Just as Tom Clancy predicted in Red Storm Rising. Blowing up the big storage sites forces the Russians to spread the remaining supplies out into smaller sites, which then increases their air defense and security requirements and complicates the logistical chain by requiring more trucks to move them where they are needed. When the orc troops realize they have a river at their back with no bridges across it, a hostile population surrounding them, and their ammo reloads and food shares start running out and/or coming up short when the resupply trucks do get through, it won't take long before that swim across the river starts looking more promising than waiting around to be annihilated in place by precision artillery and drone strikes. I think when the end comes in Kherson, it is going to happen much faster than people expect. Nobody wants to be the last platoon to turn and run when an angry population is looking for somebody to exact revenge upon.AGS-R-TUFF said:Yes and what's really interesting, especially within the occupied territory is…Red1 said:If I was the commander of the Ukrainian Military I would approach the situation like a siege without the castle. Continue shaping operations of causing attrition to the Russian forces. When I think the odds favor us then I would attack with ground forces. Of course, I would order that air power be used.JFABNRGR said:Taking of Kyselivka would put almost all of Kherson in standard artillery range.Waffledynamics said:
Unconfirmed and needs further corroboration:Kherson City Front (September 6)
— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) September 6, 2022
Ukrainian Forces have liberated the settlement of Shmidtove🇺🇦
This is significant because it disrupts a major Russian Defensive Line from North Kherson City to Maksymivka
If this route is retaken Ukraine could attack Kherson City from the North pic.twitter.com/rKFsFTodrF
Control of the T1501 road running NW to SE and then due east to Kherson gives you a lot better control of the Gulf of Dniprovska and eventually weakens the whole tip on the south side that extends toward Odessa. As this T1501 extends towards Kherson I would say its at the upper boundary for effective russian artillery range from the south side of the river.
I suspect in a couple days its going to look like a flotilla of orcs heading south across the Dnipro and some of them getting shot in the back by fsb if there is any left in Kherson.
The $100 question is, what next after Kherson. A HIMARS battery in Kherson effectively gives you target capability over EVERY road from 2014 borders to Kherson. It will not cover the E105 that can supply Melitopul from Crimea. Bridge or barges will have to be rebuilt over the Dnipro to get to Melitopul from the west.
It's becoming virtually impossible for the Russians to conceal their ammo sites. Uke sympathizers, SOF intel plus eyes in the sky appear to be able to successfully id and smoke these targets. As more and more of these munition storage zones go off like the 4th of July, the Russians' will slowly start conceding territory.
Winter is Coming!
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 18 min ago by B-1 83
My favorite Clancy book of them all. It is amazing how some of the things he formulated in 1986 are true for Russia in 2022. I wish he was alive to comment on it. I am going to read it again starting this weekend. It will make the 11th time I have read it.txags92 said:Just as Tom Clancy predicted in Red Storm Rising. Blowing up the big storage sites forces the Russians to spread the remaining supplies out into smaller sites, which then increases their air defense and security requirements and complicates the logistical chain by requiring more trucks to move them where they are needed. When the orc troops realize they have a river at their back with no bridges across it, a hostile population surrounding them, and their ammo reloads and food shares start running out and/or coming up short when the resupply trucks do get through, it won't take long before that swim across the river starts looking more promising than waiting around to be annihilated in place by precision artillery and drone strikes. I think when the end comes in Kherson, it is going to happen much faster than people expect. Nobody wants to be the last platoon to turn and run when an angry population is looking for somebody to exact revenge upon.AGS-R-TUFF said:Yes and what's really interesting, especially within the occupied territory is…Red1 said:If I was the commander of the Ukrainian Military I would approach the situation like a siege without the castle. Continue shaping operations of causing attrition to the Russian forces. When I think the odds favor us then I would attack with ground forces. Of course, I would order that air power be used.JFABNRGR said:Taking of Kyselivka would put almost all of Kherson in standard artillery range.Waffledynamics said:
Unconfirmed and needs further corroboration:Kherson City Front (September 6)
— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) September 6, 2022
Ukrainian Forces have liberated the settlement of Shmidtove🇺🇦
This is significant because it disrupts a major Russian Defensive Line from North Kherson City to Maksymivka
If this route is retaken Ukraine could attack Kherson City from the North pic.twitter.com/rKFsFTodrF
Control of the T1501 road running NW to SE and then due east to Kherson gives you a lot better control of the Gulf of Dniprovska and eventually weakens the whole tip on the south side that extends toward Odessa. As this T1501 extends towards Kherson I would say its at the upper boundary for effective russian artillery range from the south side of the river.
