***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Waffledynamics
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at 2:48, the Deep State map is insane for a particular reason: not many fires detected on the Ukrainian side of things. There are so few fires detected on the Ukrainian side of the lines, while there are more on the Russian side. This is literal fires set by various means, but oftentimes that's from shelling. See for yourself by going here and clicking the flame icon in the bottom left.
Waffledynamics
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https://t.me/grey_zone/14934



Wagner Group propagandist says Russia will leave Balakliya and abandon the city.
agent-maroon
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Waffledynamics said:



Poor ****ing orcs.
Yeah... russia, you do remember who invaded who, right? And you could always give it up and go home.
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lb3
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GarryowenAg said:

BattleGrackle said:

Does the fact that I want to see these videos make me a bad person…
wondering where they are myself.
They're making their way from Telegram over to Twitter, Reddit, etc. The volume of new videos is quite a bit higher than recent norms so it's probably not just a cache of old videos surfacing.

I wish Telegram had a translate function because we have to rely on English speakers to translate and place the videos in context and there is almost always bias involved.
Waffledynamics
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lb3 said:

GarryowenAg said:

BattleGrackle said:

Does the fact that I want to see these videos make me a bad person…
wondering where they are myself.
They're making their way from Telegram over to Twitter, Reddit, etc. The volume of new videos is quite a bit higher than recent norms so it's probably not just a cache of old videos surfacing.

I wish Telegram had a translate function because we have to rely on English speakers to translate and place the videos in context and there is almost always bias involved.
Right click and select "Translate to English".

txags92
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agent-maroon said:

Waffledynamics said:



Poor ****ing orcs.
Yeah.. russia, you do remember who invaded who, right? And you could always give it up and go home.

I would love to see Ukraine request a UNSC meeting on the same date about war crimes and invasion of sovereign countries by UNSC members. Or alternately, just refuse to allow the orc ambassador to the UN to enter the country until they hand over the war criminals that have already been named.
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
lb3
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I see the translate in mobile now. A bit clunky but it works.
ABATTBQ11
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Ulysses90 said:

AgLA06 said:

Ulysses90 said:

Here's the link to that article on the Ukrainian GIS Arta cloud based fire direction app.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1523791050313433088.html

It was by Trent Telenko. The Joint Staff needs to call him out of retirement and hire him to be on the Red Team. His Twitter feed is better than a Tom Clancy novel for the insight he brings to seemingly innocuous or hard to locate information.
This app seems amazing. Something so simple, but effectively cutting edge compared to traditional military capabilities (including ours).

As a former government acquistion program manager I have to just give credit to Telenko for pointing out the most obvious reason that a cloud hosted app like GIS-Arta would never be considered as a solution in the US DoD. There is no need for a Lead Systems Integrator like Lockheed Marton, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, General Dynamics. How do the big guys make any money for their shareholders off of an app that could run innocuously and anonymously from Azure, Google Cloud, or AWS with clients connected over Starlink. That's boring as **** and worse than that, unprofitable.

Perhaps when Ukraine eventually debuts at NATO as a member nation they should just take over the role of Supreme Allied Commander for a few years to teach some lessons about stewardship of resources while under fire. Ike was right.


Well, there upsides and downsides. Russia used an android implant in a Ukrainian artillery app to track Ukrainian artillery positions in 2014. I'm sure they've learned lessons since, but in a conflict at this scale that kind of breach could be catastrophic.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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TheGroupGuy
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Ulysses90 said:

AgLA06 said:

Ulysses90 said:

Here's the link to that article on the Ukrainian GIS Arta cloud based fire direction app.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1523791050313433088.html

It was by Trent Telenko. The Joint Staff needs to call him out of retirement and hire him to be on the Red Team. His Twitter feed is better than a Tom Clancy novel for the insight he brings to seemingly innocuous or hard to locate information.
This app seems amazing. Something so simple, but effectively cutting edge compared to traditional military capabilities (including ours).

As a former government acquistion program manager I have to just give credit to Telenko for pointing out the most obvious reason that a cloud hosted app like GIS-Arta would never be considered as a solution in the US DoD. There is no need for a Lead Systems Integrator like Lockheed Marton, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, General Dynamics. How do the big guys make any money for their shareholders off of an app that could run innocuously and anonymously from Azure, Google Cloud, or AWS with clients connected over Starlink. That's boring as **** and worse than that, unprofitable.

