Eliminatus said:

---

AlaskanAg99 said:

---

Fox News reporting the Chechen's may open a 2nd front. Russia is weak and as they draw resources from other areas to support their BS in Ukraine, this may start getting hot elsewhere.

---

Wait, the implication of your post is the Chechens will open up a front AGAINST Russia?

---

That's what the article is suggesting.

Two battalions can stir some **** up, but no idea how well armed and prepped kadryovs fighters (that aren't in Ukraine). If they pop off and Georgia gets grabby, that would draw attention. Don't think they will make gains, but certainly draw return fire. It would be especially difficult should Georgia move as the Russians are certainly embedded into the mounts side.

Ag8556 said:

---

I wonder how effective another round of artillery rounds would be now that the bridge structure has some holes and cracking in the span. I would think you would at least cause existing cracks in the span to run farther from their initial starting point.

At the very least, it could create more structural damage to make a 2nd round of HIMARs strikes even more effective.

---

Seeing cars travelling over the damaged bridge, it looks like it could stand another hit or two. Maybe the damage is such that heavy trucks can't cross, but given the obvious value the Russians place on the lives of their soldiers, they'd probably send them across anyway. A i said, another few rounds in the same spot would be nice.

74OA said:

---

Eliminatus said:

---

AlaskanAg99 said:

---

Fox News reporting the Chechen's may open a 2nd front. Russia is weak and as they draw resources from other areas to support their BS in Ukraine, this may start getting hot elsewhere.

---

Wait, the implication of your post is the Chechens will open up a front AGAINST Russia?

---

Not by Russia's stooge Chechen government, but an uprising by the sizeable number of Chechens who still bitterly hate the Russians for destroying their country.

---

My understanding is that the Russians are paying Kadyrov millions and millions per year to be their repressive Russian puppet. But buying people off doesn't always mean they remain paid off and no threat forever. If he sees an opening? And has recently been supplied with more Russian arms?

OTOH, Chechens may just take Kadyrov out and the Russian puppet government collapses?

74OA said:

---

Eliminatus said:

---

AlaskanAg99 said:

---

Fox News reporting the Chechen's may open a 2nd front. Russia is weak and as they draw resources from other areas to support their BS in Ukraine, this may start getting hot elsewhere.

---

Wait, the implication of your post is the Chechens will open up a front AGAINST Russia?

---

Not by Russia's stooge Chechen government, but an uprising by the sizeable number of Chechens who still bitterly hate the Russians for destroying their country.

---

Ah, I see the article linked now.

Still not clear as to the location of a possible fight though. Most of us know that Chechnya has a strong rebel faction and even has many individuals that have fought/fighting for the Ukes but the main government forces are still pro Russia and I don't see how a second front can be opened without sparking another full fledged civil war in Chechnya. Which is not opening another front against Russia but more just occupying an ally and possibly drawing some Russian forces?

The nuance of this is not clear at all to me unless I am missing something obvious. This reads more as a play for an internal coup than a concerted effort to fight against Russia directly?

Any other takes out there or someone correct me?

aggiehawg said:

---

74OA said:

---

Eliminatus said:

---

AlaskanAg99 said:

---

Fox News reporting the Chechen's may open a 2nd front. Russia is weak and as they draw resources from other areas to support their BS in Ukraine, this may start getting hot elsewhere.

---

Wait, the implication of your post is the Chechens will open up a front AGAINST Russia?

---

Not by Russia's stooge Chechen government, but an uprising by the sizeable number of Chechens who still bitterly hate the Russians for destroying their country.

---

My understanding is that the Russians are paying Kadyrov millions and millions per year to be their repressive Russian puppet. But buying people off doesn't always mean they remain paid off and no threat forever. If he sees an opening? And has recently been supplied with more Russian arms?

OTOH, Chechens may just take Kadyrov out and the Russian puppet government collapses?

---

Based on their videos, I don't think Kadyrov's guys are a threat to any other armed formation. I'd think it would be more likely to see other Chechen units rise up and take their country back while Kadyrov and his boys are over in Ukraine circle jerking each other over the remains of the Azovsteel plant.

Quote:

---

Based on their videos, I don't think Kadyrov's guys are a threat to any other armed formation. I'd think it would be more likely to see other Chechen units rise up and take their country back while Kadyrov and his boys are over in Ukraine circle jerking each other over the remains of the Azovsteel plant.

---

Earlier in the war, Kadyrov would do selfies of him supposedly inside Ukraine only to be sighted hours later still in Chechnya or even in Moscow. His elite teams were taking heavy hits but he wasn't there.

GAC06 said:

---

Turns out inertially guided missiles can hit a bridge just fine. Imagine that.

---

About what you'd expect for GPS/inertial. But not accurate enough to directly target a load carrying structural element ... in this case, one of the 4 post-tensioned concrete girders. Very skeptical a 200 lb warhead is large enough anyway - even with a lucky direct hit. Also doubtful ATACMS with a 500 lb warhead will produce a much different result unless one gets lucky and wins the golden-BB award.

Since the main structure seems to be under the road surface, that's about as accurate as you can expect from anything coming from the air

AlaskanAg99 said:

---

Fox News reporting the Chechen's may open a 2nd front. Russia is weak and as they draw resources from other areas to support their BS in Ukraine, this may start getting hot elsewhere.

---

if they were smart, the Georgians and the Kazakhs and the Syrian Democratic Forces would be getting ready for fall offensives..

Ag8556 said:

---

I wonder how effective another round of artillery rounds would be now that the bridge structure has some holes and cracking in the span. I would think you would at least cause existing cracks in the span to run farther from their initial starting point.

At the very least, it could create more structural damage to make a 2nd round of HIMARs strikes even more effective.

