I think Crimea represents a far more valuable piece of dirt than the Donbas, especially now that much of it is blown to bits. Crimea is strategically located on the Black sea and shares control of the Sea of Azov access. I am confident if UKR has a choice they take Crimea. Given the sanctions, the world (mostly West) and likely Turkey to a degree are going to get some say in this because of the sanctions on russia. If russia is going to give up Crimea without significant war effort It may only be because the west releases sanctions much sooner than later.twk said:The only way this war comes to a quick end, barring a shocking capitulation by Ukraine, is if the offensive to retake Kherson succeeds and allows Ukraine to press on all the way to the Isthmus of Perekop, which connects Crimea to mainland Ukraine. You wouldn't think it to look at a map, but Crimea lacks fresh water, and the Soviets built a canal diverting water from the Dnipro in the '60s that allowed the plains of Crimea to become productive agricultural land. When the Russians took Crimea in 2014, Ukraine dammed the canal to stop the flow of water. Reestablishing that flow of water was a key invasion objective.74OA said:
No telling yet how the Kherson fight will work out, but I sure hope a significant number of the ~20K Russian troops reportedly fighting there are ultimately captured.
Not only would it be a major blow to Putin and the Russian army, but it would also provide the Ukrainians with bargaining chips to exchange for their own POWs and the hundreds of thousands of kidnapped Ukrainian civilians.
TRAPPED?
Yes, it's from NPR but it's a good read
I think this is probably a more realistic objective than forcibly ejecting the Russians from Donbas, but, if accomplished, it would give Ukraine a big bargaining chip in potential negotiations to end the war, perhaps trading water for Crimea in exchange for a return to pre-invasion borders (neither side would like it, but that's what happens in a compromise).
twk said:That's the problem. I don't think Ukraine has the resources to expel Russia completely, even if we were to give them everything they want. The Russians are about out of steam, too, but they would be content to call it a day and wait for another opportunity a few years down the road, having taken another big slice of Ukraine this time around, like they did after taking Crimea.Red Pear Realty said:
I wouldn't agree to that if I were Ukraine. Allowing Russia to stay in Crimea just allows them a base to launch future invasions years from now, and this whole war would be for nothing. Expel them completely or die trying.
Swollen Thumb said:
Doesn't look like a drone or missle. I don't see anything flying into the base. Just an explosion, almost like a controlled demolition.
Point taken Ulysses, but it sure does help to have a 3-to-1 numerical advantage too.Ulysses90 said:twk said:That's the problem. I don't think Ukraine has the resources to expel Russia completely, even if we were to give them everything they want. The Russians are about out of steam, too, but they would be content to call it a day and wait for another opportunity a few years down the road, having taken another big slice of Ukraine this time around, like they did after taking Crimea.Red Pear Realty said:
I wouldn't agree to that if I were Ukraine. Allowing Russia to stay in Crimea just allows them a base to launch future invasions years from now, and this whole war would be for nothing. Expel them completely or die trying.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-august-railway-bridge-blown-up-between-tokmak-and-melitopolQuote:
Railway bridge blown up between Tokmak and Melitopol
Между Токмаком и Мелитополем железнодорожный мост превратился в навесной pic.twitter.com/y2YzLVWCNC
— KHERSON-KHARKIV (@KharkivKherson) August 15, 2022
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-august-explosions-at-tokmak-at-russian-baseQuote:
Explosions at Tokmak at Russian base
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 15 August 2022
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) August 15, 2022
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/6TpEvHdDB9
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/hKzX3KFOoC
The cooperative has about 1,000 garages. Witnesses of the searches noted that the orcs selectively loot small items from garages. pic.twitter.com/d1JfWgoO5D
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 14, 2022
Mercenaries of the self-proclaimed "#Luhansk People's Republic" declared that they won't fight on the territory of the self-proclaimed "#Donetsk People's Republic". pic.twitter.com/U80kcB3fMx
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 15, 2022
⚡️Russian media showed a prototype of the first military unmanned truck "Ural" in the Russian Federation. It is assumed that it will be controlled from a remote control and drive completely autonomously. pic.twitter.com/KiFATW7xTb
— Flash (@Flash43191300) August 15, 2022
Alright folks, let's strap in for the most important logistical thread🧵of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) August 15, 2022
This thread is about how much artillery ammunition the Russian Army has left over from the Cold War and what shape it is in.
It's going to be a ride.
1/ pic.twitter.com/D1xUk0HBff
After the work of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and partisans, the Russian military began to take their families out of the temporarily occupied Melitopol, - We are waiting for a "gesture of good will" not only in the Kherson, but also in the Zaporizhzhia direction. pic.twitter.com/v8vW5SkmAG
— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) August 15, 2022
Waffledynamics said:Mercenaries of the self-proclaimed "#Luhansk People's Republic" declared that they won't fight on the territory of the self-proclaimed "#Donetsk People's Republic". pic.twitter.com/U80kcB3fMx
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) August 15, 2022
A powerful explosion in Kharkiv! #Kharkiv #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/feebMC5Ek1
— 🇺🇦Mehmet Palabıyık #ukraine 🇺🇦 (@yorukhunnn) August 15, 2022
"It's really, really bad." (ref @SarahAshtonLV) This is as bad as I have seen attacks in the #Kharkiv area. #Magnetic anomalies pouring in. All mixed up but the usual Kharkiv signature is: Lviv - 6 min - Buc - 12 min-Pag. Much more going on. Hyper(super)sonic spikes. pic.twitter.com/VcCVSI31zF
— Richard Cordaro (@rrichcord) August 15, 2022
Now the occupiers say many buildings in Mariupol can’t be salvaged & smell bad - so they just bulldoze them to the ground. Which means we won’t even know who died where. People are vanishing with their homes. As if they never existed.#StopRussiaNOW #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/MGD5JEhEgU
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) August 15, 2022
Looking for civilian cars to get away in and take their looted appliances with them.Waffledynamics said:The cooperative has about 1,000 garages. Witnesses of the searches noted that the orcs selectively loot small items from garages. pic.twitter.com/d1JfWgoO5D
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 14, 2022
Could this be Russian looting on their way out?
