***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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sclaff
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Day 166, August 8. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast

https://wartranslated.com/day-166-august-8-summary-of-arestovych-and-feygin-daily-broadcast/

Kharkiv
Khakhiv was shelled once again. To the north west of the city the Russians attempt attacks, unsuccessful.

Izyum
On the Izyum direction, the Russians attempted to attack Husarivka, again unsuccessful. According to some reports, the Ukrainians have liberated Dovhen'ke. The Ukrainians are advancing on Izyum. A tactical encirclement of Russian troops is possible. Russian counterattacks yesterday failed. Arestovych highlights the importance of these offensive operations

Siversk
On the Sviersk direction, continued unsuccessful Russian advances towards Serebrianka.

Bakhmut
Bakhmut direction: Russians slowly closing in on Bakhmuts'ke. Pokrovs'ke has been captured by Russian troops. Advances towards Zaitseve. Difficult situation for us in this area around Kodema; a salient is forming and the enemy has advanced.

Avdiivka
Avdiivka to Mar'inka direction: nearly no Russian troops in this area, only so-called DPR troops. Attacks north and south of Avdiivka in an attempt to surround the town. Attempted attacks on Pisky. Situation is Pisky constantly swinging back and forth. Large concentration of artillery in that area from both sides. No Russian advance. Arestovych remarks that the Russian "glorious battle for Ukraine" has been reduced to a battle for a cow farm on the outskirts of Pisky. Russian attempt to advance on Mari'nka unsuccessful. Unsuccessful Russian counterattacks on the Vuhledar direction.

Kherson direction
Melitopol hit yesterday: 100+ Russian casualties, some officers.
Kherson direction: 3-4 BTGs of Russian VDV attempted an advance west of Snihurivka. We cannot say yet whether this is the main thrust of a Russian offensive or just a distraction. Arestovych believes that this is either a distraction or a probing attack. Attacks on Novohryhorivka, Russians are attempting to take the shortest route to Mykolaiv. Several BTGs brought over the river as reinforcements.
At least 4 S-300 and 2 Pantsir Russian AA systems have been destroyed by the Ukrainian air force in Kherson oblast using newly supplied missiles. Antonovsky bridge was hit during the night and is now heavy vehicles cannot use the bridge. Several storage depots have been destroyed in Davydiv Brid, Beryslav, Oleshky and so on.

Zaporizhzhia NPP situation
Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station: Arestovych remarks that the country who lived through Chernobyl would not shell a nuclear power station on their own territory. Arestovych believes that the Russian threat to blow up the power station is a Russian blackmail attempt to force the Ukrainians to negotiate. Ukraine will not negotiate. Arestovych believes that the Russians will not blow up the power station. Some sanctions may be imposed on Russia in the nuclear sector in response to these threats.

Other
Zaporozhzhia referendum: Arestovych believes this is another blackmail attempt. Russians fear a Ukrainian offensive in Zaporozhzhia more than one in Kherson.

Weapons package: Arestovych implies that NASAMS systems are already in Ukraine. Ukraine will continue to receive shipments of anti radiation missiles. A billion dollars [the value of the weapons shipment] is a lot, this will undoubtedly have an effect on the battlefield.

Russian casualties
Feygin brings up Pentagon 70-80k Russian casualties figure and comments that this appears to make AFU claims of 40k Russians killed credible. Arestovych notes that the Russians have an unusually high killed:wounded ratio as a result of poor medical assistance. He also says that L/DPR and Wagner casualties are not counted here. Russian units are reinforced with L/DPR conscripts.

Another wave of mobilisation has taken place in the L/DPR. People have been executed for refusing mobilisation. Arestovych says this is a tragic situation because Putin is forcing Ukrainians to go kill other Ukrainians.

Erdogan-Putin summit
Kadyrov was not included in the meeting despite Putin's wishes. Arestovych says that many in the west are unhappy with Turkiye's politics because of their undermining of NATO's united front against Russia. Arestovych says there will be consequences for Turkiye. Perhaps these actions will take place behind closed doors. So far Turkiye is the main beneficiary from this situation [the war].

docb
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benchmark said:

Interesting. Novofedorivka, Crimea is >130 miles behind the front lines. Begs the question ... was this a partisan or long range rocket attack?
Russia claims that it was due to some sort of accident. Well we all know they lie about everything so I'm quite sure that is not true. Maybe the long range HIMARS weapons have arrived? I would think that security at a military airbase would be tough for partisans to get around?
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russian ministry of defence says explosions of several aerial bombs as result of accident caused the fire and further explosions at airbase in Novofedorivka. No damage to aircraft


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-august-russian-ministry-of-defence-says-explosions-of-several

Yeah, not sure I believe that it was an accident just yet.
Ag In Ok
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docb said:

benchmark said:

Interesting. Novofedorivka, Crimea is >130 miles behind the front lines. Begs the question ... was this a partisan or long range rocket attack?
Russia claims that it was due to some sort of accident. Well we all know they lie about everything so I'm quite sure that is not true. Maybe the long range HIMARS weapons have arrived? I would think that security at a military airbase would be tough for partisans to get around?


