***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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AgLA06
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In reply to 74OA • 11:12a, 8/10/22
AG
74OA said:
AgLA06 said:
74OA said:
AgLA06 said:
74OA said:
Zelensky now stating that the airbase attack was a Ukrainian SOF mission, not missiles.
He might as well said little green men. Too many people around there for that to have been a manned assault. No way they wouldn't already be paraded on tv after getting caught.
There's a lot of assumptions in your comment. Any supporting facts to share?
If we had supporting anything we wouldn't be discussing it.

Every video showing the attack had gobs of tourists and motorists in the video. Not to mention the actual Russian personnel at the base. It's extremely unlikely that men did that damage in person and made it out without being seen, let alone captured / killed.

That leaves us with the assumptions listed by the other guys of guided missiles or large coordinated drone attack being the most likely. When someone says SOF mission, they aren't assuming he means guys sitting remotely doing something.

What I'm not sure of, is why this conversation seemed to bother you. It's the point of the thread.
Your assumption that Zelensky is lying without offering anything to support that beyond opinion is what I responded to. Why does that seem to bother you?


You're not understanding. It doesn't bother any of us. It's exactly what multiple of of suggested he should do to keep the Russians guessing. "Little green men" is a joke referencing someone saying "we don't know what happened to you. Maybe it was alians".

Take a breath.
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AGS-R-TUFF
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In reply to LMCane • 12:04p, 8/10/22
AG
LMCane said:
sclaff said:
I have a feeling the Groms just made their first appearance. The Ukrainians have developed multiple weapon systems but are limited in production.

After the success of the Himars, just the rumors of a longer range systems are causing the Ivans to skedaddle across the Kerch bridge.


Here's a question:

how is the vaunted Red Army that was supposed to roll over NATO not able to destroy the Ukrainian Air Force and military production plants?!

are the Ukes using new mobile manufacturing plants for their advanced weaponry?!/

that's an insane amount of fail when Russia has many satellites.
After reading your post, I had a curious thought…

What would prevent a friendly Baltic country (Poland) from allowing the Ukes to transfer men and materials to a manufacturing facility in NATO territory? Then, the Ukes could (secretly) advance the development of maybe a few longer range (GROM) missiles and send those back into the fight.

Just thinking out loud.
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txags92
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In reply to AgLA06 • 12:41p, 8/10/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
74OA said:
AgLA06 said:
74OA said:
Zelensky now stating that the airbase attack was a Ukrainian SOF mission, not missiles.
He might as well said little green men. Too many people around there for that to have been a manned assault. No way they wouldn't already be paraded on tv after getting caught.
There's a lot of assumptions in your comment. Any supporting facts to share?
When someone says SOF mission, they aren't assuming he means guys sitting remotely doing something.
When the mission is 50+ km behind the front lines, a SOF team could be operating a few km away from the attack site with remote weapons of some sort. Just because he said SOF doesn't mean they had to be making a frontal assault on the facility.
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to txags92 • 12:49p, 8/10/22
AG
They could sneak a mortar in a few KM away on foot and fire off some carefully calculated shots and be gone into the civilian population in minutes. Without an artillery tracking radar set up, they might never find the point of origin.

An accident handling weapons or fuel or a clever partisan attack or sabotage by a disgruntled conscript is also possible.

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74OA
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In reply to txags92 • 2:13p, 8/10/22
AG
txags92 said:
AgLA06 said:
74OA said:
AgLA06 said:
74OA said:
Zelensky now stating that the airbase attack was a Ukrainian SOF mission, not missiles.
He might as well said little green men. Too many people around there for that to have been a manned assault. No way they wouldn't already be paraded on tv after getting caught.
There's a lot of assumptions in your comment. Any supporting facts to share?
When someone says SOF mission, they aren't assuming he means guys sitting remotely doing something.
When the mission is 50+ km behind the front lines, a SOF team could be operating a few km away from the attack site with remote weapons of some sort. Just because he said SOF doesn't mean they had to be making a frontal assault on the facility.
More on the potential for an unconventional attack. RAID?