Perhaps when Ukraine eventually debuts at NATO as a member nation they should just take over the role of Supreme Allied Commander for a few years to teach some lessons about stewardship of resources while under fire. Ike was right.


The fire support response times are stunning so much shorter than ours Obidens won't like it tho no JAG approval just eliminate that step FFS.
NoVAag91
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Ulysses90 said:



As a former government acquistion program manager I have to just give credit to Telenko for pointing out the most obvious reason that a cloud hosted app like GIS-Arta would never be considered as a solution in the US DoD. There is no need for a Lead Systems Integrator like Lockheed Marton, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, General Dynamics. How do the big guys make any money for their shareholders off of an app that could run innocuously and anonymously from Azure, Google Cloud, or AWS with clients connected over Starlink. That's boring as **** and worse than that, unprofitable.

Perhaps when Ukraine eventually debuts at NATO as a member nation they should just take over the role of Supreme Allied Commander for a few years to teach some lessons about stewardship of resources while under fire. Ike was right.

Ulysses, I agree in part - that type of solution would almost be impossible for the US/DoD. But as a former DoD guy (ops, research & acquisition) and as a former Raytheon guy, I can tell you the reason we would be challenged to be as innovative today is partially due to FAR, the DFAR and government acquisition processes. We don't take risks - in fact, we spec things to the point of eliminating as much risk as possible (which can be good when you're talking about life/death matters). It does drive cost and schedules.

But it is also the reason we have incredibly accurate systems like HIMARS and HARMs, as expensive as they may be. Emergencies, catastrophes and all-out war will drive innovation. In Vietnam, the introduction of the new Russian SAM systems drove the emergency need for the AF's Wild Weasel program (almost a type of front-runner to today's HARM systems) - a secret contract between the AF and a big contractor, signed on a chalkboard (with a photo for proof) and deployed/operational in less than 90 days. We can do it in a crunch, but it calls for bold leadership.
JFABNRGR
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We have the luxury to do it this way….for now.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Bulldog73
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SIAP, but if this Trent Telenko is at all accurate, the orcs have been bleeding out much worse than the official Ukraine Defense estimates. Much worse.
Quote:

So, multiply Ukraine's 49,800 5 Sept. 2022 number of Russian dead by three for total casualties yields 149,400.

Then multiply 149,400 by 1.2 for the Ukraine MoD casualty conservatism.
11/
And you get a total "Putin's Russian Imperium" casualty count of around ~179,280 to date.
He uses Russian Ministry of Finance death payments to establish Russian deaths, adds published figures for the DNR and extrapolates for the LNR, and doesn't even try too figure in the mercs who have died.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1567575177919078401.html
AlaskanAg99
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Big fear is Putin is being embarrassed and his armies humiliated. He has one last ace, nukes.

Expect an ultimatum. Of which will be nuking Kiev and then other European cities.

The real issue at this point is Russias ability to wage war, or even defense.
Waffledynamics
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Big fear is Putin is being embarrassed and his armies humiliated. He has one last ace, nukes.

Expect an ultimatum. Of which will be nuking Kiev and then other European cities.

The real issue at this point is Russias ability to wage war, or even defense.
Putin knows what happens if he nukes Kyiv. I doubt he goes for that. I would expect him to formally declare war or to find an offramp and slink away pretending like he accomplished something. The Russian State Media is such a fantasy crafter that they could probably help him get away with it.
agent-maroon
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I think Putin will fall out of a window onto a pile of polonium bullets before his contemporaries let him start a nuclear holocaust. Ukraine isn't the existential threat that Putin claims it to be and everybody knows it.
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one MEEN Ag
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Big fear is Putin is being embarrassed and his armies humiliated. He has one last ace, nukes.

Expect an ultimatum. Of which will be nuking Kiev and then other European cities.

The real issue at this point is Russias ability to wage war, or even defense.


We're at the point that if Russia wants to actually launch a nuke they should just bend over and kiss their own ass goodbye.

Ag In Ok
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Imagine what Putin would pay for an intact Himars to wreck and plant at the Zaporizhzhia plant. All to blame the Ukes and the Americans. Man he must want one badly.
AlaskanAg99
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You forget Putin has said a world without Russia isn't a world worth existing. I'm just looking at it through Russian eyes.

