In light of its terrible demographics, it's small wonder Russia is struggling to replace its casualties in Ukraine. Who would want to raise a family in such a political and economic cesspool?

DESPERATION

Eliminatus said:

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AgLA06 said:

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aezmvp said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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New excuse just dropped.

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Ammunition exploding near Timonovo village of Belgorod region due to hot weather, - authorities

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/23-august-ammunition-exploding-near-timonovo-village-of-belgorod

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Ooooookay. Not like there are any areas that get hot during the summer previously. I mean yeah an explosion caused by enemy action could raise local temps but that's totally not what happened.

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Honestly, this might / could / potentially be legit. Russia has a lot of really old, poorly made, and poorly stored ammo. Especially artillery shells. As someone mentioned a couple pages back, a large portion was supposed to be disposed of and all new climate controlled storage built for the rest. Neither happened because Russia is a bunch of corrupt bastages.

Of course, right now no one is going to believe it or care.

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I mean, maybe. On paper.

I spent my youth working with and around munitions in 120+ weather for extended periods of time. And that includes munitions still in cases and boxes which were often metal and got MUCH hotter than 120. Literally burn your skin to touch.

It has been around 90 degrees tops last few days in that area. I'm not buying it at all. Crappy Russian ammo or not. That stuff didn't spontaneously explode in Afghanistan either and it was everywhere.

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It really depends on storage conditions and exactly what the explosives were, though. Think TNT sweating nitroglycerin.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was an attack, poor handing, or poorly stored, unstable explosives that spontaneously detonated. All of the above are certainly reasonable.

Big aid package to be announced tomorrow. "Unlike most previous packages, the new funding is largely aimed at helping Ukraine secure its medium- to long-term defense posture, according to officials familiar with the matter. Earlier shipments, most of them done under Presidential Drawdown Authority, have focused on Ukraine's more immediate needs for weapons and ammunition and involved materiel that the Pentagon already has in stock that can be shipped in short order."

$3B

Waffledynamics said:

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Any reason barges wouldn't be just big fat targets?

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Total wild ass guess ... but by assembling the barges directly under the bridge, they may be attempting to shield the barges from a vertical missile trajectory.

benchmark said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Any reason barges wouldn't be just big fat targets?

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Total wild ass guess ... but by assembling the barges directly under the bridge, they may be attempting to shield the barges from a vertical missile trajectory.

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Alongside not under, and a HIMARS missile won't care if the old bridge is still there, it'll just be blindly heading for a GPS coordinate ten meters off to one side of it.

Waffledynamics said:

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New excuse just dropped.

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Ammunition exploding near Timonovo village of Belgorod region due to hot weather, - authorities

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/23-august-ammunition-exploding-near-timonovo-village-of-belgorod

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Tragic. Yet another victim of Global Warming...

I have read several reports that it was just SAM/ADA launches and some Aircraft sonic booms. This said there has been a sharp decrease in imagery coming from civilian orcs and any of the overhead imagery sources. A drone or two may have been shot down. It seems UKR has received enough drones to sacrifice some to antagonize behind enemy line areas. Of course dual/triple purpose missions; providing real time intel, have suicidal attack missions as occurred at Black Sea Fleet HQ, or triggering ADA signature for our eyes in the sky to mark while decreasing their munition inventory.

Even the FIRMS fire mapping is not showing some of the fires we know exist(ed) behind enemy lines.

I am confident ATACMS have been used and the US is working to keep the rhetoric down, especially if it was the warehouses along the track in Azovske/A30BCbke Crimea that were hit with the massive secondary explosions which were enough to burn the entire town down which measures about 2.5X3.5 miles. POP 2-3K ??? all civilian, with exception of military at the wharehouses and or the MRLS yard adjacent to.

If not ATACAMs then UKR home grown med/LR missiles of which production is supposedly up 600% from pre war production levels. Though the more I think about the timing of that article, it could certainly be counterintelligence as that should be OPSEC info.

We have also seen a decrease in ammo storage hits. Not sure if they are running out of targets or have strategically changed maybe providing orcs a moment to consider pulling out versus pissing them off to something more horrific.

Nice wrap-up of the likely suspects behind the recent attacks on Crimea.

WHODUNNIT?

Germany has done several exchanges like this to enable other countries to donate their ex-Soviet armor to Ukraine.

SWAP

benchmark said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Any reason barges wouldn't be just big fat targets?

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Total wild ass guess ... but by assembling the barges directly under the bridge, they may be attempting to shield the barges from a vertical missile trajectory.

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the interior bents can also help anchor the barges from the stream loading (current) and the transition back on/off existing road alignment is likely less work.

Either way after seeing some of the explosion videos/pics it looks like there may be some new crappie structure below the surface and maybe a few more refusals on orders to do it again.

WHODUNNIT Link Name checks out.

I suspect our folks may have contacted russian back channels or they contacted us after those attacks, and we told them the UKES can keep doing this and will keep doing this until you leave. Probably followed up with a get this done MSG and we will find you a new home.

74OA said:

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Nice wrap-up of the likely suspects behind the recent attacks on Crimea.

WHODUNNIT?