So they would rather claim incompetence than concede a successful attack against their position?
docb
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Ag In Ok said:

docb said:

benchmark said:

Interesting. Novofedorivka, Crimea is >130 miles behind the front lines. Begs the question ... was this a partisan or long range rocket attack?
Russia claims that it was due to some sort of accident. Well we all know they lie about everything so I'm quite sure that is not true. Maybe the long range HIMARS weapons have arrived? I would think that security at a military airbase would be tough for partisans to get around?


So they would rather claim incompetence than concede a successful attack against their position?
Let's just say the Russians are very accident prone lately
ABATTBQ11
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It isn't exactly back of the warehouse, it's just not all of the shiny toys. If we went to war today, we'd be using a lot of what we're giving them.
Red1
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[Stop derailing this thread. -Staff]
Waffledynamics
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Keep your eyes on Bakhmut as things progress there. That is a key crossroads in the East that Russia has been trying hard to get to. One of our YouTube hosts, either Denys or Rob (from Speak The Truth) has likened its importance to Izyum. Russia wants to take it to help them get to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-august-violent-clashes-near-bakhmut-now
docb
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https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/wk7yng/compilation_video_of_crimea_attack/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Lots of good video of the Crimea strike. This **** is about to get very real for the Russians that thought they were safe.
Waffledynamics
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docb said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/wk7yng/compilation_video_of_crimea_attack/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Lots of good video of the Crimea strike. This **** is about to get very real for the Russians that thought they were safe.


For those of us who can't watch it: does it look like an accident like Russia claims?
FriscoKid
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Waffledynamics said:

docb said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/wk7yng/compilation_video_of_crimea_attack/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Lots of good video of the Crimea strike. This **** is about to get very real for the Russians that thought they were safe.


For those of us who can't watch it: does it look like an accident like Russia claims?
no
Hillary paid for warrant to spy on Trump.
Red1
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Red1 said:

[Stop derailing this thread. -Staff]
How am I derailing the thread? The concept of Revolution In Military Affairs is distasteful?
GAC06
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How about another post of definitions straight out of a DoD pub
74OA
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More on the big attack on Russia's Crimean airbase. BOOM
74OA
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Bucha massacre investigation wrapping up: "458 bodies, of which 419 bore markings they had been shot, tortured or bludgeoned to death."

DISGUSTING
Red1
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GAC06 said:

How about another post of definitions straight out of a DoD pub
Combined General Staff College. Yep I am remiss for using military history and the paradigms to explain current events.
ABATTBQ11
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Quote:

"As a result of the explosion, no one was injured. Aviation equipment at the airfield was not damaged," according to the MOD's statement. "Measures are being taken to extinguish the fire and find out the causes of the explosion. According to a report from the site, there was no fire impact on the bunded ammunition storage area at the airfield"


*cough* bull**** *cough*
74OA
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Despite bans, Russia finding ways to continue its disinformation WARFARE.
BlueSmoke
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It's not all disinformation - problem is anything that goes against the narrative is labeled as such to shut it down
Nobody cares. Work Harder
ABATTBQ11
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BlueSmoke said:

It's not all disinformation - problem is anything that goes against the narrative is labeled as such to shut it down


If Russia is the source, the only truth in their statements is wrapped in a lie. There is probably a lot of pro-Ukrainian disinformation as well, but Russia really takes the cake when it comes to propaganda. It's been their MO for the last 100 years.
EastSideAg2002
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ABATTBQ11 said:

BlueSmoke said:

It's not all disinformation - problem is anything that goes against the narrative is labeled as such to shut it down


If Russia is the source, the only truth in their statements is wrapped in a lie. There is probably a lot of pro-Ukrainian disinformation as well, but Russia really takes the cake when it comes to propaganda. It's been their MO for the last 100 years.
"There are four kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics...and then Russian Reporting"
JFABNRGR
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Quote:

"As a result of the explosion, no one was injured. Aviation equipment at the airfield was not damaged," according to the MOD's statement. "Measures are being taken to extinguish the fire and find out the causes of the explosion. According to a report from the site, there was no fire impact on the bunded ammunition storage area at the airfield"


*cough* bull**** *cough*
beat me to almost verbatim post.