He will probably demand an end, while keeping the lands he's taken and in return, turn on the spigot of NG and oil back to Europe.
ABATTBQ11
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Yes, but I'm sure millions of Russians wild agree that a world with Russia but without Russian hegemony is preferable to a smoking crater. So long as Ukraine doesn't go beyond pre-2014 borders, I don't think there's anything to worry abbot.
CS78
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Nukes aren't happening.

I'd be more worried about them trying to carpet bomb Kiev into giving up some eastern territory. I assume they still have that capability? Do we know if Kiev has been able to fortify air defenses in recent months?
jobu93
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I wonder if the time of a one sided total war happening? Russia, In desperation, carpet bombs Kiev and every other Uke city more than 100k people.

Waffledynamics
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CS78 said:

Nukes aren't happening.

I'd be more worried about them trying to carpet bomb Kiev into giving up some eastern territory. I assume they still have that capability? Do we know if Kiev has been able to fortify air defenses in recent months?
Kyiv has massively fortified their air defenses.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/us-air-defense-system-delivery-hopes-to-save-kiev/
Not a Bot
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Not a Bot
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docb
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Russians certainly aren't carpet bombing. They can barely fly near their own front lines.
JFABNRGR
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Big fear is Putin is being embarrassed and his armies humiliated. He has one last ace, nukes.

Expect an ultimatum. Of which will be nuking Kiev and then other European cities.

The real issue at this point is Russias ability to wage war, or even defense.


Just because at the moment it appears russia has lost momentum they are still exacting a heavy toll on the defenders who have already suffered greatly and will for some time. Just in the last days i have seen entire platoons caught in open by orc artillery, no apparent survivors. No shortage of whole squads getting hammered as well.

Putin may have said a world without russia isnt one worth existing but a righteous man would say this world isn't worth living in, if we allow evil to triumph in it.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Not a Bot
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Not a Bot
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Gilligan
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Is Telegram a social media app?
Waffledynamics
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At 0:29, we get an intercepted call between a Russian soldier and a loved one of some kind, a woman. He expresses shame for being there.

At 4:49, he mentions the Ministry of Finance document mentioned earlier in this thread. The estimate by Russia is 48,759 soldiers KIA. Keep in mind, that does not count wounded or PMCs, and we also know that there have been instances in which soldiers have been labeled "missing" when they were actually dead. Russia has squandered so many lives.

At 8:56, we get some footage from Speak The Truth's hired reporters in Eastern Ukraine. He mentions that they were in Bakhmut, and at another point, another journalist says he's in a hotel in Kramatorsk. We see footage from Bakhmut, still a living city. It's just a taste of the work they're going to release. I'm very excited to see more, personally.

We start to get map updates at 18:23. A lot of it has been discussed here already.

At 21:46, Rob mentions that he's read that the Russians advancing on Siversk were repelled. Shortly after, he mentions that fighting in the Bakhmut direction has calmed down, indicating a big stall in the Russians' energy.

He addresses the Kherson region at 23:18, and he discusses the uptick in Ukrainian air force sorties. I don't know why I didn't notice this, but the Ukrainians have indeed crossed the Inhulets river and have established themselves on the eastern side of it.

After this is all over, I won't lie--I want to visit Ukraine at some point. The sheer amount of modern war history will be insanely enticing.
Waffledynamics
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JFABNRGR said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

Big fear is Putin is being embarrassed and his armies humiliated. He has one last ace, nukes.

Expect an ultimatum. Of which will be nuking Kiev and then other European cities.

The real issue at this point is Russias ability to wage war, or even defense.


Just because at the moment it appears russia has lost momentum they are still exacting a heavy toll on the defenders who have already suffered greatly and will for some time. Just in the last days i have seen entire platoons caught in open by orc artillery, no apparent survivors. No shortage of whole squads getting hammered as well.

Putin may have said a world without russia isnt one worth existing but a righteous man would say this world isn't worth living in, if we allow evil to triumph in it.
May those brave souls rest in peace.
black_ice
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I stayed in Odesa for 2 weeks. You will love Ukraine. Especially the beautiful women folk.
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