Today's SITREP.

Rossticus said:

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A UAV used by Belarusian volunteers to drop 120mm mortar rounds.https://t.co/x2YxVvUbOm pic.twitter.com/lPJL3wYXo5

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 13, 2022

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I'm not seeing where this is actually a UAV dropping mortar rounds. Everything is implied - nothing is actually shown.

- picture of mortar round, with tape on it. Actually, to me the thing doesn't even look like it's fuzed.

- video of a UAV taking off and flying. I don't see any mortar rounds on the UAV. Maybe they've got an internal bomb bay, but I doubt it.

- aerial view of an explosion. Nothing showing what caused it.

There's nothing showing the mortar round being attached to the UAV, nothing showing a UAV flying while carrying a mortar round, and nothing showing a UAV actually dropping a mortar round.

Straight up propaganda.

CondensedFogAggie said:

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'Entire subjects are being cut' Russia's schools are hemorrhaging teachers as they flee mobilization

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.... found that Russian teachers, who aren't exempt from the draft, are going into hiding and fleeing the country in droves. Private schools, many of which saw a spike in enrollment this year as families scrambled to avoid the "patriotic" curriculum implemented in public schools this fall, are facing closure. With no other options, students and parents have begun writing directly to politicians, pleading for individual teachers to be made exempt a painful exercise for war opponents, who know that their appeals need to be soaked in praise for Putin and the Motherland to have a chance of being heard.

According to Andrey(a teacher), he's far from the only one getting out of dodge: 80 percent of the teachers at the school where he works intend to leave in the near future, while all of the school's on-staff tutors plan to emigrate (or go into hiding) if they haven't already. As a result, administrators are discussing either relocating the school or closing it altogether.

To make matters worse, he said, more students enrolled in the school than usual this year; with "patriotism lessons" and other political messaging on the rise in public schools, the demand for private ones is up. On the other hand, a lot of students have begun leaving with their parents, many of who are also seeking to evade the draft.

"In many schools, up to 100 - 120 hours of instruction are unfilled each week there's nobody to replace [the teachers who have left]. In some cases, entire subjects are being cut from the schedule. The overall picture is still unclear, but what is clear is that it's not going to be a happy one," said Varlamov.

Russia's mobilization orders don't discriminate based on merit: even some of the country's most "decorated" teachers are being drafted. On September 18, Bashkir language teacher Miras Ishdavletov, who lives in Ufa, won a prize in a nationwide competition for teachers of indigenous languages and literature. A week later, he was named an Honored Teacher of the Republic of Bashkortistan. The following day, he was conscripted.

"We thought maybe it was a mistake, because he doesn't have combat experience," said the teacher's wife, Irina Ishdavletov. "But they took him. Nobody helped us. It upsets me deeply that they treat highly qualified personnel that way. We got married this summer, and we're expecting a baby. I'll be taking maternity leave soon. We both have mortgages, and we took out an auto loan this summer. Now I have to take all this on alone."

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https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/10/12/entire-subjects-are-being-cut

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So their already poor educational system is being broken down. It appears Russia has no thoughts for a future after this war. A very telling sign. All those who are worried about a nuclear war are supported by this action.

However, perhaps Russia finds no value in education of the people, which they have historically indicated. So this may be a continuation of this model that portends nothing but the collapse of Russia coming sooner than expected.

You can see the round attached to the drone at 00:05, Smeghead. It's a rather high expectation to expect that videos of all drops be be expertly produced. We know that rounds are regularly being UAV dropped by Ukraine. To assume that this vid is somehow propaganda when there are numerous others that demonstrate UAV drops to be routine is a bit of an odd leap. Additionally, the source has been consistent. But, maybe you caught Ukraine faking one in 50. *Shrug*

74OA said:

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Very interesting. Skip Biden and listen to what the professor has to say about the public mood in Russia today.

JUST BACK FROM RUSSIA

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Interesting listen. She says 20% for Putin 30% against and the remainder just want to be left alone. Sounds like our country.