"Though the cause of the incident remains unclear, multiple Ukrainian officials have now told various major news outlets that local pro-Ukrainian guerrillas, also often referred to as partisans, were involved in some way. Ukrainian special operations forces on the ground may have participated in some fashion, as well."



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benchmark
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2:17p, 8/10/22
AG
First videos out that show the damage to bridge sections over the Nova Kakhovka dam. Interesting to note that they've attacked 2 sections of the bridge.


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benchmark
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2:32p, 8/10/22
AG
First airfield sat photos and damage assessment are out.


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AGS-R-TUFF
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In reply to benchmark • 2:46p, 8/10/22
AG
benchmark said:
First videos out that show the damage to bridge sections over the Nova Kakhovka dam. Interesting to note that they've attacked 2 sections of the bridge.


The heavy destruction in the first video looks like some type of inland building/equipment site. The last video shows two hits to the outer edges of the early sections of the overwater span. If my guesswork is right, Ukes will need to hit the spans again to increase damage - as those sections still look passable.
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AgLA06
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In reply to benchmark • 2:46p, 8/10/22
AG
Damn.

Aliens destroyed 17 jets, 6 helicopters, a surveillance plane, and all their ammo?
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to benchmark • 2:47p, 8/10/22
AG
benchmark said:
First airfield sat photos and damage assessment are out.


I am counting 12-13 total fixed wing, but also missing other damaged parts of the field from the fov. No clue on rotary.

I think the sat view is also missing the two parrallel bldings in far NW part of the field blown to bits.

If this really was little green men with or without some drones it may go down in history as one of the greatest "behind enemy line attacks" ever. Somebody is already writing a movie script for this meanwhile there is about to be a whole new list of promotions coming in the orc military from E1-O6.

That was a massive hit whatever the final numbers are.
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AgLA06
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In reply to AGS-R-TUFF • 2:48p, 8/10/22
AG
There was mention of Russia "shooting down" missiles. I doubt they can shut down HIMARs.

However, there does seem like there was supposed to be another hole in the middle of that group.
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TRM
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3:06p, 8/10/22
AG
Citizens fleeing Crimea.



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JFABNRGR
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In reply to AgLA06 • 3:08p, 8/10/22
AG
Very interesting note on current operators of the ATACAMS.

See Romania under current operators and the dates thereof.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

The left middle crater I can see being possibly made by secondary explosion of weapons stored but the crater on top and at left bottom shown in the red squares are tarmac areas in front of aircraft parking and not plausible to me as a made by secondary explosion. I believe there is a fourth crater at 5 oclock from bottom left square where the group of aircraft were parked.

Goto picture 6 and blow up.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/wl6p3y/novofedorovka_airfield_beforeafter_the_impact/
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AlaskanAg99
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3:10p, 8/10/22
AG
Russian Tourists, go **** yourselves.
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Bird Poo
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3:14p, 8/10/22
AG
That looks a lot more than tourists. If residents are getting the heck out then this is a good sign.
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74OA
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 3:21p, 8/10/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
Very interesting note on current operators of the ATACAMS.

See Romania under current operators and the dates thereof.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

The left middle crater I can see being possibly made by secondary explosion of weapons stored but the crater on top and at left bottom shown in the red squares are tarmac areas in front of aircraft parking and not plausible to me as a made by secondary explosion. I believe there is a fourth crater at 5 oclock from bottom left square where the group of aircraft were parked.

Goto picture 6 and blow up.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/wl6p3y/novofedorovka_airfield_beforeafter_the_impact/
Note the location of the three large craters along the top in the after shot, then look at the before shot. Appears to me that the three flightline buildings were precisely targeted and the fighters are collateral damage?

