JFABNRGR said:
74OA said:
Re the airbase strike, why not a one-way drone mission? It's well within the TB2's range from Ukrainian-controlled territory, for example, and that would allow it to fly a circuitous low-level route all the way in to evade air defense radars.
I think this but different equipment; for arguments sake you could put antipersonnel munitions on the TB2 to attack aircraft on the ground and likely be very effective. I believe this would allow 4 hung and then run the TB2 into another giving you 5 almost simultaneous hits. Had this occurred at night or had the TB2 been able to fly in from the sun I think would be more credible but this looks like a pure day time attack.
How about 3-5 launched suicide drones from SOF/Partisan team on station. Some of those things can be carried in a backpack.
AGM88-ER/Gs also have that range and surely don't have to be antiradar guided.
No. This seems more like a ballistic missile attack.
There is significant damage across a very wide area. I doubt TB2's would make it this far. They could have the range, but they're slow and too easily shot down in this kind of environment. This would also likely require more than one, increasing the chances of detection. That seems like a waste of resources.
Loitering munitions don't pack the punch necessary for this, at least not the backpack kind. They could maybe hit a weapons or fuel storage area, by I doubt they actually set anything off. They have more anti-personnel and fragmentation warheads that aren't going to be powerful enough to trigger the high explosives in air dropped munitions. Larger munitions like the switchblade 600 might be able to do this, but they're much heavier at 50 lbs. The 600 doesn't have the range to strike from Ukrainian held territory, and I doubt they'd be sent to launch points behind Russian lines and risk capture. There are very few of them, and the opsec risk would be very high. Just too much risk.
I don't believe that version of the AGM-88 has entered production yet. Even if it had, I highly doubt it would be employed here. You would need several of them for this kind of attack, and the opsec risk is just too great. Failures or recovered parts could give information on capabilities and allow Russia or others plenty of time to try to devise counters.
A ballistic missile makes the most sense as it can carry a large warhead or a large number of submunitions capable of hitting spread out targets like parked aircraft, hangars, and weapons/fuel storage areas. Ukraine has also domestically produced such missiles, even if only in test rounds AFAIK. They could be more than willing to test such weapons on the battlefield because it's their fight and they have less to lose than we do if out shiny new toys don't work as expected and more to gain if they do.
