I thought NATO couldn't admit a nation with an active border dispute.

I have no idea.

Ukraine will eventually be in nato because Russia keeps invading them. Maybe not during this fight but probably shortly thereafter.

That was a big boom!

Ag In Ok said:

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I thought NATO couldn't admit a nation with an active border dispute.

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They can. But that dispute wouldn't be eligible for an Article 5 claim.

ETA: This could be an opening for negotiations. Since Article 5 would be off the table during the conflict, joining the NATO alliance becomes a security guarantee only after a negotiated truce is signed. Knowing Russia won't be able to take another bite at the apple a few years from now after rebuilding their military, might make signing away Crimea a bit more palatable.

Israeli intelligence firm @ImageSatIntl has detected an "irregular presence" of Russian TU-160 and TU-95 strategic bombers deployed to Olenya Airbase https://t.co/fuqNsWiOc8 via @AAhronheim pic.twitter.com/9u4RXu1swy

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) September 30, 2022

Message diffusé par les forces ukrainiennes aux militaires russes à #Lyman #ukraine : vous êtes encerclés...votre gouvernement vous prend pour de la chair à canon...vos amours vous attendent à la maison...rendez-vous. https://t.co/yPcHAHunWr

— Domipré (@domipre2016) September 30, 2022

The US believes the process for Ukraine joining NATO “should be taken up at a different time,” NSA Sullivan says, after the country applied for membership under an “accelerated procedure.”

— Kylie Atwood (@kylieatwood) September 30, 2022

#BREAKING US to announce 'immediate' weapons support for Ukraine 'next week:' Sullivan pic.twitter.com/HBpiNCjlMc

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) September 30, 2022

#Breaking 🚨🚨UN Security Council votes on US- Albania Resolution to condemn Russia’s annexation of part of Ukraine ⁦@CBSNews⁩ | UN

Yes 10
No 1 Russia
Abstentions 4

Reso fails bc of Russia veto, goes to General Assembly https://t.co/0mAlfLtJTo

— Pamela Falk CBS News Correspondent United Nations (@PamelaFalk) September 30, 2022

Israel has played pretty neutral until lately when Russia tried to close a Jewish embassy in Moscow. Now they seem to be providing more intelligence to Ukraine and the west.

P.U.T.U said:

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Israel has played pretty neutral until lately when Russia tried to close a Jewish embassy in Moscow. Now they seem to be providing more intelligence to Ukraine and the west.

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It did not help that the Russian defense minister said that Israel was full of Nazi sympathizers. I believe that minister quickly backtracked from that statement but soon after Israel started sending supplies to Ukraine.

Waffledynamics said:

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#Breaking 🚨🚨UN Security Council votes on US- Albania Resolution to condemn Russia’s annexation of part of Ukraine ⁦@CBSNews⁩ | UN

Yes 10
No 1 Russia
Abstentions 4

Reso fails bc of Russia veto, goes to General Assembly https://t.co/0mAlfLtJTo

— Pamela Falk CBS News Correspondent United Nations (@PamelaFalk) September 30, 2022

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"Oh no! Condemnation. What will we ever do?"

EastSideAg2002 said:

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I also think getting in bed with Iran for drones did not help the russian cause with Israel.

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Russia has always been in bed with Iran, they have been selling weapon systems for decades to Iran. Most intelligence says they work together on nuclear and bioweapons programs as well. Once the USSR fell Iran started recruiting scientist. But Israel knows this but does not fall for the broken logic of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", hence why Israel and Russia supported different sides in Syria but got into very few engagements with each other.

Really need to get the Ukranians some modern tanks, more HIMARs, and more precision artillery. This seems to be a war that will be won on the ground.

EastSideAg2002 said:

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I also think getting in bed with Iran for drones did not help the russian cause with Israel.

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It's not just that, but it is also that Iran has support personnel and advisors on the ground inside occupied Ukraine working on this. ~15-20 were killed near Kherson the other day in a strike. It'd be one thing if the Iranians were just selling them the stuff, but the people on the ground getting real feedback for improvements is probably a pretty big deal for Israel. Wouldn't be surprised if they passed some targeting data along in those instances.

aezmvp said:

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EastSideAg2002 said:

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I also think getting in bed with Iran for drones did not help the russian cause with Israel.

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It's not just that, but it is also that Iran has support personnel and advisors on the ground inside occupied Ukraine working on this. ~15-20 were killed near Kherson the other day in a strike. It'd be one thing if the Iranians were just selling them the stuff, but the people on the ground getting real feedback for improvements is probably a pretty big deal for Israel. Wouldn't be surprised if they passed some targeting data along in those instances.

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This is what I mean by the Israel not happy with Iran's involvement. Increased weapons experience and more success for russia would only mean more opportunities for Iran.

EastSideAg2002 said:

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aezmvp said:

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EastSideAg2002 said:

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I also think getting in bed with Iran for drones did not help the russian cause with Israel.

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It's not just that, but it is also that Iran has support personnel and advisors on the ground inside occupied Ukraine working on this. ~15-20 were killed near Kherson the other day in a strike. It'd be one thing if the Iranians were just selling them the stuff, but the people on the ground getting real feedback for improvements is probably a pretty big deal for Israel. Wouldn't be surprised if they passed some targeting data along in those instances.

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This is what I mean by the Israel not happy with Iran's involvement. Increased weapons experience and more success for russia would only mean more opportunities for Iran.

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What is Iran really doing outside of some drones?