Will be interesting to see how they change the Chinese tires by remote control...Waffledynamics said:⚡️Russian media showed a prototype of the first military unmanned truck "Ural" in the Russian Federation. It is assumed that it will be controlled from a remote control and drive completely autonomously. pic.twitter.com/KiFATW7xTb
— Flash (@Flash43191300) August 15, 2022
Jayhawk said:Point taken Ulysses, but it sure does help to have a 3-to-1 numerical advantage too.Ulysses90 said:twk said:That's the problem. I don't think Ukraine has the resources to expel Russia completely, even if we were to give them everything they want. The Russians are about out of steam, too, but they would be content to call it a day and wait for another opportunity a few years down the road, having taken another big slice of Ukraine this time around, like they did after taking Crimea.Red Pear Realty said:
I wouldn't agree to that if I were Ukraine. Allowing Russia to stay in Crimea just allows them a base to launch future invasions years from now, and this whole war would be for nothing. Expel them completely or die trying.
txags92 said:Will be interesting to see how they change the Chinese tires by remote control...Waffledynamics said:⚡️Russian media showed a prototype of the first military unmanned truck "Ural" in the Russian Federation. It is assumed that it will be controlled from a remote control and drive completely autonomously. pic.twitter.com/KiFATW7xTb
— Flash (@Flash43191300) August 15, 2022
MouthBQ98 said:
Hiding war crimes.
You are assuming the engine will start...ABATTBQ11 said:txags92 said:Will be interesting to see how they change the Chinese tires by remote control...Waffledynamics said:⚡️Russian media showed a prototype of the first military unmanned truck "Ural" in the Russian Federation. It is assumed that it will be controlled from a remote control and drive completely autonomously. pic.twitter.com/KiFATW7xTb
— Flash (@Flash43191300) August 15, 2022
I wouldn't be surprised if it kept going straight through the first curve it came to.
Would be a shame if it's remote signal was hacked. A little route correction and voila! Free Ammo Delivery.Waffledynamics said:⚡️Russian media showed a prototype of the first military unmanned truck "Ural" in the Russian Federation. It is assumed that it will be controlled from a remote control and drive completely autonomously. pic.twitter.com/KiFATW7xTb
— Flash (@Flash43191300) August 15, 2022
2/2 And the railway station through which troops, ammunition and equipment are transferred.#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineRussianWar #Ukrainian #UkrainianArmy #UkraineWillWin
— 🇺🇦Ukraine News Live🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) August 16, 2022
Quote:
An independent military intelligence group says Russia is amassing anti-aircraft missile systems in Belarus in preparation for what it says is a large-scale attack against Ukraine.
Belarusian Hajun said in a Telegram post Monday that its analysis of satellite images shows a buildup of arms at the Ziabrovka airfield in Belarus roughly 25 miles from the border with Ukraine. The report from the monitor of Belarusian military activity comes amid speculation over Belarus' support for Russia's war effort in Ukraine.
"An analysis of the situation at the airfield proves that the likelihood of rocket attacks on the territory of Ukraine not only remains, but it seems that the Russians are preparing for a massive missile attack on Ukraine in the coming weeks," Belarusian Hajun said in the post.
Quote:
Using satellite images from U.S. space technology company Maxar Technologies Inc., Belarusian Hajun said in the post that the Ziabrovka airfield contains 10 to 14 S-400 Triumph and two Pantsir air defense systems, as well as three KASTA-2E2 and 48Y6 Podlyot radars.
Additionally, it said the airfield is being used to store at least 15 to 60 missiles for the Triumph defense system, with more expected to be delivered by the Russian Aerospace Forces.
benchmark said:
Newsweek: Russia Preparing 'Massive Missile Attack' on Ukraine From Belarus: IntelQuote:
An independent military intelligence group says Russia is amassing anti-aircraft missile systems in Belarus in preparation for what it says is a large-scale attack against Ukraine.
Belarusian Hajun said in a Telegram post Monday that its analysis of satellite images shows a buildup of arms at the Ziabrovka airfield in Belarus roughly 25 miles from the border with Ukraine. The report from the monitor of Belarusian military activity comes amid speculation over Belarus' support for Russia's war effort in Ukraine.
"An analysis of the situation at the airfield proves that the likelihood of rocket attacks on the territory of Ukraine not only remains, but it seems that the Russians are preparing for a massive missile attack on Ukraine in the coming weeks," Belarusian Hajun said in the post.Quote:
Using satellite images from U.S. space technology company Maxar Technologies Inc., Belarusian Hajun said in the post that the Ziabrovka airfield contains 10 to 14 S-400 Triumph and two Pantsir air defense systems, as well as three KASTA-2E2 and 48Y6 Podlyot radars.
Additionally, it said the airfield is being used to store at least 15 to 60 missiles for the Triumph defense system, with more expected to be delivered by the Russian Aerospace Forces.
agent-maroon said:
You really think it would drive straight?
Russia starts to use new S-400 SAMs costing over $100,000,000 to bombard Ukrainian citiesEliminatus said:
They plan on mass attacking with AA munitions? Am I reading that right?
