Proc92 said:

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I could see Putin setting off some small form of wmd on Russian border territory or Belarus to provide a reason to kick off a small nuke retaliation on Kiev if things keep going south.

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Let's hope if Putin is stupid enough to call for a wmd strike that that will instead be the trigger for his removal. One person being stupid enough to become the world's villain is believable. All the people in the chain from decision to execution of a launch hopefully there enough realism there to know that would only ensure failure.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svt-avslojar-tva-explosioner-intill-nord-stream

"The gas leaks on Nord Stream 1 and 2 are being investigated by the German state as deliberate attacks. Now SVT can reveal that measuring stations in both Sweden and Denmark registered strong underwater explosions in the same area as the gas leaks on Monday.

- There is no doubt that these are blasts or explosions, says Björn Lund, lecturer in seismology at the Swedish National Seismic Network, SNSN.

The triple leaks on Nord Stream 1 and 2 on Monday are being investigated as probable sabotage.

Now SVT can reveal that the Swedish National Seismic Network detected two clear explosions in the area on Monday. One of them had a magnitude of 2.3, similar to a perceptible earthquake, and was registered at measuring stations throughout the country."

cone said:

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regardless, energy infrastructure sabotage is now on the table

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It's been on the table for months. They have shelled the area around the nuke plant to the point where it can't get any power in or out. They have militarized the plant and used it to protect military vehicles and personnel.

wessimo said:

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Apparently there are three separate leaks. These are the locations pic.twitter.com/sCA8tI6pnY

— Lion Hirth (@LionHirth) September 27, 2022

Whodunnit? Seems unlikely the Russians would have motive.

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If you were to sabotage those lines, the leak locations are almost the perfect place to do it.

• In international waters outside anyone's jurisdiction
• Dual charges on the main line and one on the bypass

The only thing missing would be one additional charge on the main line just before rejoining the bypass. Then again, it wouldn't become visible if it existed until the main line was repaired upstream.

I've been extremely critical of those that constantly go "BUT THE NUKES".

This might be the time to question that if it was indeed sabotaged. So I guess my question is, false flag to give them the excuse or did we (any western country capable) just call their bluff and slap them down like a *****.

While I think cutting off the funds to Russia is a good thing, I feel a little bad for those idiots in Europe depending on this gas to stay warm. But then again they made this bed, time to sleep in it.

Knowing that this was almost certainly sabotage, makes me wonder what other kinds of crap "the powers that be" will be pulling. Obviously this whole war is being used to the advantage of some, and it's definitely not going to benefit you and me…

Quote:

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Belarusian railways improving infrastructure to receive military echelons - monitor group

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/27-september-belarusian-railways-improving-infrastructure

Interesting map in the link.

Quote:

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Ukrainian military in liberated Ridkodub village

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/27-september-ukrainian-military-in-liberated-ridkodub-village

This is about 22 km North of Lyman. Ukraine is pushing eastward. Really thinking they make encircle Lyman and are putting pressure on Russia to withdraw.

AgLA06 said:

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I've been extremely critical of those that constantly go "BUT THE NUKES".

This might be the time to question that if it was indeed sabotaged. So I guess my question is, false flag to give them the excuse or did we (any western country capable) just call their bluff and slap them down like a *****.

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It reminds me of the movie speed. "Shoot the hostage", so that the hostage taker loses his leverage.

wessimo said:

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Apparently there are three separate leaks. These are the locations pic.twitter.com/sCA8tI6pnY

— Lion Hirth (@LionHirth) September 27, 2022

Whodunnit? Seems unlikely the Russians would have motive.

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I disagree. This is the last escalation the Russians have on the energy front. This basically says "you took too long to lift sanctions you're ****ed this winter and there's no fixing it" to Europe. It's an act of absolute desperation from Russia. The only card Putin has left now is nuclear weapons. I think a complete Russian collapse in very short order is absolutely in the cards. We will see what happens.

The US and Europe would never do this. It puts Europe in an even more tenuous energy situation for years to come.

note to all: Discussion of the strategic implications of the gas line failure will be allowed but please stay on the thread topic

Waffledynamics said:

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Quote:

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Belarusian railways improving infrastructure to receive military echelons - monitor group

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/27-september-belarusian-railways-improving-infrastructure

Interesting map in the link.