This video clearly shows at least 3 fires ongoing prior to the big bang, possibly 4, separated left to right by several hundred meters. Highly unlikely somebody tossed a cigarette butt onto the pallet of volatile materials.

Appears to be coordinated. Very interesting attack, would like to see more and know how how but if I only get one I will take more attacks. Sure hope they lost some aircraft in that as well.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/wkag5d/fire_in_the_hole/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Starting to see hints that this was a UKR Grim2 or Grom2 missile attack but I think we would have more evidence of that. Looks like launcher would fire two at at time, the payload is massive, and we have no evidence of missile streaks prior to impact. I hope so but, I think other at this time.

http://www.military-today.com/missiles/grom_ballistic_missile.htm

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/wk7ttk/the_new_york_times_quotes_a_ukrainian_source_who/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Waffledynamics
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Red1 said:

GAC06 said:

How about another post of definitions straight out of a DoD pub
Combined General Staff College


Your posts and insights are appreciated, but the conversation keeps straying off into history debates and hypotheticals as if Ukraine could wave a magic wand and do something ideal. Can you give insight taking into account Ukraine's ability or inability to do such operations? You seem to have the knowledge for in depth analysis, too.
AgLA06
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JFABNRGR said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

Quote:

"As a result of the explosion, no one was injured. Aviation equipment at the airfield was not damaged," according to the MOD's statement. "Measures are being taken to extinguish the fire and find out the causes of the explosion. According to a report from the site, there was no fire impact on the bunded ammunition storage area at the airfield"


*cough* bull**** *cough*
beat me to almost verbatim post.

This video clearly shows at least 3 fires ongoing prior to the big bang, possibly 4, separated left to right by several hundred meters. Highly unlikely somebody tossed a cigarette butt onto the pallet of volatile materials.

Appears to be coordinated. Very interesting attack, would like to see more and know how how but if I only get one I will take more attacks. Sure hope they lost some aircraft in that as well.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/wkag5d/fire_in_the_hole/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
I honestly am starting to think that Ukraine may not be intending to attack in the south. Just put a big enough show of force and threat that Russia pulls out. They've already pulled most of the black sea fleet. I think this was just another nudge to suggest they exit out the back door.

In reality if Russia can't have a sea base or airfield in Crimea without Ukraine hitting it at will, they're F'ed. No ability to support or supply any troops in the region.
docb
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It will be interesting to see how many Russian aircraft were destroyed at that air base. Already a very short clip showing a Russian bomber destroyed.
JFABNRGR
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docb said:

It will be interesting to see how many Russian aircraft were destroyed at that air base. Already a very short clip showing a Russian bomber destroyed.
I suspect your referencing this one. Says its verified. Looks fresh.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/wkc6fq/aftermath_footage_from_the_russian_airbase_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

One thing is for sure there are 4 distinctly different smoke colors from those explosions. Which IMO is a good thing.
P.U.T.U
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That was either self destruction (very unlikely but hey it's Russia), SOF way behind enemy lines, or the Grim 2 is no longer in development stage. If the Grim 2 really does have a 500km range that opens up a lot of military bases in Russia
74OA
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Re the airbase strike, why not a one-way drone mission? It's well within the TB2's range from Ukrainian-controlled territory, for example, and that would allow it to fly a circuitous low-level route all the way in to evade air defense radars.
Red1
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Waffledynamics said:

Red1 said:

GAC06 said:

How about another post of definitions straight out of a DoD pub
Combined General Staff College


Your posts and insights are appreciated, but the conversation keeps straying off into history debates and hypotheticals as if Ukraine could wave a magic wand and do something ideal. Can you give insight taking into account Ukraine's ability or inability to do such operations? You seem to have the knowledge for in depth analysis.
I tie military history and paradigms to Ukraine. For example the RMA for Ukraine is all their precision fires. That is a significant advantage for them because Russia does not have that RMA. It is playing a significant role in the war now as they shape the future by destroying supply and ammo depots, and command centers. That RMA may be the turning point of the war.

On another post I cited how the US and England made the German Army in N Africa wither on the vine by controlling the Mediterranean Sea which is what Ukraine is trying to do against the 42nd Division by cutting off logistics.

I also cited Stalingrad in regard to the Germans pummeling cities. The German bombing of Stalingrad did not level most of the buildings. The vertical structures became good places for Russian Infantry and Snipers. Military officers use military history to paint the picture now. I can't say it any simpler. I will leave it at that. I don't want to cause friction so I will stop imposing. It was fun. I like military history and will post elsewhere.
2000AgPhD
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JFABNRGR said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

Quote:

"As a result of the explosion, no one was injured. Aviation equipment at the airfield was not damaged," according to the MOD's statement. "Measures are being taken to extinguish the fire and find out the causes of the explosion. According to a report from the site, there was no fire impact on the bunded ammunition storage area at the airfield"


*cough* bull**** *cough*
beat me to almost verbatim post.

