***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,617,438 Views | 47853 Replies | Last: 12 hrs ago by 74OA
Sq 17
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GeorgiAg said:

Man those Russian executives keep falling off stuff!

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/12/2122531/-Another-Russian-Oil-Executive-Dies-After-Falling-in-the-Ocean



Possibly the wrong place for this kind of conjecture.
How likely are some of these oligarchs faking their own deaths
I would think these guys had millions of dollars stashed and fake identities already set up
Maybe I have watched too many 007 movies
Waffledynamics
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AG
aggiehawg
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AG
Pretty thorough day by day summary of Uke counter-offensive HERE
revvie
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Sq 17 said:

GeorgiAg said:

Man those Russian executives keep falling off stuff!

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/12/2122531/-Another-Russian-Oil-Executive-Dies-After-Falling-in-the-Ocean



Possibly the wrong place for this kind of conjecture.
How likely are some of these oligarchs faking their own deaths
I would think these guys had millions of dollars stashed and fake identities already set up
Maybe I have watched too many 007 movies
Maybe falling off boat and body not being found. Little harder when you fall out of a building and the street below is littered with evidence.
benchmark
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AG
This is why Ukraine needs a few ACTAMS to wreck havoc deep in the Russian rear.

ISW: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, SEPTEMBER 13
Quote:

The Kremlin has adopted narratives that echo longstanding milblogger demands and complaints, suggesting that Putin seeks to appease and win back the critical milblogger community rather than censor it. Russian milbloggers have long complained about the Russian MoD and the military high command, and now the Kremlin state media is openly expressing dissatisfaction with the progress of the war and the lack of situational awareness of events on the ground. Milbloggers are advertising Telegram channels covering frontline developments 24/7 and urging readers to subscribe if they "believe" in Putin.

Kremlin-controlled and Kremlin-influenced media are now openly calling for an intensive missile campaign against Ukrainian civilian critical infrastructure and transit routes, an idea with broad support among many milbloggers. These new calls are a stark departure from the Kremlin's previous line claiming that Russian forces did not target civilian infrastructure, and this new narrative is earning the Kremlin public support among milbloggers. ****sky's statement at the Duma meeting pointing to the disinterest of most Russian civilians in the war echoes frequent milblogger complaints about the harmful side effects of conducting a limited war.
74OA
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AG
Nice overview video of the current situation and how it occurred. REISNER
Waffledynamics
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Who?mikejones!
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Waffledynamics said:




Like the end of ww1. Is there a Lenin out there we could introduce to the situation and cause complete internal collapse?
Aggie Joe 93
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Increased targeting of civilians is the worst thing they can do right now.

How do you increase Ukrainian nationalism, motivate opposition, and increase international support for Ukraine? Target civilians.
ABATTBQ11
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MouthBQ98 said:

It is odd that so much Russian equipment is abandoned in useable, intact condition with apparently little effort to destroy it and deny its use to the enemy.

The Russians must be very poorly trained, in an absolute panic, or perhaps they are hoping if the Ukrainians are made stronger, the war will end more quickly. I think it is most likely the first two. With also maybe the idea that if they slip away with the vehicles still apparently intact, it buys them more time to escape while the Ukrainians must approach with caution until they are sure the vehicles are unmanned.


I think it has more to do with their structure and culture. They don't do anything unless told. See an opportunity? **** that. If an officer doesn't say go, you don't go. If you're being overrun or told to leave, self preservation says GTFO, but if the officers don't say, "Blow up all of the equipment," they're not going to do it. Destroying perfectly good vehicles is how you get arrested by the FSB for treason, regardless of the fact the Ukrainians are about to capture it.

Alternatively, and I kind of doubt this, maybe they just don't have the materials to destroy their equipment. They're running low on everything, so explosives and munitions may not be in large enough quantities to knock out or destroy everything they're abandoning.
74OA
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Who?mikejones!
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hunter2012
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Agthatbuilds said:


A mass mutiny for a military is essentially a coup.
aezmvp
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Agthatbuilds said:


Eh, that sounds like a lot of propaganda. I'd wouldn't put a lot of stock in this.
P.U.T.U
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A lot of the vehicles could be damaged to a point where they needed a lot of repairs by a grenade or RPG, both cheap and normally plentiful. But the Russian soldiers have been rumored to be short of supplies so if I had either and were retreating they are likely saving those for themselves incase they run into any Uke forces.
Who?mikejones!
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Prehaps.
ABATTBQ11
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AG
Both are plausible, and neither would shock me. However, the Russians have been abandoning vehicles with no attempts to disable or destroy then for awhile. Remember the SAM systems and radar abandoned back in March/April that were just left basically intact in a field because the tires got stuck?
CondensedFogAggie
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MouthBQ98
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A simple fire is very efficient for destroying equipment but they're not even doing that. It may just be the military culture that equipment failure happens all the time and they just leave it until it gets recovered and repaired, so they may be doing what they are used to when they can't move something, but I suspect they are hoping the vehicles are good decoys and distract the Ukrainians while they escape on foot.
FriscoKid
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Russia is blowing dams now to try and escape.
AgLA06
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That's probably one of the first competent military things they've done lately.
Waffledynamics
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FriscoKid said:



Russia is blowing dams now to try and escape.


That also sounds like it traps Ukrainians on the wrong side of the river, possibly?

Edit: that might be propaganda. A Google search doesn't even pull up that dam at all. Why would they flood themselves?
YouBet
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74OA said:


I really just appreciate how they back every single video they make with hard rock music. I can really respect that.
FriscoKid
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https://www.google.com/maps/place/Western+Waterfall/@47.8954508,33.2357492,12.25z/data=!4m17!1m9!4m8!1m0!1m6!1m2!1s0x40c52d16cde340c9:0x6d92ffeb773c5f00!2sInhulets+River,+Ukraine!2m2!1d33.2128999!2d47.704887!3m6!1s0x40dad9202d0e422b:0x188c17321af9affb!8m2!3d47.9055683!4d33.2814109!9m1!1b1?hl=en
FriscoKid
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Waffledynamics
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Thank you, that helps make sense. Looking for corroboration.

Edit: Well that sucks.

fullback44
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Agthatbuilds said:


pretty amazing video, you wont see things like that during a war in real life many times. Excellent post
fullback44
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James iis alive an well, hes doing some good work over in the Ukraine, lets pray he stays safe and comes back one day



not sure this link will post properly, but James is thanking a British soldier for their group donating money for the cause
CondensedFogAggie
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Russia preparing for either defeat or compromise. There is 0 chance this wasn't scripted in some way to pacify the nationalists.

fullback44
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74OA said:


Wow, thats pretty touching.. thanks for posting
zooguy96
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Russian TV looks like the set to Deal or No Deal.
I know a lot about a little, and a little about a lot.
PJYoung
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fullback44
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Waffledynamics said:


Lukashenko has to have a butt hole the size of a pin head about right now, if Putin loses and Lukashenko decides he wants to be on NATOs side his own people will skin him alive, he has suppressed his own people for Putin for years.
PJYoung
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JayHowdy!
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PJYoung said:




Don't even start. We have given billions.
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