Territorial Defense Units being formed in Cities as far North as St. Petersburg is not a good sign at all, this indicates to me that either Russia is preparing to send almost all of its Reservists into Ukraine or they are expecting “Hostile Action” within Russia Proper. https://t.co/OJZqptBY9X

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 30, 2022

GarryowenAg said:

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Interesting clarification by Zelensky

Zelensky, today: “De facto, we have already made our way to NATO … Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure.”

“We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO.”

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) September 30, 2022

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Well guess it was true. Stoltenberg with a press conference coming up. Will see if this was a coordinated application.

My guess is that at 7 pm Kyiv time, @antonioguterres will condemn the Russian annexation or Ukraine’s territories, and @jensstoltenberg will say NATO is to consider Ukraine’s application to join.
Hopefully.

— Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 30, 2022

I imagine they need a ton more vehicles than have been provided. Keep in mind horses were still heavily used in WW2 even though there were obviously mechanized means of transportation.

GarryowenAg said:

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Interesting clarification by Zelensky

Zelensky, today: “De facto, we have already made our way to NATO … Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure.”

“We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO.”

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) September 30, 2022

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Yeah but I think this significantly increases the risk of the use of tactical nuclear weapons. While that might seem drastic it is the next step in an escalate to deescalate situation. If this mobilization fails, and especially if it fails badly, then if I'm in Putin's shoes this is the most reasonable next step and is significantly more reasonable that chemical or biological warfare.

I think before the NATO application chances of use were maybe 10% or so. Now I think it's higher. I wouldn't want to live anywhere near a major supply area or logistics link. Maybe someplace like Krasnopavlivka. Lots of rail hubs, major highway cross section between Kharkiv, Dnipro right in the middle of the rear for actions through out the region and a small population. Otherwise maybe nearer the battlefield? Not sure if they would do one or several tactical nukes at once. My guess is several but it's very tough to think like they do.

Would make a great commercial. I just assumed these guys were scouts or Spec forces that needed to
Scoot quickly. Like our seals and their dune buggies and dirt bikes.

lb3 said:

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Nissan should be using these videos in their Navara commercials.

To make it more thread friendly, the fact the Ukes are still using retail pickups for troop transport instead of all the donated armored vehicles leads to more questions than answers. Has their armor/HMMWVs/MRAPs been destroyed, or do they still not have enough purpose built vehicles? Is it an issue of not being able to supply diesel fuels along transport routes?

On that note, can anyone tell from that video whether the Navara/Frontier is gas or diesel?

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I think the use of pickups by the Ukrainians is to take advantage of their speed and mobility, particularly in a break through situation. As somebody also noted, they may not have enough "armored" vehicles to accommodate all of their troop movements. It kind of reminds me of all of the Toyota pickup pictures we saw coming out of the Russian-Afghanistan war. Unfortunately, those pickups were "repurposed" by terrorist organizations after that war ended.

lb3 said:

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Nissan should be using these videos in their Navara commercials.

To make it more thread friendly, the fact the Ukes are still using retail pickups for troop transport instead of all the donated armored vehicles leads to more questions than answers. Has their armor/HMMWVs/MRAPs been destroyed, or do they still not have enough purpose built vehicles? Is it an issue of not being able to supply diesel fuels along transport routes?

On that note, can anyone tell from that video whether the Navara/Frontier is gas or diesel?

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The answer is that they do not have enough purpose built vehicles. They're also seeing dozens if not hundreds of vehicles being bought and donated to them from private individuals as well. You just can't have enough vehicles to transport troops, ammo, food/water, supplies and evac wounded in these areas. Yes having the private vehicles also lets them take advantage of non-diesel supplies in the area as well even though a fair number are diesel vehicles.

Technicals have been a part of non-standard armies for decades. Their heavy use here is unsurprising. Both sides are extensively using civilian transport in their logistics trains.

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg will host a Press Conference at 1800 CEST today that will more than likely discuss the Illegal Russian Annexation that has taken place today and also Ukraine’s Fast-Tracked Application to join the NATO Alliance.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 30, 2022

"We must defend Russian culture from western colonialist hegemony"

*sings ripoff of a TikTok sea shanty meme from two years ago* pic.twitter.com/s25RnSs2va

— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 30, 2022

Fitch said:

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NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg will host a Press Conference at 1800 CEST today that will more than likely discuss the Illegal Russian Annexation that has taken place today and also Ukraine’s Fast-Tracked Application to join the NATO Alliance.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 30, 2022

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Just saw that. I wonder if NATO would admit Ukraine and declare that any nuclear strike would constitute a reason to invoke Article V? I'm not saying we should go along with this but knowing our State Department, that's something that could come out of Foggy Bottom.

Good summary of the speech if you click through the linked tweets…

I've watched a lot of Putin speeches over the last 10-15 years and this is the most anti-US one by a really long way.

If I were a western policymaker wondering if he'd really use nuclear weapons – and he hasn't even got to them yet – I'd be very concerned. pic.twitter.com/3lXMRH4YkI

— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 30, 2022

Guess we will see here shortly. Seems to have been kept under wraps. Somewhat doubtful it's a surprise move by Ukraine to spring on NATO.