Iran has copied the S300 and S400 missile systems, came up with the EFP that killed thousands of Americans in Iraq, several SRBMs and long range missiles, and several ground vehicles. They are focused mainly on drones since for the most part Iran does not fight you head on, they are experts at using proxies

AlaskanAg99 said:

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EastSideAg2002 said:

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aezmvp said:

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EastSideAg2002 said:

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I also think getting in bed with Iran for drones did not help the russian cause with Israel.

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It's not just that, but it is also that Iran has support personnel and advisors on the ground inside occupied Ukraine working on this. ~15-20 were killed near Kherson the other day in a strike. It'd be one thing if the Iranians were just selling them the stuff, but the people on the ground getting real feedback for improvements is probably a pretty big deal for Israel. Wouldn't be surprised if they passed some targeting data along in those instances.

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This is what I mean by the Israel not happy with Iran's involvement. Increased weapons experience and more success for russia would only mean more opportunities for Iran.

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What is Iran really doing outside of some drones?

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They're supporting/supervising usage which means they're also getting combat experience with them in an active war zone. That's hard experience to reproduce in a training setting and only a few countries world wide can effectively do so. This will significantly improve their performance in the field in any scenario against Israel and there is significant evidence that they've put a lot of these types of loitering munitions into Syria and Lebanon. Next time things get frisky over there I suspect Iron Dome will be having to defend against these. Anything that makes them more effective is no bueno.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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EastSideAg2002 said:

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aezmvp said:

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EastSideAg2002 said:

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I also think getting in bed with Iran for drones did not help the russian cause with Israel.

---

It's not just that, but it is also that Iran has support personnel and advisors on the ground inside occupied Ukraine working on this. ~15-20 were killed near Kherson the other day in a strike. It'd be one thing if the Iranians were just selling them the stuff, but the people on the ground getting real feedback for improvements is probably a pretty big deal for Israel. Wouldn't be surprised if they passed some targeting data along in those instances.

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This is what I mean by the Israel not happy with Iran's involvement. Increased weapons experience and more success for russia would only mean more opportunities for Iran.

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What is Iran really doing outside of some drones?

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Russia is probably sharing real world lessons learned in all the platforms they've sold to Iran over the years

1/ What we witnessed today in Putin’s speech, before signing the illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory was nothing short of setting the stage for future operations and enabling Russia’s narrative. Putin will escalate before backing down, especially have that speech.

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) September 30, 2022

The Israeli Government has ordered that all Active/Reservist Military Personal that have Joint Russian-Israeli Citizenship or that are currently in Russia for any reason to leave while commercial options are still available and return to Israel.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 30, 2022

Increasing concern that dual nationals will not have their rights protected and will be drafted into the Russian army.

Russian Military equipment allegedly heading to Crimea. pic.twitter.com/SjE3GA1H2A

— Aldin 🇧🇦 (@tinso_ww) September 30, 2022

SwigAg11 said:

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It did not help that the Russian defense minister said that Israel was full of Nazi sympathizers.

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Of all the dumb**** statements in this world where there's a **** ton of dumb**** statements....

The Russian threats of using nuclear weapons are taking on the grind towards inevitability that marked the start of this war. It would feel so much less shocking than say 9/11 at this point. The Russians will breach a rule of warfare that stood for 77 years and their rhetoric will be "we warned you," "you provoked us," and "you used them first," as they attempt to conquer a non-hostile state by turning it to ash.

The dictator playbook does have a cynical beauty to it:

1) Invade country
2) Annex occupied territory that you are losing the ground on militarily using in fake referendum to claim the locals want that.
3) then use that for your domestic political propaganda to portray the country that you invaded (and the Countries supporting them) as the actual aggressors and invaders; you are the one forced to defend and protect your own territory and citizens.

And yes because of the tight control of the media and the propaganda machine over there, probably at least half the population in Russia will believe all of the above and believe that it is all about Russia sovereign territory being attacked by the Nazi leadership in Kiev and their Western puppet masters.

TriAg2010 said:

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The Russian threats of using nuclear weapons are taking on the grind towards inevitability that marked the start of this war. It would feel so much less shocking than say 9/11 at this point. The Russians will breach a rule of warfare that stood for 77 years and their rhetoric will be "we warned you," "you provoked us," and "you used them first," as they attempt to conquer a non-hostile state by turning it to ash.

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UNLIKELY

Today's SITREP.

Update on HIMARS strikes last week in Svatove area last week will follow soon, seems more then five 🇷🇺 supply area's where destroyed in a few days. Probably to make it impossible for forces in Lyman to be re-inforced and prepping the battlefield.

— NLwartracker (@NLwartracker) September 30, 2022

#Ukraine: A modern Russian Msta-SM2 152mm self-propelled howitzer was captured by the Ukrainian army in #Kharkiv Oblast. pic.twitter.com/pUbG0QrE82

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 30, 2022

Another apparently fully intact Russian T-80BVM captured by Ukrainian troops. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/n8bPSenupG

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) September 30, 2022

#Ukraine: Ukrainian forces captured a Russian T-72B3 tank with a KMT-6 mine plough in #Donetsk Oblast. pic.twitter.com/PCvjwm06em

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 30, 2022

#Ukraine: More Russian losses in the East; an abandoned T-72B with ERA stripped (Two trucks also at the same site), and a T-72B3. pic.twitter.com/i4gbQ1Eda0

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 30, 2022

We'll put them to much better use, Russia