This video clearly shows at least 3 fires ongoing prior to the big bang, possibly 4, separated left to right by several hundred meters. Highly unlikely somebody tossed a cigarette butt onto the pallet of volatile materials.

Appears to be coordinated. Very interesting attack, would like to see more and know how how but if I only get one I will take more attacks. Sure hope they lost some aircraft in that as well.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/wkag5d/fire_in_the_hole/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Starting to see hints that this was a UKR Grim2 or Grom2 missile attack but I think we would have more evidence of that. Looks like launcher would fire two at at time, the payload is massive, and we have no evidence of missile streaks prior to impact. I hope so but, I think other at this time.

http://www.military-today.com/missiles/grom_ballistic_missile.htm

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/wk7ttk/the_new_york_times_quotes_a_ukrainian_source_who/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
I'll invoke the 72 hour rule to see what actually happened there, but one thing is for certain: This was most definitely NOT an accident as the Soviets claim.
txags92
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2000AgPhD said:

JFABNRGR said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

Quote:

"As a result of the explosion, no one was injured. Aviation equipment at the airfield was not damaged," according to the MOD's statement. "Measures are being taken to extinguish the fire and find out the causes of the explosion. According to a report from the site, there was no fire impact on the bunded ammunition storage area at the airfield"


*cough* bull**** *cough*
beat me to almost verbatim post.

This video clearly shows at least 3 fires ongoing prior to the big bang, possibly 4, separated left to right by several hundred meters. Highly unlikely somebody tossed a cigarette butt onto the pallet of volatile materials.

Appears to be coordinated. Very interesting attack, would like to see more and know how how but if I only get one I will take more attacks. Sure hope they lost some aircraft in that as well.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/wkag5d/fire_in_the_hole/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Starting to see hints that this was a UKR Grim2 or Grom2 missile attack but I think we would have more evidence of that. Looks like launcher would fire two at at time, the payload is massive, and we have no evidence of missile streaks prior to impact. I hope so but, I think other at this time.

http://www.military-today.com/missiles/grom_ballistic_missile.htm

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/wk7ttk/the_new_york_times_quotes_a_ukrainian_source_who/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
I'll invoke the 72 hour rule to see what actually happened there, but one thing is for certain: This was most definitely NOT an accident as the Soviets claim.
The Russians claimed the Moskva sinking as an "accident" at first too. If Ukraine is smart, they will say absolutely nothing about how they did it and let the orcs cower in their holes wondering which threat to look for next.
JFABNRGR
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74OA said:

Re the airbase strike, why not a one-way drone mission? It's well within the TB2's range from Ukrainian-controlled territory, for example, and that would allow it to fly a circuitous low-level route all the way in to evade air defense radars.
I think this but different equipment; for arguments sake you could put antipersonnel munitions on the TB2 to attack aircraft on the ground and likely be very effective. I believe this would allow 4 hung and then run the TB2 into another giving you 5 almost simultaneous hits. Had this occurred at night or had the TB2 been able to fly in from the sun I think would be more credible but this looks like a pure day time attack.

How about 3-5 launched suicide drones from SOF/Partisan team on station. Some of those things can be carried in a backpack.

AGM88-ER/Gs also have that range and surely don't have to be antiradar guided.
ABATTBQ11
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JFABNRGR said:

docb said:

It will be interesting to see how many Russian aircraft were destroyed at that air base. Already a very short clip showing a Russian bomber destroyed.
I suspect your referencing this one. Says its verified. Looks fresh.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/wkc6fq/aftermath_footage_from_the_russian_airbase_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

One thing is for sure there are 4 distinctly different smoke colors from those explosions. Which IMO is a good thing.


If that's real, I think there's only two places on that airfield that wild be based on the Google satellite imagery. Both have 6-8 fighters parked there on maps. Solid chance they just lost a much of aircraft.
P.U.T.U
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74OA said:

Re the airbase strike, why not a one-way drone mission? It's well within the TB2's range from Ukrainian-controlled territory, for example, and that would allow it to fly a circuitous low-level route all the way in to evade air defense radars.
That is flying for a long time in Russia controlled territory and in order to fly low enough to avoid radar it would be seen by Russian troops. Not saying it is not an option but that is a far way. Then again they did use the TB2 to destroy the oil depots inside of Russia and also sunk the Moskva. But those were done at night and this one looked to be done during the day
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-airbase-in-crimea-erupts-in-massive-explosions


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-august-explosions-reported-in-kyrylivka-of-zaporizhzhia



Not as far as Crimea, but still far behind the frontlines. This is near the coast of the Sea of Azov.
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