I suspect in a couple days its going to look like a flotilla of orcs heading south across the Dnipro and some of them getting shot in the back by fsb if there is any left in Kherson.
The $100 question is, what next after Kherson. A HIMARS battery in Kherson effectively gives you target capability over EVERY road from 2014 borders to Kherson. It will not cover the E105 that can supply Melitopul from Crimea. Bridge or barges will have to be rebuilt over the Dnipro to get to Melitopul from the west.
It's becoming virtually impossible for the Russians to conceal their ammo sites. Uke sympathizers, SOF intel plus eyes in the sky appear to be able to successfully id and smoke these targets. As more and more of these munition storage zones go off like the 4th of July, the Russians' will slowly start conceding territory.
Winter is Coming!
The aftermath, operator was apparently unhurt but very surprised. pic.twitter.com/ljJXLK3zl2
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 7, 2022
The cope cages are evolving, seen here on a Russian T-72B3 pic.twitter.com/vOmsGAGqPA
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 7, 2022
Balakliya's liberation is huge boost for Ukrainian forces as now they got a good chance to get Izium as well.
— Fuad Alakbarov (@DrAlakbarov) September 6, 2022
The Grey Zone, a Russian war blog, confirmed that Ukrainian forces managed to seize key bridges to allow them to reinforce near Kharkiv.
For those who come in partway through and want an update, this may be a handy link. Note that it isn't exhaustive, but it can give a good idea.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
Congratulations to the Ukrainian Army on liberating Novovoznesenske in the Kherson region today.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 6, 2022
🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/uJ2H4FxThB
Today's SITREP.
Good information74OA said:
Today's SITREP.
Ground induced mechanical air burst feature. Love it.Private PoopyPants said:The cope cages are evolving, seen here on a Russian T-72B3 pic.twitter.com/vOmsGAGqPA
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 7, 2022
Supposed air to air kill by UKR SU-25 on a russian SU-25.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineInvasionVideos/comments/x7zf3w/russian_su25_getting_shot_down_near_volokhiv_yar/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
LT COL captured POW.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineInvasionVideos/comments/x822gu/captured_orcs_one_of_them_lieutenant_colonel/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
unconfirmed KA-52 shot down.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineInvasionVideos/comments/x822gu/captured_orcs_one_of_them_lieutenant_colonel/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Quote:
Ukrainian military entered Bairak south to Balaklia
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/7-september-ukrainian-military-entered-bairak-south-to-balaklia
Quote:
Russian mercenaries(PMCs) suffering heavy casualties, among other in Oleksandrivka of Kharkiv region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/7-september-russian-mercenariespmcs-suffering-heavy-casualties
Quote:
In a joint article of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi and First Deputy Head of Rada Security committee they confirmed that Ukrainian missiles behind explosions at Saky airbase in occupied Crimea
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/7-september-in-a-joint-article-of-commanderinchief-of-the
Grom?
This is the first time ISW has observed elements of Russia’s elite 1st Guards Tank Army operating in southern Ukraine.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 7, 2022
Map update, Ukrainian forces appear to be establishing a line of control along the T2110 north of Balakliya in Kherson Oblast https://t.co/r2rQVpZ3xE pic.twitter.com/abF7mxaixl
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 7, 2022
Just realized I fat fingered Kherson instead of Kharkiv.
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 7, 2022
Ukes making more gains in Kharkiv area.