---

the correct tactical position would be to wait until the next Russkie supply convoy trundles onto that bridge,

then launch everything you have at them.

Quote:

---

Explosions in Enerhodar

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-july-explosions-in-enerhodar

Видео с места подрыва пердаков орков в Энергодаре. pic.twitter.com/HTx7Qnk9SD

— 𝕺𝖑𝖉𝖗𝖆𝖛𝖊𝖓 (@Oldraven6) July 20, 2022

This is across the river, Southeast from Nikopol. About time we see something on the Russia-occupied side of the river there.

15 hours ago per LiveUAMap.

Quote:

---

Another missile or artillery strike at Antonivksy bridge in Kherson this morning

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-july-another-missile-or-artillery-strike-at-antonivksy

Twitter video link.

Posted it as a link because it's age restricted. Apparently, that was causing the display problems and was discovered several pages back.

Quote:

---

According to occupation authorities in parts of Kherson region Antonivsky bridge could be closed for traffic as significant damaged caused in missile strike this morning

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-july-according-to-occupation-authorities-in-parts-of-kherson

Quote:

---

US will send four more HIMARS to Ukraine, announces @SecDef

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-july-us-will-send-four-more-himars-to-ukraine-announces

Activity all along the line, but it seems there was a particularly concentrated push reported 9 hours ago as I type this. I won't bother posting all of the links, but here are some screenshots from LiveUaMap.

Broader view of the line:


East:


Kharkiv area:

Kherson region having some more activity.

Quote:

---

Kherson: air defence responding to possible missile attack, with some missile hits

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-july-kherson-air-defence-responding-to-possible-missile

And down on the coast, South of Kherson again.

Quote:

---

Explosions at ammunition warehouses in Skadovsk

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-july-explosions-at-ammunition-warehouses-in-skadovsk

Quote:

---

Josep Borrell: EU Member States agreed to mobilise 5th tranche of military assistance of 500M to further support Ukraine's Armed Forces. EU remains focused and steadfast in its support for Ukraine, together with partners

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-july-josep-borrell-eu-member-states-agreed-to-mobilise

Emotional moment today as one of the longest-serving former members of the U.N. Human Rights Council (left) meets one of the newest members of the U.N. Women's Rights Commission. pic.twitter.com/XOA89jJ5tX

— Hillel Neuer (@HillelNeuer) July 19, 2022

Interesting if true.

I have been told Antonovskiy Bridge was hit by Excalibur, not GMLRS. The Excalibur have a range of at least 40km, up to 60km (70 in testing), the blue circle indicates 40km. pic.twitter.com/JtZGVRzdc5

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) July 20, 2022

Quote:

---

Explosions reported in Melitopol'

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-july-explosions-reported-in-melitopol

Quote:

---

CIA Director: The total Russian death toll in Ukraine war is estimated at 15,000, and the number of injured is three times higher

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-july-cia-director-the-total-russian-death-toll-in-ukraine

Waffledynamics said:

---

Quote:

---

CIA Director: The total Russian death toll in Ukraine war is estimated at 15,000, and the number of injured is three times higher

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-july-cia-director-the-total-russian-death-toll-in-ukraine

---

This is the most conservative estimate I have seen, and doesn't explain the (alleged) attrition we are witnessing (including the extended operational pauses)

Waffledynamics said:

---

Quote:

---

CIA Director: The total Russian death toll in Ukraine war is estimated at 15,000, and the number of injured is three times higher

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-july-cia-director-the-total-russian-death-toll-in-ukraine

---

Was that CIA estimate from late April? I find that estimate to be very low considering what we have seen from others.

txags92 said:

---

Waffledynamics said:

---

Quote:

---

CIA Director: The total Russian death toll in Ukraine war is estimated at 15,000, and the number of injured is three times higher

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-july-cia-director-the-total-russian-death-toll-in-ukraine

---

Was that CIA estimate from late April? I find that estimate to be very low considering what we have seen from others.

---

It was from LiveUaMap today. It's definitely an outlier, but I felt it worth noting.

txags92 said:

---

Waffledynamics said:

---

Quote:

---

CIA Director: The total Russian death toll in Ukraine war is estimated at 15,000, and the number of injured is three times higher

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-july-cia-director-the-total-russian-death-toll-in-ukraine

---

Was that CIA estimate from late April? I find that estimate to be very low considering what we have seen from others.

---

If this number is true than how many have deserted and how many are pows?

Watched a video of a Russian tank driving down the road with the turret / barrel on the right side knocking down light poles and small trees. Then it was hit and destroyed.

My question - isn't knocking down light poles and small trees bad for the barrel?

No

Gilligan said:

---

Watched a video of a Russian tank driving down the road with the turret / barrel on the right side knocking down light poles and small trees. Then it was hit and destroyed.

My question - isn't knocking down light poles and small trees bad for the barrel?

---

It's not good for it. It seems that the Russians have been forced to crew their tanks with only a driver and commander going back as far as March. When they get in contact, the tank commander moves over to the gunner's position but that doesn't work too well in practice.

So is there some strategic advantage to knocking down light poles (which likely aren't currently working) or is this just the orcs being *******s?

black_ice said:

---

No

---

You're only half full of crap. It will totally jack up the turret's traverse and elevation system.

You get busy fighting the vehicle and things happen. Unless your head is out of the turret, you are only seeing the reticle in the gun's site.

Also, with regards to the 15K KIA and 45K WIA estimates, that's roughly 50% of the initial Russian invasion force. Those are numbers that the world hasn't likely seen since Korea ~1951-52.

I agree. I sort of wonder what the daily / weekly count is now.

Also, the russians have conscripted people from occupied Ukraine. I am not sure if they are included in the 60k of combat ineffective.