The issue is that we don't know what that means in terms of this war. Do Russians have the means to challenge the government? Are they just along for the ride come death or victory?

Here, we understand there is a means to challenge our government via the second amendment. In Russia, I have no idea the mechanism that would drive rebellion.

10thYrSr said:

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74OA said:

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Very interesting. Skip Biden and listen to what the professor has to say about the public mood in Russia today.

JUST BACK FROM RUSSIA

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Interesting listen. She says 20% for Putin 30% against and the remainder just want to be left alone. Sounds like our country.

The issue is that we don't know what that means in terms of this war. Do Russians have the means to challenge the government? Are they just along for the ride come death or victory?

Here, we understand there is a means to challenge our government via the second amendment. In Russia, I have no idea the mechanism that would drive rebellion.

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There it would have to be the military turning against Putin.

When the war first started I remember reading a smart sounding article about how it's really the civil servant middle class that would determine anything along those lines. There's around 150,000-ish of these people. They live relatively comfortable compared to the rest of the population, not rich by any means but are able to afford things. So the police officers, firefighters, the people running the electrical plants, rcivil engineers, and also your average government employee like postal workers, people in the tax office, even like the secretaries at the FSB. If those people start feeling the pinch in Moscow and St. Petersburg he's done. A general strike would cripple his government.

They are not going to mobilize these people or their families.

10thYrSr said:

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74OA said:

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Very interesting. Skip Biden and listen to what the professor has to say about the public mood in Russia today.

JUST BACK FROM RUSSIA

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Interesting listen. She says 20% for Putin 30% against and the remainder just want to be left alone. Sounds like our country.

The issue is that we don't know what that means in terms of this war. Do Russians have the means to challenge the government? Are they just along for the ride come death or victory?

Here, we understand there is a means to challenge our government via the second amendment. In Russia, I have no idea the mechanism that would drive rebellion.

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Just wait for Russia to conscript the 30% and the 50% and give them all guns. Eventually, someone will get smart, shoot their officers, and go home.

74OA said:

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Very interesting. Skip Biden and listen to what the professor has to say about the public mood in Russia today.

JUST BACK FROM RUSSIA

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20% support Putin
30% against
50% leave us alone

Very interesting

Thought the commanders are not with the troops....but already ran away....

I suppose it depends on the rank and what they mean by "commander."

I put the skeptical/look into it emoji

Agthatbuilds said:

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I suppose it depends on the rank and what they mean by "commander."

I put the skeptical/look into it emoji

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Seems plausible though.

Drone vs drone warfare. The future is now. (Ukrainian drone reportedly won.) https://t.co/MTDZeoC9r0

— Nolan Peterson (@nolanwpeterson) October 13, 2022

Agthatbuilds said:

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Drone vs drone warfare. The future is now. (Ukrainian drone reportedly won.) https://t.co/MTDZeoC9r0

— Nolan Peterson (@nolanwpeterson) October 13, 2022

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Hang some fishing line from the bottom of your drone and fly right over the top of the other drone. It will tangle in the rotor and crash them. I guess you would need a release mechanism or something so that it doesn't pull you down also

japantiger said:

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Rossticus said:

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Here are today's control-of-terrain maps for #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats

Click here to see our interactive map, updated daily: https://t.co/tXBbur1lgd pic.twitter.com/MI98l2OKox

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) October 12, 2022

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How has this map changed in the last 4 months? A quick glance looks like it's looked for several months.

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In the East, the Ukrainians have gained a lot of ground -- the blue area is quite large -- but the great significance of this is that they are now in position to cut key Russian lines of communications, or already have done so. The Russians have a hard time moving anything except by rail, so if you take out their rail lines, they become an immobile, ill supplied target. They have also stopped the Russians short of the area where Ukraine's large (and up to now, untapped) shale gas fields are located, which was a prime target for Putin.