They've definitely been watching videos of shaped charge grenades dropping from drones. A hull hit would damage or maybe disable the tank. A turret top hit could cook off the ammunition carousel. I notice they give themselves room to get in and out of the hatches quickly with this cage setup.
Groms or atacms, atacms is my bet since the groms system was still in development at the beginning of the war.
The US should be well versed on using EFPs on armored equipment, they kicked our butt for a while in Iraq (designs came from Iran).
The US should be well versed on using EFPs on armored equipment, they kicked our butt for a while in Iraq (designs came from Iran).
On Kherson-Shmidtove is fully under Ukrainian control as of recently.
— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) September 6, 2022
Confirmed by operation south
⚡️ The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed a barge with Russians and equipment on board near Hola Prystan in the Kherson Region, - Operational Command "South". pic.twitter.com/9S1aUQ4cEn
— FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) September 7, 2022
Quote:
Ministry of reintegration urges civilians residing in areas around Zaporizhzhia Nuclear power plant to evacuate
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/7-september-ministry-of-reintegration-urges-civilians-residing
The weather forecast says it is going to be very hot in Crimea.
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 7, 2022
It's time for the rus invaders to prepare for a swim. It takes a lot of strength to swim to Sochi or Yeysk.
BTW the Guinness Book of World Records may include a new record for the longest open water swim.
Ukrainian HIMARS are targeting Russian convoys and troop concentrations in Kupyansk and Izyum all day.
— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) September 7, 2022
Russian sources report significant amount of killed and wounded soldiers.
Part2/Drone Footage Shows Abandoned Russia Compound and Vehicles in Snihurivka, Kherson
— Ukraine News (@Ukrainene) September 7, 2022
Drone footage of an abandoned Russian compound--a tank, BTR and MT-LB as well as defensive trenches. Near Snihurivka, Kherson.#Ukraine #KhersonOffensive #Kherson pic.twitter.com/6StFd6rWVg
19KM push overnight by UKR forces in Kharkiv region. Also seeing reports of second russian SU25 shot down in last 24 hours same area. Given orc use of manned air power specifically SU25 & KA52 in this area indicates they are in trouble here. If UKR has been able to nock out coms in some of these areas, without NCO corp and serious standing battle plans, we may be about to witness a rout in some of these areas. However even if the orcs left ironclad battle plans they are worthless without training and motivation to carry out. Artillery covering this area just got ducked under which will require pulling arty from other areas (weakening them) and we know trucking and ammo supply issues are beginning to pile on rapidly.
The southern counter may have actually been the feint, but they are making decent progress there as well.
The southern counter may have actually been the feint, but they are making decent progress there as well.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
There was a massive HIMARS strike 4.7KM from this location at rail depot a few days ago on an ammo dump. Probably scared them out of there.Waffledynamics said:Part2/Drone Footage Shows Abandoned Russia Compound and Vehicles in Snihurivka, Kherson
— Ukraine News (@Ukrainene) September 7, 2022
Drone footage of an abandoned Russian compound--a tank, BTR and MT-LB as well as defensive trenches. Near Snihurivka, Kherson.#Ukraine #KhersonOffensive #Kherson pic.twitter.com/6StFd6rWVg
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
That's the question right.JFABNRGR said:There was a massive HIMARS strike 4.7KM from this location at rail depot a few days ago on an ammo dump. Probably scared them out of there.Waffledynamics said:Part2/Drone Footage Shows Abandoned Russia Compound and Vehicles in Snihurivka, Kherson
— Ukraine News (@Ukrainene) September 7, 2022
Drone footage of an abandoned Russian compound--a tank, BTR and MT-LB as well as defensive trenches. Near Snihurivka, Kherson.#Ukraine #KhersonOffensive #Kherson pic.twitter.com/6StFd6rWVg
Did they.....
- Turn tail and run against orders.
or
- Had to pull so many men out of the north to reinforce the south that this was their horribly executed version of General Patton in England with fake tanks to try and fool the Ukes?
I mean, who leaves tanks and armored vehicles behind unless they are out of gas or ammo or both?