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MouthBQ98
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3:26p, 8/10/22
AG
Look like SU-24 and TU-122 but I am not sure. Just noticed the assessment above. Ouch. That's a lot of aircraft added to the lost column and not insignificant types.
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JB!98
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In reply to benchmark • 3:43p, 8/10/22
AG
benchmark said:
First airfield sat photos and damage assessment are out.


I believe it is from Red Storm Rising, "Russian Frontal Aviation took a grievous hit this day........" Hopefully, the novel and this war mirror each other. Sure seems to be tracking this way.
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AlaskanAg99
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3:44p, 8/10/22
AG
I can't tell you how bad I want the ukes to sink a sub.
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Gilligan
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 3:59p, 8/10/22
AG
MouthBQ98 said:
Look like SU-24 and TU-122 but I am not sure. Just noticed the assessment above. Ouch. That's a lot of aircraft added to the lost column and not insignificant types.
It would be a shame if a bunch of the pilots for those planes started pushing up sunflowers as well.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to 74OA • 4:08p, 8/10/22
AG
Absolutely! Whats also interesting is it does not appear that the actual Magazine type ammo storage bldg to the SE was targeted, by the amount of damage they shot the right ones. No telling how many KG of HE was in those building.
This was a well planned and possibly "perfectly" executed operation. Today the British GOV supported the attack stating Crimea was a fair target. It is also highly likely overhead intel as in the past was provided.
Given the amount of peeps leaving Crimea and doing so almost immediately, is there reason to believe they had confirmation of missile attack and felt threatened even though the so called accident PR was put out? if the orcs called for the public to evacuate that certainly would not support their initial MSG.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to Gilligan • 4:21p, 8/10/22
AG
Gilligan said:
MouthBQ98 said:
Look like SU-24 and TU-122 but I am not sure. Just noticed the assessment above. Ouch. That's a lot of aircraft added to the lost column and not insignificant types.
It would be a shame if a bunch of the pilots for those planes started pushing up sunflowers as well.
Speaking of which, do any of you pilot types know if that IL76 would have been affected, had those two massive explosions occurred a few seconds earlier when it was was 100' AGL on final?
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74OA
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 4:23p, 8/10/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
Absolutely! Whats also interesting is it does not appear that the actual Magazine type ammo storage bldg to the SE was targeted, by the amount of damage they shot the right ones. No telling how many KG of HE was in those building.
This was a well planned and possibly "perfectly" executed operation. Today the British GOV supported the attack stating Crimea was a fair target. It is also highly likely overhead intel as in the past was provided.
Given the amount of peeps leaving Crimea and doing so almost immediately, is there reason to believe they had confirmation of missile attack and felt threatened even though the so called accident PR was put out? if the orcs called for the public to evacuate that certainly would not support their initial MSG.
I think a lot of people heard the boom and/or saw the fire and smoke so the word got out quickly to the general populace that the war had come to Crimea. With thousands now streaming back to Russia with that story, it's gonna be hard for the Kremlin to control the narrative on this one.
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fullback44
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5:06p, 8/10/22
AG
meanwhile, the EU hasnt backed off any of its Diesel imports from Russia, if anything, they have increased liquid fuels from Russia to make up for the losses in natural gas!

Europe Is Importing More Diesel From Russia As Energy Crisis Worsens (businessinsider.com)
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fullback44
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In reply to 74OA • 5:10p, 8/10/22
AG
74OA said:
JFABNRGR said:
Very interesting note on current operators of the ATACAMS.

See Romania under current operators and the dates thereof.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

The left middle crater I can see being possibly made by secondary explosion of weapons stored but the crater on top and at left bottom shown in the red squares are tarmac areas in front of aircraft parking and not plausible to me as a made by secondary explosion. I believe there is a fourth crater at 5 oclock from bottom left square where the group of aircraft were parked.

Goto picture 6 and blow up.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/wl6p3y/novofedorovka_airfield_beforeafter_the_impact/
Note the location of the three large craters along the top in the after shot, then look at the before shot. Appears to me that the three flightline buildings were precisely targeted and the fighters are collateral damage?