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This is why we can leave some stuff to the professionals. I spent about two hours brain storming and googling to reach the same conclusions he did and didn't even consider the air strike option. Though it never entered feasibility range for me and still doesn't.

Two hours of screen staring vs a quick five minute read I mean.

Latest update videos from our two YouTube mainstays. I'm still watching. Some of this information is a rehash of things already discussed in this thread. Some is new or expands upon known events.





And an interesting video from Binkov's Battlegrounds about the use of HIMARS in Ukraine:

#Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Update:

Russian federal subjects are forming specialized military units with likely volunteers without prior military experience.https://t.co/Gze1ECBMgI pic.twitter.com/DwulBSGL2P

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) August 24, 2022

These Russians are something else.

https://vancouversun.com/news/world/russian-tourists-photo-gives-away-location-of-putins-air-defences/wcm/06859882-3428-42c6-b74a-b6595b2c6e08

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Russian tourist's photo gives away location of Putin's air defences

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The nation's defence ministry cheekily thanked a Russian tourist who posted a vacation photo that allowed Ukraine's military experts to locate Putin's air defences.

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The photo was reportedly uploaded to social media site VKontakte, Russia's version of Facebook, on the weekend and geotagged to his location.

It matched up with reports of activity by anti-air systems in the area, the Daily Mail reported.

It is unknown what Ukraine plans to do with the inadvertent intel.

But it comes after Ukraine special forces and a "resistance force" recently targeted Russian airbases in Crimea.

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Maybe we are being too hard on russian tourists… Sometimes they can be really helpful. Like this man taking pictures at russian air defense positions near Yevpatoria, in occupied Crimea. Thank you and keep up the good work! pic.twitter.com/bj5oEyXU0H

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 22, 2022

In Zaporizhzhia, the kitten was hit by a car, the police found 🐈 and took to a veterinary clinic. pic.twitter.com/xDQxeXNpAg

— Ukrainian Sunflower 🌻 Слава Україні🇺🇦 (@UASunflower) August 23, 2022

What is the source of that article? The masthead is cut off.

No Ukrainian outlets or OSINT people are are reporting this.

🤡#Russian Defense Minister #Shoigu: "The slowdown of the offensive in #Ukraine is a conscious decision due to the desire to minimize civilian casualties, the special operation is going according to plan". pic.twitter.com/VGtkaoeIw9

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 24, 2022

🇺🇦 Today, Ukraine is marking its most special Independence Day.

Six months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Ukraine is still a free, independent country. A country that is suffering – but still standing strong. https://t.co/vy6jmNzqxo

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 24, 2022

Private PoopyPants said:

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🤡#Russian Defense Minister #Shoigu: "The slowdown of the offensive in #Ukraine is a conscious decision due to the desire to minimize civilian casualties, the special operation is going according to plan". pic.twitter.com/VGtkaoeIw9

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 24, 2022

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Whew! Good to hear. Carry on doing what you're doing...........

Things flying in the air in the Western part of the country lately.

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Missile strikes confirmed in Khmelnitsky region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/24-august-missile-strikes-confirmed-in-khmelnitsky-region

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Air defense is active in Vinnytsia region, one aerial object destroyed

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/24-august-air-defense-is-active-in-vinnytsia-region-one-aerial

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Missile strike reported near Shepetivka of Khmelnitsky region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/24-august-missile-strike-reported-near-shepetivka-of-khmelnitsky

Cowards

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Russian bomber launched 2 missiles over Belarus towards Ukraine

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/24-august-russian-bomber-launched-2-missiles-over-belarus

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Contrary to such views, the offensive is very much underway, with Ukraine simply taking a prudent, risk-averse strategy while it can still easily hit Russian targets far behind the front lines. Unlike Russia, Ukraine actually highly values the lives of its soldiers, a major factor in morale, as Ukrainian soldiers can count on their commanders to not throw their lives away carelessly or needlessly, unlike the clear, callous indifference that permeates Russian command (which I have detailed before). And the very nature of the conflict is now defined by Russia's inability to produce anything but marginally successful advances (if any progress at all) and Ukraine's purposeful approach to strike Russian targets one-by-one with precision, distance weapons while keeping its own forces as much out of harm's way as it can where it can.

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https://realcontextnews.com/ukrainian-prudence-meets-russian-limitations-explaining-the-current-pace-and-nature-of-russias-war-on-ukraine/

Don't know anything about this dude, but it was an interesting read.

His book is a pretty big path down a Trump hating TDS rant, but maybe he did a better job with his analysis on what's going on in the war.

Y'all need to be better students of history, Russia has almost always fought with the thought of "quantity has a quality all its own". The other Stalin quote of "a single death is a tragedy, a milltion deaths is a statistic" summarizes their way of fighting wars.

FriscoKid said:

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Quote:

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Contrary to such views, the offensive is very much underway, with Ukraine simply taking a prudent, risk-averse strategy while it can still easily hit Russian targets far behind the front lines. Unlike Russia, Ukraine actually highly values the lives of its soldiers, a major factor in morale, as Ukrainian soldiers can count on their commanders to not throw their lives away carelessly or needlessly, unlike the clear, callous indifference that permeates Russian command (which I have detailed before). And the very nature of the conflict is now defined by Russia's inability to produce anything but marginally successful advances (if any progress at all) and Ukraine's purposeful approach to strike Russian targets one-by-one with precision, distance weapons while keeping its own forces as much out of harm's way as it can where it can.