In the South, the Russians have a large force on the right (North) bank of the Dnipro River around Kherson. There are only two permanent bridges across the Dnipro in this region--one just east of Kherson and other other over the hydroelectric dam about 30 miles upriver, both of which have been damaged (the hydroelectric dam is apparently passable for civilians but not heavy equipment). The Ukrainians are now about 15 miles away from the hydroelectric dam. If they cut off that bridge for the Russians, and get to the other side, they can cut off the canal that runs through the Isthmus of Perekop down into Crimea, almost all the way to the Kerch Straight. This canal is evidently a crucial water supply for Crimea; without it, most of Crimea (it's mostly farmland until you get way down to the south) really isn't viable, as the Russians found when they occupied the peninsula in 2014 (and the Ukrainians dammed the canal).

Agthatbuilds said:

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“Russian soldiers mobilized near Kherson killed the commander who prevented them from surrendering”

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) October 13, 2022

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Perfect. The next POW swap ought to be a 3:1 or better exchange in UKR favor for these guys.

That's a pretty liberal definition of vehicle when you lump heavy cruisers in

GarryowenAg said:

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BREAKING: Israel is providing Ukraine with basic intelligence about the Iranian drones used by Russia. A private Israeli firm is also providing Ukraine with satellite imagery of Russian troop positions, senior Israeli official - NYT

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 13, 2022

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whats Puttie gonna do about this? F with the Israelis? I doubt it

Here is the full reply from the UK Defence Secretary, speaking as he entered @NATO HQ for a defence ministerial:
"There isn’t a risk because unlike Russia, who has already isolated itself and we saw that yesterday at the United Nations vote, they need a supply chain.

2/

— Deborah Haynes (@haynesdeborah) October 13, 2022

"We have the ability to refurbish or indeed manufacture a new supply chain which is what we are doing right now. The UK-Danish joint-led international fund is all about placing orders in a manufacturing space to make sure we can go on in '23, '24 and keep going on."

4/4

— Deborah Haynes (@haynesdeborah) October 13, 2022

This will strengthen intra-NATO air defence capabilities and further restrict Russia's willingness to test Article 5

Finland spoke about an intra-European air defence network yesterday but admitted it would play a minimal role in it

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) October 13, 2022

fullback44 said:

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GarryowenAg said:

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BREAKING: Israel is providing Ukraine with basic intelligence about the Iranian drones used by Russia. A private Israeli firm is also providing Ukraine with satellite imagery of Russian troop positions, senior Israeli official - NYT

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 13, 2022

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whats Puttie gonna do about this? F with the Israelis? I doubt it

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Maybe not, but I could see him getting his ME cronies to do it.

Poland handed over 150 Starlink terminals to Ukraine, — the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine.

Starlink terminals were installed, in particular, in Izyum, Balakliya, Kupyansk and nine more liberated cities of Kharkiv region. pic.twitter.com/iiqZHW3fqa

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) October 13, 2022

Russian proxy in Kherson Vladimir Saldo urges residents to evacuate to Russian soil

A sign of a major Ukrainian breakthrough in Kherson

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) October 13, 2022

NEW: The goals of the "special military operation" in Ukraine are unchanged, but they can be achieved through negotiations, Kremlin says - Izvestiya

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 13, 2022

For those who still wonder how Europe could possibly find itself in its current position, allow me to offer an example.

This is what passes for statesmanship from the President of France. https://t.co/weIRysjUkR

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) October 13, 2022

“Our (nuclear deterrence) doctrine rests on the fundamental interests of the nation...they are defined clearly and wouldn’t be directly affected at all if, for example, there was a ballistic nuclear attack in Ukraine, in the region."
2/

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) October 13, 2022

After coming under criticism for his remarks, this (IMO) is his attempt to defend that comment. Which has me wondering why FR bothered to rejoin NATO in the first place if it really believes nuclear weapons use in Europe by Russia doesn't impact its interests.
4/4

— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) October 13, 2022