ukraine for a very long time. Originally spent 4 years in British Army than volunteered in combat spots around the world. His family was in Bucha when the invasion started.

"I think its an incredible waste of value for an experienced western volunteer to pick up a rifle and go to the front line when they can train 1000 Ukrainians"

"technology is winning this war it doesn't matter if you have thousands of tanks they are going to get chewed up by Javelins, NLAWs, etc"

"I am more scared of artillery, you can hear it coming in and have more time to **** your pants, I learned in Syria you have no time to **** your pants your dead against CAS. Don't worry about what you can't control" in reference to nuke potential.

"Ukranians have the will and now they have been given the equipment and training"

Note summarized quotes.





“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Ulysses90
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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

aezmvp said:

Waffledynamics said:


All those mines screams winter area control area denial.

Probably going to mine the hell out of the Belarusian border.
I doubt that they will be using those RAAMs to mine the Belarusian border. FASCAM is useful when you are trying to seal an area from escape or reinforcement on a fluid battlefield.

Artillery employed mines have a self-destruct timer. There are long duration (>24 hours) and short duration (<24 hours) but they are designed to be short term minefields. Manually emplaced mines are far more effective for the long term because they can be buried, camouflaged, and mapped for later removal.
JFABNRGR
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Another great listen from the 93rd in the Artillery lines.

"Think of good things and the scary things will go away"

A definite difference between cleanliness between UKR bunkers and orc bunkers.

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
74OA
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Russian public morale is steadily dropping as mobilization brings the war home to the majority who were able to put it on ignore till now.

WAILING
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74OA
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Private PoopyPants said:


If that move is intended to threaten Kiev with another offensive, good luck with that.

Ukraine has spent the last six months fortifying the approaches to Kiev and is far better armed now, too.
DCPD158
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Private PoopyPants said:


Those recent, western trained, 10k Ukraine troops that just finished their training in UK will be waiting for that push from Belgrade. Going to be a bloodbath
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
GAC06
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Belarus. Belgrade is in Serbia and doesn't border Ukraine
aggiehawg
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Russians can't catch a break.
Burrus86
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aggiehawg said:



Russians can't catch a break.

Good!
2wealfth Man
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Belarus is really going to facilitate this? They've gone mad or ceded control to Moscow.
DCPD158
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GAC06 said:

Belarus. Belgrade is in Serbia and doesn't border Ukraine
Yea, auto-correct sucks. Too many "Bel"s in this thread
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
RikkiTikkaTagem
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74OA said:

Private PoopyPants said:


If that move is intended to threaten Kiev with another offensive, good luck with that.

Ukraine has spent the last six months fortifying the approaches to Kiev and is far better armed now, too.


If the Russians do attack and this attack doesn't have the latest and greatest technology that the Russians carry and isn't well thought-out and coordinated, then I really do think Russia is done with this war.

I could see them just trying to hold the line in the East with anything and everything just to keep the UAF at bay while they setup a haymaker coming in from the north. Kyiv is about a hundred miles or so from the border with Belarus so maybe the Russians think they can blitz the north with their most modern elements and take Kyiv and end this war.

I don't think it would work that way in reality. Ukraine nationalism and patriotism is at a fever pitch so even if Kyiv got captured it wouldn't be the end of the war. Add in the asymmetrical weapons of warfare Ukraine has along with increased air defense will likely put up plenty of resistance against another, even well thought out, invasion from the north. I could just see the haymaker type plan being pitched and approved by Putin.

If it's conscripts and T62s leading the charge, they might as well surrender and sue for peace.
txags92
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I hope and expect that Ukraine has lots of surveillance eyes on these assembling troops and is listening to their comms. If or when those troops gather into units and head for the border, I hope the first group across the line gets vaporized by HIMARS and precision artillery strikes as a signal of what awaits the rest of the orcs behind them.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

Add in the asymmetrical weapons of warfare Ukraine has along with increased air defense will likely put up plenty of resistance against another, even well thought out, invasion from the north. I could just see the haymaker type plan being pitched and approved by Putin.
Air superiority would be absolutely essential for any strike on Kiev to succeed, as in take and hold the city.

I'm skeptical that the Russians have the equipment not to mention pilots/operators for drone strikes to do that. Even then their flanks and supply lines with a motorized component (with rail taken out) would be very vulnerable to the Ukes' shoot and scoot operations.
AgLA06
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I'm sorry, but if there is another attack from the the north Belarus shoulder be fair game. And it should be seen as a direct threat to NATO as it borders their members.
AgLA06
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txags92 said:

I hope and expect that Ukraine has lots of surveillance eyes on these assembling troops and is listening to their comms. If or when those troops gather into units and head for the border, I hope the first group across the line gets vaporized by HIMARS and precision artillery strikes as a signal of what awaits the rest of the orcs behind them.


I don't. Let them come and get stretched out like last time for a 100 miles. Then slam the back door and pay per view the destruction of a 10k unit force to the world to humiliate Russia and pay for the ammo.
aezmvp
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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

aezmvp said:

Waffledynamics said:


All those mines screams winter area control area denial.

Probably going to mine the hell out of the Belarusian border.
Not with those. You use those to channel or deny supply routes and flanking. You'd use more traditional non artillery based mines for static defense you can set up in advance. These would be more useful in denying the flank of an advance or in deterring and channeling logistics and movement behind the lines to help spoil/delay enemy counter attacks elsewhere.
Who?mikejones!
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Ag In Ok
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Odds to me are high that Putin threatened him personally when they talked. Not professionally, personally.
mickeyrig06sq3
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aggiehawg said:



Russians can't catch a break.

Yeah they can. That bridge looks pretty broken to me.
aggiehawg
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Nicely played.
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