Rods of God ? Where did these huge craters come from? those look like some big explosions to make that type of crator
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Ulysses90
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 5:29p, 8/10/22
AG
MouthBQ98 said:
Look like SU-24 and TU-122 but I am not sure. Just noticed the assessment above. Ouch. That's a lot of aircraft added to the lost column and not insignificant types.


The 2012 Taliban infiltration attack on Camp Bastion resulted in two US KIA and eight damaged or destroyed Harriers and one damaged C-130. That was the biggest US loss of aircraft on the ground since WWII and it pales in comparison what the Ukrainians just did to the Russians at Saky.

This attack is significant both in materiel destruction and psychological shock to the Russian civilIan population. This happened in front of the eyes of their upper middle class Muscovite vacationing class that has been swallowing huge amounts of propaganda about how well the special military operation is going.

BTW, Crimea is the only summer vacation destination in the world available to Russians anymore and the Ukes just blew the **** out of a target in the middle of the Russian Riviera.
Bravo, slow-clap, you da man Vlodomyr.
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74OA
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6:20p, 8/10/22
AG
More post-strike imagery. MESS
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Waffledynamics
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6:25p, 8/10/22
AG
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docb
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7:47p, 8/10/22
AG
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/10/2115774/-Ukraine-may-have-struck-a-Russian-airfield-in-Belarus?utm_campaign=recent

Ukes may have hit an airbase in Belarus.
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Gilligan
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In reply to Gilligan • 8:05p, 8/10/22
AG
Gilligan said:
MouthBQ98 said:
Look like SU-24 and TU-122 but I am not sure. Just noticed the assessment above. Ouch. That's a lot of aircraft added to the lost column and not insignificant types.
It would be a shame if a bunch of the pilots for those planes started pushing up sunflowers as well.
Being reported "at least 60 pilots and civilians" cargo 200 and 100 more cargo 300
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JB!98
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In reply to Gilligan • 10:19p, 8/10/22
AG
Gilligan said:
Gilligan said:
MouthBQ98 said:
Look like SU-24 and TU-122 but I am not sure. Just noticed the assessment above. Ouch. That's a lot of aircraft added to the lost column and not insignificant types.
It would be a shame if a bunch of the pilots for those planes started pushing up sunflowers as well.
Being reported "at least 60 pilots and civilians" cargo 200 and 100 more cargo 300


That's gonna leave a mark! Those guys aren't easily replaced.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Gilligan • 10:28p, 8/10/22
AG
Gilligan said:
Gilligan said:
MouthBQ98 said:
Look like SU-24 and TU-122 but I am not sure. Just noticed the assessment above. Ouch. That's a lot of aircraft added to the lost column and not insignificant types.
It would be a shame if a bunch of the pilots for those planes started pushing up sunflowers as well.
Being reported "at least 60 pilots and civilians" cargo 200 and 100 more cargo 300


Reported where? That seems quite optimistic.
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Waffledynamics
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5:03a, 8/11/22
AG
Quote:
Russian army shelling Pisky village near Donetsk with TOS-1A heavy flamethrower system


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-august-russian-army-shelling-pisky-village-near-donetsk

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74OA
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7:56a, 8/11/22
AG
Russia straining to find the manpower to replace its combat casualties. CULLS
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Proc92
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In reply to Gilligan • 8:01a, 8/11/22
Gilligan said:
Gilligan said:
MouthBQ98 said:
Look like SU-24 and TU-122 but I am not sure. Just noticed the assessment above. Ouch. That's a lot of aircraft added to the lost column and not insignificant types.
It would be a shame if a bunch of the pilots for those planes started pushing up sunflowers as well.
Being reported "at least 60 pilots and civilians" cargo 200 and 100 more cargo 300
I don't know what the 200, 100, and 300 mean here.
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