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https://realcontextnews.com/ukrainian-prudence-meets-russian-limitations-explaining-the-current-pace-and-nature-of-russias-war-on-ukraine/

Don't know anything about this dude, but it was an interesting read.

His book is a pretty big path down a Trump hating TDS rant, but maybe he did a better job with his analysis on what's going on in the war.

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This is consistent with other similar analysis over the last week or so.

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Russian Guard detained 2 employees of Zaporizhzhia NPP, accused them in cooperating with Armed Forces of Ukraine

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/24-august-russian-guard-detained-2-employees-of-zaporizhzhia

Well this is interesting.

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800 Taiwanese 'flying mortar' drones reportedly shipped to Ukrainian army

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https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4634185

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According to Polish media, 800 Revolver 860 combat drones, which are described as "flying mortars," have been delivered to Ukrainian forces.

Polish technology media outlet WP tech on Aug. 18 reported that 800 Revolver 860 Armed VTOL UAVs have been "donated" to Ukraine's military. The report described the large quadcopter as a "flying mortar" because of the drone's revolving drum-like bomb bay, which can hold eight 60-millimeter (mm) mortar shells.

The UAV weighs 42 kg and is 1.35 m in diameter. When loaded with eight 60 mm mortar rounds, it can fly up to 20 kilometers and stay airborne for 20 to 40 minutes with its four arms and eight propellors.

According to WP tech, the Taiwan-made drone is unique in that its 8-position "drum" can rotate and release each mortar shell one at a time. The manufacturer's website also states that the UAV can be modified to carry 81 mm and 120 mm mortar rounds.

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I guess Taiwan doesn't need them. Interesting that they're helping Ukraine given the threat of China. I guess that threat has been reduced.

Quote:

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When asked on Aug. 18 to comment on claims that 800 of its Revolver 860 UAVs had been sent to the Ukrainian army, a representative for DronesVision told Taiwan News that the company only ships to customers in Poland. Due to non-disclosure agreements with its clients, the company was unable to comment on what clients do with the products or where they may be sent.

The spokesperson did say that customers in Poland have purchased the company's full range of UAV products. The representative said that purchases of the drones picked up in Poland in March, shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, and have steadily increased since.

According to the company spokesperson, while direct shipments of its products to Ukraine have been severed due to the war, the number of drones ordered and the number of companies placing orders from Poland have continued to rise over the past five months.

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Hopefully this didn't just screw up the NDA and stop the supply.

More on today's $3B aid package.

"Unlike presidential drawdown actions, using the USAI pathway means the weapons, ammo and systems are not pulled from current US stocks, but will be ordered from the defense industry, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters today."

CONTRACTS

Talk about ****ing some **** up with the mortar drone followed up by infantry about 4:30AM, assuming thermal capability. Follow with infantry. Dumb ass russians probably don't have their own positions pre targeted for their own arty.

Can't wait to see some of these vids. Its gonna compel somebody to write another song like "Bayraktar" only now with Mortar Drone.

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I guess Taiwan doesn't need them. Interesting that they're helping Ukraine given the threat of China. I guess that threat has been reduced.

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This give Taiwan very good field experience for R&D and use of what they already have.

74OA said:

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More on today's $3B aid package.

"Unlike presidential drawdown actions, using the USAI pathway means the weapons, ammo and systems are not pulled from current US stocks, but will be ordered from the defense industry, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters today."

CONTRACTS

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This is also sending a MSG that we are going to provide support for the long haul while maintaining our own readiness (what that is of course is debatable on other thread).

The announcement by Soigu yesterday stating a slow down of the special operation is according to plan for safety of civilians is an indicator invasion is coming to a close. Occupation may be very different but very soon I predict russia to begin fortifying areas of occupation they think they can hold for the long haul.

If the report of a single russian bomber, sending only two cruise missiles for targets in the west is accurate on Independence Day is also a sign of the end is nearing.....Is that all they have??

The editor, clearly didn't run the below statement past anyone with Combat experience in CQB or indirect fire.

"Military personnel can be trained to fly the helicopter drones, which are smaller than a mobile phone, in under 20 minutes. Each drone feeds back live video and still images to allow forces on the ground to defend urban areas safely,"

15 meter wide rocket impact crater in a wheat field, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. pic.twitter.com/xFaNAwlcKj

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 24, 2022

Russian accuracy is amazing.

50/50.

Ukraine is great with PR. They know Russia has embarrassed itself with inability to do much correctly. So could it have been a high valued target parked where that crater was? sure. Was it? probably not.

⚡️Zelensky: Russia attacks train station in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, kills at least 15 people.

According to Zelensky, Russia attacked a railway station in the village of Chaplyne on Aug. 24, killing at least 15 people and injuring 50.

📷Demokratychna Sokyra/Telegram pic.twitter.com/Wc4Vp7wLHU

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 24, 2022