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I think Putin would need to take full control of Belarus. Their military seems highly opposed to intervention and theyve had a lot internal unrest.

wessimo said:

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Apparently there are three separate leaks. These are the locations pic.twitter.com/sCA8tI6pnY

— Lion Hirth (@LionHirth) September 27, 2022

Whodunnit? Seems unlikely the Russians would have motive.

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It could be the Russians. It's probably not good to allow sea water into your pipelines so Germany may be forced to continually feed these leaks from their stockpiles or lose the pipeline forever.

That would drive Natural Gas prices to the moon and they could be begging Russia to open the taps on the Russian side to keep feeding the leaks.

I think Russian control of information and social media in particular is a big problem for them. Once Ukraine punched through a bit of front line, if they can run some light forces into the secondary areas, word seems to spread fast on the Russian side via informal communications and social media that they are threatened with being encircled or cut off and no plan or response seems to arrive to direct them how to react, so they mostly just run or retreat back to a safer area. There appears to be a lack of capable leadership at the tactical level and control and use of communication to react to sudden changes with proper responses. That may be a systemic issue, and if that is not worked out, Ukraine will be able to continuously exploit that.

I don't know how Russia can resolve that in the middle of the war. There is not time to train and implement changes to deal with slow information flow and improper tactical reactions to having flank and rear security threatened. There's no time to develop better leadership in the field.

NSFW: Leg is broken on purpose

Mobilization in Russia is going just swell I see.

WARNING:

This is painful to watch

A Russian man purposefully breaks his friends leg in order to avoid mobilization

Kyiv in 72 hours with morale this high! pic.twitter.com/lJX4cBmyiC

— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) September 27, 2022

NOPE, almost got me…

Quick overview of the current battlefield situation. UPDATE

MouthBQ98 said:

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I think Russian control of information and social media in particular is a big problem for them. Once Ukraine punched through a bit of front line, if they can run some light forces into the secondary areas, word seems to spread fast on the Russian side via informal communications and social media that they are threatened with being encircled or cut off and no plan or response seems to arrive to direct them how to react, so they mostly just run or retreat back to a safer area. There appears to be a lack of capable leadership at the tactical level and control and use of communication to react to sudden changes with proper responses. That may be a systemic issue, and if that is not worked out, Ukraine will be able to continuously exploit that.

I don't know how Russia can resolve that in the middle of the war. There is not time to train and implement changes to deal with slow information flow and improper tactical reactions to having flank and rear security threatened. There's no time to develop better leadership in the field.

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When it comes to military tactics I am admittedly a rank amateur. How hard would it be right now to consolidate command into one five star general to coordinate all of Russia's war effort? I've heard that their command structure is severely fragmented, and it seems a very obvious step from the outside is to have a consolidated chain of command so that everyone is at least using the same playbook. It might be too little too late, but who knows.

This also might be completely stupid amateur outlook, but with the size of the conscription army about to go to Ukraine, I think it actually helps Russia a lot. Small victories just by sheer volume increase morale, and experience tends to be a much better teacher than the classroom. The Russians that survive will not be the incompetent lottery winners, they'll be the high speed soldiers that will be much more difficult to defeat. But I am willing to be called out for being an idiot if this is a stupid take.

The new guys are quitting at the 1st chance they get.

I am Pashkov Vladimir, born 1977, drafted by the Moscow Voyenkomat on September 21, 2022 to the Russian army. I came to Kupinsk to kill nationalist battalions.
When I got here, I realized that there were no battalions.

— Lyja Lietus (@lyja_lietus) September 27, 2022

MouthBQ98 said:

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Huge force consumes vast amounts of logistical resources. If they are untrained, they will be slow, make many mistakes, have poor morale, and break easily under pressure. The experienced units around new units won't trust those new units to be reliable.

Russia doesn't have months or years for some of these soldiers to develop. And they are now very lacking in competent and experienced mid grade officers to make sound tactical battlefield decisions.

A bunch of conscription can make things much worse, instead of better, even though on paper there are more forces.

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The more pressure Russia's government puts on its military and civilian population, the closer they get to putting themselves into a situation Czar Nicholas would have been familiar with around 1917.

Combine the hundreds of thousands conscripted along with ever increasing numbers who are fleeing, and this manpower cull will be a massive shock to a Russian economy which is already seriously hampered by a shortage of labor.

OUTFLOW