Without bridges a retreat from the west side of the river will necessitate leaving a lot of vehicles and equipment
It may be both. It could have been originally designed as a feint to lure Russians from the north and east for the real assault. However, the feint might be so successful in taking ground they are just rolling with it and not stopping.JFABNRGR said:
The southern counter may have actually been the feint, but they are making decent progress there as well.
It does appear Ukraine had offensive forces built up in the north just for this reason unbeknown to Russia.
It will be very interesting to study when this is over. The east and south is much of the economy and food for Ukraine. However, the north is a worse threat to major cities and sitting government at this point.
AgLA06 said:It may be both. It could have been originally designed as a feint to lure Russians from the north and east for the real assault. However, the feint might be so successful in taking ground they are just rolling with it and not stopping.JFABNRGR said:
The southern counter may have actually been the feint, but they are making decent progress there as well.
It does appear Ukraine had offensive forces built up in the north just for this reason unbeknown to Russia.
It will be very interesting to study when this is over. The east and south is much of the economy and food for Ukraine. However, the north is a worse threat to major cities and sitting government at this point.
There seems to be an uptick in POW videos. I take that as a good sign.
Hopefully many more will surrender.
Hopefully many more will surrender.
Fueling may be a serious issue. Either by lack thereof or the ability to transport it through trucks or personnel.AgLA06 said:That's the question right.JFABNRGR said:There was a massive HIMARS strike 4.7KM from this location at rail depot a few days ago on an ammo dump. Probably scared them out of there.Waffledynamics said:Part2/Drone Footage Shows Abandoned Russia Compound and Vehicles in Snihurivka, Kherson
— Ukraine News (@Ukrainene) September 7, 2022
Drone footage of an abandoned Russian compound--a tank, BTR and MT-LB as well as defensive trenches. Near Snihurivka, Kherson.#Ukraine #KhersonOffensive #Kherson pic.twitter.com/6StFd6rWVg
Did they.....
- Turn tail and run against orders.
or
- Had to pull so many men out of the north to reinforce the south that this was their horribly executed version of General Patton in England with fake tanks to try and fool the Ukes?
I mean, who leaves tanks and armored vehicles behind unless they are out of gas or ammo or both?
Crossing rivers without bridges is also a serious issue.
As ABN INF I will choose the LPC (aka boots) over the iron coffins.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
damn; like sheep to a slaughter. Ruskies aren't this stupid and callous with their limited manpower resources are they? This is flat out lack of situational awareness concentrating troops like this.Waffledynamics said:Ukrainian HIMARS are targeting Russian convoys and troop concentrations in Kupyansk and Izyum all day.
— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) September 7, 2022
Russian sources report significant amount of killed and wounded soldiers.
Ukrainian forces captured a huge amount of Russian soldiers in Kharkiv region.
— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) September 7, 2022
Some of them as young as 20 years old.
I would refer you to the history of Russia and their belief that human life not their own is dispensable for the greater good. It means nothing to them.2wealfth Man said:damn; like sheep to a slaughter. Ruskies aren't this stupid and callous with their manpower resources are they? This is flat out lack of situational awareness concentrating troops like this.Waffledynamics said:Ukrainian HIMARS are targeting Russian convoys and troop concentrations in Kupyansk and Izyum all day.
— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) September 7, 2022
Russian sources report significant amount of killed and wounded soldiers.
There are no such things as suicide missions. Just missions.
Interesting that Ukes have improved targeting ability......
I am also pondering how we can improve deployment speed; getting these kind of difference making assets on the battlefield as quickly as possible seems to be an imperative in this modern age of combat
Ukrainian software engineers improved the targeting software of many of these artillery pieces which enables them to get a firing plan is seconds verses minutes… This has helped them greatly and other NATO countries will be provided with that software as well… 😀
— Lars 🇪🇺🇳🇱🇺🇦 (@lrspsthm) September 7, 2022
I am also pondering how we can improve deployment speed; getting these kind of difference making assets on the battlefield as quickly as possible seems to be an imperative in this modern age of combat
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