Then there's this - not that a Senator has any true say here, but posturing and timing is clearly sending a message:
https://www.c-span.org/amp/video/?c5033549

Quote:

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South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham warns that if Russia were to detonate a nuclear weapon inside Ukraine, it should be considered an attack on NATO itself because of the inevitable spread of radiation to neighboring countries following such an attack, and he says the response should be "catastrophic to Russia."

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Fitch said:

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"We must defend Russian culture from western colonialist hegemony"

*sings ripoff of a TikTok sea shanty meme from two years ago* pic.twitter.com/s25RnSs2va

— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 30, 2022

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To be fair, to me, it sounds like a tune is from a Russian Ballet from the 20s. You can hear the tune at the 20 second mark. So not sure what point he's trying to mak.

lb3 said:

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Nissan should be using these videos in their Navara commercials.

To make it more thread friendly, the fact the Ukes are still using retail pickups for troop transport instead of all the donated armored vehicles leads to more questions than answers. Has their armor/HMMWVs/MRAPs been destroyed, or do they still not have enough purpose built vehicles? Is it an issue of not being able to supply diesel fuels along transport routes?

On that note, can anyone tell from that video whether the Navara/Frontier is gas or diesel?

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They need a lot more vehicles than what they have. They've gotten vehicles in the hundreds, but bear in mind we had 20,000 MRAPs built for Iraq and Afghanistan, plus other transport vehicles

The song is Soon May the Wellerman Come

Apparently it is a folk song from New Zealand, but no one really knows exactly when it came from. First documented in the 60's, but it was around well before then. Kind of something everyone knows but never writes down.

2/6 i) “The Nord Stream gas pipelines were blow up by the USA.” The practical consequences are that Russia is now “entitled” to respond in kind, Russia is not responsible for stopping energy supplies to Europe, & Gazprom may not have to pay for missed deliveries. pic.twitter.com/kHgmQ2VP23

— Alexander Baunov (@baunov) September 30, 2022

4/6 Since all four annexed regions are only partially controlled by Russian troops, this is an announcement that conventional warfare will continue unless the Russian ultimatum is followed. The same ultimatum was issued on the eve of Russia’s invasion in February. pic.twitter.com/TR8AT6jsF6

— Alexander Baunov (@baunov) September 30, 2022

6/6 Guess who the precedent is for? The implication is that Russia is better than the US, it won’t drop atomic bombs without military necessity—but what if such a need arises? It’s practically an announcement of things to come. pic.twitter.com/cQ32mwGIjh

— Alexander Baunov (@baunov) September 30, 2022

Fitch said:

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Guess we will see here shortly. Seems to have been kept under wraps. Somewhat doubtful it's a surprise move by Ukraine to spring on NATO.

Then there's this - not that a Senator has any true say here, but posturing and timing is clearly sending a message:
https://www.c-span.org/amp/video/?c5033549

Quote:

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South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham warns that if Russia were to detonate a nuclear weapon inside Ukraine, it should be considered an attack on NATO itself because of the inevitable spread of radiation to neighboring countries following such an attack, and he says the response should be "catastrophic to Russia."

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Yeah not a big LG fan. I think he's a ******. But I think this is exactly how Poland would interpret this. Romania maybe too.

How did they even find that?

Not necessarily current tactics but a great thread on the calls made home to Russia very early on.

Intercepted phone calls made by Russian soldiers during the first days of the Ukraine invasion, obtained by @nytimes, provide damning accounts of battlefield failures, contempt for leadership and the execution of civilians. Our new investigation: https://t.co/B6s4rA6BAA pic.twitter.com/tNUwx47o7S

— Evan Hill (@evanhill) September 28, 2022

It's like the hulk throwing a dumpster full of m67s at the poor target(s).

What's the blast radius of that thing? I imagine it spreads out before splashing.

Pretty devastating…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1575822859662159873.html

Putin's speech in non-Twitter format

Going to be interesting to see how with these poorly funded and trained conscripts they are going to fare in winter. I'm conflicted, can't decide whether the longer this goes the better for Ukraine or not. Does anyone have any idea what the total Ukrainian forces strength are at now?

RONA Ag said:

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Going to be interesting to see how with these poorly funded and trained conscripts they are going to fare in winter. I'm conflicted, can't decide whether the longer this goes the better for Ukraine or not. Does anyone have any idea what the total Ukrainian forces strength are at now?

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Good enough that they have publicly stated that they do not require increased mobilization at this time. I'd be surprised if there were actual numbers available.

Experts discuss the potential for Putin going nuclear.

Interesting warning by US Embassy in Moscow-
https://warisboring.com/americans-urged-to-flee-russia-to-avoid-being-conscripted-into-the-war-in-ukraine/

Quote:

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The advice came from the US Embassy in Moscow, which released the announcement on Tuesday.
"Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals' US citizenship, deny their access to US consular assistance, prevent their departure from Russia, and conscript dual nationals for military service," the embassy warned.
The embassy went on to note that it has become increasingly difficult to leave Russia, as flights have become packed and border checkpoints are overrun.
Those residing or traveling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain," the embassy's statement read.

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